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The Effect of Scoring on Making the Playoffs
Orlando City just barely missed out on the playoffs in its inaugural year, and the club has made it clear that missing out on a playoff berth in year two is unacceptable. While the club can undoubtedly improve in certain areas, let's take a look at goal scoring and see if scoring lots of goals ultimately results in a trip to the playoffs.
First let's take a look at the numbers:
| Team | Final Rank | Goals | Rank | Attempts | Goal/Attempt % | Rank | GD | Rank |
| New York Red Bulls | 1 | 62 | 1 | 476 | 13.02 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Columbus Crew | 2 | 58 | 2 | 464 | 12.5 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Montreal Impact | 3 | 48 | 5 | 434 | 11.1 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| D.C. United | 4 | 43 | 8 | 373 | 11.5 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| N.E. Revolution | 5 | 48 | 5 | 388 | 12.37 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Toronto F.C. | 6 | 58 | 2 | 468 | 12.39 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Orlando City SC | 7 | 46 | 7 | 382 | 12 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| New York City FC | 8 | 49 | 4 | 446 | 10.98 | 9 | -9 | 7 |
| Philadephia Union | 9 | 42 | 10 | 381 | 11.02 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| Chicago Fire | 10 | 43 | 8 | 467 | 9.2 | 10 | -15 | 10 |
Now let's break it down further.
Total Goals
The New York Red Bulls and Columbus Crew scored the most and finished at the top of the table. After that, the impact of total goals falls away quite a bit. Toronto was tied for second in total goals, and only made it to the first round. Additionally, New York City FC was ranked fourth in total goals, but finished eighth overall. So while scoring goals certainly helps, it's not quite the only thing that matters.
Scoring Percentage (Goals/Total Shots)
Here again the Red Bulls and Crew finished top two, respectively. After that, each team's scoring percentage rankings relative to how they finished the season are a bit more mixed. Orlando City made the top five while missing the playoffs, and Montreal was seventh and earned a spot. That was the only two rankings that don't match the assortment of playoff eligible teams. Scoring percentage, then, seems to be a better indicator than total goals.
Goal Differential
Finally, let's look at goal differential. Once again, the Red Bulls and Crew finish one-two. Looking at the rest of the top six finishers, all of those teams also finished in the top six of goal differential. There are only two goals separating spots four through six, meaning their order in those spots isn't very significant. However, when we look at those that finished below the red line, they all had significantly negative goal differentials.
Conclusion
Looking at the numbers, it would seem that while all goals are important, and that a higher scoring percentage helps, it's goal differential that may make the difference in getting into the playoffs or not. While strikers get much of the glory, it takes a whole team to accomplish our objective this coming season. That is why each pick, trade, international call up, and injury matters. Keep that in mind as you examine the moves that Orlando City is making this off-season.