View from the End Line: Analyzing the 2019 Crystal Ball Predictions

It is time to take a moment and reflect on just how well, or poorly, I did in predicting the outcomes of Orlando City SC matches this season. In case you don’t remember, I tried to keep my drink of choice the same, enjoying just two fingers (but as the season progressed it might have gone to three or four) of Bulleit Rye over a single piece of ice; however, I did change divination tools this season.

The question remains, do I need to scour Amazon for a new piece of equipment, or did the eastern European looking glass do its job? First, let’s recap, quickly what I thought would happen this season. As a note, predictions below also include U.S. Open Cup matches.

March Predictions

• Predicted: W-D-W-L-W
• Actual: D-D-L-W-L
• Correct predictions: 1/5

April Predictions

• Predicted: W-W-W-D
• Actual: W-L-W-D
• Correct predictions: 3/4

May Predictions

• Predicted: W-D-L-W
• Actual: D-D-W-L
• Correct predictions: 1/4

June Predictions

• Predicted: L-D
• Actual: L-W
• Correct predictions: 1/2

July Predictions

• Predicted: W-L-W-W-W-W-W
• Actual: L-D-W-W-D-L-L
• Correct predictions: 2/7

August Predictions

• Predicted: W-W-D-W-W-D
• Actual: W-L-D-W-L-L
• Correct predictions: 3/6

September Predictions

• Predicted: L-W-W-W
• Actual: D-D-L-D
• Correct predictions: 0/4

Decision Day

• Predicted: W
• Actual: L
• Correct predictions: 0/1

So math gets a little tough here as we begin to add things up. I missed a couple predictions for regular season matches, so the numbers will not add up to 34. What is important here is my overall ability to predict correctly whether the Lions would win, lose, or draw. Knowing that that is the criteria by which I will judge my performance, I failed pretty badly. I only predicted correctly 33.33% of the matches for which I made predictions. Of the 66.67% I missed, 77.3% of those were predicted wins that were draws/losses or predicted draws that ended in a loss. In other words, I had almost no idea what I was doing this season. There were a few bright spots, and I am always pleased to be wrong when it looks like there’s a loss on the horizon and the team captures points. Unfortunately, that was a rarity this season.

Optimism was, obviously, a little high again this season. The predictions were off from the beginning of the season, but once the summer doldrums hit, I should have started to give in to my rational feelings just a bit more, and not let my heart keep driving things. I have lived my life as an optimist, always veering wide of the pessimist path, but this club is certainly deserving of a shift in thought. More importantly, it is obvious that I will be on the hunt for a different device to practice my divination.

I will be waiting to see how the roster pans out for 2020, as well as waiting to see who will take the reins. I see no point in trying to nail down a device to view the future with so many variables in place. No coach, no idea on the roster, and months and months of rumors and speculation that started the day after the final match. I will be putting aside my psychic abilities for the time being, as I want no part of feeding into the mass hysteria that will be the off-season.

How did you do this season in your predictions? Care to share your preferred device to help you make your predictions? Are you reading tea leaves? Throwing bones, by chance? Tantric meditation? Throwing spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks? Let us know in the comments below, and let me know how you think I did.