Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Seattle Sounders

Another Orlando City match is almost upon us as the Lions will try to get back to winning ways after a pair of frustrating results in the team’s last two games. Tomorrow, OCSC will hit the road to take on the Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field.

A match against Seattle means I spoke to Dave Clark, founder of SBNation’s Sounder at Heart. As always, Dave was a great help in getting us caught up on a team that the Lions don’t face all that often. I also answered some of Dave’s questions, which you can find over at their place.

Heber arrived during the off-season from NYCFC. How has he performed so far?

Dave Clark: Héber started the season looking as if he was an extraordinary bench option who could score 10+ goals offering a mix of holdup play, vision, and poaching. He still seems to have all of that, but he’s added bad luck and misfortune. In a loss to Sporting Kansas City he had four shot-creating actions. In a loss to Austin he had seven. He hasn’t scored since those first two matches despite having an xG of 5.9. There’s still reason to think he can be good, but first he’s got to be average.

Stefan Frei has played in 19 games and kept clean sheets in nine of them. What’s made him and the Sounders defense so difficult to score against?

DC: The defense is the reason that the season isn’t completely lost. The adjustment to have Nouhou mostly defend, to start Jackson Ragen in just his second year of pro play, and a healthy João Paulo have combined to cut down on scoring opportunities compared to last year. Seattle may be more prone to give up funky goals — deflections into the net feel more common here. That could also just be the only way to break through what has been a strong defense, comparable only to the top teams from the east and best in the west.

Seattle occupies its typical place near the top of the Western Conference. In your opinion, what’s been the biggest reason for the team’s success this year?

DC: After just giving credit to the defense, I must make a minor correction — the number one reason why Seattle is still near the top of the West is because of the opening season run and Jordan Morris’ explosion in the first two months of the year. The 6-2-2 start to 2023 gave hopes to a Supporters Shield run, the offense was mighty, and the defense pure. Morris had eight goals during that stretch and forced defenses to treat him like an MVP candidate. Jordan’s gone dry and the team couldn’t keep afloat through an injury crisis and double-game weeks. From the start of May the team is 2-5-2, -5 mostly playing well, but losing.

Are there any players who will be unavailable for selection due to injuries, call-ups, suspensions, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

DC: The Gold Cup and MLS have cursed Seattle to losing Jordan Morris, Cristian Roldan, and Alex Roldan for a few weeks. Only Alex has a strong replacement, as Cody Baker looks to be rotational quality despite starting the season with Tacoma Defiance.

Injuries are a minor issue. Backup CB Xavi Arreaga got injured while on international duty with Ecuador, Ethan Dobbelaere reinjured his hamstring while playing for Defiance, and Sota Kitahara is still out with a quad injury. None of those three play regularly.

Stefan Frei; Nouhou, Jackson Ragen, Yeimar, Cody Baker; Joshua Atencio, João Paulo; Léo Chú, Albert Rusnák, Nicolas Lodeiro; Raul Ruidíaz.

I don’t normally do predictions, but y’all asked me on the PawedCast too and there I said 1-1.

Thank you to Dave for his assistance in familiarizing us with Seattle. Vamos Orlando!