Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Atlanta United

It’s Friday party people, and that means that another Orlando City game is right around the corner. Tomorrow’s match is a big one, as the Lions face off against Atlanta United. OCSC needs to rebound after a brutal outing last week against Real Salt Lake, and it has a great chance to do so against a rival which occupies the place above it in the Eastern Conference standings.

A visit to Atlanta means I spoke to David McFarland, one of the contributors over at Dirty South Soccer. As usual, David was very helpful in getting us caught up to speed on the Five Stripes, and we appreciate his assistance.

One of the things you touched on when we spoke back in May was Atlanta’s depth being an issue. With that being the case, what was the reaction to Franco Ibarra being loaned out, and how does it affect things on the field for the Five Stripes?

David McFarland: While Ibarra leaving is quite a surprise (he’d been Atlanta’s best midfielder so far), the imminent arrival of Frenchman Tristan Muyumba is a like-for-like switch, so the midfield numbers remain the same. The real problem is losing a quality player like Ibarra instead of an underperforming one such as Santiago Sosa or Matheus Rossetto. Until one of those two is replaced, Atlanta’s midfield will remain mediocre. As for depth, the lack of a suitable backup for Giorgos Giakoumakis, who’s dealt with a recurring hamstring problem, is Atlanta’s main concern, although they could also use center back reinforcements if the back three formation stays.  

Since a May 13 loss to Charlotte, Atlanta has only lost twice in 11 matches. What’s been the biggest reason for this stretch of form?

DM: A few too many of those have been draws, but Atlanta has definitely made some marginal improvements in that time. The biggest of which has been a newfound defensive stability thanks to the switch to a back three formation: 3-4-2-1 to be exact. Almada and Giakoumakis can still wreak havoc up front, but it limits the effect of Atlanta’s shortage of functional wingers, thus giving more freedom to Caleb Wiley and Brooks Lennon on the wings. The three center backs have helped to keep clean sheets against Philadelphia and Montreal even without Miles Robinson.

Atlanta’s given up 37 goals, which is the most of any team above the playoff line, and second-most in the league. Is that a concern at all, or are you confident that the goal scoring can mitigate those numbers?

DM: If you asked me this three weeks ago I would have said the poor defense was sure to tank the season, but as previously mentioned, the formation change has alleviated some of those problems (but not all, as a midweek loss to New England showed). I think Atlanta’s goal scoring is only going to go so far, as Almada and Giakoumakis have almost no help whatsoever and can’t carry the team on their backs every week. A TAM or DP addition to the front line sure would change that though.

Are there any players that will be unavailable for selection due to injury, suspension, call-ups, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

DM: Giakoumakis is questionable with injury and Robinson only just returned from the USMNT Thursday, so I’m not sure they’ll be starting. In that case, I’ll go with a 3-4-2-1 with: Brad Guzan; Ronald Hernandez, Luis Abram, Juan Jose Sanchez Purata; Caleb Wiley, Santiago Sosa, Amar Sejdic, Brooks Lennon; Thiago Almada, Derrick Etienne; Miguel Berry.

Atlanta will win 2-0 thanks to yet another Almada masterclass.

Thanks again to David for helping refamiliarize us with Atlanta ahead of tomorrow’s match. Vamos Orlando!