Evaluating Orlando City’s Standing in the Eastern Conference

I know that we’re all disappointed with Orlando City’s cup competition performance this year, but repeating as U.S. Open Cup champs or beating Miami, MLS, Apple TV+, Adidas, and negligent officiating is a very hard thing to do. Rather than dwell on that, I decided to look at where the Lions are so far in the MLS regular season and the Eastern Conference as compared to last year at the same time.

I understand that the Leagues Cup results might lead one to think Orlando City is not in a good spot, or that the club is not ready for the rest of the regular season, but I don’t think that is the case and it’s important to remember the Lions won their group. Let’s look at where the club is currently.

Orlando City sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 10-6-7 and a total of 37 points. Additionally, the Lions are only one point behind fourth-place Nashville SC with a game in hand. After 23 matches in 2022, the Lions had a record of 8-9-6, with a total of 30 points.

Not only is the record better, but Orlando City is scoring more goals, and is not allowing as many goals. So far in 2023, the Lions have scored 34 goals and conceded 28 for a plus-six goal differential. Compare that to 2022, when through 23 matches Orlando City had scored 27 goals and allowed 33 goals for a minus-six goal differential. That is a 12-goal improvement, year over year.

Of the 11 matches left in the regular season, 10 are against Eastern Conference opponents — the exception being St. Louis City FC. Of those 10 matches, seven are against clubs currently below Orlando City in the standings. That doesn’t mean the Lions will win all of those matches, but it does mean the club has faced tougher opponents in the first two-thirds of the season. 

The seven clubs lower than Orlando City are (in order of match): the Chicago Fire, Charlotte FC, the Columbus Crew, New York City FC, Inter Miami, CF Montreal, and Toronto FC. Four of those matches are away, and three are at home. The matches against three clubs currently ranked higher than Orlando City are against FC Cincinnati, Nashville SC, and the New England Revolution with two on the road, and the one against the Revs at home.

Orlando City has a record of 3-4-3 against those 10 clubs so far this season, but some of those matches were played while the club was still breaking in new players. Orlando City also out-scored those opponents, 15-13. There’s no guarantee that the Lions will fare better, but with the emergence of Duncan McGuire and the return of Junior Urso, I like the odds.

If Orlando City can pick back up in the regular season where it left off — winning — then the Lions can improve on their 14-14-6 regular-season record from a year ago. If the club keeps scoring and playing good defense, Orlando City can improve on the 44 goals scored and 53 allowed with a minus-nine goal differential from last season. 

There are certainly more challenges in the coming weeks, given that there are more away matches than home matches, and the Inter Miami circus comes to Exploria Stadium in September, but Orlando City has a chance to finish the 2023 regular season strong.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.