Predicting Orlando City’s September Matches

Once Major League Soccer returns to play following the current international break, we will officially be in the home stretch of the season. Orlando City will play seven games to close out the 2023 regular season, with four of them taking place during the back half of September. I’m going to take a crack at predicting those four games, three of which will take place at the comfortable confines of Exploria Stadium.

Sept. 16 — vs. Columbus Crew

All of the matches are important at this stage of the season, but this one carries added weight for several reasons. For starters, it’s the first game back after a two-week layoff, and a strong performance and good result might very well set the tone for the rest of the run-in. In addition, Columbus sits two points behind the Lions in fifth place, making this one a “six-pointer” if you will. We already know that OCSC will be without Wilder Cartagena due to a red card suspension, and there’s no telling if Antonio Carlos and Gaston Gonzalez will be fit by then. The Crew, like Orlando, are in pretty good form and won three of their four games coming back from the Leagues Cup break, so this is not going to be an easy game by any means. However, I think the Lions are going to be really up for this one, and already showed themselves to be capable of getting a result against the Crew earlier this year.

Prediction: 2-1 Orlando City.

Sept. 20 — at New York City FC

This one has all the makings of a horror show. Playing on short rest against an NYCFC team that gave Orlando plenty of trouble earlier in the year, plus playing on the baseball diamond at Citi Field? Then add in the fact that OCSC will be playing Miami at home the following Sunday in a match that’s almost certainly been circled on the calendar since the Herons bounced Orlando from Leagues Cup in painful and controversial fashion. I don’t like anything about this game, and it feels like one that Oscar Pareja might take a punt on lineup-wise to try to keep key players fresh and ready for the following game. NYCFC won’t have Maxi Moralez due to an ACL tear, and the team has struggled this year, but I don’t think it’ll matter in this one.

Prediction: 2-0 NYCFC.

Sept. 24 — vs. Inter Miami

This one is going to be an absolute heater. Orlando will likely be jostling for a good playoff place, Miami quite possibly will be bearing down on getting into the playoffs, and two teams who hate each other, with the Lionel Messi circus coming to town. Plus, with the physicality and controversy involved the last time these teams met, it’s going to be mental, and OCSC is absolutely going to be out for revenge. I fully expect it to be fast, physical, and intense, and that seemed to play into the Lions’ hands during the Leagues Cup game prior to the penalty call. I could be wrong, but this just feels like one where the intensity of a packed Exploria Stadium helps get Orlando the win.

Prediction: 2-1 Orlando City.

Sept. 30 — vs. CF Montreal

I sense a letdown coming in this match, however. Yes it’s at home, but it feels like Orlando could be in for a bit of a lukewarm performance following what will likely be an extremely emotional and physically intense game against Miami. Montreal has been fairly solid, if inconsistent, this year but has already shown to be capable of beating OCSC earlier this year. This feels like a game where Orlando lets in an early goal, and wakes up in the second half, but the rally doesn’t quite get all the way over the line. You can’t win them all, and the Lions have to settle for a point at home to close out the month.

Prediction: 1-1 draw.

If results fall the way that I think they will, Orlando would tally a 3-1-1 record during September and pick up 10 of 15 available points, both of which are perfectly respectable and would likely allow the Lions to keep pace at the top of a crowded Eastern Conference. All we can do now is sit back and see how things unfold. Vamos Orlando!