Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New England Revolution

Following a huge road win against Nashville SC on Wednesday night, Orlando City has just two games left in the regular season. The next match is yet another game with big implications against a team that the Lions are jockeying against for playoff position. OCSC welcomes the New England Revolution to Exploria Stadium tomorrow for the final home game of the regular season.

A date with the Revs means that I caught up with Jake Catanese of The Blazing Musket. As usual, Jake was very helpful in bringing us up to speed on what’s happened with New England’s season since these two teams last played. I also took the time to answer some of Jake’s questions, which you can find over at their place. While you’re there, make sure to check out some of the other great work they do covering soccer up in the New England area.

The Revolution have now played four games with Clint Peay as the man in charge. Are there any tactical differences under Peay compared to what we saw under Bruce Arena, and then Richie Williams?

Jake Catanese: The biggest change so far has been an attempt to play Matt Polster as a psuedo-inverted left back. The Revs have been thin at fullback all year and with Brandon Bye out, Polster’s veteran presence and history as a right back with Rangers and Chicago has been helpful. It’s an old problem and Peay is at least trying something different to deal with it.

The left-side part less so, because that puts DeJuan Jones on the right side away from where he normally plays. The thought process is sound in theory — Polster sitting inside more often as an extra holding midfielder — but it opens the Revs up to a ton of counter attacks and they’ve played better once Jones is switched back to the left. Other right back solutions down the stretch could be starting reserve fullback Ryan Spaulding or moving Andrew Farrell from center back to his original position on the Revs backline.

Following Djordje Petrovic’s move to Chelsea, former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. has stepped in as the starter. How has he performed in the role?

JC: Edwards Jr. has been very solid and it looks like he’s going to be the starter the rest of the year despite Czech veteran Tomas Vaclik’s signing. EEJ has done everything he’s been asked of shot-stopping wise and hasn’t always been getting help from his defense. This is a team that leaked late goals even when Petrovic was here, and that’s because the Revs are lousy at closing out games, which has little to do with the keeper. For the analytics nerds, American Soccer Analysis has Edwards at a -0.08 xG-GA with 12 goals allowed off 12.08 expected goals. About as solid as you can ask for when your backup steps in to the starting role

What are your overall thoughts on the Revs’ season? With a playoff spot locked up, what would constitute a successful campaign?

JC: At this point a successful campaign is one that would be over…

I kid, mostly. It’s been a tumultuous year in New England, which at one point might’ve had a chance to try to chase down Cincinnati for the Shield. The Bruce Arena situation hasn’t helped, as the Revs are essentially on their third coach in as many months. While I think it’s possible they could be the higher seed in one of these horrid three-game series things in November, and maybe even get into the single-elimination part of the bracket, getting any further than that with their current injuries and form seems like a big stretch. Could this team with Gustavo Bou and Henry Kessler returning make a playoff run in an Eastern Conference where Orlando, Philly, and Columbus are all coming in strong? Maybe. The biggest success will be putting this year behind them and starting 2024 healthy.

Are there any players who will be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

JC: Most of the Revs’ injuries (Brandon Bye, Dylan Borrero, Henry Kessler etc.) have been long term and have given Revs fans the likes of Tomas Chancalay, who is currently on loan, and if paired with Borrero as the two wingers in a 4-2-3-1, next year could be fun as hell.

I’ll go with Earl Edwards Jr.; Ryan Spaulding, Dave Romney, Omar Gonzalez, Andrew Farrell; Mark Anthony Kaye, Noel Buck; Tomas Chancalay, Carles Gil, Nacho Gil; Gustavo Bou.

As is tradition, a 2-2 draw, which hasn’t happened in a while, so I think we’re due for that again, and with the Revs leaking goals late quite often, the Lions equalizing past the 80th.

Thank you to Jake for his help in catching us up on New England. Vamos Orlando!