Switching to a 3-4-3 Could Help Orlando City

Orlando City has now used a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 formation in its last six matches. The switch has been necessitated by a combination of injuries and suspensions to the team’s fullbacks and center backs, and I spent some time examining the first two games using the 3-5-2 several weeks ago. In that piece, I noted that the Lions looked better defensively when operating with three at the back, and had also done a decent job of creating chances, albeit in a small sample size. Now that we’ve got more minutes to examine, a picture is beginning to form of a team that still looks fairly solid defensively, but is struggling mightily at the other end of the pitch.

In the six games in which the team used a 3-5-2, Orlando recorded Expected Goals of 1.25, 0.72, 1.99, 1.29, 0.82, and 0.42, for an average of 1.08. That’s not great, as only three teams in the league have lower numbers: the New England Revolution (1.02), FC Dallas (0.99), and Sporting Kansas City (0.99). For those of you keeping track at home, the Revs are bottom of the East, SKC is bottom of the West, and FC Dallas is only two spots above Sporting. While the sample size isn’t as big as those other teams, the numbers are suggesting that this isn’t sustainable.

Expected Goals aren’t the holy grail of soccer statistics, but they generally provide a good metric of how well a team is attacking, but the eye test is perfectly useful in telling us that Orlando City mostly hasn’t been an attacking force across its last six matches.

Three at the back has worked pretty well from a defensive standpoint, as the Lions’ opponents have had xG numbers of 3.85 (2 actual goals), 0.61 (no goals), 0.62 (no goals), 2.19 (2 goals), 1.00 (1 goal), and 0.79 (1 goal), for an average of 1.51.

That number could certainly be better, as it would tie for seventh-highest in the league, although it’s worth mentioning that the three penalty kicks given up against the Philadelphia Union and Columbus Crew do unfairly skew that total, as each one is worth 0.79 xG. If we remove those and focus on open play, the number drops to 1.12, which would actually be the lowest in the league. To be clear, I’m not suggesting the Lions are actually that good defensively, but I do think it’s fair to say that they’ve mostly done well when defending during open play over the last six matches.

Whatever solution we come up with needs to involve a retention of the defensive improvements that the team has shown over the last six matches, while also helping the Lions become more potent offensively. With that being the case, I’m not opposed to keeping a three-man back line, but making a slight tweak to a 3-4-3 formation in order to unlock the team’s offensive potential. With all players healthy and suspension-free, we could see Pedro Gallese in goal, Robin Jansson, Wilder Cartagena, and David Brekalo on the back line, a midfield of Rafael Santos, Cesar Araujo, Nico Lodeiro, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and a front three of Luis Muriel, Duncan McGuire, and Facundo Torres.

One of the biggest drawbacks of a 3-5-2, and something I noted in Player Grades pieces for the games against Philadelphia, Inter Miami, and the Chicago Fire, is that it burdens Facundo Torres with far too many defensive responsibilities. While availability issues meant there wasn’t much choice other than to play him as a wingback, if the team has a clean bill of health, you need the guy who’s been your best offensive player for the last two seasons to be put in the best possible position to succeed. Simply put, that does not involve him consistently defending at or below his own 18-yard box. A 3-4-3 shifts that defensive responsibility to Thorhallson/Santos, while allowing Torres to operate higher up the pitch, where he does his best work.

It also gets Muriel and McGuire on the field at the same time, as they’ve looked capable of forming a nice partnership when they’ve been healthy, rested, and sharing the field. They can play off each other and shift which one is playing through the middle to give the opposing team some different looks throughout the game.

As for the midfield, I have Nico starting, given the type of creative force he’s capable of being, and he’s also looked to have some good budding chemistry with Muriel. With that being the case, he can be swapped for Ivan Angulo or Felipe if Oscar Pareja wants to line his team up more defensively, and the Colombian speedster can also rotate in at winger or wingback as needed.

I’ve kept Cartagena in the middle center back spot for a couple reasons. For one, I don’t think a central midfield pairing of Wilder and Cesar has enough creative punch in a 3-4-3, and Nico should solve that problem. In addition, Cartagena’s shown well enough as the middle center back to keep running him out there, and that also means that you aren’t starting all three experienced, traditional center backs every game and thereby putting all your eggs in one basket.

For substitutions and rotations, Jack Lynn, Ramiro Enrique, and Martin Ojeda can come in at various positions across the front line, Angulo at midfield, winger, or wingback as previously mentioned, Felipe at midfielder, Kyle Smith at wingback or center back, and Rodrigo Schlegel at center back.

In theory, a 3-4-3 formation maintains the defensive stability OCSC has shown with a three-man defense, while putting enough dangerous offensive players on the field in their best positions to help juice things at the other end of the pitch. Whether or not it would actually work out that way is anyone’s guess, but what the Lions have been doing lately hasn’t worked out particularly well, so I think it’s worth a shot.