Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New England Revolution

After a two-week break between matches, Orlando City is back in action Saturday and will try to make it two wins on the bounce after handily dispatching Nashville SC 3-0 during the team’s last outing. This week sees the Lions play their second game of the season against the New England Revolution, following the first meeting back in July when Orlando grabbed a first-ever victory at Gillette Stadium.

A date with the Revs means I caught up with Jake Catanese of the always excellent independent site The Blazing Musket. As usual, Jake was very helpful in getting us up to speed on New England, and I also answered some of his questions about OCSC, so make sure you check those out over at their place.

The Revs have tallied a perfectly balanced record of 1-1-1 since Leagues Cup ended. What’s been your general impression of the team’s play during those games?

Jake Catanese: About what the record has said, a true mixed bag. A blowout win in Montreal, where the Revs just hammered the counter and scored in bunches, a tough loss at RSL where they got outplayed but gave away goals on silly mistakes, and then a really interesting draw against St. Louis last time out that I think a lot of people heard about.

Overall, the Revs have really improved as the season has gone on, and a lot of that has to do with health but also a drastic shift in aggression. When the Revs are forced to sit in their own half and ping the ball around, they look really ineffective when they eventually do get the ball into the attacking half. But when New England catches you backpedaling, it’s only a matter of time before they find someone open in and around the box for a good shooting chance. I think New England is one of the best countering/transition teams in the league, but there’s still long stretches of play where they choose not to push the ball forward and that is usually playing into their weakness.

New England has conceded 51 goals in 26 games, which is third most in the Eastern Conference. Is there concern about the defense, and if so, how has coach Caleb Porter gone about addressing it?

JC: The defense has largely been fine. The goal difference makes things seem a lot worse because the New England just had a lot of trouble generating anything offensively in the first month or two of the season. There’s been a handful of blowouts where the Revs were dealing with heavy squad rotation and injuries, and playing without Carles Gil really hampers the Revs in the transition game, so largely when the Revs are playing at full strength they’ve been competitive. There have been a lot of glaring individual errors leading to goals, but a lot of those occur when the Revs are pinned back and passing amongst themselves, which as we’ve already stated, is a bad thing.

The Revs are facing a dilemma at center back though, with the Henry Kessler trade to St. Louis. He was their only CB under a guaranteed deal for 2025. That means they have decisions to make on Tim Parker, Dave Romney, and Xavier Arreaga, as well as veterans Matt Polster and Nick Lima, among others. Newcomer Alhassan Yusuf has yet to make his debut (international duty with Nigeria as soon as his visa cleared) and could add a lot of help from the central defensive midfield position. Right now there should be enough playing time down the stretch for the three center backs in particular to show what they can do and perhaps force the Revs into some tough decisions. 

Despite any defensive shakiness, statistical or otherwise, the Revs are only five points out of the last play-in place and have at least one game in hand on all of the teams in the East besides Columbus. What needs to happen for New England to get into the playoffs, and how far do you think they could go if they get there?

JC: Well, kind of a lot. The Revs only have three home games remaining and they dropped points to a not great St. Louis team at home that they really needed. Their final two games are at Columbus and at Miami, where they might force Messi to pry their 2021 Shield campaign single-season points record from their cold, dead hands. At this point, dropping any more points at home could be the final nail in the playoff coffin and the Revs are going to have to win probably two of their upcoming road games against Orlando, Charlotte, and Houston, which are all solidly in the midtable. 

At best, the Revs can get into the play-in game, but then they’re more than likely going to face Miami as the top-seed in a three-game series if they even advance in the one-off match. If the Revs get hot and Gil goes on a 2021 MVP-level heater and Luca Langoni and/or Giacomo Vrioni are finding the back of the net every week, they can absolutely scare someone, but I don’t see them getting past Miami or Columbus in the first round. So that means the Revs need to jump up 10+ points into Orlando/Charlotte range to be one of the middle seeds to make a deep run, and they’re just too far back to make up that ground, barring a massive win streak and probably a catastrophic collapse from a team or two ahead of them.

Are there any players who will be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

JC: Hehehe, well, we have a head coach who’s not available due to suspension, but I think everyone knows that. It was kind of hard to miss.

On the injury front, Tomas Chancalay is out for the year which is a bummer. Brandon Bye missed last week’s game but might be fit to be on the bench this week. Esmir Bajraktarevic, Arreaga, and Yusuf all return from international duty.

4-2-3-1: Aljaz Ivacic; Peyton Miller, Xavier Arrega, Tim Parker, Nick Lima; Matt Polster, Ian Harkes; Luca Langoni, Carles Gil, Dylan Borrero; Giacomo Vrioni.
About as solid of a starting group as the Revs can do, with Will Sands possibly starting again at fullback over Lima. If Yusuf is ready to start, he could feature next to Polster, and at some point Esmir should appear. Since he subbed on for Bosnia and had an assist to some guy named Edin Dzeko on his debut for them, I think he’s in good form.

The Revs need this one but the PawedCast gods demand their usual 2-2 draw.

Thank you to Jake for the helpful insight into the Revolution. Vamos Orlando!