Orlando Pride Scenarios for the Shield, Playoff Matchups, and Broken Records

The Orlando Pride are in a great position with just four games remaining in the NWSL regular season. After remaining undefeated through the first 22 games, they have established a seven-point lead at the top of the table. With a matchup against the second-place Washington Spirit looming, the Pride could win the NWSL Shield as soon as this weekend — at Inter&Co Stadium no less. There is everything to play for in the coming weeks, so how do the scenarios play out for the shield, potential playoff opponents, and several NWSL regular-season records that may still be broken?

The Shield Race

The NWSL shield is the trophy awarded to the club that finishes the regular season with the highest point total, and though the Orlando Pride are clear favorites, there is still work to be done to clinch the award. Shown below are the four teams that remain in the shield race and the “magic number” needed for the Pride to finish above them, with more explanation below the table.

The magic number is used to measure what results are needed for the leading team (Orlando) to be mathematically guaranteed of finishing in first place. The magic number for each opposing team counts down until it reaches zero, at which point that team cannot match Orlando’s point total. Specifically, an Orlando win reduces the magic number by three points for each team in the table, and one point for a tie, because they have extended their lead by that many points. When a team below Orlando loses, it reduces that team’s magic number by three points because there are that many fewer points available to gain and catch Orlando. Therefore, when an opposing team ties, it creates a special case that reduces the magic number by two points, because they had the opportunity for three points but dropped two of them.

The example of the Kansas City Current from the table above helps to explain the magic number. As it stands today, the Pride could finish with 54 points, at worst, after four straight losses. Kansas City could finish with 55 points after four wins and claim the shield. If the Current drop two points, or Orlando gains two points, the magic number goes to zero and the Current cannot win the shield. The same math applies for Gotham, where the Pride only need one win (or one loss from Gotham) to make the magic number zero. This shows just how narrow of a path to the shield now remains for Gotham and Kansas City, so only the Spirit can offer a credible challenge.

Considering the Spirit, this weekend’s matchup looms extra large, because head-to-head matches count double in a title race. If the Pride defeat the Spirit, that would reduce the magic number by six, three for Orlando winning and three for Washington losing, and the shield race would be over. For the three remaining matches of the season, Head Coach Seb Hines would be able to rest the squad intelligently and enter the postseason in the best shape possible to play for the NWSL championship. But, don’t expect too much rest for key players, as there would still be the undefeated season to play for.

Even a tie on Sunday would serve Orlando well and reduce the magic number by three. Fans would love it if the club won the shield at home so they could be present for the celebrations, but if that doesn’t happen Sunday, collective stress levels would be better served by winning on the road at Portland or Gotham, rather than waiting until the final match of the season to clinch the trophy. It would also be possible for the Pride to win the shield by tying each remaining match of the season, meaning that the club cannot go undefeated in the regular season and somehow lose the shield.

A loss against the Spirit is where things would start to look a little more challenging for the Pride. After a hypothetical loss, Hines would have to refocus the squad in order to win two of the final three matches, assuming perfection from the Spirit. Unfortunately, Washington does not have any games against top-five opposition after playing the Pride, as the Spirit face Racing Louisville and the Chicago Red Stars at home and North Carolina Courage on the road. While the Spirit have been playing without several injured stars, notably Trinity Rodman and Croix Bethune, they showed their quality and depth by beating Angel City FC away from home in their most recent outing. Fortunately for Orlando, the Pride also currently boast a goal differential eight goals better than the Spirit, so in the unlikely possibility that this tiebreaker matters in back-to-back seasons, the Pride should have the edge.

Playoff Matchups

Behind the excitement of the shield race is the importance of matchups when it comes to the NWSL playoffs. For simplicity’s sake, it is not unreasonable to assume a top-two finish for the Pride, considering the long odds of multiple teams finishing above them after the coming matches. A top-two finish is significant not only because it ensures the first round is played against opposition from middle clubs in the final NWSL table, but it also ensures home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs if the team advances. Despite these advantages, anything can happen in the NWSL playoffs, as Gotham showed last year by finishing in the final playoff spot and then winning three matches en route to being crowned NWSL champions.

Looking at the rest of the NWSL table (below) shows just how many teams Orlando could still face in the first round of the NWSL playoffs. Since Orlando can technically finish anywhere from first to fourth, and no teams have been eliminated from contention, the Pride could play any team in the league in the first round.

By using some common sense, however, we can whittle the number of potential opponents down to four probable candidates. Based on a top-two finish by Orlando, the Pride would face a team that finishes either seventh or eighth. Then, since only four matches remain and none of the teams in the middle of the pack are lighting the world on fire of late, it’s likely that a team within five points of these positions will end the season there.

This list of expected first-round opponents then can be pared down to Chicago, Portland, Bay, and Racing, as it seems to be just too much ground for the others to make up. The Pride have had solid results against their potential playoff opponents, racking up five wins and two draws, with a match against Portland still upcoming. It doesn’t seem that long ago that Portland and Orlando met on a combined 13-match winning streak, but fortunes have diverged greatly since then and Portland has the league’s worst form and risks missing the playoffs altogether. As the Orlando Pride well know, every team in the league has their day, and the team is sure to take the matchup seriously, no matter who the opponent ends up being.

League Records in Reach

While wins and trophies are all that a roster and coaching staff should worry about, us fans often like to keep track of records set along the way. Due to Orlando’s elite play all season, many of the loftiest league records could be broken before the season ends. Several of these records could take all 26 matches to break, but some, like the points record of 57, set by the Courage in 2018, can be surpassed in the same number of matches that they were set.

After going undefeated for 22 matches so far this season, the Orlando Pride are favorites for the NWSL shield. Their additional reward for winning that trophy would be favorable matchups in the playoffs, including home field advantage for the quarterfinals and semifinals. Both of these would have been considered lofty goals at the start of the season, but now, everything is within reach, including some truly incredible records.

Based on the way they’ve carried themselves all year, the players are sure to give it their all and play some damn fine soccer in the final regular season matches. Sunday, they could have a trophy to show for it, and all of Inter&Co Stadium would be there to share in the celebrations. If Sunday isn’t their day, the Pride will have a few more chances for glory in the weeks that follow.