Anatomy of an Ascent: We Should Have Seen the Pride’s Improvement Coming

Hindsight is famously 20/20, and as the glitter, smoke, streamers, raindrops, and Ally Watt’s press conference energy level have settled from the Pride’s NWSL Shield-earning win over the Washington Spirit, it is now time to look back and evaluate. How did the Pride get to the top of the table this season, and should we have seen this coming?

Looking back at 2023, the seeds of the 2024 season were planted during the final games of last year’s season. The Pride ended last year by winning three of their final four matches, with two of those three wins coming against teams that made the playoffs (Angel City and the North Carolina Courage). Had the Pride been able to hold onto their two-goal lead against Louisville in the other of those four final games, they would have qualified for the playoffs, as they were just edged out on goal differential by Gotham, which then went on to win the championship after entering as the sixth and final seed. In the end, the Pride would have made the playoffs by simply scoring two more goals across the 2023 season.

Here is a chart comparing the first 18 games of the 2023 NWSL regular season with the final four games of that season (all data in this article is from fbref.com and nwslsoccer.com):

The Pride may not have qualified for the playoffs last season, but they ended on the aforementioned high note and they used that year to evaluate some new and young players and to make some tough decisions about personnel going into the 2024 season. Looking at this year’s stats, 76% of the minutes played by the Pride’s players in the NWSL season have come from players who played on the Pride in the 2023 season. This link between last season and this season means that the majority of this year’s minutes have been played by players familiar with the coaching staff and their preferred formation and style of play, and while continuity does not guarantee success, continuity plus the addition of one of the best players in the entire world certainly does help.

The impact of Barba Banda on the 2024 Pride cannot be overstated, though I tried to do so a few months ago. I fear I may have jinxed her, and not in the funny way when two people say the same word at the same time. Banda has not been as prolific since she returned from the Paris Olympics, but even with a drop in production in recent weeks, she still ranks second in the league in goals scored, with 13, and second in goal contributions (goals + assists), with 19. Importantly, even though Banda has only scored one goal and had one assist since Aug. 23, she is still averaging 3.1 shot-creating actions and 5.3 shots per game during that timeframe. Defenses have to be hyperaware of her location at all times, opening up space on the field for her other attacking teammates to exploit.

Exploit it they have, as Marta is having her best season since 2017 with eight goals and one assist, and Adriana and Summer Yates also each have five goals. The Pride scored 26 goals during the entire 2023 season, and they brought back the players who scored 18 of those goals. That same group of players who scored 18 last season have scored 17 this season, even with having played one additional regular season game, but the Pride also brought back Yates, who went from zero goal contributions to five goals scored and one assist as she jumped from 117 minutes played in 2023 to 1,151 minutes thus far in 2024. The former U.S. Youth National Team player used her time last season to watch and learn, and when given the chance this season, she seized her opportunity with both feet, earning 15 starts and contributing off the bench in every other game.

Marta and Adriana are bigger names, and both have delivered this season (particularly Marta, who turned back the clock and reminded everyone of her status on the GOAT list, somewhere between the three members of the Gruff family and Willie Mays), but it is the ascent of Yates, from little-used bench player to attacking threat, and the addition of Bandamonium to the offense that I believe are the primary cause for the Pride going from a 2023 average of 1.23 goals scored per game to their current 2024 average of 1.87 goals per game — a 52% increase.

What is even better than a 52% increase in goals scored per game? A 52% increase in goals scored per game combined with a 56% improvement in goals allowed per game. The 2023 Pride conceded 1.27 goals per game, while this year’s version currently allows 0.57 goals per game, which is only ranked as the best goals-against average in NWSL history. I need someone to deepfake the famous “Not great, Bob!” line from Mad Men to have Pete Campbell say “Pretty great, Bob!” so I can use that in a future article.

The Pride brought back all of their primary defensive players from last season, and they also added college All-American draft pick Cori Dyke before the season and experienced NWSL defender Carson Pickett during the season, leading to iron sharpening iron claws sharpening claws and fierce competition for defensive minutes.

Emily Sams used the knowledge she gained from her rookie season in 2023 to come out blazing in 2024 and earn a call-up to the U.S. Women’s National Team for the Olympics, and Anna Moorhouse built off what she learned in her first year as the primary starter in 2023 to set the single-season NWSL shutout record in 2024 with 13 (and counting). Kerry Abello developed chemistry with her back line teammates and a flair for making attacking runs up the left side of the field, while also demonstrating a complete disregard for the care of patients in a medical facility.

Bri Martinez, Haley McCutcheon, and Rafaelle all also came back to the Pride ready to compete for minutes, and Kylie Strom is the vice-captain of the team and unofficial captain of the defense when on the field. Of the minutes played in the back five (goalkeeper + four defensive positions) this season, 89% have been played by players who were on the team last season, and the continuity and competition clearly played a major role in the phenomenal defensive record through 23 games.

Looking at the 2024 Pride season, it is clear that this team executed on a vision that had been put in place long before the opening kickoff against Racing Louisville on March 16. Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter arrived in the beginning of 2023 and has been sprinting ever since, working to ensure that she and Head Coach Seb Hines built a strong culture, partnership, and strategic plan, and that Hines had the players he needed to take that plan and turn it into results.

The 2024 season has been a masterpiece in a plan turning into reality, with many of the players using their 2023 experiences to prepare themselves for excellence in 2024, and the additions of a few new faces, and feet, being the perfect extra spice added to the recipe.

The Pride have the Shield firmly in their collective grasp and now turn their sights to the playoffs. Single-elimination tournaments present different challenges than season-long competitions, but this Pride team was built to ascend over any and all obstacles.