Alex Freeman Looks Ready to Make the Jump to MLS

Among the major men’s sports leagues in the United States, soccer is unique in that the best league in our country is not the best league in the world. This fact makes the entry process into MLS different than what most of us are accustomed to from following other sports, where every youth and adult player in our country and around the world is working towards playing in the NFL, NHL, NBA, or MLB. When it comes to soccer, however, players mostly have a dream of playing in one of the leading European leagues, which makes looking at players on affiliated teams like Orlando City B a little different than looking at players in minor leagues like the NBA’s G League, minor league baseball or any of the minor league hockey leagues.

That said, while reaching MLS may not be the longterm goal of some, or even all, of OCB’s players, for most, their immediate short-term goal will be to be first-team players for Orlando City. And by players, I mean players who play, and not just players who are on the first-team roster. One player who has already slightly kicked the door open on this goal is Alex Freeman, the right back who made brief cameo appearances in 2023 and this season for Orlando City but has played the majority of his minutes during the last two seasons for OCB.

Here is a table of Freeman’s stats from 2023 and 2024, using data from the MLS NEXT Pro website as well as fotmob.com:

I want to start by reiterating that Freeman primarily plays right back, because that number 17 in the goal contributions column for OCB in 2024 just jumps off the page, and even more so when you think about the position he plays. He is averaging 0.69 goal contributions per 90 minutes for OCB this season, and here is the complete list of every Orlando City defensive player who has ever averaged at least 0.70 in a season at the MLS level: (null set).

Cue Simon & Garfunkel playing “The Sound of Silence.” Or maybe don’t actually play it, because then it would not actually be silent, but think of the song as a metaphor. I majored in mathematics, not English; no Orlando City defender has ever averaged at least 0.70 goal contributions per 90 minutes. Let’s move on.

That silence would also have existed had I changed the value to 0.60, 0.50, or 0.40, and it is not until I looked for Orlando City defenders averaging more than 0.30 goal contributions per 90 minutes in a season that names like Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, Ruan, and Scott Sutter finally showed up. The are good players, beloved by Orlando City fans, but approximately one goal contribution per every three games is not an elite attacking player. Freeman’s 0.69, however, is more akin to someone like…2024 Facundo Torres, who in fact is averaging nearly exactly that in MLS play this season (14 goals + 6 assists across 2,552 minutes = 0.71). A right back who contributes to goals like Torres? That sounds like someone who needs an entourage. Now, would that be something you might be interested in?

Yes. Hi, I’m Andrew, and I am quite interested.

Now, I know the level and the style of play is not the same in MLS NEXT Pro as it is in MLS, but it is also not so different either. MLS teams average about 1.53 goals scored per game, and MLS NEXT Pro teams average about 1.73 goals scored, so the average MLS NEXT Pro team scores around 13% more goals per game than the average MLS team. That is more, but not substantially more. OCB averaged 1.89 goals per game this season and Orlando City is averaging 1.67 goals per game with one game remaining, so OCB is averaging…wait for it…13% more goals per game than its MLS counterpart. Scoring is slightly up in MLS NEXT Pro as compared to MLS, but when taking this back to look at Freeman’s goal contributions per 90 minutes it is not like he is playing in a league or on a team that has dramatically more scoring.

Freeman himself was quoted after the Young Lions’ last match as saying, “It’s good that I’m able to go forward and I think I’m more clinical now. I’m able to go score goals and I’m feeling really good.” He had been asked specifically about his recent run of goal-scoring form, but the clinical part also applies to his passing ability and the improvements he has made there as well.

Going back to the data I showed earlier, Freeman has also improved his passing completion percentage from 76% to 79% to 86% during the past three seasons, and considering how much attacking he has been doing this season, it is not like he is just standing in the back and completing safe passes to other defensive players to jack that percentage up.

In fact, only 33% of his completed passes were short passes, so therefore, two out of every three passes completed were medium or long passes. And with an overall completion rate of 86%, that means he was indeed as clinical as he said, since it takes technique, skill, and precision to complete such a high percentage of medium and long passes. It’s almost like someone in his family may have passed on a thing or 86 about how to complete a pass.

The final item from Freeman’s statistics that might have jumped out was his “FotMob rating,” and the corresponding MLS NEXT Pro Rank. Freeman is now up to third in this rating, across all players in MLS NEXT Pro. FotMob.com has a rating system that grades out players in dozens of leagues and thousands of matches every week, and that system (out of 10) has Freeman averaging a score of 7.66 for the season. MLS NEXT Pro has been around for three seasons and 901 players have played enough minutes to earn a season-long FotMob grade. Freeman’s 7.66 is tied for the 17th best mark in the past three seasons, which puts his 2024 season in the 98% percentile of all MLS NEXT Pro seasons in this metric.

What makes this even more impressive is that Freeman just turned 20 in August. MLS NEXT Pro is primarily a league of young players, but of the 16 seasons that generated a FotMob rating better than Freeman’s, none were played by a player who was in his teens for most of the season and half were played by players 22 or older. Freeman is also alone among the top players as a defensive player, as nearly every other top rated player is an attacking midfielder or striker.

Most rating systems are biased (excluding The Mane Land’s player grading system, which has zero biases or flaws and is the very model of a modern major rating system) towards attacking players, since offensive plays are generally more discretely quantifiable than defensive plays, and so some of Freeman’s standing as the only defender rated highly on a data-based rating system can be explained by the fact that the model rewards attacking defenders more than center backs. However, on the qualitative side, Freeman’s coach Manuel Goldberg was quoted after the last game as saying “The key for (Freeman’s) success this season is the defensive part he is doing. Although he is contributing a lot in the offensive part, he is doing a big, big, big and important job in the defensive part, so we are happy for that for him.”

Mannie Fresh never mentioned “defensive play real big” on his list of items that were, surprise surprise, real big on his creatively named 2004 song “Real Big,” but if Goldberg were recording a 2024 remix, I feel like a line about Freeman’s defensive contributions may be included since he emphasized them as not big; not big, big; but big, big, big. He did not define whether big, big, big is defined as three big or big cubed, which hurts my feelings as a mathematician, but either way it is clear that Freeman’s play on the offensive side is not the only thing that has caught notice of his coach, and that he is contributing on both offense and defense.

With only three seasons worth of MLS NEXT Pro history, it is hard to use past seasons as concrete precedent for what an elite season could lead to, but in looking at 2022’s top 10 MLS NEXT Pro performers in FotMob rating, we can see that half of the players went on to play 500+ MLS minutes in the each of the next two seasons after their strong performance that year. The other five are split between three who are still in MLS NEXT Pro (light blue, third tier of soccer in the U.S.), one who moved to the USL Championship (light purple, second tier of soccer in the U.S.), and John Denis, who sadly has had to step away from soccer due to a cancer diagnosis.

At only 20 years old, and with three seasons of year over year improvement in MLS NEXT Pro, call-ups to the U.S. U-19 and U-23 national teams, and a few brief appearances already for Orlando City, I believe that Freeman is the best prospect the Lions have ever developed. The outside back depth chart ahead of him includes primary starters Thórhallsson and Rafael Santos, with Kyle Smith as a versatile player who can play on either side. Santos and Smith have contracts that expire at the end of the season, with Smith out of contract and the club holding two option years on Santos. While it would not surprise me if both are back next season, I think they and Thórhallsson are going to be pushed very hard for minutes by Freeman, and it could even result in one of the players changing positions, since all four have versatile skill sets and are comfortable attacking and defending. I am very bullish on Freeman, and I think he will approach 1,000 minutes played for Orlando City in 2025 across all competitions.

Before next season arrives though, there is still the matter of the MLS NEXT Pro playoffs, and Freeman and OCB will take on Chicago Fire FC II on Sunday. Playoff soccer is much more stressful than regular-season soccer, and I am looking forward to seeing how the Young Lions, and Freeman in particular, perform on the road at Chicago in their toughest test of the season. Freeman has six goals and three assists in his last six matches. Here’s to hoping that those numbers increase during the first round of the playoffs and that OCB advances through to the next round.

Vamos Orlando!