Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

Orlando City hosts rival Atlanta United this Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium. Despite having already secured a spot in the playoffs, the Lions will try to lock up fourth place and home-field advantage for the first round. It’s a Decision Day match against a rival. It doesn’t get any better than that.

What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points and close the door on Atlanta United’s slim playoff hopes?

Solve the Defensive Midfield Puzzle

Wilder Cartagena is suspended for this match due to yellow card accumulation. As such, Orlando City’s excellent defensive midfield pairing of Cartagena and Cesar Araujo will not be on the field together. Whether Oscar Pareja decides to plug and play with a backup for Cartagena or change shape will impact how effective Orlando City’s defense is against Atlanta.

If Pareja decides to change shape, he could employ a 5-3-2 as he did earlier in the season to cover for Cartagena’s absence. I don’t believe this will be the route he will take given that he won’t have every player available and because Cartagena as the middle center back was key to that formation. Even if some players like David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson return from injury, they won’t be back to 90-minute match fitness. Additionally, Pareja likes to stick with what has been working, and that is his traditional 4-2-3-1, although he has gone to a 4-4-2 at times.

If Pareja decides to simply sub in another player, he has several to choose from. Nico Lodeiro, Felipe Martins, Jeorgio Kocevski, and Heine Gikling Bruseth are all available. As much as I’d be interested in seeing what Bruseth brings to the table, I think it’s doubtful we see him get any minutes this season. I think that the match is too important for Kocevski to get the start, which leaves Felipe and Lodeiro. Felipe offers a bit more on the defensive end, and Lodeiro a bit more on offense. My guess is that Pareja starts Lodeiro to help get a lead, and then subs on Felipe to defend it.

Continue the Crooked Numbers

Orlando City has scored at least two goals in each of its last seven matches. That has resulted in six wins, with the only blemish being the 4-3 loss to the second-place Columbus Crew. In those seven matches, the Lions scored 19 goals, spread over seven goal scorers. Facundo Torres leads the way with five in that period, followed by Ramiro Enrique with four, Duncan McGuire with three, Luis Muriel and Ivan Angulo each with two, and defenders Rodrigo Schlegel and Rafael Santos with one goal apiece.

With the one outlier, the Lions have been successful when scoring multiple goals. In that same seven-match period, Atlanta United gave up 10 goals. In four of those, the Five Stripes conceded two goals. I’m not saying that Atlanta is bad defensively, but it isn’t better than Orlando City in that department — both have allowed 48 goals this season. I am saying that Atlanta is vulnerable, especially if the Lions can keep their chances on target.

Bounce Back from the Break

This will be the first match following the international break. While some players, like Pedro Gallese, Cartagena, and Torres, are returning from their respective national teams, others have only had training sessions with the club. When a club is in good form, such a break can be detrimental. How well the Lions pick back up where they left off is crucial.

The good news is that they are playing at home. A raucous crowd can go a long way towards helping a team’s performance. Additionally, this is a rivalry match. While supporters are usually more invested in the rivalries, the players will certainly be aware of what it means to the club. Orlando City players also have the advantage of sleeping in their own beds and maintaining their regular schedules heading into this match. Sometimes it’s the little things that make a difference.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!