How the Orlando Pride Went 24 Matches Without a Loss

After an astounding 24 matches unbeaten, the Orlando Pride have finally lost a game, falling to the Thorns in Portland on Friday night. During a streak that began by winning on the final day of the 2023 NWSL regular season, the Pride set many NWSL records. Among them are longest consecutive winning streak, longest time without conceding a goal, and tying the most points in an NWSL season with two matches left to play.

The loss, when it finally came, was after the Pride won the NWSL Shield and clinched the top position for the playoffs, significantly reducing the stakes for Orlando. Now that the streak has ended, it is worth analyzing how incredible it was and what made it possible for the Pride to achieve it.

Looking at the anatomy of the unbeaten streak shows just how many players on the roster had a hand in keeping the run alive. Between the last match of 2023 and the loss to Portland, 30 different players logged minutes on the pitch for the Pride, and 21 of those players tallied more than 90 minutes. Of those players, 14 recorded at least one goal or assist during the streak, and everyone on the pitch contributed to both the team’s defensive and buildup play. While the big-name players like Marta and Barbra Banda have often grabbed the headlines, even players like Amanda Allen made a big difference to keeping the streak alive. After all, it was her assist on a Summer Yates goal in the first match of 2024 that secured the draw against Racing Louisville and started the year on the right foot. 

Over the course of 24 matches, it is not possible to dominate every opponent. The opponent, their form, and the venue, as well as injuries, suspensions, and a myriad of other factors make it impossible. During the unbeaten streak, the Pride played in many tight games where one kick of the ball in either direction could end or extend the streak. Using the expected goal (xG) statistics provided by FBRef.com, it is possible to draw big-picture conclusions from the streak. The xG statistic estimates how many goals a player or team would score based on the quality of the shooting chances being created in the match. While there are limitations to diving too deeply on one game’s numbers, with a sample size the length of a full season, clear patterns emerge. 

Comparing the xG generated by both teams in each of Orlando’s matches during the undefeated run, it is possible to say how many matches the Pride would be expected to win or lose and how many would be tight games. In matches in which the Pride generated 0.5 xG greater than their opponent, it can be said that they generally played well enough to win. When the Pride generated 0.5 xG lower than the opponent, the opposition played well enough to win. Any result between these two would be a tight contest. Below are the tabulated results of applying this method over the entire unbeaten streak, compared with the actual results during this time.

As shown above, the Pride outperformed their expected outcomes during the unbeaten streak by avoiding one expected loss (a 1-1 home matchup with Angel City FC) and turning several tight contests into wins. What is most impressive from these statistics is how the Pride managed to play in 10 matches in which they were not clearly the better team but still managed to win or draw. They did all this without enduring bad luck, a mistake, or a world-class goal from the opposition that changed the result. This shows clearly that reality doesn’t always match the statistics. For one thing, this formulation relies on how an average team would fare, while Orlando has been the best team in the league during this run. The Pride also demonstrated all of the attributes needed for securing results and avoiding losses.

On the attacking front, the Pride were not prolific so much as they were timely and efficient in their scoring during the streak. Their output of 40 goals (plus four own goals) was slightly lower than the xG of 45 goals generated in that stretch. This shows two things. First, Orlando exhibited below-average finishing during the unbeaten streak and therefore did not rely on a hot run of form in front of net to shoot their way out of tough positions. Second, it shows that Orlando was creating a lot of good scoring chances in their matches — enough to score once or twice per match en route to stacking up results.

Once again, at the other end of the pitch, the defensive metrics were the real star of the show, following a common theme for the season. During the unbeaten streak, the Pride’s opponents generated 24.9 xG, a moderately low tally. Compare this to the 13 actual goals conceded for things to look truly impressive. This over-performance of the expected goals model is well outside the norm and shouldn’t be attributed to just luck or chance, and it merits a deeper review. 

Since the unbeaten streak began, the Pride have conceded the fewest goals. It’s then reasonably intuitive that they have also faced the fewest shots on target at just 92. On top of all this, Anna Moorhouse currently boasts the highest save percentage in the league in 2024. So, the Orlando Pride are conceding the fewest goals by facing the fewest shots and saving the highest percentage of them. But how have they managed to do that for such a long stretch of games? 

The key is hiding in a relatively obscure statistic that tracks the quality of the opposition’s shooting chances — “post-shot expected goals per shot on target.” Long-range shots and shots straight at the keeper have low values for this metric, while close-range, well-struck shots measure highly. In 2024, the Orlando Pride have performed best in the league by this metric, meaning opponents are taking their worst shots against the Pride.

Orlando’s opponents’ shots have been so poor that they are only expected to score from one in every five shots on target. This is due in large part to Orlando’s defense allowing nothing easy, requiring the opposition to score from either long-range efforts or quick sequences and half-chances, when they don’t have time to place the ideal shot. Taken all together, the way that Orlando has been able to outperform every other team in the league, as well as what would be statistically expected of them, is by allowing the fewest shots, only allowing them to come in the form of bad shots from longer distances, and then saving a very high percentage of the shots they’re facing. As the league saw for 24 Pride matches without a defeat, this has been a lethal combination.

Going a full season unbeaten would have been an incredible feat, but the 24-match streak was just as impressive on its own. It is no surprise that the streak ended after winning the shield enabled the staff to rest key players. It is even more understandable considering that the Pride were playing a Thorns team fighting for their playoff lives in one of the most challenging venues in the NWSL after a short week (Sunday to Friday) which included hurricane-interrupted travel plans.

After the loss to the Thorns, there are just two more low-stakes matches to go until the playoffs. At the end of the day, it may not be a bad thing that the pressure of trying to go unbeaten is lifted as the Pride focus solely on winning an NWSL championship.