Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls

Game day is almost upon us, and this particular game day is one of the most important in Orlando City’s MLS history, as the Lions will face the New York Red Bulls Saturday in the 2024 Eastern Conference final.

With a matchup against the Red Bulls looming, I took the time to speak to Mark Fishkin of The Seeing Red Podcast. As always, Mark was very helpful in bringing us up to speed on what’s been happening with the Red Bulls. Our managing editor, Michael Citro, was also a guest on the show this week and you can find that at your favorite podcast dispensary.

I was really impressed by the Red Bulls bagging not just one, but two goals in the shoebox-like conditions of Citi Field — something that Orlando City almost always struggles with when visiting the baseball diamonds. What did NYRB do well that helped the team find the back of the net?

Mark Fishkin: RBNY did two things extremely well against City: win second balls, which led to each of RBNY’s goals on the night, and high press, especially in the early going. New York’s first goal was a laser beam by summer Designated Player signing Felipe Carballo, and the second one was a sniper’s goal by Dante Vanzier off a corner kick.

When we last talked back at the end of May, you praised Lewis Morgan and Carlos Coronel. It seems like they’ve continued to be excellent, but has anyone else stood out?

MF: While Morgan once again led the team in scoring, this is Emil Forsberg’s team, and his absence due to injury in the second half of the season sank the Red Bulls down the Eastern table. After an 8-3-5 start, New York went 3-6-9 to drop to seventh in the East. Forsberg’s return has lifted the Red Bulls past favored Columbus and New York City FC to reach the club’s first conference final since 2018.

What do you see as the most important battle for New York to win on Saturday? Is there a particular matchup that you’re keeping a close eye on?

MF: John Tolkin’s ability to contain Facundo Torres is the key to the Red Bulls’ success on Saturday. With Torres in check, Forsberg’s ability to distribute around both Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena will be the difference.

Will anyone be unavailable due to injuries, suspensions, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

MF: Starting center back Sean Nealis is questionable for Saturday after getting knocked out cold in a collision with NYCFC’s Justin Haak last weekend. Nealis practiced off to the side (Wednesday) and may not be ready for the conference final. First-year depth player Noah Eile (Swedish youth international) will sub in. Coach Sandro Schwarz may elect to play with four in the back, which might look like: Carlos Coronel; Dylan Nealis, Noah Eile, Andres Reyes, John Tolkin; Felipe Carballo, Daniel Edelman, Cameron Harper, Emil Forsberg; Dante Vanzier, Lewis Morgan.

Given the teams’ defensive strengths, I see a 1-0 match. No one has picked New York to get past Columbus or NYC. The Red Bulls get the goal and move on to the team’s second-ever MLS Cup.

Thank you to Mark for his insight into the Red Bulls. Vamos Orlando!