Imagining Orlando City’s Starting Lineup Saturday by Looking At 2024’s Best Lineup

As a mathematician, I like to use real numbers to tell a story and try not to stray too far into the hypothetical or the imaginary with my analysis. That is, unless I am taking everyone back to their days in Algebra 2 and that time their teacher blew their minds by introducing the concept of imaginary numbers, which of course is a concept that, no matter how hard the teacher tries, will always be complex. That is a math joke, and I will not apologize for it.

I am not going to write about imaginary numbers in this article, but I am going to ask you to use your imagination a little bit with me in my final article before the season opener this weekend. During the last few months, Orlando City has not completely overhauled its roster, but there have been significant changes — to the point that there is not one lineup group that played during the 2024 season that could play again in 2025. Every lineup that Orlando City used — and there were 156 unique lineups that played together for at least one minute — has at least one player who is no longer with the club at the outset of the 2025 season.

The big losses were Facundo Torres, via his transfer to Brazilian club Palmeiras, and Wilder Cartagena, who is out with a season-ending injury, but the club also saw the departures of key reserve and sometimes starter Nico Lodeiro (2,095 minutes), backup midfielder Felipe (505 minutes), backup goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar (479 minutes), depth striker Jack Lynn (287 minutes), depth defender Michael Halliday (194 minutes), depth midfielder Jeorgio Kocevski (155 minutes), depth left back/winger Luca Petrasso (45 minutes), and depth defender Abdi Salim (26 minutes). In addition, Yutaro Tsukada (25 minutes) was injured in the preseason and may be out for a long time, if not the full season, and Duncan McGuire (1,875 minutes) does not yet have a return date from his injury.

All of a sudden the club is only returning 15 of the 26 players who played any minutes last season, and two of those players (Shak Mohammed and Alex Freeman) combined for only 64 total minutes. I covered some of this in an article a few weeks ago, but that article is already now out of date with the news of the last few weeks. Thanks a lot for making me look bad, Orlando City front office.

Now, back to what I mentioned about using your imagination. The club is still returning a lucky 13 players who played significant minutes in 2024, and of the group that started the games during the stretch run of the season they are bringing back nine of the usual starting 11. The two missing players are Cartagena and Torres, but now let’s use our imagination, squint really hard, and play a little make believe.

Orlando City acquired defensive midfielder Eduard Atuesta in early February, and let’s imagine he is an approximation of Cartagena while playing next to César Araújo. I do not think this is a major stretch, as Atuesta is an experienced player who has been successful in MLS with LAFC, and he looked good during the preseason Tropic Thunder friendly against Inter Messi. Sorry, Inter Miami. The club also replaced Designated Player Torres with newly signed Designated Player Marco Pasalić, and he is an approximation of Torres in the position he likes to play and the foot he likes to use. As to whether he can step in and score 20 goals as Torres did last year…this is why we are using our imagination.

Is it a coincidence that Orlando is also the home of the Figment ride at EPCOT, which is all about using your imagination? Was that an excuse to mention Figment to see if my wife actually reads my articles like she says she does, since she loves that ride? Let’s move on.

In our world, where Atuesta and Pasalić are approximations of the players they replaced, what does that say about the probable starting lineup for Saturday’s season opener? I am assuming that it will be the nine returning players from the group who started the Eastern Conference final (Pedro Gallese, Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, César Araújo, Iván Angulo, Martín Ojeda, and Ramiro Enrique), plus Atuesta in the Cartagena spot and Pasalić in the Torres spot. Let’s look at how that group (with Cartagena and Torres) did last season when playing together:

Since Orlando City came into Major League Soccer (MLS) in 2015, only two teams have had a season-long goal difference per 90 minutes of better than +1.23: LAFC in 2019 and the Philadelphia Union in 2022. Unsurprisingly, both teams had the best regular-season record in MLS during those two respective seasons, so Orlando City’s most frequently used lineup definitely played at an elite level last year.

We have to use our imaginations to insert Atuesta and Pasalić into Cartagena’s and Torres’ spots and expect the same outputs as both of those outstanding players, but I do not believe it is unreasonable to think that the two new players could provide at least some of what the former players did. Atuesta has the MLS pedigree and Pasalić’s stock rose dramatically from the summer of 2023 to when he was acquired by Orlando City a few weeks ago, a time frame that included five appearances in 2024 for a Croatian national team that is currently ranked 13th in the FIFA men’s rankings. It is a lot to ask these two players to replace Cartagena and Torres, but I think it is possible.

I am aware it is also possible that I could win the lottery. I am on board with both of these things happening, posthaste.

We are just days away from the season opener and dealing with reality instead of our imaginations, but the lineup that Head Coach Óscar Pareja put together for the stretch run last year was highly successful during their minutes together, and it appears like there are two ready-made replacements for the two swaps that would need to happen. They could, of course, go with a different look or a different lineup, but based on Pareja’s history, he likes to find a lineup that performs and sticks with it, and with most of the stretch run players back and healthy and their two best new players bedded in and ramped up, I think that group will be the starting 11 on Saturday night.

I will be in the stands watching and cheering on the Lions, and if Orlando City goes with this lineup and it is as successful as I think it will be, I imagine you will hear me saying I told you so.

Vamos Orlando!