Summer Yates a Top Candidate to Replace Adriana’s Production — and Exceed It

The Pride’s season starts Friday…kind of. The Pride definitely will play a game on that date, wearing their uniforms in front of fans, but the game will straddle the line between being meaningful and meaningless.

It is an NWSL game, but one that has no bearing on the standings or playoff qualification. However, if they win, they will win a trophy — the NWSL Challenge Cup. Players will not accumulate any official NWSL statistics, but if they perform well or poorly, it very well may have a bearing on their roles once the regular season starts. A soccer game should in no way be similar to Winston Churchill’s famous line about the Soviet Union being a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside of an enigma, except for when it is.

Perhaps that was a bit hyperbolic. Ok, very hyperbolic.

What is truly still a mystery, however, is who will take the mantle from Adriana as the team’s third offensive focal point? The clear top two are Barbra Banda and Marta, who combined for more than 20 goals last season, but the third is up for grabs. As a quick reminder, here are the top performers from last year during NWSL regular-season play (data from Opta’s tracking on fbref.com, SCA = shot-creating actions):

Adriana’s departure leaves nearly 1,700 minutes to fill, in addition to around four shots per 90 minutes and the third most goals on the team. The Brazilian also was a heavy possessor of the ball when the Pride were in the attacking third of the field, touching the ball as often as Banda and almost as often as Marta.

The Pride do not have to directly replace all of those statistics, but being that they brought back many of the key contributors from last season, they are likely to play in a similar fashion as they did in 2024 (and, um, they won the shield and the cup so why wouldn’t they?). So, many of the shots and touches taken by Adriana will be there for someone else to take.

Grace Chanda was recently removed from the Season-Ending Injury List, Simone Charley likely will be removed soon, and the team signed Prisca Chilufya in the off-season, but I think it will be Yates who makes another leap and ascends into a major role in the Pride’s attack this season. Head Coach Seb Hines clearly already trusts her, giving her 17 starts during the regular season in 2024, and despite receiving little national attention and playing only slightly more than 50% of the available regular-season minutes, she proved herself to be one of the league’s elite attacking players, placing in the top 20 in several critical metrics.

Here is where she ranked in the NWSL during the 2024 season in several attacking statistics:

A quick trip down dictionary lane for these metrics:

• Shot-Creating Actions — the final two plays that happened immediately prior to a shot.
• Season Game Score — I explained this metric in detail in this article on Orlando City, but it amounts to a measure of the contributions of goals, expected assists, and attacking plays per game.
• Goals — Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooals.
• Plus/Minus per 90 — the differential between goals scored and goals allowed while a player is on the field, normalized over a 90-minute period.
• On-Off — the differential between goals scored and goals allowed while a player is on the field as compared to the goal differential when they are not on the field, normalized over a 90-minute period.

For all of these metrics, the goal is to be positive, and the more positive the better the performance. Yates is a skilled dribbler and passer, and those skills in particular helped her create exactly four shots per 90 minutes for her teammates last season. Despite playing nearly 350 fewer minutes than Adriana last season, she had more key passes (32 to 30) and one-on-one dribbling wins (28 to 24), and her win rate on those one-on-one dribbling take-ons was much higher (45% to 35%).

Those same skills helped contribute to her high season game score as well, as expected assists and progressive passes come from well-played passes, and progressive carries (dribbles) can only happen if a player has excellent touch and can dribble at speed at an opposing defense.

If you scroll back up to the first chart, which showed goals and shots, you will notice that Yates scored five goals on only 25 shots — a 20% success rate and the best on the team. The full team average, excluding Yates, was 9.9% and the NWSL average was 10.0%, so she was in a class by herself in terms of making the most of her shots when she took them.

The final two metrics I showed, plus/minus and on-off, are tied into goal differential, and those therefore take into account both the offensive and defensive performance of the player and the team while on the field. Yates was better than +1.00 in both metrics, and while soccer is a game played by 11 players, it is still telling that the team performed positively while she was on the field and was better with her on the field than when she was not on the field.

Yates cannot play all of Adriana’s minutes, but I think if healthy she should definitely pick up at least 400-500 of them. Extrapolating is a dangerous business, best left to mathematicians (oh hey, that’s me) and gamblers (not me, though I did like seeing that the Pride are the favorites to win the NWSL this year). An increase of 400-500 minutes would be an increase of around one-third for Yates and would correspondingly put her on track for seven goals and three assists during the regular season.

Only 14 NWSL players had at least 10 goal contributions in 2024, and I think that is possible for Yates to achieve in 2025. I think she deserves the minutes, and if she gets them, she will deliver goals all….summer….long. The competition will be fierce with the firepower the Pride have on the offensive side of the ball, and I am excited to see how Hines divvies out the minutes once the season starts.

Perhaps the NWSL Challenge Cup will be a harbinger of things to come, or perhaps Hines will use that game for experimentation or even as a shiny diversion, like covering a barnacle with bioluminescent algae, with the whole league watching. Only he knows, but one thing we all know is that he is smiling while thinking about whatever strategy he is planning to deploy in the season opener.

Until then it is is mystery, but my hope is that he will read the clues and solve the case by selecting Summer Yates on the field with a 90-minute timepiece.