Orlando City’s Defense Must Start Rocking Right Now

Rob Base and DJ E-Z Rock penned a song in 1988 that became a staple on dance floors and in sports arenas everywhere, and it will probably remain so for years to come. That song is the classic single “It Takes Two,” a favorite of mine for as long as I can remember. The reason I bring it up here is not because of Rob Base and his excellent flow, but rather because in three of the four games this season “it takes two” was also the answer to the question “how many goals will the Lions need to score to at least give themselves a chance to earn a point?”

Sadly, in the other game of the first four it was not it takes two but rather it takes two times two, or perhaps it it takes two two times, when the Lions gave up four goals in the season opener.

The regular season is 34 games long, and with only four games played, Orlando City still has 88% of its games remaining. And, with one win and one draw among those first four games, the Lions have earned four points, which is better than last season, when they had only earned one point after their first four games. That team went on to make it all the way to the Eastern Conference final, so we should not overreact to a slow start.

And really, the slow start is only on the defensive side, because the offense has scored nine goals, tying for second in MLS so far, and it is also among the top teams in shots (second), shots on target (third), goals per shot (seventh), and goals per shot on target (sixth).

I wanted to look a little more at the defense this week, and in particular look at that ugly stat around giving up at least two goals in every game. I looked back at the last three seasons in MLS to see how many regular-season games a team gave up at least two goals, and I was both heartened and disheartened by what I found. Here are the results, broken out by each team’s final position (reminder that the regular season is 34 games):

It was heartening to see that the average across every final position that ended in the playoffs was at least 10 games, and most were at least 12.5. I had thought it would be a lower average, so based on Orlando City’s early performances, I was glad to see that it was higher than I thought.

Though it is not in the chart above, the average for all playoff teams during the three seasons was 13.1 games of giving up at least two goals. That is approximately 38% of a season, so the average playoff team gave up at least two goals in nearly two out of every five games. This was also more than I thought, and it means that Orlando City can pretty quickly get back onto a similar pace with a good run of defensive form.

While I was happy to see that most teams — even teams that went deep into the playoffs — had posted double-digit games of shipping two or more goals, that still does not change the fact that Orlando City is on pace to give up two or more goals in…let me check my math here….every game this season. A four-game sample is a small one, and it would not be wise to make any firm conclusions off of that, but it is simple math to look at the three-year averages for the teams that went deep into the playoffs and to calculate that Orlando City is already around one-third of the way there, with nearly 90% of the season left to play. Disheartening.

The obvious question is why are the Lions giving up so many goals, and, as was discussed a bit on the most recent episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, the team has started four different defensive lineups in four games, and the Lions will make it five for five during this week’s game against D.C. United, as Pedro Gallese was called up to Peru’s national team, so Javier Otero will likely be the starter in goal. The back line in front of Otero will probably be a repeat of a lineup that has already been used, but the lack of continuity in defense has certainly contributed to some of the issues in the first four games.

Head Coach Óscar Pareja has pointed to individual mistakes that need to be cleaned up for the results to improve, but the team as a whole has allowed the fourth-most shots on target this season, an average of 5.75 per game. Using expected goals as a measure for the danger of the locations of the shots allowed, Orlando City is giving up shots from the second-most dangerous locations across MLS, making it unsurprising that its opponents have put so many shots on target per game and converted 10 of those shots into goals. Individual mistakes certainly contributed, and Robin Jansson was called for a questionable foul that gave the Red Bulls an undeserved penalty kick, but the issues seem to be a little deeper than just a few mistakes that need to be cleaned up.

Or, perhaps it is a few individual mistakes, a lack of continuity on the back line and also some bad luck. Six of the goals allowed have been from within four yards, one was a penalty kick, and one was shot into a wide open goal after Rodrigo Schlegel took perhaps the worst touch in his professional career. According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City only gave up five goals from four yards or closer in 2024, and for that number to already be six this season seems like an aberration more than a new normal. The team also opened the season against Philadelphia, and after four games played, the Union lead the league in goals scored. That was also the game when Jansson was unexpectedly scratched from the starting lineup just minutes before the opening kickoff, changing the defensive game plan considerably.

Maybe that is me seeing the glass half full instead of half empty, but these are the same defensive players as last season, with the exception of Alex Freeman playing instead of Dagur Dan Thórhallsson for most of the minutes at right back. The defensive statistics were much better in 2024 than thus far in 2025, and Freeman is not a downgrade from Thórhallsson, so I think a positive regression to the mean will be coming. The 2024 team also gave up 10 goals in the first four games, 2.5 goals per game, but then gave up 40 goals in the next 30 regular-season games, a reduction of more than one goal per game, from 2.5 to 1.33.

The Lions’ defense has the talent and the experience to do something similar this year, especially as the players spend more minutes together, and there is no time like the present to have their first game of giving up fewer than two goals. I do not think it is too much to ask, and if the players are looking for some inspiration, they could get that by watching the Orlando Pride’s defensive players, who are coached by former Orlando City defender Seb Hines.

Let’s hope that the defense can, to quote Rob Base, make this thing go right.

Vamos Orlando!