What Orlando City’s First 10 Matches May Indicate for 2025

There is no specific reason for why we use a base-10 number system, perhaps because most of us have 10 fingers that can easily be used for counting, but it is clear from many examples in all walks of life that people like to use nice round numbers whenever possible, and in particular like to use multiples of 10 for convenience. Top 10 lists or rankings abound, and often we hear about the performance during the last 10 events. As a mathematician, I like using 10 as a denominator, because it is simple to create a percentage out of 10 and most people can easily understand the significance of a high or low percentage when making an argument.

Significance is a loaded word in mathematics, as is power, as both have specific definitions as it relates to statistics (ask your nerd friends, or ask me, also a nerd, in the comments), but for this case, we are going to use the English major definitions of significance and power and take a look at Orlando City’s results during the team’s first 10 MLS regular-season games to see what the numbers might tell us about what we can expect during the rest of the season.

Below is a table of Orlando City’s points earned per game through games 1-10 during each of the club’s MLS seasons, with 2020 excluded due to the difference in that season due to COVID-19.

Looking at these comparisons, for the most part, the performance during the first 10 games seems to have little bearing on the results during the rest of the season. These are not even splits. The MLS regular season is 34 games long, so the third column is 24 games’ worth of data while the second column is only 10, but even though the games played totals are different between the columns, we see vastly different performance in the time periods. Hot early starts lead to cold periods later, or vice versa, and in seven of nine seasons, the difference in points per game between the first 10 games and the final 24 was at least 0.29. For context, a drop of 0.29 points per game this season would take Orlando City from eighth to 19th in the overall table, and an increase of 0.29 would move the Lion into fourth.

The sample size of this data is pretty small at just nine seasons, and the reality of sports is that despite the romanticism of teams from the past and how some teams allegedly have winning DNA while others are cursed by teams of yore, the performance of (for example) the 2018 Orlando City team has no bearing on how the 2025 team will perform, since there are no players still with this year’s team from that team and the coaching staff has changed as well. And thank goodness, because in 2018 it was all caps UGLY down the stretch — only two wins in the final 24 games and the Lions were outscored 58-23 in those 24 games. Yuck.

While 2018 thankfully has no bearing on today’s Orlando City, the 2024 team’s performance does have some impact. Many of the key players on this year’s team were also on the team last year, and with the same head coach in place, the team is playing a similar style as it did last season. There are differences in personnel and style though, and even among the players who are back some have improved and some have declined. Additionally, during the opening 10 games of the 2024 season, Orlando City was also playing in the Concacaf Champions Cup, whereas in 2025 the Lions have had a steady one-game-per-week pace since the season opener.

While I would like to see the type of improvement in 2025 that we saw from the Lions in 2023 and 2024, I have some concerns about the fact that based on their opponents’ average points earned per game, the Lions have had the easiest schedule thus far this season and the hardest remaining schedule left. The Lions have played teams that average earning 1.13 points per game so far, and haven’t yet played teams that average earning 1.52 points per game. In particular, Orlando City still has to go to Charlotte, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Miami — all of which average at least 1.90 points per game, and all of those teams and Vancouver (2.30, best in MLS) will come to Inter&Co Stadium before the end of the season.

That is nine games remaining against the teams in first, second, third, fourth, and fifth in MLS, and no other team has a harder set of nine games remaining. That said, even though it may not feel like it due to the recent run of draws, after 10 games, Orlando City is actually tied for eighth overall in MLS in points per game and is fourth overall in goal differential (+6). This early in the season, it also means there are a lot of quirks in the schedule that will be less impactful over time, such as the fact that 40% of Orlando City’s games have been against the New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union.

Óscar Pareja’s Orlando City teams have always played solid soccer during games 11-34, and although some seasons did see a slight decline from the performance during games 1-10, it was never a decline down to the level of a team that frequently loses. This year’s team is a strong team with a defense that is gelling already (436 minutes and counting without giving up a goal) and an offense that is one of the most prolific in MLS, even while dealing with a lot of injuries.

I am a little concerned about having dropped points against some teams off to cold starts and also with the difficulty of the remaining schedule, but I think those teams are concerned about having to play Orlando City too. And they should be, because the Lions do not have any glaring weaknesses and, if anything, have actually underperformed, as will happen when you receive two red cards and are forced to play with 10 players in eminently winnable games.

That brings us back to 10, and while I do not give the start to this season a 10 in the style of Billy Bob from Varsity Blues, I do think Orlando City has performed well and is definitely one of the better teams in the league. I do not think that the club’s historical performance in games 11-34 will play any role in where this club finishes, but I think the talent and depth the Lions have already shown will, and I am holding to my prediction from the preseason that this is a top 10 team.