Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati

Orlando City picked up a great midweek win on Wednesday as it knocked off St. Louis City SC 4-2 on the road. The Lions will try to keep the good times rolling as they take on FC Cincinnati Saturday night at Inter&Co Stadium.

A showdown with Cincy means I spoke to Jose Guerra of the always excellent Cincinnati Soccer Talk. Jose was kind enough to give us the full rundown on how things have changed for FCC since these two teams last met.

Evander and Kevin Denkey have obviously been great signings, as Evander leads the team in assists and Denkey has the most goals. How have they managed to slot into the team so well and be this successful?

Jose Guerra: One of the key challenges for this team last year was the lack of consistent scoring. Cincinnati tried several players as strikers, including Yuya Kubo (who actually had a strong season scoring, but it was not his natural position), Corey Baird, Nicholas Gioacchini, Kevin Kelsy, and the late Aaron Boupenza. Unfortunately, most of the scoring came from either midfielders or wingers, and while it kept the team in the playoff hunt, it was clear that more consistency was needed at the front.

This gap and the departure of Luciano (Lucho) Acosta, which we’ll touch on in the next question, needed to be filled with certain urgency if the club was going to aspire to not only making the playoffs but winning trophies. Evander was certainly a huge signing since FCC finally seemed to have the number 9 it had been seeking since the departure of Brandon Vazquez at the end of 2023. But with Acosta leaving, the club then needed a creative 10. Enter Evander. He is not Acosta in the sense that Lucho could create plays out of nothing by dribbling, passing, or scoring. Evander is more of an orchestrator who also has dribbling, passing, and scoring skills. Whereas last year it was about getting the ball to Lucho, this year it’s more about distributing the ball among more players and expecting the trio of Evander, Denkey, and Luca Orellano to create the bulk of scoring opportunities.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint specific reasons for both Denkey’s and Evander’s strong performance, I believe it’s because both players have shown instances of brilliance, whether it’s because of strong, physically athletic play (e.g., Denkey’s scissor kick goal against Kansas City on April 26) or great technical skill (e.g., Evander’s free kick goal against Nashville on March 29). There have been some plays where they have been involved, along with Orellano, in creating opportunities and scoring. But overall, this trio has yet to show its full potential. They have not gelled in the way we would have expected them to do so by this time in the season. Whether or not it will happen soon is going to depend on the team reaching full strength health and international absences wise as well as (Head Coach Pat) Noonan’s ability to instill the type of tactical play he wants up front among these three players.

Luciano Acosta was obviously the big off-season departure, but who else went out the door for FCC and how have they been replaced?

JG: It’s interesting that you ask about departures. A quick analysis at www.fbref.com  shows that of the 32 players that went through FCC in 2024, a full 41% transitioned out for various reasons. Kevin Kelsy, striker, was on loan and the asking price was deemed too high given his below-average performance. Others were brought in as stopgap measures because of a decimated back line — 2023 Defender of the Year Matt Miazga had a season-ending injury against San Jose on June 15, 2024, and then Nick Hagglund also had a season-ending injury against New England on June 22, 2024 — such as center back Chidozie Awaziem. Striker Boupenza (RIP) was released after various non-performance and disciplinary issues and replaced by Gioacchini, who was also released at the end of the season. This, of course, in addition to Acosta.

What we knew is that all lines needed reinforcing except for goalkeeper, where Roman Celentano has shown he is a very strong shot stopper. The club wanted to close gaps on the pitch as well as provide bench strength.

With Miazga’s return date from his season-ending injury in 2024 uncertain at the beginning of the season, Hadebe was retained to provide consistency in the back line, and Gilberto Flores, a young promising center back from Paraguay, was added for depth purposes.

With Acosta leaving, FCC brought in a proven MVP-caliber player in Evander, who plays more of an orchestrator in the midfield than what Acosta did, which was a combination of orchestrator, individual brilliance, and goal scorer (we liked to say that during the Acosta era it was “all roads run through Acosta”). Also in the midfield, the team acquired Brian Anunga as a depth piece in the defensive midfielder position.

Denkey became the most expensive acquisition in MLS history when FC Cincinnati signed him for about $16 million (until Emmanuel Latte Lath was signed by Atlanta United for $22 million) and he is a proven number 9 who has already scored 11 goals in 18 games. After trying various players, such as Corey Baird (still with the team), Kelsy, and Boupenza, we feel Cincinnati finally landed a goal scorer that can not only fill the striker role but can also hold the ball, attract defenders, and even help create goal-scoring opportunities.

Are there any areas where you think the team can improve? Would those improvements come from tactical shifts or doing some business in the summer transfer window?

JG: Absolutely! In a 3-4-1-2 formation, we believe both left and right wingbacks could use an upgrade. While defensively both sides are good, FCC either lacks consistency on the left defensively or attacking depth on the right. Lucas Engel as a left wingback has shown moments of brilliance on the attack and solid defensive play. But he has been inconsistent. It’s important to note that at the moment he is playing as a left center back because of the absences of Miles Robinson (USMNT call-up) and Hagglund (recovering from surgery). DeAndre Yedlin on the right is very strong defensively, although at times he may be slow getting back on opposition breakaways, and the ability to create scoring opportunities in the final third is not his strong suit. In the midfield, while Pavel Bucha has been a very pleasant surprise this year with his overall performance, FCC still needs depth that can either provide backup for rotational or chance-creation purposes.

The other possibility is shifting to a back four, which would leverage the back line bench strength once Robinson returns from Gold Cup USMNT responsibilities and Hagglund is back from his injury against Philadelphia on May 25 of this year. However, we believe Noonan will continue using a three-back lineup with two wingbacks, which brings us back to the areas the team needs to strengthen.

Are any players unavailable due to injury, suspension, call-ups, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

JG: As of today, we know FCC won’t have Robinson, who is on USMNT duty at the Gold Cup, Hagglund due the injury already mentioned, and we don’t know the status of Sergio Santos, who was unavailable for Wednesday’s game against Montreal. In addition, star defensive midfielder Obi Nwobodo was subbed out in the second half due to an injury during the game. We don’t know his status yet.

Assuming neither Santos nor Nwobodo can start, and with the absences of Robinson and Hagglund, the probable lineup can be:

Roman Celentano; Lucas Engel, Matt Miazga, Gilberto Flores; Luca Orellano, Brian Anunga (or Yuya Kubo), Pavel Bucha, DeAndre Yedlin; Evander; Kevin Denkey, Kai Kamara (or Kubo).

It’s a challenge to predict a score with FCC at the moment, since it has been inconsistent. However, I believe FCC will lose this game 2-1 because of Orlando’s attacking prowess, coupled with FCC’s improvised back line.

Thank you to Jose for his excellent primer on FC Cincinnati. Vamos Orlando!