Orlando City: Contender or Pretender?

The dictionary definition of a mirage involves physics and how light bends as it travels through different air temperatures. I think exactly zero of you opened this article to read about science, so we can quickly move from the physics definition to the more generally used definition of mirage, which is that people think they see something, but what they see is not real.

Orlando City has played 20 real games of MLS soccer this season and currently sits fifth in the Eastern Conference and has the ninth best points earned per game rating in the entire league, but do those rankings reflect (see what I did there?) reality, and are the Lions one of the league’s best teams? Let’s take a look.

Orlando City is three games into the second half of the season — 59% of the way through the full season to be more precise — and at this point, there are still some scheduling quirks, but for the most part teams have played enough games that we can look at the results and not worry about a small sample size. The table below shows how the Lions performed at home and on the road as well as how they fared in games against teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the overall league rankings for points earned per game. You read each cell in the table as two different values, the first being the number of games played and the number after the slash is the average points earned per game.

• Top Third = Cin (H), Mia (A), Phi (A&H) Port (H)
• Middle Third = Char (H), Chi (A&H), Col (A), NE (H), NYC (A), NYRB (A&H)
• Bottom Third = Atl (A&H), D.C. (H), LA Gal (A), Mon (A), STL (A), Tor (H)

The schedule makers were fair to Orlando City, giving the team an even 10 home games and 10 away matches among their first 20 outings, and at the macro level the Lions were consistent, earning nearly the same points per game at home as they did on the road. Looking at the different segments, however, it is clear that Orlando beats up on the teams in the bottom third and then has mixed results against the teams ranked in the top and middle thirds.

This brings the mirage question back up, as teams in the bottom third will not qualify for the playoffs, and in games against the top two-thirds (the top 20 teams) in the league, Orlando City is 4-5-4, meaning the Lions earn points in most matches, but they are just as likely to win as they are to lose.

Looking at a performance table for the league’s top 10 teams, however, lends credence to the idea that that those might be real lions you see on the field when watching Orlando City. This table shows the average points earned per match by the top teams, and Orlando City is not alone among the top teams in how they earn their points.

I did not list out the performances of all 30 teams, but Orlando City’s 1.40 points earned per game against teams in the top third of MLS is tied for the sixth best in the entire league. The Lions struggle against the middle of the pack, ranking 18th, and then are elite again when it comes to playing the bottom teams (seventh).

Only two teams in the league are in the top 10 against teams in all three categories: Vancouver (sixth, fourth, third) and Columbus (ninth, second, fourth). Portland is the only team in MLS that has earned zero points against teams in the top third, but because the Timbers have only played three opponents in that category and because they have done well against the teams in the bottom 20, they are 10th overall in the league.

That’s enough talk about other teams for now, but it is important to note that the number of games against teams in each category weighs heavily on the overall ranking. Orlando City has had a varied schedule, but there are teams that have played as few as three games against top 10 teams and others who have played as many as nine. Teams have no control over their schedule, and since MLS has an unbalanced schedule every year, some teams get lucky or unlucky with their cross-conference games.

Orlando City has 14 games remaining, and while it has had a pretty varied schedule so far in terms of opponents, the club’s final 14 games are backloaded with teams currently in the top 10. This is not ideal, but it is how it is, and Óscar Pareja’s teams have been excellent closers in recent years, so if the Lions can do that again, they have a great chance to make some leaps up the table as half of their final 14 games are against teams above them in the overall standings.

• Top Third = Cin (A), Col (A&H), Mia (H), Nash (A&H), Van (H)
• Middle Third = Cha (A), NE (A), NYC (H)
• Bottom Third = D.C. (A), KC (H), Mon (H), Tor(A)

If Orlando City does not close well, however, the Lions could find themselves dropping rapidly down the table due to 10 of their final 14 games being against teams in the top 20. The draws against a weak CF Montréal team, a Chicago Fire team that played down a player for nearly 55 minutes, and a New England team that was beaten before Robin Jansson gave away a needless penalty kick in the final minutes will loom large no matter how the season ends up, but considering Orlando City was the better team or a man up in all three of those games and none of those teams is a top 10 team, those will be six huge dropped points in the final standings.

Playing the woulda/coulda/shoulda/didn’t game accomplishes nothing, but those extra six points would have the Lions tied with Cincinnati (which they also could have beaten or at least tied!) as the third-best team in the league in points earned per game, and that would just be from beating teams much lower in the overall standings.

Ugh.

So, where did we end up? Orlando City is a top 10 team in points per game and in points per game against top 10 teams, and our eye test (important in an evaluation of whether something is or is not a mirage) says that it probably should have earned more points than it did. The glass-half-empty side of “the Lions should have earned more points than they did,” however, is that multiple times they were unable to earn points that were there for the taking, and that is generally not a sign of a championship-caliber team.

With a backloaded schedule that is one of the more difficult ones in the league (only Nashville has more games left against teams in the top 10, and two of those are against Orlando City), the Lions will need to be ruthless and not play with their food when they have chances to eat during the final months. I am far more optimistic than pessimistic, both in general and also when looking at the 2025 Orlando City team, and I think the team will finish strong and be a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2024 team finished the season at 1.52 points earned per game, 8% lower than this year’s team’s current average of 1.65, and that team went all the way to the conference final. I believe this team is better than last year’s team, not just from those points earned per game, but also because of the talent of the players on the field, and that as Pareja’s teams often do, they will find their ideal lineup and get on a roll to end the season.

At least that is what I think I see out in front of us.

Vamos Orlando!