Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati

It hasn’t been the easiest of 2026 seasons for Orlando City, but things have been better lately. The Lions have started to pick up a few wins and booked a place in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals, thanks to a raucous midweek win over Atlanta United. With just one match remaining before going on break for the World Cup, OCSC will try to finish the first half of the season strong when it hits the road to take on FC Cincinnati.

A bout with Cincy means I spoke to Rupesh Sharma, one of the authors over at Cincinnati Soccer Talk. He was kind enough to bring us up to speed on this season’s iteration of FCC, and we appreciate his help.

Talk me through FCC’s off-season transfer business. Who went out the door, and who came in to replace them?

Rupesh Sharma: FCC did not have an especially busy transfer season. There were two major outbound transfers at the end of the 2025 season. Brenner returned to Italy after his loan spell with FCC ended.  The club tried to work out a permanent transfer but a deal could not be reached. Luca Orellano also left FCC, joining Monterrey. 

Inbound, FCC brought in Tom Barlow via free agency as depth on the forward line.  He has scored four goals in MLS play this season, including the last-second tying goal this past weekend in San Diego. The second major player brought in was left back Bryan Ramírez from Quito. Bryan is still finding his footing in MLS but has started most of the games this season.

Like Orlando, keeping the ball out of the net seems to have been an issue for Cincy, as the club has conceded the second-most goals in the league. What has been going wrong on the back line, and how does it get fixed?

RS: In 2025, the defense overperformed its underlying expected goal numbers, allowing about 20 fewer goals than expected.  This led to a belief that the team had a stronger defense than it did. A regression to the mean should have been expected, but that does not entirely explain why the defense has been so poor. My feeling is that the defense got old and that a lot of the players the club was going to lean on have been injured this year.  Each of the top four center backs in Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga, Teenage Hadebe, and Nick Hagglund have missed significant time. FCC may have found a solution to its “old” defense in 17-year old center back Andrei Chirilâ, who has come on and played significant minutes in three matches until he got a concussion against Miami.  I do not believe this defense is going to get better until it finds some more young talent.

Aside from the headline names of Evander and Kevin Denkey, who has been the most important player for Cincinnati up to this point?

RS: The most important under the radar player to me the last two seasons has been Pavel Bucha. Last season, he was the glue in the midfield and this season, he has played wherever Coach Noonan has asked him to. Bucha has started the last five games at right back, and after a rough first few minutes at the position, he has looked pretty good. He has a goal and three assists from right back this year.

Will any players be unavailable due to injuries, suspensions, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

RS: Miles Robinson took a knock in the first half of Saturday’s match in San Diego and according to Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press, he was not in training on Wednesday, so I would expect him to miss the match. 17-year-old Andrei Chirila, who has been a revelation this season, was in concussion protocol after the Miami match, but he has reportedly cleared it and could be available this week. Teenage Hadebe picked up a leg injury a few weeks ago, so I would expect him to miss this match.

I would expect the lineup to look something like this:

Roman Celentano; Kyle Smith, Matt Miazga, Nick Hagglund; Bryan Ramirez, Gerardo Valenzuela, Samuel Gidi, Pavel Bucha; Evander; Kevin Denkey, Kenji Dem.

[No score prediction provided.]

Thank you to Rupesh for the excellent primer on FC Cincinnati. Vamos Orlando!