Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati

Orlando City endured a fairly disappointing Leagues Cup campaign over the past week and a half, but given how things went after making a run in the tournament last year, I can’t say I’m too upset about that. The Lions have a chance to get back to winning ways Saturday, but in order to do so they’ll need to avenge the 6-2 walloping they received at the hands of FC Cincinnati back in May.

A visit from Cincy means I spoke to the good people at the outstanding Cincinnati Soccer Talk. As always, they did a great job of helping us get up to speed on how things have been going for the Knifey Lions, and we appreciate their help.

FC Cincinnati has been scoring for fun this year, and its 45 goals scored is joint-most in the league alongside Miami. What has made the offense so potent?

Cincinnati Soccer Talk: Through 18 league play matches, these 45 goals translate into 2.5 per match, the highest in the league alongside Miami. A big reason is the influence of Evander, who leads the club with 11 goals and 10 assists through 17 matches. Other contributors have been Kevin Denkey with 11 scores, substitute Tom Barlow with six, Pavel Bucha and Kenji Mboma Dem with four (each), and several others. Essentially this means that while Evander has provided the creativity, drive, and orchestration, there have been other contributors that last year were just not present. Also, Evander, Denkey, and Bucha have now played together for at least a year and fully understand their roles and tactical positioning.   

In a nutshell, what stands out tactically is that Cincinnati can hurt opponents in multiple ways:

• Quick transition attacks.
• Aggressive wingback play (which is only now starting to bear fruit).
• Dangerous service into the box.
• Midfield progression through players like Evander and Bucha.
• A willingness to commit numbers forward. 

The 6-2 victory over Orlando earlier this season was a perfect example. FCC repeatedly exploited space behind Orlando’s defense and punished mistakes in transition. 

The irony is that many of the same traits that make FCC dangerous offensively also contribute to the team’s defensive issues. There is no one reason why this has been a huge headache for Pat Noonan but a combination of injuries, underperforming of players such as Teenage Hadebe, aging players (e.g., Nick Hagglund), a midfield that left too much space and gave the ball away in dangerous situations (e.g., Obi Nwobodo not starting due to injury or other reasons), and wingbacks that either didn’t cover back fast enough or were exploited because of their lack of defensive skills relative to other wingbacks in the league, have contributed to the poor form of the back line.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t check in on Kyle Smith, who was a cult favorite in Orlando for a long time. How has he been doing this season?

CST: Kyle has been a substitute for the most part but has started when the team had to plug holes due to injury or congested schedules that forced rotation. He has played in 14 matches, logging 768 minutes (54.9 minutes per match). He is more of a veteran (in a) rotational role rather than an automatic starter. He plays one of three center backs in Nonna’s system (his preferred tactical lineup) and is seen as someone who can provide veteran leadership and dependability. Even if FCC has struggled defensively, he does bring experienced depth, but his lack of speed at times has been a liability. The bottom line is that he does his job but many don’t see him as the solution to FCC’s back line problems.

This is a team that both scores and concedes a lot of goals, Cincinnati games are never boring! Based on what you’ve seen up to this point, what should the minimum expectations be for the rest of the year?

CST: Minimum is making the playoffs. FCC sits six^th in the Eastern Conference and is already in a playoff spot. Missing the postseason from this position would not only be a major disappointment but would trigger all manner of questions around roster, talent, coaching, and front office. A lot of money has been spent on the roster (not all of it has resulted in expected performance from certain players and injuries have also added to that lack of performance) and ownership (not to mention the fan base) would want answers. 

A realistic expectation is at least one home playoff match, but we are also cognizant of the fact that this could disappear unless improvements are made in the back line. The attack is strong enough to push the team into the upper half of the Eastern bracket, possibly challenging for a top-four finish nut only if defensive performances improve. This version of FCC has only had two clean sheets in league play, which compares to five last year at this stage of the season. 

If FCC can become just average, defensively speaking, and that is a big if at the moment without new acquisitions, the attack is good enough to make them a dangerous playoff team that nobody may want to face.

Will anyone be unavailable due to injuries, suspensions, etc.? What is your projected starting XI and score prediction?

CST: As of today, only Dado Valenzuela won’t be available because of a two-match ban due to a red card in the Hell is Real match against the Columbus Crew on July 25. No injuries have been reported, so Noonan should have the full roster (other than Valenzuela) to form his lineup. 

Possible lineup would be: Roman Celentano; Samuel Gidi, Matt Miazga, Miles Robinson; Bryan Ramirez, Ender Echenique, Pavel Bucha, Obi Nwobodo, Evander; Kevin Denke, Kenji Mboma Dem.

We’d like to think Andrei Chirila, who has been performing well as a left center back, would get the call, but with Antoine Greizmann in the lineup, Noonan may decide for experience, especially given the porous back line FCC currently has.

This could be a high-scoring match or both teams, knowing their defensive weaknesses, might decide to play it safe and not risk too much. We believe a draw is very possible, either 2-2 or 3-3 (but we wouldn’t be surprised if FCC loses).

Thank you to the good people over at CST for the excellent refresher on Cincinnati. Vamos Orlando!