Gambler’s Guide to Major League Soccer Week 11



Last week was a big one, as the pairing of FC Dallas and the New England Revolution proved to be a fruitful one, nearly tripling your wager when parlayed. We’re on the lookout for more moneymakers this week, as my record on the year inches closer and closer to .500.

Now, for the usual intro.

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For the uninitiated, odds are generally presented in three forms — a "spread," a "moneyline," and a "total."

The spread is the goal difference expected. For example, if the spread for Orlando City is +1.5, you’ll want them to win, draw, or lose by one goal to win the wager. Losing by two or more goals would result in losing the wager.

The moneyline is my personal favorite. A moneyline is simple — odds are presented, and you select the outcome you expect — Team A win, Team B win, or Draw. The total is the total number of goals scored this game.

Odds are presented with a number preceded by either a + or a -. When the number is presented after a +, this means that selection is an underdog. The number following the + is the amount of money the odds pay out for every $100 risked. When the number is presented as a -, this means that selection is a favorite. The number following the – is the amount of money you will need to risk for odds to pay out $100.

To improve your odds, you can always play what's called a "parlay." A favorite of mine, with this option you can select winners across multiple games, and watch your payouts soar. The risk, however, is if you miss any one contest on your parlay, you've lost the entire bet.

(Note: These odds were pulled from BetDSI, and may not reflect lines posted by your sportsbook of choice.)

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Easy Money

Sporting Kansas City (-115) host Real Salt Lake (+328) in a contest between two Western Conference clubs trending in different directions. Real started the season well enough, but have seen themselves slide to sixth on the table on the heels of back-to-back 1-0 defeats on the road. The returning Yura Movsisyan has played well, but has managed to find the net just twice in 10 games thus far.

Kansas City was most recently seen topping our Orlando City Lions 2-1 in their own building for their third home and fifth overall win of the season. There’s no doubt that Dom Dwyer — who has scored five goals in 11 MLS appearances — will be looking to make the Real defense that has allowed 12 road goals pay. The Pick: Sporting Kansas City.

Feeling Lucky?

The line looks a bit off when the Colorado Rapids (+315) visit the Seattle Sounders (-107). The Sounders have been rebounding well from a disastrous start to the season, beefing their home record up to 4-2 with clean sheets of 2-0 and 1-0 over the Sharks and Crew in their two most recent efforts in Seattle. While they surely aren’t as bad as their first few weeks appeared, I don’t believe the ceiling is particularly high for this Sounders roster.

Meanwhile, the Rapids have been on a tear, pacing MLS with 24 points. If you're uncomfortable with the fact they've only won once on the road, a safer play would be the Rapids against the spread of +0.5 (-113). With three draws on the road, it's actually more favorable than the Sounders outright. The Pick: Colorado Rapids

My Play

It’s hard to ignore Inchy’s Boys (+117) giving favorable odds at home against the Montreal Impact (+233). At over six weeks since winning three points, you have to believe that the Lions are due for a win. The safer play, though, is betting over (-122) on the total. The teams have combined for 3.45 goals seen per game in this game’s circumstance (combined OC at home, Impact on the road). The Pick: Over 2.5 goals

2016 Record

Easy Money — 6-11

Feeling Lucky — 2-13

My Play — 13-16


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