A Look at NWSL Shield Winners’ Late Season Form and Performance in the Playoffs

Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium, the Orlando Pride finished their NWSL Shield-winning regular season with a 3-2 victory over the Seattle Reign. Orlando showed some of the same warning signs in this match that plagued the club in its previous two losses at the Portland Thorns and Gotham FC, including poor defending, especially from set pieces. This dip in form came in matches that didn’t carry the same weight for Orlando after the Pride clinched the top spot in the league, but they will have to get back on track in a hurry for the playoffs.

Orlando was the best team in the NWSL during the regular season, but to evaluate how form can be a factor in crowning a champion, this piece will open the history books to compare Orlando’s performances in the final matches to prior NWSL Shield and championship-winning clubs.

Before looking at recent NWSL trophy winners’ end-of-season performances, it is important to contextualize Orlando’s end to the season. Over the final five matches, the Pride racked up three wins and their only two losses of the season. The Pride won the shield with three games remaining on the calendar, which created a strange situation for the club. These remaining matches mattered less in context, and due in part to tough matchups, heavy lineup rotation, and maybe some drop in concentration, the Pride had just one win and two losses to close the campaign.

In the 11 matches leading up to winning the Shield, the Pride only conceded two goals, but in the three matches since, they have conceded seven times. Returning to their defensive roots, quickly and without Rafaelle, who is now out for the year, will be critical for Orlando’s chances in the playoffs.

After looking at the Pride’s form, it can be compared to prior NWSL Shield and championship winners from each of the previous five seasons:

The good news for Orlando is there is some precedence for the Pride’s situation. In both 2018 and 2019, the shield-winning North Carolina Courage went on to win the NWSL championship as well. Each season, the Courage dropped a result or two in the final games, before getting a final-day win to propel them into the playoffs. These teams were two of the best ever in the NWSL, winning the shield with four games and two games left to be played, respectively. With the Pride’s win against Seattle on Saturday, they surpassed the 2018 Courage team to break the record for the most points and the most wins in a single regular season, showing just how special this season has been so far.

Since the North Carolina Courage completed back-to-back domestic doubles, the NWSL Shield winners have not won a playoff game, let alone the NWSL championship. In each season from 2018 to 2023, the shield winner had fewer points than the year before, showcasing the league’s parity. In 2021, the Portland Thorns struggled mightily down the stretch, winning only one of their final five games. That year it was the Washington Spirit, undefeated in their final seven regular-season matches, that took home the trophy. The following year, the shield-winning Reign lost in the first round despite coming into the playoffs on a seven-match unbeaten streak. That season, the Thorns won the NWSL championship after a five-match unbeaten run to close the regular season. Both of these years, hot teams kept their streaks going into the playoffs to win it all, regardless of who won the shield.

The 2023 NWSL campaign stands out as one of the more unique seasons. The San Diego Wave won a tight shield race on the final day despite accumulating only 37 points. Then, Gotham, which just barely beat out the Orlando Pride for the final playoff spot on goal differential, won the NWSL championship despite poor form to close the season. San Diego’s early exit from the playoffs continued a trend of tight shield races followed by first-round losses. This pattern, shown below, highlights how Orlando’s early shield win has more in common with the 2018 and 2019 Courage teams than recent shield winners.

The table above shows some correlation between how tight a shield race is to the playoff result of the winner. This pattern could be explained by how hard a team is working in the final weeks of the season to win a trophy before running out of steam for the playoffs. On the other hand, it may show that tight races mean there are multiple good teams capable of winning the NWSL championship, unlike the 2018 and 2019 seasons, in which the Courage were a step above the opposition.

The Pride will hope that winning the shield early means they are fresh and well rested for the playoffs. If not, the other top teams in the league have been in great form at the end of the year, as Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City have each only dropped points in one of their final five matches heading into the playoffs.

At the end of the regular season, it was clear that the Orlando Pride’s form had dipped after winning the NWSL shield. The win against Seattle on the final day of the regular season was a step in the right direction, but unconvincing. A look at the history books shows that the best teams in NWSL history have been able to win both the NWSL Shield and championship. For Orlando to stake its claim as having had the best season in league history, the Pride will need to reverse their form and defeat some of the hottest teams in the league.