Predicting Orlando City’s July Results

Orlando City’s slate of June matches has come to an end, and the Lions are now staring down the barrel of a busy group of July matches. OCSC will play six games this month, with an even split between home and away games. I did a pretty decent job at forecasting the three June games, as I accurately predicted wins (scorelines not withstanding) against the Colorado Rapids and St. Louis City SC, although my powers of divination went a little haywire as the Lions lost to FC Cincinnati rather than battling to a draw. Time to test my prophetic tendencies against a larger sample size, as I peek into the crystal ball and predict Orlando’s July contests.

Saturday, July 5 — at Charlotte FC

Things get started Saturday when the Lions hit the road to take on Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium. This will be the second meeting between the two teams this year after OCSC took down Charlotte 3-1 back on May 14 at Inter&Co Stadium. Charlotte is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference with 25 points from 20 games. The team has been in a rough run of form recently, having lost all three games in June to the Philadelphia Union, Sporting Kansas City, and Chicago Fire. While Orlando will be without the services of Alex Freeman, Charlotte is missing both Tim Ream and Patrick Agyemang, who are also with the United States Men’s National Team. Given the opposition’s current form and the key players Charlotte will be missing, I like Orlando’s chances in this one.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Charlotte FC.

Saturday, July 12 — vs. CF Montreal

Montreal is another team that OCSC will be playing for the second time, following the first meeting of the year that ended in a scoreless draw, which saw Rafael Santos sent off after picking up a pair of yellow cards on the road. While Orlando was offensively anemic on that occasion, the fortunes of the two teams have gone in different directions as Montreal is last in the East with 14 points from 20 matches. The Canadians were better during June and won games against the Houston Dynamo and New York City FC while losing to FC Cincinnati. They’ll be coming off short rest after a match against Forge FC on July 9, and will then have to play the Union midweek on July 16. I like the Lions’ chances at home, and I’ll back them to make it two wins in a row.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 CF Montreal.

Wednesday, July 16 — vs. New York City FC

The Lions then get a second match in a row at home and a second match against a team it played earlier in the year. The first time around it went the way things usually do for OCSC at Yankee Stadium, as the good guys lost 2-1 in a disjointed effort. Orlando will get the chance to even the series, but it won’t be easy against an NYCFC team that always seems to give the Lions a tough time. That being said, the Pigeons have just one road win this year, which came against Toronto FC back on April 26 in a 1-0 win. OCSC will be on short rest, but I think New York’s road struggles give the men in purple the slight edge they’ll need.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-2 NYCFC.

Saturday, July 19 — at New England Revolution

Orlando then hits the road for its second meeting of the year with the Revs, following a wild 3-3 draw at home back on May 10. The Revs are currently 11th in the East with 24 points from 18 games, and they’ve got a tricky run of games leading up to Orlando’s visit, with a road match against Austin FC on July 12, and a road game against the New York Red Bulls on July 16. That being said, Orlando has historically had a positively horrific time at Gillette Stadium, and only picked up its first-ever win at that venue last July. Despite the differences between Orlando and New England in the standings, this one just feels like a bridge too far. Coming off a crowded run of games and playing at a place they’ve traditionally struggled, I don’t see the Lions getting the job done here.

Prediction: Orlando City 1-2 New England Revolution.

Friday, July 25 — at Columbus Crew

The Lions then get a rare Friday game when they hit the road to take on the Columbus Crew in the first meeting of the year between the two sides. The Crew are currently fourth in the East with 37 points from 20 games, and Diego Rossi is having a typically great season with nine goals and four assists in 19 games. The two teams are closely matched from a statistical standpoint, as they’ve each given up 26 goals, and Columbus has scored 31 while Orlando has 37. As Andrew DeSalvo noted, the Lions have played five games so far against teams in the top third of the league rankings for points per game, and the 1.4 ppg Orlando is averaging against those teams is tied for sixth best in the league. Columbus is a team that usually gives the Lions a tough time, and the good guys will have a trio of Leagues Cup games against Liga MX sides looming on the horizon. I think OCSC will drop points on the road for the second game in a row.

Prediction: Orlando City 0-1 Columbus Crew.

Wednesday, July 30 — vs. Pumas

It’s hard to have a good read on the Mexican side, as the Apertura season doesn’t start until July 12. In the 2024 Clausura season, Pumas finished 10th and narrowly qualified for the play-in portion of the final league phase. It advanced to the bracket proper as the seventh seed, but lost in the first round to Cruz Azul by an aggregate score of 4-2. As far as Concacaf Champions Cup, Pumas was knocked off by Vancouver on away goals in the quarterfinals. Orlando will have the advantage of playing at home, as it will do for all three of its group stage games in Leagues Cup. I expect Oscar Pareja to come out with guns blazing in an effort to start the competition off strong with a win, and that’s exactly what I think the Lions will do.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Pumas.

If everything goes as predicted, the Lions will have a pretty tidy month of July. All we can do now is sit back and see how things unfold. Vamos Orlando!