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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls

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It’s Friday once again, and that means another Orlando City match is almost upon us. This week, the Lions will try to stop their poor run of form in league play against a team they had some recent success against in the U.S. Open Cup.

That’s right, the New York Red Bulls are next up for OCSC, and that means I spoke with Ben Cork, managing editor of SBNation’s Once a Metro. As usual, Ben did an excellent job in getting us caught up on NYRB.

New York signed Elias Manoel during the summer transfer window. What do you expect him to bring to the team?

Ben Cork: Well, unfortunately it appears the question is becoming one of how many minutes Elias will get at all. The Brazilian forward will be joining from Gremio on a loan with an option to purchase, but with the deal only getting finalized at the transfer deadline last week there is still weeks of visa red tape to cut through.

But should Elias arrive in time to make an impact over the season’s final weeks, it will be improving the team’s wide play in the final third. A youth fullback-turned-winger who has recently been trained as a line-leading central striker, Elias could replicate fellow Brazilian attacker Luquinhas and the x-factor he brought to a stalling Red Bulls attack earlier this year. If he can pounce on the second balls created by the team’s long play, he could be dangerous in the pragmatic attacking system Gerhard Struber will be running in the season’s closing stretch.

The Red Bulls seem to have found their shooting boots a bit, scoring four goals against both Austin and Colorado in recent weeks. What worked so well offensively in those games?

BC: Austin was a peculiar game because it was something of a showcase for several players who have been demoted in the squad pecking order by Gerhard Struber over the summer. Rotating ahead of the fateful cup semifinal against you know who, the Red Bulls saw a more fluid attack with combination through the middle between Patryk Klimala, Caden Clark, and man of the match Dru Yearwood (as well as the running of teenage sensation Serge Ngoma) charging the team’s lethal first-half performance.

Colorado, on the other hand, was a more conventional lineup and performance within the context of Struber’s reign in New York, with the team’s high press smothering Colorado deep in their own half and forcing goals in, such as a deflected Yearwood blast, an Aaron Long set piece header, and a Lewis Morgan penalty, making for the game’s opening punches. With Struber stating the team will be somewhat more pragmatic defensively after the collapses against Orlando and Colorado, look for the Red Bulls to focus on set piece danger and long passes and shots rather than chance-carving.

NYRB is sitting pretty at fourth in the Eastern Conference, and is in position to have a high playoff seed. What constitutes a successful season for this team?

BC: It’s been a strange season in New York, with paradoxes everywhere. The team combined a perfect away record with anemic results at home in the season’s opening months, and when such form evened out in the spring it was good enough to put the Red Bulls into conference and even Supporters Shield contention. But an inconsistent summer has seen the team slip down the table before a series of demoralizing results in the cup and league in recent weeks rattled the team’s mindset.

The squad’s captain, Aaron Long, said postgame last week that the team has settled on a home playoff game through fourth in the conference as their concrete goal for the season’s final weeks. Such an achievement would be a welcome one for a fanbase that hasn’t seen such a fixture since 2018 and a young squad growing in confidence, but it still feels like a mild letdown after the promise of the season’s first half.

Are there any players that will be unavailable due to injuries, suspensions, etc? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

BC: The team is fairly healthy at the moment with some conspicuous exceptions. Obviously the aforementioned Elias Manoel is still dealing with paperwork and not with the team yet, while utility defender Tom Edwards has now been away from the team for nearly two weeks on personal leave amid speculation about a return to parent club Stoke City. But the rest of the senior squad is fairly healthy, and deadline day signings Kyle Duncan and Tyler Pasher have already begun training with the team. Saturday’s home game on a full week’s rest should be a glimpse at what Gerhard Struber sees as his preferred 11 at the moment.

* Projected lineup and score prediction not provided.


Big thank you to Ben for the great information on the Red Bulls. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/4/25

Orlando City gets ready for the Philadelphia Union, OCSC partners with Footy Access, USWNT prepares for Brazil, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Happy Friday! It may feel a bit like the calm before the storm today, as Orlando City, Orlando City B, and the United States Women’s National Team are all in action on Saturday. It all makes for a fun next few days and I’m looking forward to it and also watching some kart racing on Sunday. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Gets Ready For the Philadelphia Union

The Lions are back in action Saturday with an away game against the Philadelphia Union at 7:30 p.m. Orlando has won its past two games and leads the league with 15 goals this season. The Union remain near the top of the Eastern Conference, but have lost two of their past three games. Duncan McGuire detailed how healthy competition and a willingness to defend has the offense firing on all cylinders heading into this match.

This will also be a rematch of the season opener on Feb. 22 when the Union won 4-2 at Inter&Co Stadium. Philadelphia Union Head Coach Bradley Carnell spoke on how Orlando is a different team compared to that match due to changes on offense and center back Robin Jansson’s recovery from a knock.

Orlando City Partners With Footy Access

With the Generation Adidas Cup set to take place later this month, Orlando City has partnered with Footy Access, which is a media company focused on youth soccer. This collaboration means fans will be able to enjoy highlights and interviews from Orlando’s academy as it progresses through the tournament. I’m pretty excited about being able to see how well Orlando’s academy is doing.

MLS NEXT also announced that new rankings focused on development rather than results will be used for its U-13 and U-14 age groups. These rankings will use an analytical formula that measures game play and the caliber of offensive and defensive actions. There will also be encouragement for teams to have their own identities on how they want to play.

USWNT Prepares to Face Brazil in Friendlies

The United States Women’s National Team will take on Brazil on Saturday in the first of two friendlies this international break, with the second match set for Tuesday. These friendlies will be rematches of last year’s Olympic gold medal match, which the U.S. won 1-0. Marta has retired from international soccer, but Pride midfielder Angelina was called up for these friendlies, along with former Pride forward Adriana. Lorena, who has only conceded one goal in three games for the Kansas City Current this season, will likely get the start in goal for Brazil behind a talented back line anchored by Tarciane. The USWNT will need to find ways to limit attacking threats like Kerolin and Gabi Portilho as well. These should be matches, with familiar faces on both sides for Orlando fans.

U.S. Set to Host 2031 Women’s World Cup

It looks like the 2031 Women’s World Cup will be held in the U.S., as FIFA President Gianni Infantino stated that the only bid came from the U.S. and potentially other Concacaf nations. The U.S., which withdrew from hosting the 2027 World Cup, would be the first country to host the tournament three times and last hosted it in 2007. The United Kingdom was also revealed as the lone valid bid to host the 2035 World Cup and it would be the first time the tournament is hosted there.

Free Kicks

  • Shout out to Orlando City’s U-19 team for its title win and securing a spot in the MLS NEXT Cup playoffs.

That’s all for this fine Friday, I hope you all have a fantastic day and a relaxing weekend!

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Orlando City Relies on Starters More Than Any Other MLS Team

An analysis of Óscar Pareja’s early lineup choices and substitution patterns and how that compares to the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Legendary swordsman Inigo Montoya, a man who is not lefthanded, once opened a conversation by asking the Dread Pirate Roberts if, by any chance, he had six fingers on his right hand. Nobody will need to prepare to die by the end of this column, but I will ask a similar question: I don’t mean to pry, but did you by any chance happen to realize that we are already more than one-sixth of the way through the MLS regular season? Six fingers, one-sixth of the season…close enough. Let’s go.

Time flies when you are having fun, and somehow Orlando City has already played 540 minutes of MLS soccer this season. I consider 500 minutes played to be a cutoff amount when looking at player and lineup performance, and with the conclusion of the most recent game in Los Angeles, the team has now surpassed that 500-minute threshold.

In looking at the opening 540 minutes, I was surprised to see how much continuity I found in the minutes played, considering how many injuries the Lions have had to work around during these first six games. In just the first six games, Orlando City has already had full games missed due to injury by César Araujo (1), David Brekalo (2), Robin Jansson (2), Duncan McGuire (3) and Nico Rodriguez (5). Brekalo and Pedro Gallese both missed a game for international duty as well. McGuire was not expected back during the first set of games, but all of those other players, with the possible exception of Rodriguez, were expected to contribute during the early part of the season.

These absences led to games where the substitutes list was full of players who will play big minutes for Orlando City B this year, but not players who Óscar Pareja was likely to turn to off the bench unless the game was out of hand or he was absolutely desperate. According to Opta’s tracking through the opening six games, Orlando City ranks last in MLS in the average minutes played by its substitutes, as the average amount of time per appearance for the players off the bench for the Lions is only 12 minutes. For context, 16 teams have an average amount of time per substitute appearance of 20 minutes or greater, and Inter Miami and Toronto are tied with a league-leading 27 minutes per substitute appearance.

The interesting thing about those two teams, Miami and Toronto, is that Miami leads the league in points per match with 2.6 and Toronto is second from the bottom with a scant 0.33 points per match. I think a lot of this data will even out over time, as right now there are several teams, including Miami, that are playing in multiple competitions and trying to keep players fresh for all of their matches.

When it comes to Orlando City, however, that is not the case, and thus far there has just been the standard one game per week on six consecutive Saturdays. The players are rested for each game. The issue has just been that Pareja has not had the depth and variety of players he thought he would have to bring off the bench to protect a lead or chase a deficit.

We often joke in articles or on The Mane Land PawedCast about how “Óscar gonna Óscar,” and once he finds a lineup he likes, he sticks with it. Even with all the injuries he has somehow managed to do this again this season, as you can see from the chart below. I started tracking lineup data last season, and even though the 2025 season is only six games old and there have been so many absences from key players this season, it was striking to see that the 11-man lineup that has played the most minutes together this season already outranks all but two lineups from the entire 2024 MLS season (including the five playoff games!):

Now, it is a little unfair to the one 2025 lineup on the above chart that it has such a negative goal differential per 90 minutes, because if it is only the 10 field players, with goalkeeper excluded, then that lineup has played 215 minutes together and has a +0.84 goal differential per 90 minutes. That group is +4 with Javier Otero in net in 74 minutes together, and removing the goalkeepers from the calculation turns that negative goal differential into a positive.

What that also tells us, however, is that when it comes to the 10 field players, Pareja has played the same unit in the field for 40% (215/540) of the team’s minutes already. Granted it is early in the season, but after six MLS games last season, the lineup that had played together the most had played a grand total of 74 minutes together (14% of all minutes). The top five most used lineups in last season’s opening six MLS games combined to play 302 minutes, or 56% of all minutes, and in 2025 it is 402 minutes, or 80%. My math, and everyone else’s math, says that is a much higher percentage and indicates that the team is focused on continuity early.

That continuity thus far this season has paid dividends, with the Lions earning 10 points from the first six games, twice as nice as last season’s five points after the first six games. Last year, the team was balancing midweek Concacaf Champions Cup games in addition to injuries and an international break during the opening weeks of the MLS season, so there were some good reasons for the lineup rotation and the slow start. This year’s squad will have to navigate two upcoming cup tournaments in the coming months, and so we likely will see a lot of new lineup configurations or more rotation once the U.S. Open Cup starts in May and then again when Leagues Cup starts in July.

Thus far though, Pareja has been able to stick with his starters deep into matches, and has only given playing time to 20 players, which is tied for third fewest across all of MLS. Fan bases often clamor for the coach to “play the kids,” but while Pareja has had young and inexperienced players on the senior roster for every game, he really has only given significant minutes to Alex Freeman from the group of players that could be referred to as “the kids.” Gustavo Caraballo has played nine minutes, which is incredible for a 16-year-old (15-year-old Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia is the only player younger than Caraballo to have played this season, and he has also played only nine minutes), and new signing Nico Rodriguez (20 years old) has played 11 minutes, but the next three youngest players to play are all at least 22 and were with the senior club last season (Otero and Ramiro Enrique) or came to the club after four seasons of college soccer (23-year-old, but nearly 24-year-old, Joran Gerbet).

The team’s record thus far shows that Pareja has been right to limit the minutes to the small group of players he trusts, and with one game per week for the next six weeks it will be interesting to see if the early trend of starters playing long minutes and only a few players getting all the minutes off the bench continues. The next match is on the road against Philadelphia, which so rudely came into Orlando and defeated the Lions 4-2 in the season opener, and my expectation is that while we likely will not see any players make their season debut in this game, I do think we will see a different starting lineup than the season opener and probably a different one than the game last weekend against the Galaxy.

No matter who the Lions go with, I am sure they will want to avenge the season-opening loss and bring three points back home to Orlando.

As we wish.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City at Philadelphia Union: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points on the road against Philly?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City is on the road yet again, this time heading to Pennsylvania to take on the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park Saturday night. The Lions will look to get a second road win in a row after the smash-and-grab victory against the LA Galaxy. Things don’t get any easier with the Union sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference, but a win would catapult Orlando City above Philadelphia in the standings. Here’s what Orlando City needs to do to earn all three points against the Philadelphia Union.

Tie up Tai

Tai Baribo leads the way-too-early-to-call Golden Boot race with six goals in five matches. The Union striker has taken 13 shots, putting eight on target and the aforementioned six in the back of the net. He scored a brace in the season opener against Orlando to bag a third of those goals. It’s a pretty easy call to say stopping the league leader in goals is an important part of shutting down the Philadelphia attack.

It will be up to Cesar Araujo and whichever center back pairing we get to shut Baribo down. Of course, he’s not the only one the Lions need to worry about since the Union also have striker Mikael Uhre, and midfielders Daniel Gazdag and Jovan Lukic providing goals and assists. The point is that Philadelphia is second only to the Lions in offensive production with 13 goals compared to Orlando City’s 15 goals.

Formation Change

In the last match against the LA Galaxy, the Lions struggled to get things going with Luis Muriel up top, Ojeda at the No. 10 spot and Ivan Angulo on the left. Once Duncan McGuire came on, Muriel shifted back, Ojeda went wide, and Angulo subbed off. That really opened up the attack and allowed the Lions to get the two goals needed to secure the victory.

Perhaps Oscar Pareja could start things off like that against Philadelphia. Angulo hasn’t been great the last few matches, and perhaps some time on the bench will get his head straight. McGuire is still early in his return from injury, but Ramiro Enrique can start up top with Big Dunc coming in later as he has the last few matches. I think making this change could help Orlando City get an early goal on the road.

Vengeance is Thine

When the two teams met on opening day, the Union dropped four goals on Orlando City in Inter&Co Stadium. You would think it a completely dominating performance, but the Lions actually had more shots, more shots on target, and more possession than the Union. Philadelphia simply put each of its four shots on target past Pedro Gallese. That type of luck is unlikely to happen again.

Since that time, the Orlando City defense has stiffened — at least a little bit — and the team has been more difficult to break down. I’m not saying the defense is as stalwart as last season, but it has improved. Orlando City needs to use that four-goal drubbing at the hands of the Union to galvanize the defense to enact revenge with a multi-goal victory of its own.


That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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