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Intelligence Report: Scouting Orlando City at New York City FC

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Orlando City has two points in two matches. While two draws to open the season might have been applauded just a year ago, they smack of disappointment in 2016. The club had a man advantage for a significant number of minutes in both games and failed to capitalize. Too many chances have gone wanting and the final ball seems to be teasingly absent.

Still, another game gives us hope for that elusive first victory. Yankee Stadium seems an unlikely place to get it. Orlando City hasn’t fared well on the narrow baseball field configurations the team has seen in its first year as a Major League Soccer franchise (one in MLS and two friendlies against lower leagues). Orlando City won and drew NYCFC at home and lost on the road a year ago.

This year, the New Yorkers seem to be in better early season form than Orlando. But the game must still be played and anything can happen when Cyle Larin travels to the Big Apple. Here to help us scout tonight’s opponent is Jake Gofman from our NYCFC sister blog, Hudson River Blue. And if you want to see how I responded to their questions, you can check that out here.

What are New York City FC’s key off-season additions and subtractions that we should know about and how have they affected the team?

Jake Gofman: NYCFC focused on improving its porous defense this off-season, so many of our key signings are on that side of the ball. Our most high-profile additions were internationals, including LB Ronald Matarrita from Costa Rica, CB Frederic Brillant from Belgium, and CDM Federico Bravo from Argentina. I think Jack Harrison, who we acquired in the SuperDraft via trade, would be included as a big addition for the club but he has yet to see the field. We also added some depth on defense by bringing in MLS veterans Mikey Lopez and Ethan White.

Matarrita has been plugged into the starting XI and has played very well, doing an excellent job of defending on the outside and working the ball into the midfield following successful tackles. He has good control of the ball and has great speed on the outside, which allows him to contribute to the attack and track back when required.

Brillant, on the other hand, has had a shaky go of things to start his MLS career. The 30-year old was brought in to provide stability, but has looked vulnerable at times as he adjusts to MLS.

Federico Bravo is a big addition to the club because of how he allows us to play. He is a hybrid CDM-CB in our 3-2-4-1, providing cover at the back for Jason Hernandez and in front for Andrea Pirlo. Matarrita is likely our most talented signing, but Bravo may be our most important.

Many of the subtractions to the squad came from the defense as well, with our biggest being the losses of Angelino, Shay Facey and Chris Wingert. Facey and Angelino were expected to return back to Manchester City, so their departure was an inevitability. Wingert was a solid player who made 25 appearances for NYC, but his loss is not devastating and was also anticipated. The most surprising loss was our trade of CM Andrew Jacobson. Jacobson appeared in 33 games for New York, but was likely shipped out because the midfield was getting too crowded.

In all, I think NYC brought in much more talent than they lost, and the contributions from the new players have been encouraging to start the season.

NYCFC is on its second manager in just a little over a season in the league. How has Patrick Vieira changed things from the Jason Kreis days?

JG: All things considered, firing Kreis was probably unfair to the manager. He was asked to build a culture and philosophy with an incomplete squad, and it certainly didn’t help that two of our DPs sauntered into the team after their European domestic seasons ended. Kreis had a style he wanted to instill and the team looked like it was getting there in the summer, only for New York to stumble towards the end of the season. That being said, Kreis made some tactical and squad-related decisions that drove fans crazy, mostly with how he interchanged the defense almost every game. Many supporters questioned the firing, and the hiring of Vieira from the ranks at City Football Group was provocative to say the least.

Vieira gradually gained the trust of fans, however, with his transparent and humble demeanor. I think many supporters see him as genuinely interested in growing with the club, and his outgoing personality is a welcome change from Kreis’s prickly demeanor. Tactically, Vieira, like Kreis, wants to play a ball-control game that produces aesthetically pleasing play.

Unlike Kreis, Vieira has shown himself to be more aggressive with the formation. The manager worked with the team in preseason on implementing a back three with Bravo playing as the hybrid, and he only waited one match before implementing it against Toronto FC. Vieira has also shown his resolute nature early, sending strong messages to the players for what he expects. For example, he came out early and told the media that Lampard and Pirlo were not going to play together in a three man midfield at any point. Additionally, he has been critical of Kwadwo Poku and has indicated that Poku must learn the game before he plays with the first team.

So far, so good for Vieira, with four points out of six, but his hiring was certainly a bit of a shock and if things go sour fans may not give him the same amount of patience they gave Kreis.

What kind of formation and tactics can we expect from New York City FC this weekend against what is most likely going to be some variation of a 4-3-2-1 or 4-3-3 by Orlando City, and what do you view as the game’s key match-up?

JG: I would expect another three man back line again, with Bravo starting in between the midfield and the back three. The formation would be a 3-2-4-1 and it allows us to flex our muscle in the midfield and control the pace of the game. It can also leave us exposed at the back, and requires a full team effort for 90 minutes. This formation also highlights the importance of having athletic, two-way wingers who can track back defensively as well as initiate the attack and take their defenders on one-on-one. Khiry Shelton has been excellent so far in this role, and has provided plenty of cover for Frederic Brillant who is still settling into the team.

The key to the game will be these matchups on the outside. When Shelton and fellow winger Tony Taylor are caught out on attack, it leaves NYC exposed to the counter and requires strong one-v-one defending. I would anticipate Cyle Larin and Kevin Molino looking to exploit these opportunities and match-ups. How they play out on Friday could be the determining factor in the game.

What is your anticipated starting XI and score prediction for tonight?

JG: I think we see a similar formation to what we played against Toronto with the inclusion of Andoni Iraola at RB instead of Frederic Brillant.

Here’s our lineup prediction: Josh Saunders; Ronald Matarrita, Jason Hernandez, Andoni Iraola; Andrea Pirlo, Federico Bravo; Tony Taylor, Thomas McNamara, Mix Diskerud, Khiry Shelton; David Villa.

As for the match, I think both clubs have the firepower to make this a high-scoring affair. I see a 3-2 NYCFC win this, with goals coming from Larin and Molino, and on NYCFC’s side, from Villa, Shelton, and Mix.

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Big thanks to Jake from HRB for giving us some insight on Orlando City’s fellow 2015 expansion side. These opposing team bloggers keep predicting Kevin Molino goals. It’s bound to happen sooner or later!

Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union

Find out how the season has been treating the Philadelphia Union since the two teams met in the season opener.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City has strung two wins together for the first time in the 2025 Major League Soccer season, and now the Lions will try to make it three on the bounce. Along with the chance to extend the winning streak to three games comes the opportunity for revenge against the Philadelphia Union. The Union got the better of Orlando in the first game of the season to the tune of a 4-2 victory, and now we’ll have a chance to see what sort of progress OCSC has made since then.

Before that, though, I spoke to Matt Ralph, the managing editor of Philadelphia Soccer Now, to see how things have been going for Philly since that first game of the season. He was kind enough to help get us up to speed on a Union side that’s been one of the best in the league so far.

The Union don’t seem to have had much problem in adjusting to how Bradley Carnell wants to play. What’s made this team so successful through its opening six games?

Matt Ralph: The players have bought in, and the new additions have fit in well. One of Carnell’s strengths is his communication, and like Jim Curtin before him, he has done a great job of being consistent with his messaging and has created a challenging training environment that has prepared his players well week to week. Carnell has put his stamp on the “Philly tough” approach, no doubt, but many of the ingredients were already in place, and if anything, he’s cranked things up another notch with the intensity he expects day to day in training and within the 90 minutes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but both losses have shown that there is little margin for error, which is not really a new phenomenon for a team over the last decade that’s become known for punching above their weight. 

Let’s talk about Golden Boot leader, Tai Baribo. Outside of the great scoring numbers, what does he bring to the team?

MR: Baribo will be the first person to deflect credit to his teammates and his humility and team-first mentality is one of his greatest attributes. When you see him get stuck in to make a tackle in the middle of the park in the 80th minute, it illustrates how much his work rate and willingness to do anything to win — whether the goals come or not — impacts the team. 

Obviously it’s pretty early in a long season, but the Union have been impressive so far. What would be seen as a successful season for this group?

MR: It’s pretty much playoffs or bust, and once they get to the post-season, as we know, all bets are off. A competitive U.S. Open Cup run would be nice, though the schedule in May is not very kind.

Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

MR: Kai Wagner is questionable again, so look for him to come off the bench at the very least. I think there will be one or two changes in the starting XI, be it Indiana Vassilev, Bruno Damiani, or Olwethu Makhanya starting, but it will mostly be a similar look (with Nathan Harriel healthy) from match day 1. 

Projected starting XI: Andre Blake; Frankie Westfield, Ian Glavinovich, Jakob Glesnes, Nathan Harriel; Jovan Lukic, Danley Jean-Jacques, Quinn Sullivan; Daniel Gazdag, Bruno Damiani, Tai Baribo.

The Union haven’t drawn a match yet this season and Orlando has shown they can score (first in the league with 15 goals), so I’m going with a 2-2 draw.


Thank you to Matt for the refresher on the Union. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/4/25

Orlando City gets ready for the Philadelphia Union, OCSC partners with Footy Access, USWNT prepares for Brazil, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Happy Friday! It may feel a bit like the calm before the storm today, as Orlando City, Orlando City B, and the United States Women’s National Team are all in action on Saturday. It all makes for a fun next few days and I’m looking forward to it and also watching some kart racing on Sunday. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Gets Ready For the Philadelphia Union

The Lions are back in action Saturday with an away game against the Philadelphia Union at 7:30 p.m. Orlando has won its past two games and leads the league with 15 goals this season. The Union remain near the top of the Eastern Conference, but have lost two of their past three games. Duncan McGuire detailed how healthy competition and a willingness to defend has the offense firing on all cylinders heading into this match.

This will also be a rematch of the season opener on Feb. 22 when the Union won 4-2 at Inter&Co Stadium. Philadelphia Union Head Coach Bradley Carnell spoke on how Orlando is a different team compared to that match due to changes on offense and center back Robin Jansson’s recovery from a knock.

Orlando City Partners With Footy Access

With the Generation Adidas Cup set to take place later this month, Orlando City has partnered with Footy Access, which is a media company focused on youth soccer. This collaboration means fans will be able to enjoy highlights and interviews from Orlando’s academy as it progresses through the tournament. I’m pretty excited about being able to see how well Orlando’s academy is doing.

MLS NEXT also announced that new rankings focused on development rather than results will be used for its U-13 and U-14 age groups. These rankings will use an analytical formula that measures game play and the caliber of offensive and defensive actions. There will also be encouragement for teams to have their own identities on how they want to play.

USWNT Prepares to Face Brazil in Friendlies

The United States Women’s National Team will take on Brazil on Saturday in the first of two friendlies this international break, with the second match set for Tuesday. These friendlies will be rematches of last year’s Olympic gold medal match, which the U.S. won 1-0. Marta has retired from international soccer, but Pride midfielder Angelina was called up for these friendlies, along with former Pride forward Adriana. Lorena, who has only conceded one goal in three games for the Kansas City Current this season, will likely get the start in goal for Brazil behind a talented back line anchored by Tarciane. The USWNT will need to find ways to limit attacking threats like Kerolin and Gabi Portilho as well. These should be matches, with familiar faces on both sides for Orlando fans.

U.S. Set to Host 2031 Women’s World Cup

It looks like the 2031 Women’s World Cup will be held in the U.S., as FIFA President Gianni Infantino stated that the only bid came from the U.S. and potentially other Concacaf nations. The U.S., which withdrew from hosting the 2027 World Cup, would be the first country to host the tournament three times and last hosted it in 2007. The United Kingdom was also revealed as the lone valid bid to host the 2035 World Cup and it would be the first time the tournament is hosted there.

Free Kicks

  • Shout out to Orlando City’s U-19 team for its title win and securing a spot in the MLS NEXT Cup playoffs.

That’s all for this fine Friday, I hope you all have a fantastic day and a relaxing weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Relies on Starters More Than Any Other MLS Team

An analysis of Óscar Pareja’s early lineup choices and substitution patterns and how that compares to the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Legendary swordsman Inigo Montoya, a man who is not lefthanded, once opened a conversation by asking the Dread Pirate Roberts if, by any chance, he had six fingers on his right hand. Nobody will need to prepare to die by the end of this column, but I will ask a similar question: I don’t mean to pry, but did you by any chance happen to realize that we are already more than one-sixth of the way through the MLS regular season? Six fingers, one-sixth of the season…close enough. Let’s go.

Time flies when you are having fun, and somehow Orlando City has already played 540 minutes of MLS soccer this season. I consider 500 minutes played to be a cutoff amount when looking at player and lineup performance, and with the conclusion of the most recent game in Los Angeles, the team has now surpassed that 500-minute threshold.

In looking at the opening 540 minutes, I was surprised to see how much continuity I found in the minutes played, considering how many injuries the Lions have had to work around during these first six games. In just the first six games, Orlando City has already had full games missed due to injury by César Araujo (1), David Brekalo (2), Robin Jansson (2), Duncan McGuire (3) and Nico Rodriguez (5). Brekalo and Pedro Gallese both missed a game for international duty as well. McGuire was not expected back during the first set of games, but all of those other players, with the possible exception of Rodriguez, were expected to contribute during the early part of the season.

These absences led to games where the substitutes list was full of players who will play big minutes for Orlando City B this year, but not players who Óscar Pareja was likely to turn to off the bench unless the game was out of hand or he was absolutely desperate. According to Opta’s tracking through the opening six games, Orlando City ranks last in MLS in the average minutes played by its substitutes, as the average amount of time per appearance for the players off the bench for the Lions is only 12 minutes. For context, 16 teams have an average amount of time per substitute appearance of 20 minutes or greater, and Inter Miami and Toronto are tied with a league-leading 27 minutes per substitute appearance.

The interesting thing about those two teams, Miami and Toronto, is that Miami leads the league in points per match with 2.6 and Toronto is second from the bottom with a scant 0.33 points per match. I think a lot of this data will even out over time, as right now there are several teams, including Miami, that are playing in multiple competitions and trying to keep players fresh for all of their matches.

When it comes to Orlando City, however, that is not the case, and thus far there has just been the standard one game per week on six consecutive Saturdays. The players are rested for each game. The issue has just been that Pareja has not had the depth and variety of players he thought he would have to bring off the bench to protect a lead or chase a deficit.

We often joke in articles or on The Mane Land PawedCast about how “Óscar gonna Óscar,” and once he finds a lineup he likes, he sticks with it. Even with all the injuries he has somehow managed to do this again this season, as you can see from the chart below. I started tracking lineup data last season, and even though the 2025 season is only six games old and there have been so many absences from key players this season, it was striking to see that the 11-man lineup that has played the most minutes together this season already outranks all but two lineups from the entire 2024 MLS season (including the five playoff games!):

Now, it is a little unfair to the one 2025 lineup on the above chart that it has such a negative goal differential per 90 minutes, because if it is only the 10 field players, with goalkeeper excluded, then that lineup has played 215 minutes together and has a +0.84 goal differential per 90 minutes. That group is +4 with Javier Otero in net in 74 minutes together, and removing the goalkeepers from the calculation turns that negative goal differential into a positive.

What that also tells us, however, is that when it comes to the 10 field players, Pareja has played the same unit in the field for 40% (215/540) of the team’s minutes already. Granted it is early in the season, but after six MLS games last season, the lineup that had played together the most had played a grand total of 74 minutes together (14% of all minutes). The top five most used lineups in last season’s opening six MLS games combined to play 302 minutes, or 56% of all minutes, and in 2025 it is 402 minutes, or 80%. My math, and everyone else’s math, says that is a much higher percentage and indicates that the team is focused on continuity early.

That continuity thus far this season has paid dividends, with the Lions earning 10 points from the first six games, twice as nice as last season’s five points after the first six games. Last year, the team was balancing midweek Concacaf Champions Cup games in addition to injuries and an international break during the opening weeks of the MLS season, so there were some good reasons for the lineup rotation and the slow start. This year’s squad will have to navigate two upcoming cup tournaments in the coming months, and so we likely will see a lot of new lineup configurations or more rotation once the U.S. Open Cup starts in May and then again when Leagues Cup starts in July.

Thus far though, Pareja has been able to stick with his starters deep into matches, and has only given playing time to 20 players, which is tied for third fewest across all of MLS. Fan bases often clamor for the coach to “play the kids,” but while Pareja has had young and inexperienced players on the senior roster for every game, he really has only given significant minutes to Alex Freeman from the group of players that could be referred to as “the kids.” Gustavo Caraballo has played nine minutes, which is incredible for a 16-year-old (15-year-old Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia is the only player younger than Caraballo to have played this season, and he has also played only nine minutes), and new signing Nico Rodriguez (20 years old) has played 11 minutes, but the next three youngest players to play are all at least 22 and were with the senior club last season (Otero and Ramiro Enrique) or came to the club after four seasons of college soccer (23-year-old, but nearly 24-year-old, Joran Gerbet).

The team’s record thus far shows that Pareja has been right to limit the minutes to the small group of players he trusts, and with one game per week for the next six weeks it will be interesting to see if the early trend of starters playing long minutes and only a few players getting all the minutes off the bench continues. The next match is on the road against Philadelphia, which so rudely came into Orlando and defeated the Lions 4-2 in the season opener, and my expectation is that while we likely will not see any players make their season debut in this game, I do think we will see a different starting lineup than the season opener and probably a different one than the game last weekend against the Galaxy.

No matter who the Lions go with, I am sure they will want to avenge the season-opening loss and bring three points back home to Orlando.

As we wish.

Vamos Orlando!

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