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Orlando City vs. Montreal Impact: Final Score 1-0 as Lions are Eliminated from the Postseason

Despite a wealth of possession and a lopsided shot advantage, the Lions can’t find a breakthrough, falling to the Impact for the first time in 2016.

Published

8 years ago

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Nick Leyva, The Mane Land

Orlando City was desperately in need of a win but it was the Montreal Impact that played with desperation. The Impact sat deep and defended for 90+ minutes, hoping for a moment of magic on the counter. They got exactly that with Dominic Oduro’s 56th minute, 1-v-1 opportunity. Oduro beat Joe Bendik and ended Orlando’s playoff hopes in a 1-0 Montreal win.

The Lions finished the season series 2-1-0 against the Impact, but the one loss seems to more than cancel out the two wins — two of only seven times Orlando has collected all three points this season.

In the end, it didn’t matter that the Lions held the ball for 66.8% of the game (74.2% of the second half). It didn’t matter that Orlando (7-11-14, 35 points) out-shot the Impact, 22-4. It didn’t matter that City won more duels, passed more accurately, or had 12 corners to Montreal’s one. All that matters is that it’s another loss for the lads in purple, and this one hurts more than all the others because it puts a finality to even the faintest glimmer of postseason hopes.

“In my opinion we did everything other than finish our chances,” said Head Coach Jason Kreis after the match. “And if we’d have finished one of our chances, I think the game would have been much different.”

Oduro’s one moment of magic was all that Montreal (11-10-11, 44 points) wanted. And Impact Head Coach Mauro Biello even acknowledged after the game that he’d have been satisfied with a single point in a 0-0 draw. But he did get that moment – on his team’s only shot on target of the game, no less – and he has to feel like he’s sneaking out of Orlando having committed the great train robbery.

The Lions peppered 19 second-half shot attempts toward Evan Bush’s goal and not one of them fell favorably. Five of the 22 total OCSC shot attempts were blocked and 12 were off-target, leaving only five on frame, with Bush stopping all of them, including two of the Save-of-the-Week variety.

Give credit to Montreal. The Impact came in with the bus already parked and their game plan worked to perfection, as the Lions missed the target, rushed shots, or hit Bush squarely, with only a couple of exceptions. Only two denied first-half appeals for penalty kicks could have made a difference, but neither was awarded. Even without those, you’d have to think the Lions generated sufficient chances to bulge the net at least once or twice. They didn’t.

Neither team did much through a sleepy first half. Montreal was content to give Orlando City possession, which the Lions were happy to take, holding the ball 62.2% of the first half to the Impact’s 37.8%. To Orlando’s credit, there weren’t a lot of turnovers leading to dangerous counters, but the Lions also failed to threaten goal much, finishing with three first-half shots and none on target.

The Lions also largely wasted five corner kicks, either failing to find a teammate or not even beating the first defender with the cross. However, Jose Aja got onto a Matias Perez Garcia corner cross in the 20th minute and directed his headed shot toward goal. The ball appeared to take a deflection and went over the end line. The Lions protested for a handball but the ref awarded a goal kick.

In the 23rd minute, a nice bit of build-up led to a near chance but Kaká over-hit the pass and Bush came quickly off his line to beat Cyle Larin to the ball.

In the 41st, Kaká got to the end line and tried to cross the ball in. It deflected off a defender and again the captain and the crowd howled for a penalty but to no avail. A minute later the Lions got their best opportunity of the half as Larin turned and blasted from the top of the box, but his shot was just wide. That summarized Larin’s afternoon.

Kreis brought Julio Baptista on for an ineffective Kevin Molino at the half and Orlando’s attacking mentality certainly changed. However, David Mateos sustained a right knee injury and forced a second substitution early in the second period, as Seb Hines came on.

Hines’ first touch served to send Kaká up the left flank, where the Brazilian crossed in for Larin, but the Canadian couldn’t quite get onto it. He may have been pushed, but there was no whistle from Armando Villarreal — a theme that played throughout the day.

In the 54th minute, Kevin Alston’s long throw found Baptista in the box, but he couldn’t control it and it was cleared as far as Luke Boden, who shot just over the bar from the top of the box. Within a minute, Larin turned around Laurent Ciman and sped toward goal. Ambroise Oyongo appeared to foul Larin just outside the box but Villarreal saw nothing in the challenge and what was more or less a breakaway went without even an attempt at goal. A minute later, Kaká tried a shot but it went straight at Bush, much like his attempt late at Toronto found Alex Bono.

A minute after that, Oduro ripped the hearts out of the 26,041 at Camping World Stadium, finishing a 1-v-1 opportunity against Bendik. Patrice Bernier found room on the right side and centered for Matteo Mancosu. The Italian’s one-time pass took an unlucky deflection off Hines and right into the path of the onrushing Oduro, who easily out-paced Boden and found the upper right corner of the net.

Kreis didn’t fault Hines on the goal or suggest that had he not been forced to sub out the inured Mateos the outcome would have been any different.

“I honestly don’t think that had much to do with (the goal),” Kreis said. “We let that break happen with the player on the ball where he was allowed a little too much time and space. And then Oduro makes a run that we should have held our line and we didn’t hold our line. When you do that and you end up with a player with that kind of pace behind you, you’re going to be in trouble.”

Orlando had an opportunity in the 60th with the ball pinging around in Montreal’s box after a corner kick, but every Lion shot or pass attempt was deflected by a Montreal boot and you just knew it wasn’t City’s day.

That became even more evident in the 62nd minute. Antonio Nocerino sent a lovely ball to the left corner for Boden, who one-timed a perfect cross into the six-yard box for Larin. The Canadian got it on frame but Bush made a point-blank save to somehow keep it out.

Kreis withdrew Servando Carrasco for Carlos Rivas in the 64th minute, going all-out in the attack. Just four minutes later, Rivas sent in one of his incredible crosses from the left flank that found Baptista’s head but he nodded off target. Baptista again missed the target in the 69th, firing just over the bar after an Alston cross into the box deflected right onto the Brazilian’s foot.

Rivas sent a free kick just inches over the bar in the 72nd minute, as it looked for all the world like a shot eventually had to find the net. He fired just over the bar again in the 80th, however, and you started to realize that Bush could leave the stadium and somehow the ball would stay out. But he didn’t leave the stadium, instead robbing Larin on a header off a corner kick in the 88th.

There were six minutes of stoppage time to try to at least pull a goal back, but the best chances were already behind the Lions and the Impact saw out the clean sheet for Bush.

“Obviously we’re all very, deeply disappointed,” Kreis said. “I think we all put in a tremendous amount to that game, really gave our hearts and souls to it in the buildup the past several days. I couldn’t be happier with the work everybody’s done and the effort everybody’s given, but soccer can be a cruel game and that’s what we saw today.”

The Lions are left to play two lame duck matches – two weeks from today at Philadelphia and again three weeks from today at home against D.C. United.

“We want to finish well,” Kreis said. “This group has worked extremely hard and it would be a real shame not to not give ourselves the respect and our fans the respect to do everything we can to get points and wins in these last two matches. I think we’re all too good of professionals to ever look at these games this way.”

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

18 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

20 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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24 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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