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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo: Final Score 4-0 as Tired Legs and Too Much Speed Dooms Lions

In a match that saw a number of changes from Orlando’s side, City never found a way into a game dominated by the Dynamo.

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Nick Leyva, The Mane Land

The speed of the Houston Dynamo and the tired legs of the Lions were a bad combination, as Orlando City was blown out, 4-0, at BBVA Compass Stadium. The club suffered consecutive losses for the first time all season, after dropping both matches on its two-game road trip. Alberth Elis, Mauro Manotas (twice), and Romell Quioto provided the goals for Houston.

Orlando City (6-3-0, 18 points) played away to Houston (5-3-1, 16 points) for its third game in just eight days and second game in as many time zones just three days apart, and despite squad rotation, the Lions looked tired and slow throughout the match.

Jason Kreis made several changes, dropping Kaká and Carlos Rivas from the starting lineup and dropping Jonathan Spector from the 18. Giles Barnes started up top with Cyle Larin, atop a midfield of Antonio Nocerino at the bottom of the diamond, Luis Gil and Will Johnson on the wings, and Matias Perez Garcia at the tip. The back line consisted of Donny Toia, Tommy Redding, Jose Aja — in his return to the field — and Scott Sutter.

One noticeable name out of the starting XI for Houston was Cubo Torres, the league’s leading goal scorer. Houston wouldn’t need him.

The Dynamo were able to take advantage early, as they earned a corner kick in the first three minutes and were inside the 18 with the ball three times in that same time frame but were unable to test the MLS Player of the Month for April, Joe Bendik. Unfortunately, that didn’t last.

Toia gave away a bad foul on his own end line on the outside, right of the box early. Houston hit the ensuing free kick well, but fortunately Aja cleared it away. The ball was immediately fed back into the middle of the field, and Houston’s Manotas hit a scary ball just wide of the post. With the pressure never ceasing, the ball was turned over by the Lions again and Houston broke away to earn a penalty kick on a Johnson foul. Manotas took the shot and hit the ball wide left as Bendik was diving the opposite way, giving the Lions a momentary reprieve.

Orlando needed a break and Manotas’ miss seemed the perfect opportunity for Orlando City to take a deep breath and try to work back into the game. But it wasn’t happening for the Lions as they could never really find possession of the ball — Houston was beating them to everything and continued to dominate the game. This proved costly in the 23rd minute, as Elis beat Toia wide and fired a shot on goal that beat Bendik inside the near post on a shot that perhaps the keeper should have stopped.

Orlando City has three losses on the season and all of them came after conceding the first goal. So Elis’ strike was a bad omen.

The best threatening moment of the first half for Orlando City finally came in the 29th minute on a nice build-up, but a turnover from Sutter in Houston’s 18-yard box resulted in a fast break for the opposition. Houston pushed and managed a shot but Orlando’s Redding prevailed and the counter was squashed as the ball sailed over the goal post.

Orlando City finally earned a corner in the 35th minute of the game but it resulted in nothing positive for the men in purple as the ball was easily hit away from being any real threat. It did however, finally seem that Orlando City was pushing further up the field, resulting in better touches and more pressure against the Houston defense. The Dynamo, after 35 minutes of pressing, finally seemed fatigued and Orlando was doing a better job of making things happen at this point.

The story of the first half is simple — Houston dominated all but seven, maybe eight minutes of the game as Orlando City struggled to find its footing. The Dynamo were more than likely wondering how they didn’t score more goals, especially with a missed penalty kick. The Lions had to be thankful they didn’t get scored on more as they looked fatigued and not too much excited about playing within the first 45 minutes.

Orlando City started off the second half a little bit better, even producing its first shot on target in the 47th minute. Johnson fired a shot with a lot of pace but Houston keeper Joe Willis was not bothered as he made a comfortable save. A mere two minutes later, Houston was on the attack as Alex broke down Toia and assisted a beautiful touch pass to Manotas, who hammered the ball into the net. Bendik was able to get a piece of the ball under his leg but the shot was just powerful enough to find its way into the net.

Just before subs Kaká and Rivas made their way into the game, Barnes found an open opportunity in the middle of the 18, but the shot was taken on his weaker foot and ended up sailing away from the goal.

Kaká and Rivas finally made their way onto the field in the 58th minute with hopes of changing the tide of the game. Those hopes would seemingly dissipate rather quickly as Quioto found what seemed to be an entire field of space. Quioto came up with a transition opportunity in the 64th minute but Bendik made an amazing save in a one-on-one situation that could have put Houston up 3-0.

But then the 65th minute came, and Quioto again found himself wide open on the left flank, breaking away with great speed. This time, however, Quioto laid the ball off to a wide open Manotas, who clanked the ball in off the right post, scoring his second goal of the game.  

Larin finally got his first real chance of the game in the 71st minute, an opportunity that came in front of the goal but Willis pushed the ball back into the middle of the 18, where no Orlando City player was able to capitalize.

Kreis subbed Cristian Higuita on for Johnson in the 71st minute. A minute later, Kaká wiggled his way through defenders and set up Gil, who scuffed his shot and Orlando’s opportunity to find a way into the game.

In the 75th minute, Quioto again found himself in acres of space on the left side of the field, where his pace again left defenders in his wake, as he put away his opportunity with a well-placed shot in the top right corner, chipping Bendik. This put Houston up 4-0 and put a cap to the scoring on the night.

The last 15 minutes of the game were played out with Orlando City looking to get a consolation goal, but the final touch was missing as the Lions were unable to capitalize on their opportunities. Houston earned many of the same opportunities where they could have run up the score but Bendik was able to prevent the game from getting further out of hand than it already was.

Orlando City never found its stride in the game and along with that looked fairly fatigued. The motor we are used to seeing was absent from the players and the end result was domination from the Houston Dynamo.


The Lions are back in action at home next Saturday against Sporting Kansas City at 7:30 p.m.

Orlando City

Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Nashville SC: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from a regrettable 3-2 loss to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City came into the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 match against Nashville SC riding a 12-match unbeaten streak, including a 3-0 thrashing of in-state rival Inter Miami on Sunday. The Lions’ next match against the Portland Timbers looms on Saturday. Despite the glut of matches, Orlando fielded most of the normal starters in an effort to advance. Unfortunately, the Lions fell 3-2 to the visitors to end any hopes of another Open Cup trophy. Here are my five takeaways from a disappointing midweek match.

Pasalic Power

Marco Pasalic decided he wanted to do it all himself on the first goal. As he has so often, he went up the right side before cutting in to the left and burying an absolute rocket of a shot into the back of the net to give Orlando City the early lead. It’s the type of goal we’ve come to expect from Pasalic since his arrival and it was his first U.S. Open Cup goal on his debut in the competition. Unfortunately, he’ll have to wait until at least next year for his next USOC match.

Tired Starters

One could see that the Orlando City defenders were running on tired legs. It seemed obvious in the two goals given up in the first half. The first goal bounced around in the box and then off of Rodrigo Schlegel for an own goal. On the second goal, no one stepped to Ahmed Qasem at the top of the box, allowing him to put an easy shot into the bottom right corner of the goal.

Alex Freeman was near Qasem, but had to anticipate a pass to the wing. Cesar Araujo trailed Qasem passively, and he was not in position to do anything when the Nashville attacker opted to take the space the defense gave him. On the left side, Nashville’s attackers torched David Brekalo from the start. The defense simply looked tired, including Araujo in central midfield.

Enrique’s Equalizer

Orlando City came back out after halftime looking much better on the ball. The tactical adjustments worked as the team pushed for an equalizer. Working along the right side of the attack, Freeman sent the ball to Pasalic, who smartly provided a one-touch pass to Ramiro Enrique for the finish. It was a well-worked attack and a beautiful finish.

Handball Debacle

In the 72nd minute, there was a handball in the box on Nashville’s Wyatt Meyer. Unfortunately, referee Joshua Encarnacion did not make the call. To make matters worse, he then gave Freeman a yellow card for dissent a little further down the field seconds later. There is no video review in the U.S. Open Cup, so there was no second look available to make the correct call. It was a double whammy of a situation. To then pour salt on the wound, Meyer scored Nashville’s third goal to give the visitors the lead again.

Taking it Too Seriously?

Oscar Pareja takes the U.S. Open Cup seriously. So seriously that he started most of the regulars despite the emotional and physical toll taken in the match against Inter Miami and the volume of minutes they’ve played throughout May every three days. Initially, it looked to be the right decision, but the two first-half goals by Nashville put that into question. The number of minutes played by some of the starters — who will need to play against the Portland Timbers this weekend — may turn one loss into two. That being said, I wanted Pareja to prioritize the Open Cup over the Leagues Cup, and we’ll find out in July and August if that’s the case.


Those are my takeaways from Orlando City’s 3-2 loss to Nashville in the U.S. Open Cup. It was a disappointing result on a night where Nashville didn’t bring their A-squad, but did bring its A-game.

Let us know your thoughts about the Nashville SC match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/22/25

Orlando City ousted from U.S. Open Cup, OCB’s Justin Ellis named Player of the Matchweek, Tottenham wins Europa League, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, that could have gone better. It’s understandable to feel a bit deflated after Wednesday night’s game, especially after so many positive Orlando City results as of late. The good news though is that we’re another day closer to a holiday weekend that should include some good times or at least rest and relaxation. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Eliminated from U.S. Open Cup

The Lions lost 3-2 at home to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16, ending the team’s run in the tournament. Orlando struck first in a rollercoaster of a match, and Ramiro Enrique pulled the Lions level after they fell behind, but rookie Wyatt Meyer scored the winner for the visitors. The loss snapped Orlando’s 12-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and Orlando looked like a team that played five other matches already this month. Orlando will need to shake off this loss as it prepares to host the Portland Timbers on Saturday.

Justin Ellis Named MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek

Orlando City B midfielder Justin Ellis was selected as MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek for his role in the team’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami II. Ellis, who turned 18 years old last week, assisted on both of OCB’s first two goals before scoring from the penalty spot himself. It’s been quite the year so far for Ellis, as he also scored six goals in the Generation Adidas Cup to help Orlando win the U-18 title in April. The Young Lions are back in action Friday with a road match against rival Atlanta United 2.

U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 Results

Comebacks were a theme throughout the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16. Minnesota United took the lead, gave it up, and ultimately advanced thanks to defender Anthony Markanich scoring two late goals to beat St. Louis City 3-2 at Allianz Arena. Markanich was traded from St. Louis to Minnesota last year, adding a little salt in the wound for the visitors. D.C. United and Charlotte FC battled in a back-and-forth match that ended up with D.C. winning the penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw. The match between the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas also went the distance, with the Red Bulls winning the shootout. The Philadelphia Union won 4-1 against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds to eliminate the last team from outside MLS. The draw for the quarterfinals will take place this morning.

Tottenham Hotspur Wins Europa League Final

Tottenham prevailed in this year’s Europa league final, winning 1-0 against Manchester United in Spain. Brennan Johnson’s goal was enough for Tottenham to end its 17-year wait for a major trophy. It was a bit of an underwhelming finish to what was a fairly exciting knockout stage, and this was United’s only loss in this year’s tournament. Tottenham has now qualified for next season’s Champions League despite currently being 17th in the English Premier League standings.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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