Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Minnesota United: Player Grades and Man of the Match
Orlando City is in free fall after the most promising start in its MLS existence. There are multiple reasons for it, which is fodder for other columns than this one, but they include other teams adjusting to what Orlando was doing early in the season, a lack of creativity in the final third, and a falling off in form of Cyle Larin and Carlos Rivas.
Those and others are topics for other posts.
This one is to rate Orlando City’s players individually for their part in Saturday night’s loss to expansion Minnesota. It feels bad to lose to a lower table team and to your ex-coach, especially when the opponent was missing its best player. But it’s really just another loss in a bad run of results and the opportunities were there for the Lions had they only taken them.
Usually, these grades are turned in shortly after the conclusion of the game but technical issues with a staff writer’s computer focused my attentions elsewhere. As a result, the delay offered me an opportunity to ignore the emotional reaction of just giving everyone a grade between two and four after the loss and gain perspective that can only come with time to reflect. This might be a good way to do it in the future, actually.
All that said, let’s get to the player ratings.
Starters
GK, Joe Bendik, 6.5 — It would be harsh to blame him overly much on the Christian Ramirez goal. He came off his line to try to make the play and nearly made it. He could possibly have recognized the danger a split second sooner but, again, it would be harsh to blame him too much for a one-on-one play. His 20th-minute save on Ramirez kept the score level early. His distribution was OK. He had to face only five shots and only two were on target.
D, PC, 6.5 — Although not the only player to struggle with his long balls, PC hit only three of 10 on the night. His passing was a decent-ish 78.7% (second among defenders) but he created no chances and attempted only one cross, which didn’t connect. He at least tried to get the attack going but made some curious mistakes, such as dribbling into a triple-team late in the game and then committing a foul after being dispossessed. Earned a free kick in a good spot late but the Lions wasted it by fouling with the ball in the air. Defensively, he was second on the team in tackles (6) and finished with three interceptions and three clearances but also tied for the team high in fouls (4) and kept Ramirez onside on the goal.
D, Jonathan Spector, 7 — Yet another workmanlike effort by Specs, who led the team in clearances (6) and tied for the most interceptions (4), with one tackle. Spector passed at a 76.7% rate, won two aerials, and drew two fouls. It wasn’t a standout game for the veteran center back but it was a solid performance and he generally did his job on the night. People will remember the final score, but likely won’t recall that the defense limited the home team to just five shot attempts and Spector was a big part of that.
D, Jose Aja, 6.5 — The Uruguayan lost track of Ramirez a couple of times – who doesn’t? – but otherwise his night was mostly solid. He gambled and lost in the 20th minute, trying to beat an attacker to the ball, forcing Bendik to make a big save. He bailed out Will Johnson in the 28th by blocking a dangerous cross in transition after the midfielder had turned it over and he did a nice job of holding off Ramirez on a cross in the 78th. His passing rate of 76% was about the same as Spector’s and he won one aerial and made three tackles with four interceptions and five clearances. He managed one key pass but was accurate with only three of 12 long balls.
D, Scott Sutter, 7 (MotM) — Sutter led the entire team in passing accuracy (89.7%) and was second in crosses (5), helping to create on a night when few players were able to do so. His shot in the seventh skipped just wide of the far post. His long throw-in created a chance for Cyle Larin in the ninth minute. He finished with three interceptions and four clearances. Honestly, it was a toss-up for me between Sutter and Spector as Man of the Match but on a night with so little offense, one of the few players who tried to create some gets my nod.
MF, Luis Gil, 6 — The midfielder created a team-high four chances (tied with MPG) and got his one shot on target in the 50th minute, although it was right at Bobby Shuttleworth. He seemed to struggle at times with connecting in the final third, which makes him pretty much like everyone else on the night, but he finished with a 78.1% passing rate. Gil tied Aja and Spector for the team high in interceptions (4) and had one clearance.
MF, Antonio Nocerino, 6 — With two tackles, an interception, and two clearances, Noce did his usual job of trying to shield the back four, albeit in a flat 4-4-2, which may not best suit his strengths. His best moment may have been in the 70th minute, when he dispossessed Johan Venegas inside the box to break up a Minnesota attack. He unleashed a screamer of a shot in the 54th minute that Sam Cronin blocked. His passing percentage of 76.7% was the lowest among the team’s midfielders but they were all within a couple of percentage points of one another. He was the only midfielder aside from Johnson to send a cross into the box.
MF, Will Johnson, 6 — The acting captain didn’t leave too much of a mark on the game but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. His effort and work rate continues to be among the best on the team. He nearly singlehandedly brought the Lions back in the 58th by testing Shuttleworth just two minutes after Minnesota opened the scoring. His worst moment came in the 28th minute with an uncharacteristic sloppy turnover. Had time and space but fired high in the 87th minute. He had two interceptions and three clearances and led the midfield with a 79.2% passing rate.
MF, Matias Perez Garcia, 6 — MPG’s night was a mixture of successes and failures, as usual. He tied for a team high with four chances created, had a game high seven tackles, and was second on the club in shots (4). Yet only one of his four shots was on target and the three misses weren’t close. He earned three free kicks, taking one in the 23rd minute and forcing a diving stop from Shuttleworth. He had better accuracy on his long balls (4/6) than most of his teammates.
F, Carlos Rivas, 4 — I’m noticing a difference between the home and away versions of the Colombian. Rivas was static most of the game, preferring to stand in place to send in crosses rather than take on defenders wide to get to the end line or try to turn the corner. He shoots (wildly) from distance but won’t shoot from close range. He led the team with six crosses but had a few others blocked simply by being unwilling to make an effort to make space for himself. Rivas passed at only a 72.7% rate and got only two of his six shots on target – both of which had little power and were right at the keeper. He was dispossessed a team-high four times. Just not a great night for the Colombian.
F, Cyle Larin, 4 — If anyone was off his game as much as Rivas, it was Larin. He should have done better when Sutter’s throw-in fell at his feet in the box in the ninth minute. He ruined numerous attacks by trying to pass through defenders, and misjudged a through ball that could have seen him in on goal. The Canadian also wasted a late free kick in a good spot with an obvious push that drew the referee’s attention. His passing accuracy (66.7%) tied Bendik for the team low, and he didn’t have goal kicks to drag down his percentage. He did manage to get both of his shot attempts on target and helped out defensively with an interception and two clearances.
Substitutes
MF, Giles Barnes (72’), 4.5 — The Jamaican came on for Gil and was mostly invisible for the game’s final 20+ minutes. The box score shows he had three shots but none were on target and I’m hard pressed to even remember any of them. He completed four of his eight pass attempts and neither of his two crosses.
MF, Cristian Higuita (74’), 5.5 — Despite coming on two minutes later than Barnes, he had six more touches (21 compared to 15) but aside from drawing a foul and winning an aerial, he didn’t have too much impact on the game. His passing rate was good (84.6%) in a limited number of passes (13).
That is what the individual performances looked like to me. What did you think? Be sure to vote below for your OCSC Man of the Match.
Polling Closed
| Player | Votes |
| Jonathan Spector | 27 |
| Scott Sutter | 20 |
| PC | 6 |
| Will Johnson | 0 |
| Matias Perez Garcia | 4 |
| Other | 8 |
Opinion
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.
For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?
For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.
It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.
With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.
Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.
He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.
Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.
In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Orlando Pride Center Back Emily Sams Named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year
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