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Intelligence Report: Orlando City at New England Revolution

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No fancy intro from me this week. I just have one thing to say: Orlando City plays at New England Revolution tomorrow night and I really want the Lions to win this one. Told you it wasn’t fancy.

Our friend Jake Catanese from The Bent Musket is back again to give us the skinny on New England. I also answered his questions, which you can catch over at their place on game day.

You can be as vague or specific about this question as you like, but what’s the deal with the 2017 New England Revolution?

Jake Catanese: Pretty much the same thing that has been wrong with the Revs for the past few years. They can’t score and they’re still fixing holes on the back line.

Now, as always, the Revolution don’t have any issues creating chances. In fact, they’re really good at that. But they can’t score consistently. They have a lot of players who can score with several players (Kei Kamara, Lee Nguyen, Juan Agudelo — eight goals each) closing in on double-digit goals for the season. Teal Bunbury was on fire there for a while and now has five goals on the year, most of them coming in the last month or so.

Despite these individual successes, a lot of these goals came in big blowouts and the offense as a whole has been inconsistent. Diego Fagundez might be having his most complete season as a pro despite the meager four goals and seven assists on the year. Kelyn Rowe has seven assists and a USMNT debut but zero goals in MLS this year and is pretty much done for the year with injury. It’s not that the offense is bad or without talent, it just lacks consistency.

Defensively, New England has finally gotten around to replacing center back AJ Soares, who left in 2014. Slovenian international Antonio Delamea has been solid all year but the back line around him has been mostly unsettled. Andrew Farrell is still the established right back and is solid defensively while making a few improvements on the offensive end with his crossing, but largely has plateaued in his development. Center back Benjamin Angoua is on loan from France and has had a lot of curious individual errors as well as failing to control his emotions on more than one occasion. Summer addition Claude Dielna has looked the part in his first two games but now the Revs seem to be short a left back. 

Veteran Chris Tierney has been dropped as a starter and now the Revs are rotating in just about everyone to fill the spot. Farrell has moved over to the left side, Angoua has played out wide, London Woodberry has seen some action, but it’s still an unsettled unit that far too often is giving Cody Cropper problems to solve in goal. And while Cropper is pretty good, he can’t bail out the Revs every time.

So what’s the deal with the Revs? Pretty much the same thing that’s been going on the past few years, and if 2017 is more or less over, than the team should be taking steps to prepare for 2018

It seems like there’s a lot of quality in the New England squad when you look at the international and international-adjacent players on the team. What is the biggest reason the Revs have fallen off so much from their MLS Cup final season?

JC: I was browsing the Analytics Evolved website earlier in the week, expected goals are a fascinating thing and I highly recommend reading and browsing articles about “xG.”

Remember how I said the Revs don’t have a problem creating chances, just finishing them? Well, expected goals more or less proves what my eyes are seeing. The Revs should be scoring more goals based on the chances they’re creating and for some reason they aren’t. Andre Blake and Bill Hamid save everything against New England, but the Revs don’t play Philly and DCU every week, so there isn’t really anything specific to point to. The Revs just simply don’t score goals and lose a lot of close games to have a season goal differential of just -2 for a nearly last place team.

The longer answer, the Revs are just far too complacent with their roster. There hasn’t been a lot of turnover from the core team that made the 2014 MLS Cup final. Now, in theory, that’s not a bad thing because that’s a pretty damn good core of players. Yes, there are new center backs, yes Juan Agudelo returned from Europe and wasn’t on that 2014 team and yes the team acquired Kei Kamara and dealt Jermaine Jones. But a lot of the roster holes that existed in previous seasons are still being addressed years down the road. Center back has been a problem and while there are options there now it’s too late to save this season and left back is an issue that was not addressed in the summer window. Xavier Kouassi and Gershon Koffie are a solid platoon at holding midfield, but Kouassi is a DP who’s been oft injured with New England and the Revs had to get Koffie back on loan from Sweden after letting him walk in the off-season.

Related to these roster issues is the lack of development. Homegrown midfielder Zach Herivaux has zero MLS minutes this year and only a handful of appearances on loan in USL. First-round draft pick Brian Wright has a couple of substitute appearances and has been on loan in the USL. Backup left back Donnie Smith also has zero MLS appearances and a handful of USL loan games in Charlotte, but these minutes and appearances in the USOC are too scattered for the Revs to build the back end of their roster.

The Revolution should be a playoff team this season, and probably last season too. The talent is there. But something is wrong and not enough on or off the field gets addressed quickly enough to solve the problems and get the team back on a winning track.

How are teams attacking the Revolution successfully in 2017? (Seriously, we are offensively challenged so we need to know this. Please give us pointers.)

JC: There’s no real secret here, the Revs aren’t really susceptible to any specific kind of attacking play but constant pressure and/or patient buildup seems to work fine. The Revs are a pretty solid team overall. Their defensive issues seem to be more individual errors or team mentality than any specific tactic.

Fail to clear a ball from the box? Someone on your team is going to be in the perfect spot to take a shot and it’s going to score past Cody Cropper in goal. Revs sitting back to protect a lead? That’s exactly where you want the Revs’ defense, because they should be trying to attack and counter on you but they never do. This of course assumes the Revs even have a lead, which is something that doesn’t happen all that often and especially on the road.

The Revs have been a good home team, but they look lost offensively without Kelyn Rowe and Lee Nguyen in the middle. Will a home crowd and a week to get healthy be enough for the Revs? Maybe for this game, but it’s hard to see this team making a run to the playoffs.

Any injuries/suspensions/international duty we should know about? Projected starting XI? Score prediction?

JC: International duty: Antonio Delamea (Slovenia), Je-Vaughn Watson (Jamaica).

Injuries — Out: Kelyn Rowe; Questionable: Diego Fagundez, Lee Nguyen, Krisztián Németh.

Projected lineup 4-2-3-1: Cody Cropper; Donnie Smith, Claude Dielna, Benjamin Angoua, Andrew Farrell; Gershon Koffie, Scott Caldwell; Diego Fagundez, Juan Agudelo, Teal Bunbury; Kei Kamara.

With the injuries the Revs have been dealing with, there’s no right answer here. Donnie Smith probably won’t start at left back but I remain hopeful. If Nguyen starts you might see more of a 4-4-2 diamond look with two strikers up top. Nemeth could be available off the bench, we’ll see.

As always, there is only one score to predict in an ORL-NE game, a 2-2 draw.


Big thanks to Jake from The Bent Musket for stopping by and helping us learn more about this weekend’s opponent.

Opinion

Examining Orlando City’s 3-5-2

Let’s talk about Orlando City’s three-center-back formations, and try to determine if they should be the new norm.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

In the last two Orlando City matches against the Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami, Oscar Pareja has deployed his team in 3-5-2, and 3-4-1-2 formations, respectively. While Papi typically prefers to set his team up in a 4-2-3-1, injuries to fullbacks Rafael Santos, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and Mikey Halliday have necessitated some creative problem solving. The two uses of the 3-5-2 and its slightly tweaked variant have been met with success, as the Lions have taken four points from their last two games and, as a result, there’s been some calls online for the team to persist with the formation. With that being the case, let’s do some digging into how the formation has served OCSC, and try to determine if it’s a viable option going forward.

A big thing to note with Orlando’s use of a three-man back line is the presence of Wilder Cartagena as the middle center back. It isn’t his natural position, but Rodrigo Schlegel’s suspension for the Union game meant that Pareja needed to conjure another center back from somewhere, and he elected to shift Cartagena into the back line rather than use Kyle Smith or one of Abdi Salim or Thomas Williams.

Against Philly, a normal 3-5-2 was used, with Pedro Gallese in goal, David Brekalo, Cartagena, and Robin Jansson in the back line, Ivan Angulo and Facundo Torres as wingbacks, Nico Lodeiro, Cesar Araujo, and Martin Ojeda in the midfield, and Luis Muriel and Duncan McGuire up top. The only tweaks against Miami were Schlegel replacing the injured Jansson and Ojeda pushing up to sit behind the two strikers in a 3-4-1-2 formation.

In the Union game, Orlando did a great job at pushing numbers forward quickly when it won the ball, and all three of its goals came in situations where the attack was pressed quickly when the Lions won possession. The Lions took 13 shots, with eight of them from inside the box, and totaled 1.25 expected goals (xG). The team’s best chances of the night came with McGuire’s headed opener and Muriel’s second goal, as both came from inside the box and both were converted. Against Miami, the Lions took 14 shots, with seven from inside the box, and totaled .69 xG. OCSC’s best chance came from Martin Ojeda’s 32nd-minute shot from inside the box, which was well saved by Drake Callender.

In essence, Orlando created more chances against the Union, and was more clinical about finishing those chances. However, the difference in attacking output wasn’t drastic, and we might be able to put it down to Miami being a better team than Philly and the Lions playing the Herons on short rest.

Against Philly, OCSC had a rough outing defensively. While one of the Union goals came from a penalty kick, the home team took a whopping 29 shots during the game with all but eight from outside the box, for a total of 3.85 xG. Against Miami, the Herons took seven shots with six inside the box for a total of .60 xG. Aside from Gallese stonewalling Luis Suarez just minutes into the game in a 1-v-1 chance, the defense largely did a good job of limiting chances.

Even accounting for two penalty kick attempts inflating Philadelphia’s expected goals, the Lions did a far better job at limiting dangerous chances against Miami. That could be due to the team being more comfortable with the defensive setup after using it for a game or a more cautious approach by Oscar Pareja due to Miami’s considerable firepower, even without the injured Lionel Messi.

The numbers and the eye test say that there’s enough reason to consider continuing to use the formation going forward. The Lions have shown that they can create chances and score goals, and they’ve shown that they can have a solid defensive outing, although it would be nice to demonstrate both characteristics in the same game. That, my friends, is where things start to get tricky, because persisting with the 3-5-2 or a variation of it isn’t as simple as obeying what the numbers say.

Let’s talk about Orlando’s personnel. Thorhallsson and Santos both seem to be working their way back from injury, and once healthy they could theoretically slot in at the two wingback positions, which should help Orlando avoid the defensive mess we saw against the Union. That means we need to figure out what to do with Torres and Angulo. Despite his slow start to the season, Torres is a guy you have to have on the field, and in order to do that, I propose slotting him into Ojeda’s spot in the 3-4-1-2. The problem there is that he hasn’t looked super comfortable when operating as a central playmaker, but this could be resolved by instructing Muriel to drop off McGuire and play a little deeper, and giving Facu free reign to roam into the wide areas where he’s more comfortable.

Assuming Jansson will be missing for a few more games, I think you keep Cartagena at center back, considering how well he’s played there. Ojeda and Angulo come off the bench as impact subs, and you can rotate Ojeda into Lodeiro’s spot in the midfield as necessary to protect the Uruguayan’s legs. Once Jansson is back, he can slot in as the third center back, and Cartagena can move into the midfield, with Nico likely being the man sacrificed in games where Pareja wants more defensive stability, or Cartagena/Araujo dropping to the bench if Papi wants to go in guns blazing. I don’t particularly love that option though, as you generally want your best players on the field, and I have a hard time justifying breaking up the Araujo-Cartagena partnership that’s seen so much success.

The immediate problem with any three-center-back formation is Araujo’s yellow card suspension, which will mean he’s unavailable for Saturday’s game against San Jose. Theoretically, Cartagena could move up the field to take his place and Smith could slot in for the Peruvian, or Felipe could start in Araujo’s place, but if Santos and Thorhallsson are fit enough to start, I think we’ll see the return of a four-man back line. Otherwise, the same lineup would be starting its third game in eight days, and on a West Coast trip to boot. That seems like a recipe for disaster, so while I think there’s a way to trot out a 3-5-2/3-4-1-2, I don’t think we’ll see it on Saturday.


In short, the two formations have shown enough promise for them to merit some more looks, while bearing in mind that we’ve only seen a small sample size. The biggest challenge with continued use comes when Orlando has a clean bill of health and you try to figure out how to get as many of your best players on the field as you can. At that point it becomes a question of whether one of the new formations maximizes this team’s strengths, or if the best course of action is to revert to a 4-2-3-1 and keep the 3-5-2 in the back pocket for when its needed.

Either way, the strategy is going to be something interesting to keep an eye on going forward.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/17/24

MLSPA releases player salaries, Duncan McGuire discusses move to Blackburn, Orlando Pride prepare for the Seattle Reign, and more.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Happy Friday! The weekend is nearly here, with plenty of soccer both here in the domestic leagues and abroad. I have a pretty packed weekend but am looking forward to watching Orlando City and the Orlando Pride in action. It should be a nice next few days, so let’s get it started with today’s links!

MLSPA Releases Player Salaries

The Major League Soccer Players Association unveiled the base salary and guaranteed compensation information for every player under contract with the league as of April 25 — except Wilder Cartagena, apparently. Luis Muriel is the highest-paid Orlando City player, and his $4.3 million in guaranteed compensation is the 12th most in the league, while his base salary is just over $2.83. As for other Orlando newcomers, Nico Lodeiro’s compensation is $800,000 and David Brekalo’s is $683,000.

Lionel Messi predictably tops the list of all players with $20.4 million guaranteed for playing with Inter Miami. To put that number into perspective, it’s more than the compensation of every team in the league except his own team (Miami), Toronto FC, Nashville SC, and the Chicago Fire. Orlando City is 22nd in the league in compensation, clocking in at $15.07 million.

Duncan McGuire Weighs In on Moving to Blackburn

Orlando City forward Duncan McGuire had a hurricane of an off-season due to a transfer saga that nearly saw him join Blackburn Rovers in England. An administration error by Blackburn prevented the move from going through, and McGuire ultimately returned to Orlando. In the time since, there have been reports that Orlando offered him a new contract and that Blackburn still wants him to join in the summer. McGuire spoke about whether he is still interested in a move to Blackburn after the difficult experience.

“It’s tough to say,” McGuire told GOAL.”That was a pretty bad mistake, a pretty bad mistake by them. I’d be open to maybe having a conversation but it would have to be a lot to get me to go back there. On the plane ride back, I just felt like my tail was between my legs. I asked my agent how often this happens and he was like ‘This doesn’t happen’.

“I didn’t burn bridges with my teammates or have it be like ‘Oh you wanted to leave and now you’re back’. When I got back, it was like I never left.”

Orlando Pride Prepare for the Seattle Reign

The Orlando Pride will take their six-game win streak on the road for a match against the Seattle Reign Sunday night. The Reign are coming off of a 4-0 loss to the Portland Thorns in their sixth defeat of the season, but Pride Head Coach Seb Hines discussed how the Reign played better in that match than the score suggests. The Pride have also never won in Washington, and the turf and atmosphere of Lumen Field could give Orlando some trouble after a long trip. Injuries, particularly to the midfield, have made things difficult for the Pride, but midfielder Morgan Gautrat detailed how the team’s chemistry has helped them get results despite the adversity.

Nashville SC Fires Gary Smith

Nashville SC has parted ways with Gary Smith, who had been the club’s only head coach while in MLS. Smith joined Nashville back in 2018, coaching the team for two seasons in the USL Championship before. With a defensive style, Smith led the team to MLS playoff appearances in all four years but couldn’t put together a deep run. Nashville is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference and Rumba Munthali will serve as the club’s interim head coach while the club searches for a new permanent coach.

Charlotte FC Transfers Enzo Copetti Out

Another Designated Player is leaving Charlotte FC, as the club transferred Enzo Copetti to Rosario Central in Argentina’s top flight. The forward recorded eight goals and three assists across all competitions while with Charlotte, and has played less than 500 minutes this season. Copetti is the latest Designated Player transferred out since Dean Smith took over as Charlotte’s head coach, with Kamil Jozwiak sent to Granada and Karol Swiderski loaned to Hellas Verona. Despite the turnover, Charlotte sits fifth in the Eastern Conference and could make some noise this season if it brings in the right players in the summer transfer window.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Miguel Gallardo spoke with the folks over at The Blazing Musket about the New England Revolution and the art of goalkeeping.
  • Our condolences go out to the friends and family of Derek Sanderson, who played for many teams across many leagues back in the 1980s, including the American Soccer League’s Orlando Lions.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Inter Miami CF: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in the scoreless draw against Inter Miami?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, it wasn’t the most exciting of games, but that’s what you get when you put a rivalry game midweek. Still, Orlando City got a point against a good team, still hasn’t lost to Inter Miami at home, and looked the most defensively solid that it has in quite some time. Here’s how I graded the individual Orlando performances from an even, defensive affair.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 7.5 — This was another strong performance from Gallese, after he had a good showing in Saturday’s win over the Philadelphia Union. He was called into action mere minutes into the game, and made a great save to deny Luis Suarez in a 1-v-1 situation. He made three saves on the night, but didn’t face any real danger aside from Suarez’s early chance. His distribution wasn’t at its best, as he only passed with 65% accuracy on the night, but he’s far from the only Lion who had some trouble delivering their passes. Overall, he commanded his area well, came off his line at the right times, and made the big save when it was needed. He’s starting to look more like his old self.

D, David Brekalo, 6.5 — Like Gallese, Brekalo built off a good performance in his last game out. He made an excellent block in the seventh minute to deny Robert Taylor, although the play may have been called offside anyway (it wasn’t on the field). He was busy defensively and ended his night with three clearances, two interceptions, one block, and one aerial duel won. He popped up on the offensive end with one shot, which he put on target, and a passing accuracy of 88%.

D, Wilder Cartagena, 7 — If I didn’t know the Peruvian wasn’t a natural center back, then I never would have guessed it. He’s looked a natural at the position through two games. The play he made in the 54th minute to head a ball out for a corner while tracking back towards his own goal with Taylor draped all over him was excellent, and he made several timely interventions while generally keeping things very calm in the center of the back three. He also recorded three clearances, two interceptions, and one block on defense, as well as committing a foul. He also drew a foul of his own and delivered his passes with 80% accuracy. He gets a half-point bump over his compatriots for being a midfielder by trade and looking as good as he did back there.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6.5 — Schlegel made his return from a red card suspension, and had a much calmer game than his last time out. His four clearances led all players, and he also won an aerial duel, and recorded a tackle and two interceptions while committing a foul. Like Cartagena, he drew a foul of his own, and also took one shot (blocked), while passing with 87% accuracy. I was a bit worried about his tendency to burn a little too hot during high pressure games, but he turned in a steady and reliable performance.  

WB/F, Facundo Torres, 6.5 — Like Angulo, Torres’ defensive responsibilities at the wingback position meant he wasn’t as involved on offense as we’ve become accustomed to seeing, although he did move up to forward late in the match shortly before subbing off in stoppage time. He took one shot (off target), drew one foul, made two key passes, completed one cross, and passed the ball with 83% accuracy. On defense, he contributed a tackle, a clearance, and one aerial duel won. He’s always started slowly and the constraints of his position in the last two games are what they are, but this team needs to find a way to get him firing on all cylinders. The Lions are better when Torres is balling, and so far this year he hasn’t been.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — As the only true defensive midfielder, Araujo had his work cut out for him in this one, but he performed that work pretty well. He finished with two tackles, an interception, one completed dribble, one aerial duel won, three fouls draw, and a passing accuracy of 95% on 62 attempted passes. The big blemish on his night was from a boneheaded and unnecessary foul on Julian Gressel, which means he’ll be suspended for Saturday’s trip to San Jose. If nothing else, he’ll get a little rest after doing a bunch of running these last two games.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 5.5 — We got to see Ojeda as the no. 10 sitting behind the pair of Luis Muriel and Duncan McGuire, and it just didn’t quite work. The statistics say that he didn’t have a bad night, as he finished with two interceptions, three shots (one off target, one on target, one blocked), two key passes, two crosses, and 87% passing accuracy. The eye test says that things weren’t fully clicking though, and in a game where he was largely freed of defensive responsibilities, he didn’t have the necessary impact at the other end of the field, although Drake Callender did very well to save his low shot in the 32nd minute. Aside from that, his best opportunity to make something happen came when he had an excellent chance to put the ball on a plate for a wide-open Torres at the back post in the 69th minute, but failed to see him, and instead played a harmless low cross that was cleared out for a corner.

MF, Nico Lodeiro, 6.5 — Asked to help facilitate play from deep, Lodeiro looked lively in the first half, although his influence waned as the game went on, which was true of most of the offensively inclined Lions. He totaled one clearance, one shot (which was blocked), one completed dribble, one foul drawn, two key passes, two crosses, and 94% passing accuracy. Lodeiro wasn’t as involved on the offensive end as he probably would have liked to be, but he did some important tracking back on multiple occasions when Miami sent runners from deep during its attacks.

WB, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — Angulo seemed to be the man Miami singled out to try to pick on, as the visitors repeatedly tested him with chipped or diagonal balls in behind him. They were tests that he failed on several occasions, as he fell asleep on Franco Negri’s back-post run in the seventh minute, and again on Jordi Alba’s run in the 74th. Both occasions required timely interventions from his teammates to spare his blushes, but the visitors went after him for a reason. His night finished with one tackle, one clearance, two interceptions, one completed dribble, and one foul drawn, while passing with 90% accuracy.

F, Luis Muriel, 7.5 (MotM) — Listen, I get being frustrated with players when they don’t hit the ground running and light the league on fire. But for the people who have been vocal online about thinking Muriel looks washed, I just don’t know what to tell you. He contributed a tackle and a clearance, took three shots (one on target, two blocked), drew a foul, won an aerial duel, and completed two crosses and three key passes while passing with 74% accuracy. Oh, and his six completed dribbles were the most of any player on the field by a country mile. Time and again he beat one or multiple Miami players and got the ball into a dangerous area, and his pass in the 32nd minute to set up Ojeda’s shot was genius, as was his run in the 69th minute to set up the same man. He drew a yellow card on Robert Taylor after stealing the ball from the Miami forward in the 65th minute. His only blemishes on the night come from the counter that he and Torres couldn’t manage to fashion a shot from (a big blemish), and the “foul” he committed, and the subsequent booking he was given (much smaller ones). Still, it was a lively, involved performance, and he gets his second straight Man of the Match award.

F, Duncan McGuire, 6.5 — Like his strike partner, Muriel, McGuire also took three shots, one of which was off target, while the other two were blocked. He also recorded two key passes, two completed dribbles, one tackle, and one clearance. I would have liked to have seen him try to stretch Miami’s back line more than he did, but Oscar Pareja may well have given him different instructions. His work tracking back defensively was impressive, but it was an indictment of Orlando’s play in the second half that he had to pop up back there as often as he did.

Substitutes

WB, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, (79′), N/A — Brought on for Muriel, Dagur Dan slotted in at right wingback and had an extended cameo appearance, which wasn’t enough to earn a fair grade. Still, he contributed one clearance and two key passes, while accurately delivering all four of the passes he attempted.

WB, Rafael Santos, (80′), N/A — Santos came on for Angulo but went over to fill the left wingback role. He didn’t record any defensive statistics but completed two dribbles and 91% of his passes, and he was involved in some half-chances for the Lions as the game wound down.

F, Jack Lynn, (85′), N/A — Lynn entered the game for McGuire as the clock ticked ever closer to the 90th minute. He wasn’t super involved, and completed two of the three passes he attempted. He’ll want to have the other one back though, as he did really well to bring down a difficult ball and hold play up, only to misplay an easy pass to Santos with his left foot, which stopped a break before it started.

F, Yutaro Tsukada, (90’+3), N/A — We got the briefest of looks at the man the Lions signed to a short-term agreement from OCB for the next two matches. Despite coming on late, he had a chance to make the biggest impact of the night, but volleyed a tricky chance over the bar and out of play with the last action of the night.


How did you see the individual performances in this game? Make your voice heard down in the comments, and be sure to vote in our Man of the Match poll. Vamos Orlando!

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