The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.

Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.

With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:

• A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
• Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
• Three shots that hit the woodwork.
• Six “big chances” squandered.

Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.

A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time

My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.

I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%

Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese

I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.

Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%

Three shots that hit the woodwork

The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.

Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%

Six “big chances” squandered

Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.

Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%

If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.

There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:

Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15

That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.

There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.

I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.

Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.

Vamos Orlando!

The loss to the Philadelphia Union was not at all how Orlando City wanted to start the 2025 season. Now, the club must move on from the 4-2 defeat in order to deal with a visiting Toronto FC Saturday night. The Lions are notorious for having slow starts to the season, but after last week, getting some points against Toronto is imperative.

How the Lions bounce back from an embarrassing defeat to start the season will determine how big the climb up to the top will be. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points at home against Toronto FC?

Deal with the Italian

Toronto has a forward named Federico Bernadeschi. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He scored eight goals for Toronto last season, and he already has one this season. Granted, he scored that goal on a penalty kick against D.C. United, but he is still a dangerous player for the Canadian side.

My worry is that Bernadeschi typically lines up on the right side of Toronto’s attack, meaning it will be up to Rafael Santos to deal with him. I mentioned last week that we need “Good” Rafa to show up earlier this season. Unfortunately, it was still “Bad” Rafa we saw against the Union. His job doesn’t get any easier this week, making his performance crucial in limiting Bernadeschi’s impact.

Limit the Lapses

It took less than four minutes for Philadelphia to put the match out of reach last Saturday. Orlando Pride Head Coach Seb Hines often speaks of the importance of the times right before and right after the half. Two Union goals in the first six minutes of the second half determined the match. Orlando City cannot let that happen again.

There is a real possibility that the Lions will once again be without Robin Jansson against Toronto. The back line must limit the mistakes and mental lapses that doomed them on Saturday. In particular, Rodrigo Schlegel and David Brekalo need to find the necessary chemistry to solidify the defense against Toronto’s attack.

Keep Creating Chances

Another match, another good keeper for the opposition. This week, Orlando City will need to put the ball past Toronto’s Sean Johnson. Last weekend, the Lions created plenty of chances with 22 shots, putting nine on target, and two in the net. In many matches, that is enough to at least get a result if not a win. They need to do more of that against Toronto.

I’m not expecting Marco Pasalic to equal his production from his first match, but I liked his willingness to take shots. I was worried about Orlando City’s offensive capabilities without Duncan McGuire or another prototypical striker. Actually, I’m still worried about it, but if the Lions can continue to create chances against Toronto like they did last week against Philadelphia, that will be a good thing. Of course, finishing those chances will always be key.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I haven’t done too much this week beyond working, but I did manage to put together a cat tree that my cat has already sent crashing into a wall twice so far. Pet ownership has been a joy, I must say. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

Learning More About Ramiro Enrique

Orlando City put a spotlight on forward Ramiro Enrique with a nice video showcasing what he brings to the team for the 2025 season. Along with interviews from Enrique and Head Coach Oscar Pareja, the video includes highlights of his some of his biggest moments as a Lion so far. The 23-year-old spoke on how his father, World Cup winner Hector Enrique, is a major inspiration for him and how he’s both a scorer and Orlando’s first line of defense. Pareja praised both Enrique’s natural talent and his commitment to improving himself moving forward. It’s a pretty well-produced video and I’m looking forward to seeing the profiles for other Lions as well throughout the season.

USWNT Falls to Japan in SheBelieves Cup

The United States Women’s National Team lost its final game of the 2025 SheBelieves Cup, falling 2-1 to Japan in San Diego. Japan took an early lead, but Ally Sentnor tied things up soon after with her second goal of the tournament. Toko Koga then scored for Japan in the 50th minute and the U.S. was unable to find the back of the net again against Japan’s solid defense. Orlando Pride defender Emily Sams did not play in the match despite a strong showing against Australia on Sunday. It’s the USWNT’s first loss under Head Coach Emma Hayes and its first time losing the tournament since England won it in 2019.

In what was effectively the third-place match, Colombia beat Australia 2-1 to finish the tournament on a high note. Australia’s Hayley Raso equalized things in the second half, but Catalina Usme gave Colombia its winner a few minutes later.

Bay FC Scouting Director Resigns Amid Backlash

Graeme Abel, who was hired as Bay FC’s director of domestic scouting last week, has resigned from his position. This decision comes after backlash from his hiring due to reported allegations of abuse by former players from his time as the University of Oregon’s women’s soccer coach. A report last April detailed allegations of verbal abuse that included threatening to revoke scholarships, having players kicked off the team, and throwing objects, with players stating that they dealt with suicidal ideation while playing there.

Concacaf Champions Cup Results

Real Salt Lake was eliminated from the Concacaf Champions Cup after losing 2-1 at home to Costa Rican club Herediano. The MLS side took the lead in the first half, but Herediano leveled things in the second half and sealed victory with a late penalty kick. FC Cincinnati took care of business at home in a 1-1 draw against Honduran club Motagua, with Kevin Denkey scoring in his third straight game for his new team. The Seattle Sounders also reached the next round, beating Guatemala’s Antigua GFC 3-1. Cincinnati will face Tigres in the round of 16, while the Sounders will take on Cruz Azul. The first round wraps up tonight when the Vancouver Whitecaps host Saprissa for the final spot in the round of 16, which kicks off on Tuesday.

Free Kicks

• The Orlando Pride will unveil their new home jersey for the 2025 season today and I’m pretty excited to see what they’ve come up with. I’m also looking forward to seeing the team sport a shiny new star after winning last year, as teased by Marta.

• The Pride gave a shoutout to coaches Seb Hines, Giles Barnes, and Yolanda Thomas this Black History Month.

• In its hunt for a striker, Real Salt Lake reportedly inquired about Duncan McGuire, with Orlando City rejecting the offer.
• The U.S. U-19 Women’s National Team beat Spain in a penalty shootout in its last game of the L’Albir U-19 Women’s International Tournament.

• The MLS season’s first Goal of the Matchday went to Atlanta United midfielder Edwin Mosquera for his late winner against CF Montreal.
• The Portland Thorns announced that Morgan Weaver, Nicole Payne, and Marie Muller were all placed on the season-ending injury list.
• D.C. United added 18-year-old winger Fidel Barajas on loan from Chivas Guadalajara through June of this year, with an option to extend the loan through the rest of 2025.
• Brian White, who has led the Whitecaps with 55 goals across all competitions since joining the team in 2021, signed a contract extension that will keep him in Vancouver through 2027.
• Australian radio host Marty Sheargold was fired for his disparaging remarks about Australia’s women’s soccer team and the SheBelieves Cup.
• Juventus was eliminated by Empoli in the Italian Cup quarterfinals, falling in the penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw. Americans Weston McKennie and Tim Weah both started, but neither took penalty kicks in the shootout.
• Marseille President Pablo Longoria was suspended for 15 games by Ligue 1 after accusing referees of corruption following his team’s 3-0 loss to Auxerre.
• We end our links with some Pictionary between Enrique and Rodrigo Schlegel. While I’m convinced neither of them know how to play beyond Enrique’s insistence on drawing nothing but shirts, it’s entertaining.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Thursday and rest of your week!