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Intelligence Report: Orlando City at Portland Timbers

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Orlando City hits the Pacific Northwest for the second time this season (following the 1-1 draw at Seattle back in June), as the Lions head to Providence Park for the one and only meeting with the Portland Timbers on Sunday.

Cyle Larin will have fond memories of his last visit to Providence Park, where he scored his first professional goal in a 2-0 win back in April of 2015. The Lions kept Timber Joey’s chainsaw silent that day, but doing that again will not be easy.

Here to tell us more about the Timbers is Will Conwell from SB Nation Portland blog, Stumptown Footy. I’ve answered their questions as well,and you can check those out over at their place.

It’s been a long time since these teams have played. What’s different about the 2017 Portland Timbers?

Will Conwell: The last time that the Portland Timbers faced off against Orlando City was the end of Caleb Porter’s 4-3-3, with Darlington Nagbe at holding midfield. Nagbe has since reprised his role as a No. 8, but it was that loss that truly convinced Timbers fans that the MLS Cup run was over and that 2016 was a new year.

In 2016, Lucas Melano was still the hope of the Timbers, a $5 million signing with speed to burn and the potential to be a star. Now Melano is out and Sebastian Blanco is in. Where Melano was an up and coming youngster, Blanco is a player in his prime; where Melano’s game was all-out attack, Blanco is a two-way player who gets stuck in on both sides of the ball; and where the enduring image of Melano is of him walking back behind the play (despite being instrumental in the Timbers’ 2015 cup run and win), the image of Blanco is always of a player getting stuck in.

In 2016, the Timbers had replaced the injured Liam Ridgewell with Jamaican mainstay and MLS journeyman Jermaine Taylor. This year, the Timbers brought in Congolese international Larrys Mabiala, a TAM signing, to shore up their back line. A strong, ball-winning center back, Mabiala has already proven his worth to the Timbers, helping to strengthen a back line that has had significant issues this year.

In 2016, the Timbers were still struggling to sort out a lineup that had been gutted by their cup run, losing left back Jorge Villafana and left winger Rodney Wallace to the ravages of the salary cap. Early 2016 was a downswing for the Timbers; now Orlando faces a Timbers side on the upswing.

Diego Valeri is always good but he seems to have found another gear in 2017. How has he evolved into a strong MVP candidate?

WC: Over the last two years following the Timbers’ MLS Cup win in 2015, Diego Valeri has transformed himself from a master playmaker (23 goals and 35 assists in 86 games from 2013-2015) into a scoring machine (32 goals and 16 assists in 58 games from 2016 to 2017). That transformation has come as a result of significant changes in both Valeri’s game and the game of the Timbers as a whole.

The changes in Valeri’s game can largely be traced back to the arrival of Fanendo Adi in 2014 and Valeri’s extended absence at the start of the 2015 season as he recovered from a torn ACL. With Valeri out, still recovering in the beginning of 2015, and Adi providing the focal point of the Timbers’ attack as he came into his own as a target forward, opening up space for those playing off him, the Timbers’ shape changed dramatically. Rather than three forwards making runs for their No. 10 in the center of the pitch, the Timbers were now two wingers making runs off of their No. 9 and an attacking midfielder with space in which to work on the edge of the area, as Adi drew in two or three defenders at a time with his hold-up play.

With that sort of black hole for defenders at the top of the Timbers’ formation opening up space, it only made sense for Diego Valeri to shoot, rather than looking for the weighted pass with which he had prospered in his early days with the Timbers. Thankfully for Timbers fans, Valeri is very good at shooting.

Now focused on taking advantage of that space, rather than simply making space for others, Valeri changed his game up. And as the Timbers continued to mold their play around strong hold-up from their forwards, it paid off.

What tactics have been successful for teams who have taken points against Portland this season both on offense and defense?

WC: The Timbers have allowed a lot of goals this year, so narrowing it down is difficult on the defensive side of the ball, but even so there are three approaches that teams have taken this season that stick out.

First, the Timbers have struggled under high pressure at times this season. While the back line looks much improved from where it was in the middle of the season, the Timbers have still shown some significant cases of nerves when put under aggressive pressure from opposition forwards. (Hello, Dom Dwyer.)

Perhaps this is down to the team’s constantly rotating back six failing to gel — injuries, call ups, and suspensions have wreaked havoc on the Timbers this year — but that the sort of silly, errant passes under pressure are still happening this late in the season is a source of worry. Liam Ridgewell is certainly still in need of time to settle in after his most recent extended absence due to injury, but Timbers backups Roy Miller and Lawrence Olum have each seen plenty of minutes this year.

Second, the Timbers have shown a propensity for giving up free kicks, getting unsettled, and failing to clear the ball in a timely fashion. This is a far more erratic aspect of the Timbers’ game and one that seems to surface at the most unseemly of times. While the back line’s struggles elsewhere can be blamed on familiarity, this seems more like an organizational issue. 

Neither Jake Gleeson nor Jeff Attinella have looked particularly impressive in goal this year and a large part of that has come in these sorts of situations, sometimes failing to punch or grab a free kick into the box, or getting caught up in the chaos of the scrum. This would be less of an issue if the Timbers had a more vocal presence on the back line, but the side’s captain, Ridgewell, has been in and out of availability all year.

Finally, when it comes to shutting down the Timbers attack — particularly without Adi on the pitch — nothing beats packing it in and daring the Timbers to cross the ball. While the Timbers do have the highest scoring attack in the Western Conference, without Adi to toss around opposing center backs like leaves on the wind everything becomes just a little bit harder for everyone else on the team.

Denying space to Valeri is difficult but doable, but denying Darlington Nagbe and Sebastian Blanco space to work the ball into the box is much easier. Both players are capable of uncorking a shot from distance, but Nagbe has been notoriously goal-averse in recent seasons and Blanco seems to still be finding his legs in MLS, although five goals and seven assists as a first-year winger is nothing to scoff at. Without Adi to draw players away and create space, even the energetic runs of Darren Mattocks are rarely able to open up a gap for the Timbers’ wide players to squeeze through.

Injuries?/Suspensions?/Projected Starting XI?/Score Prediction?

WC: Injuries — Out: Gbenga Arokoyo, Chance Myers, Marco Farfan; Questionable: Jeff Attinella, Vytas Andriuškevičius, Fanendo Adi, David Guzman.

Suspensions — None.

Projected starting XI — Jake Gleeson; Vytas Andriuškevičius, Liam Ridgewell, Larrys Mabiala, Zarek Valentin; David Guzman, Diego Chara; Sebastian Blanco, Diego Valeri, Darlington Nagbe; Darren Mattocks.

Prediction — 2-1, Portland.


Big thanks to Will from Stumptown Footy for taking time out to give us some background on the Timbers.

Orlando City

Orlando City Relies on Starters More Than Any Other MLS Team

An analysis of Óscar Pareja’s early lineup choices and substitution patterns and how that compares to the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Legendary swordsman Inigo Montoya, a man who is not lefthanded, once opened a conversation by asking the Dread Pirate Roberts if, by any chance, he had six fingers on his right hand. Nobody will need to prepare to die by the end of this column, but I will ask a similar question: I don’t mean to pry, but did you by any chance happen to realize that we are already more than one-sixth of the way through the MLS regular season? Six fingers, one-sixth of the season…close enough. Let’s go.

Time flies when you are having fun, and somehow Orlando City has already played 540 minutes of MLS soccer this season. I consider 500 minutes played to be a cutoff amount when looking at player and lineup performance, and with the conclusion of the most recent game in Los Angeles, the team has now surpassed that 500-minute threshold.

In looking at the opening 540 minutes, I was surprised to see how much continuity I found in the minutes played, considering how many injuries the Lions have had to work around during these first six games. In just the first six games, Orlando City has already had full games missed due to injury by César Araujo (1), David Brekalo (2), Robin Jansson (2), Duncan McGuire (3) and Nico Rodriguez (5). Brekalo and Pedro Gallese both missed a game for international duty as well. McGuire was not expected back during the first set of games, but all of those other players, with the possible exception of Rodriguez, were expected to contribute during the early part of the season.

These absences led to games where the substitutes list was full of players who will play big minutes for Orlando City B this year, but not players who Óscar Pareja was likely to turn to off the bench unless the game was out of hand or he was absolutely desperate. According to Opta’s tracking through the opening six games, Orlando City ranks last in MLS in the average minutes played by its substitutes, as the average amount of time per appearance for the players off the bench for the Lions is only 12 minutes. For context, 16 teams have an average amount of time per substitute appearance of 20 minutes or greater, and Inter Miami and Toronto are tied with a league-leading 27 minutes per substitute appearance.

The interesting thing about those two teams, Miami and Toronto, is that Miami leads the league in points per match with 2.6 and Toronto is second from the bottom with a scant 0.33 points per match. I think a lot of this data will even out over time, as right now there are several teams, including Miami, that are playing in multiple competitions and trying to keep players fresh for all of their matches.

When it comes to Orlando City, however, that is not the case, and thus far there has just been the standard one game per week on six consecutive Saturdays. The players are rested for each game. The issue has just been that Pareja has not had the depth and variety of players he thought he would have to bring off the bench to protect a lead or chase a deficit.

We often joke in articles or on The Mane Land PawedCast about how “Óscar gonna Óscar,” and once he finds a lineup he likes, he sticks with it. Even with all the injuries he has somehow managed to do this again this season, as you can see from the chart below. I started tracking lineup data last season, and even though the 2025 season is only six games old and there have been so many absences from key players this season, it was striking to see that the 11-man lineup that has played the most minutes together this season already outranks all but two lineups from the entire 2024 MLS season (including the five playoff games!):

Now, it is a little unfair to the one 2025 lineup on the above chart that it has such a negative goal differential per 90 minutes, because if it is only the 10 field players, with goalkeeper excluded, then that lineup has played 215 minutes together and has a +0.84 goal differential per 90 minutes. That group is +4 with Javier Otero in net in 74 minutes together, and removing the goalkeepers from the calculation turns that negative goal differential into a positive.

What that also tells us, however, is that when it comes to the 10 field players, Pareja has played the same unit in the field for 40% (215/540) of the team’s minutes already. Granted it is early in the season, but after six MLS games last season, the lineup that had played together the most had played a grand total of 74 minutes together (14% of all minutes). The top five most used lineups in last season’s opening six MLS games combined to play 302 minutes, or 56% of all minutes, and in 2025 it is 402 minutes, or 80%. My math, and everyone else’s math, says that is a much higher percentage and indicates that the team is focused on continuity early.

That continuity thus far this season has paid dividends, with the Lions earning 10 points from the first six games, twice as nice as last season’s five points after the first six games. Last year, the team was balancing midweek Concacaf Champions Cup games in addition to injuries and an international break during the opening weeks of the MLS season, so there were some good reasons for the lineup rotation and the slow start. This year’s squad will have to navigate two upcoming cup tournaments in the coming months, and so we likely will see a lot of new lineup configurations or more rotation once the U.S. Open Cup starts in May and then again when Leagues Cup starts in July.

Thus far though, Pareja has been able to stick with his starters deep into matches, and has only given playing time to 20 players, which is tied for third fewest across all of MLS. Fan bases often clamor for the coach to “play the kids,” but while Pareja has had young and inexperienced players on the senior roster for every game, he really has only given significant minutes to Alex Freeman from the group of players that could be referred to as “the kids.” Gustavo Caraballo has played nine minutes, which is incredible for a 16-year-old (15-year-old Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia is the only player younger than Caraballo to have played this season, and he has also played only nine minutes), and new signing Nico Rodriguez (20 years old) has played 11 minutes, but the next three youngest players to play are all at least 22 and were with the senior club last season (Otero and Ramiro Enrique) or came to the club after four seasons of college soccer (23-year-old, but nearly 24-year-old, Joran Gerbet).

The team’s record thus far shows that Pareja has been right to limit the minutes to the small group of players he trusts, and with one game per week for the next six weeks it will be interesting to see if the early trend of starters playing long minutes and only a few players getting all the minutes off the bench continues. The next match is on the road against Philadelphia, which so rudely came into Orlando and defeated the Lions 4-2 in the season opener, and my expectation is that while we likely will not see any players make their season debut in this game, I do think we will see a different starting lineup than the season opener and probably a different one than the game last weekend against the Galaxy.

No matter who the Lions go with, I am sure they will want to avenge the season-opening loss and bring three points back home to Orlando.

As we wish.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City at Philadelphia Union: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points on the road against Philly?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City is on the road yet again, this time heading to Pennsylvania to take on the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park Saturday night. The Lions will look to get a second road win in a row after the smash-and-grab victory against the LA Galaxy. Things don’t get any easier with the Union sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference, but a win would catapult Orlando City above Philadelphia in the standings. Here’s what Orlando City needs to do to earn all three points against the Philadelphia Union.

Tie up Tai

Tai Baribo leads the way-too-early-to-call Golden Boot race with six goals in five matches. The Union striker has taken 13 shots, putting eight on target and the aforementioned six in the back of the net. He scored a brace in the season opener against Orlando to bag a third of those goals. It’s a pretty easy call to say stopping the league leader in goals is an important part of shutting down the Philadelphia attack.

It will be up to Cesar Araujo and whichever center back pairing we get to shut Baribo down. Of course, he’s not the only one the Lions need to worry about since the Union also have striker Mikael Uhre, and midfielders Daniel Gazdag and Jovan Lukic providing goals and assists. The point is that Philadelphia is second only to the Lions in offensive production with 13 goals compared to Orlando City’s 15 goals.

Formation Change

In the last match against the LA Galaxy, the Lions struggled to get things going with Luis Muriel up top, Ojeda at the No. 10 spot and Ivan Angulo on the left. Once Duncan McGuire came on, Muriel shifted back, Ojeda went wide, and Angulo subbed off. That really opened up the attack and allowed the Lions to get the two goals needed to secure the victory.

Perhaps Oscar Pareja could start things off like that against Philadelphia. Angulo hasn’t been great the last few matches, and perhaps some time on the bench will get his head straight. McGuire is still early in his return from injury, but Ramiro Enrique can start up top with Big Dunc coming in later as he has the last few matches. I think making this change could help Orlando City get an early goal on the road.

Vengeance is Thine

When the two teams met on opening day, the Union dropped four goals on Orlando City in Inter&Co Stadium. You would think it a completely dominating performance, but the Lions actually had more shots, more shots on target, and more possession than the Union. Philadelphia simply put each of its four shots on target past Pedro Gallese. That type of luck is unlikely to happen again.

Since that time, the Orlando City defense has stiffened — at least a little bit — and the team has been more difficult to break down. I’m not saying the defense is as stalwart as last season, but it has improved. Orlando City needs to use that four-goal drubbing at the hands of the Union to galvanize the defense to enact revenge with a multi-goal victory of its own.


That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/3/25

Martin Ojeda in the MLS MVP mix early, Orlando Pride players won’t play for Zambia this window, Tierna Davidson out for the NWSL season, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I hope this week has been going well for you as we gear up for a busy Saturday filled to the brim with soccer to enjoy. Despite my blender’s protests, I’ve finally figured out how to make frozen coconut mojitos and plan on having those get me through the rest of the week. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy 28th birthday to Orlando City legend Rodrigo Schlegel!

Martin Ojeda’s MVP Credentials

Orlando City’s Martin Ojeda placed second in Sacha Kljestan’s MLS MVP power rankings this week. With four goals and three assists so far this season, Ojeda leads the league in goal contributions and is a major reason why the Lions have scored a league-high 15 goals. It’s great to see the 26-year-old take the reins of the offense after Facundo Torres’ departure. Inter Miami’s Luis Suarez tops Kljestan’s rankings, despite only having a goal in five games this season. Tai Baribo, Evander, and Lionel Messi round out the top five in what could be an interesting MVP race this year.

Pride Players Won’t Join Zambia For International Duty

Zambia will be without four NWSL players when it takes part in the Yongchuan International Tournament in China this month. Along with Bay FC forward Rachael Kundananji, Orlando Pride trio Barbra Banda, Grace Chanda, and Prisca Chilufya were withdrawn from international duty, with the Football Association of Zambia stating it was due to additional travel measures by the current U.S. administration. FAZ General Secretary Reuben Kamanga expects the quartet to be available for future matches and both Banda and Kundananji played in friendlies in Zambia in February. Restrictions like this may limit the appeal of the NWSL to foreign players in the future.

Fan Banned For Hateful Language Towards Banda

NJ/NY Gotham FC announced that the fan who directed hateful language towards Banda has been banned following an investigation that included interviewing witnesses and reviewing security footage. The incident took place at the Pride’s match against Gotham on March 23 at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The fan was found to be in violation of the NWSL Code of Conduct and their season ticket was revoked as well. Gotham also encouraged fans to report inappropriate behavior through the team’s encrypted text message service to inform the stadium’s incident management team.

USWNT Defender Tierna Davidson Out for the NWSL Season

American center back Tierna Davidson will miss the remainder of the 2025 NWSL season after tearing the ACL in her left knee in the club’s draw against the Houston Dash. It’s tough news for her, Gotham, and the United States Women’s National Team, as she captains the NWSL club and featured heavily in the Olympics last year. Davidson sustained an ACL injury in her right knee back in 2022, which contributed to her missing out on the 2023 World Cup. Gisele Thompson replaced Davidson for the USWNT’s upcoming friendlies with Brazil, and Pride defender Emily Sams will likely receive more playing time as the team prepares for the 2027 World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando City received $100,000 in General Allocation Money in exchange for former academy goalkeeper Zack Campagnolo’s Homegrown Player rights. The Lions will receive another $100,000 in GAM if conditions are met, and they retain a sell-on percentage if Campagnolo is transferred.
  • San Diego FC added Milan Iloski on loan from FC Nordsjaelland in Denmark through July of this year. Iloski is a San Diego native and won the USL Golden Boot for Orange County SC in 2022.
  • New England Revolution midfielder Carles Gil won MLS Goal of the Matchday for his free kick against the New York Red Bulls.
  • El Farolito SC, which is named after a burrito chain and bar local to San Francisco, has reached the third round of the U.S. Open Cup for the second straight year. The National Premier Soccer League side took down Monterey Bay FC to reach this point of the tournament.
  • Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 to book its ticket to the Copa del Rey final, where it will face rival Real Madrid on April 26.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a terrific Thursday and rest of your week!

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