Orlando City
Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Remain Perfect at Home
Substitute Servando Carrasco supplied the only goal of the game and the Lions had to defend much of the final 30 minutes to earn their third win of the year.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/RPW_4958.jpg)
Servando Carrasco’s goal in the 34th minute in relief of an injured Antonio Nocerino was all that separated Orlando City and the New York Red Bulls. With the 1-0 victory in front of a sellout crowd of 25,527, the Lions (3-1-0, 9 points) improved to a perfect 3-0-0 in Orlando City Stadium.
New York (2-3-1, 7 points) lined up what felt like a million set pieces in the game’s last half hour but could not find a way to tickle the twine in the back of Joe Bendik’s net. Bendik and the back four did their jobs well and the team escaped with another close win at its new purple palace.
“I think it was a hard-fought game for sure,” Carrasco said. “It wasn’t pretty at times but the guys showed tremendous fight. To come out of this game with three points was definitely the goal.”
Orlando City came out in a surprise 4-4-2 diamond after going with a flat 4-4-2 for the team’s first three matches. Scott Sutter got his first start at right back and Will Johnson played the right side of the diamond, opposite Cristian Higuita. Antonio Nocerino manned the bottom of the formation and Matias Perez Garcia played up top, beneath strikers Cyle Larin and Carlos Rivas.
The new formation was evident early as the Lions often struggled to find the next pass as it appeared players had to think rather than react naturally under pressure. This led to some turnover issues and broke up promising attacks.
“My experience is that playing in that way you tend to put yourself in spaces where you can find the ball a lot more and maintain the rhythm or set the rhythm of the game,” Kreis said after the match. “But it also takes time. I think we suffered a little bit in the first half just because that was the first time we’ve done it. It’s also that a coach wants to play a couple of different ways. I’d like to not walk into every match and have the opponent know exactly what you’re going to be doing.”
“The idea was to try and have an extra man in midfield to keep the ball a bit better,” Spector said. “And we did make some good passing combinations during the game but not consistently enough. I think it can be a good formation for us going forward but perhaps we need a little bit more time to work on that.”
However, in the fifth minute, the strength of the formation showed, as the pitch got congested on the left, allowing Sutter to sneak down the right side. Larin’s pass picked him out but there wasn’t enough weight on it and the defense closed, but Sutter still worked hard to earn the game’s first corner. The set piece was poor, however, and New York broke on the counter, with Derrick Etienne racing down the field before being dispossessed by Johnson, just as Sutter was whistled for a foul. The long free kick found the head of Bradley Wright-Phillips but he had nothing on his attempt and it was off target.
After that, Rivas had a good spell in possession before having his shot at the top of the box blocked in the 11th minute. New York came back in the next minute with a perfectly lobbed long ball over the top for BWP. Bendik blocked his shot, but it deflected back toward goal and Jonathan Spector made a sliding save to clear it off the line.
Rivas nearly broke the scoreless deadlock in the 14th with a shot that took a slight deflection. Luis Robles made a diving save but spilled it. Unfortunately, it didn’t travel far from him and he was able to pounce on it. A minute later, Robles showed good strength in a midair collision with Larin and got to a cross to win it from the Canadian.
In the 17th minute, Antonio Nocerino — celebrating his 32nd birthday — got the worst present ever. The Italian pulled up lame without contact and had to be subbed off due to injury. Carrasco replaced him. After the match, Kreis said Nocerino sustained a calf strain and will be evaluated further on Monday.
The chess match continued, with Kemar Lawrence sneaking down the left and getting a shot on target in the 21st minute, but it had little power and was easy for Bendik. A minute later, Sutter fired just over the bar from the top of the box. In the 24th minute, MPG took a Rivas pass that nutmegged a defender and fired a shot that fizzed just inches wide of the left post, as Orlando got closer and closer to a breakthrough.
That breakthrough came in the 34th minute. City earned a corner and Johnson delivered a good ball in to the near post. Multiple defenders ran with Larin but the ball flew over them to Carrasco, who nodded home for his first MLS goal since 2013 when he was with Seattle. Johnson got the assist. It was the Lions’ first goal of the season that was scored by someone other than Larin, putting Orlando City up, 1-0.
“It means a lot because we won the game,” Carrasco said. “The fact that I scored is secondary to me. The fact that I could contribute is the main thing. Will played a fantastic ball and I was just lucky to be at the right place.”
New York battled hard after the goal and earned multiple set pieces but could not get much directed at Bendik’s net. Orlando City’s last good chance of the half came in the 43rd minute, with Sutter missing just wide of the post. BWP scored in first-half stoppage time but was correctly ruled offside and Ismail Elfath waved off the goal.
Orlando City out-shot New York in the first half, but the Red Bulls got three on frame to Orlando’s two. The Red Bulls held 55% of the possession and were more accurate in passing the ball (75.5%-63.9%).
The game opened up to start the second half, with both teams getting some chances in the early part of the second period.
Bendik came off his line to make a vital challenge to keep Etienne from reaching a pass in the box. Then, on the other end, Larin somehow missed off a gorgeous cross from Rivas in the 52nd minute. In the 56th minute, Higuita took a pass from MPG on the left side of the box and fired just over the net on a slight deflection.
In the 58th minute Higuita slotted in to Rivas in the box but he lost control trying to tee it up on his left foot. A minute later, MPG skied one into the upper deck of the south grandstand.
Former Lion Aurelien Collin’s header off a free kick was on target in the 62nd but he didn’t get all of it and it was right at Bendik on a hop. The set piece was set up by a foul on Higuita and the young Colombian compounded his error when he said something to Elfath and was booked. Collin again got a free header in the 64th on a corner kick but sent this one wide to the left of goal.
In the 67th minute, Larin was sent alone on Robles but was robbed by a diving save. Rivas played a quick ball to MPG, who released the Canadian. Larin then beat the defense but shot from the top of the box with a third defender cutting off his angle. Robles still made a hell of a save.
Kreis sacrificed Higuita — likely due to the yellow card — in the 69th minute, replacing him with Giles Barnes. The team took more of a flat 4-4-2 look after the switch.
The game got choppy after that, with Elfath giving foul after foul. The Red Bulls started racking up set pieces in good areas. The Lions started to do a better job of tracking Collin, however. One such set piece turned into an Orlando counter that saw Giles Barnes get taken down by Collin just above the box. Collin was booked and Rivas sent the ensuing free kick a few feet over the bar.
Luis Gil came on for a battered MPG in the 84th minute, making his Orlando City debut.
Collin again nearly brought his team level in the 85th, heading a free kick cross just wide of the right post after a Barnes foul, as the free kicks continued to mount. Gil went into Elfath’s book in the 86th minute for a late challenge and the Lions nearly paid dearly for it. BWP shot from the left just after the restart and Bendik made a vital save.
“The negative is that we’ve got to be better with the ball,” Kreis said. “We cannot force ourselves to defend for such long stretches in matches like these against opponents like these because in some moment you’re going to break and you’ll have lost all of the momentum that we should gain, especially when we’re winning the game by a goal. It’s game management issues I think we’ll continue to work on and we’ll continue to improve on.”
BWP tried his luck from distance in the 88th despite harassment from Redding and his shot was well off the mark. That was about the last real volley fired in a 90+ minute war between the two Eastern Conference sides.
“I think in all three of the home matches I thought a lot of the same things after the match,” Kreis said. “So many positive statements to make about effort level, intensity level, commitment of the players to defend — real, real signs of togetherness and just a fortitude that says we won’t be broken at home. And so [I’m] really, really pleased with that.”
New York finished with 61.2% possession and more shots on target (4-3) despite both teams having 12 total attempts. The Red Bulls attempted 403 total passes to Orlando’s 268.
The Lions are back in action at home Saturday against the LA Galaxy at 3 p.m.
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DSC_0068.jpg)
Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride vs. Houston Dash: Final Score 1-0 as Pride Set New NWSL Unbeaten Record
-
Orlando City B2 weeks ago
Orlando City B vs. Atlanta United 2: Final Score 4-1 as Young Lions Blast Atlanta
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Player Grades and Man of the Match
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride Focused On More Than Records
-
Orlando Pride6 days ago
Orlando Pride vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Five Takeaways
-
Podcasts2 weeks ago
PawedCast Episode 442: Sporting Kansas City Rewind, OCB-Atlanta, Nashville Preview, and More
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More