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Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati

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5 years ago

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Orlando City’s already slim playoff hopes took yet another hit with New England’s comeback draw with Portland on Wednesday. While making the postseason is almost certainly no longer a reasonable achievement for the Lions, the team still needs to take care of business.

This week their business is FC Cincinnati, which means I once again spoke to Bill Wolf of Cincinnati Soccer Talk. He was kind to catch us up on how Cincy’s season has gone since these two teams last met.

It’s been a rough debut MLS season for FC Cincinnati, with the team’s 22 points the lowest number in the league. Does the team’s record and point total tell the whole story or has the season been better than the sometimes harsh data suggests?

Bill Wolf: Yep, we won the wooden spoon. Hardware our first season in MLS. Woohoo! Seriously though, the team, collectively, is obviously not good. I don’t think that is the whole story, but clinching the bottom of the table with games in hand, there isn’t much else to say. 

Are the individuals on this roster better than the record shows? I think absolutely. Should they have done better this season? I think absolutely. That said, I think the roster build was not done well. FCC ended up with like 50% midfielders, most of who would be labeled as eights. They had almost no wings. A few of the players are comfortable in the six spot, but none of them are that real enforcer last line of defense type. They have a few players who can step into the 10 spot but don’t have that creative player who can unlock a defense. FCC improved a bit in the summer transfer window. They brought a couple of wings in and have been playing with essentially two eights and a six, who at times tends to struggle.

If you look at what this team has gone through, it has been a hell year off the pitch as well. There were clashes with head coach Alan Koch that spilled out into the media — Koch blaming the results on his players and the players coming out with displays of solidarity. Ultimately, the club was forced to choose between letting their coach go or letting all of the players go. Obviously only one choice to make there. But that isn’t the end of it because change brings uncertainty. How do you get along with the new coach? Do you fit into their vision and style? So they began a period of time with interim head coach Yoann Damet. Change. Uncertainty. The club decided it needed to get its GM hired. It had put that off this season to focus on the front office, the stadium and the training facility, but it was obvious that more oversight and direction was required on the technical side. Gerard Nikamp is hired. More change. More uncertainty. Finally, the hunt is over and the club brings on our new coach, Ron Jans. Even more change. Even more uncertainty. 

Injuries have also killed Cincinnati this season. Their DP striker spent most of the season injured and only scored a single goal. They’re not expecting him back at this point this season. Spencer Richey, the starting keeper, tweaked his back and is out for the season most likely. Darren Mattocks, who has been the choice for striker, is now out for the remainder of the season. Allan Cruz, the leading scorer, is out with a concussion. They also lost Greg Garza for an extended period this season, throwing the back line into a mess. Lots of other smaller injuries of key players for two or three games throughout.

During the period under Damet, the team moved to a 4-3-3 formation and started playing a traditional Dutch style of press soccer. This seems to be the direction that Nikamp wants to take the team. However, the existing roster struggled with that. They couldn’t seem to figure out how to press and then break up the counter. They started bleeding goals: two games they gave up four goals, three games they gave up five goals and against Minnesota…seven goals. The team’s morale was crushed and they didn’t have the mentality to come back into a game and once the scoring started… 

The last three games, FCC has completely changed direction. Jans has implemented a much more defensive style of play. In the last three games, the have a record of 1-1-1, losing only to Atlanta United. They’ve earned two clean sheets. As I said, I think this roster is better than the stats show and under a coach they are motivated by, they are starting to see some results at the end of the season.

Long answer, sorry. Here’s the TLDR: Collectively they aren’t well formed and they’ve had a rough time off the pitch. They aren’t great but should be doing better.  

Last time we spoke we talked a little bit about Frankie Amaya. How has the rest of his season been? Is he continuing to develop?

BW: Frankie is a fan favorite. Everyone loves his drive and energy. If you look at the stats this season, such as successful passes, successful dribbles, interceptions, chances created, etc., you’ll find teammates who beat him in some stats, but overall he’s better than most. And at 18 years of age, he’s a top player on the team, playing with seasoned veterans. What he’s lacking is goal-scoring production, so we hope to see that change as he grows and matures as a player.

He did take a knock in July and was on and off the pitch for a bit, ultimately sitting out most of August to recover. It’s been great to have him back in the lineup. 

I’m hoping with the experience and the playing time he’s getting that he’ll start to fit into the plans for USMNT in the future. Missing the U-20 World Cup had to be a huge disappointment. Tab Ramos specifically mentioned him as a tough one to leave off, but at the time, he was not playing regularly for his club versus other players.

Heading into the off-season, what do you believe the biggest need is for the team? What area does it need to strengthen?

BW: I do think they’ll move back to a Dutch pressing style next season, so the team needs to make changes to support that. For me, that feels like a real solid six. They need someone sitting deeper in the midfield ahead of the back line who can break up counter attacks and tuck in and close gaps when the backs go forward. They need to be able to intercept or take the ball and they need to be able to distribute it to restart the press. 

Are there any injuries, suspensions, or call-ups that will keep players unavailable for selection? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

 BW: LOL. Sometimes we are asking who is available versus who isn’t? Mattocks is out for the season. Richey and Fanendo Adi are close to recovered but probably not able to be fit enough to play this season. Cruz has a concussion. Not sure of his status, but done for season wouldn’t surprise me. Kekuta Manneh is also injured and out for the season. Beyond that, Kendall Waston picked up his eighth yellow card versus Chicago so he is suspended. Interestingly, Nemanja Nikolic was fined post match for embellishment for that play, but at least at this point, I haven’t heard anything about rescinding the card.

For my lineup.

Przemysław Tyton; Mathieu Deplagne, Maikel van der Werff, Nick Hagglund, Greg Garza; Frankie Amaya, Caleb Stanko, Leonardo Bertone; Derrick Etienne, Emmanuel Ledesma, Joe Gyau.

I’m going to predict a 1-0 victory for FCC. In their last three games, if we ignore Atlanta and Josef Martinez, they have two shutouts and one win against teams in a similar position in the table as Orlando. Your scoring is not consistent and I’m hoping with the more defensive style FCC has been playing and the home crowd support, that the team will hold strong.

Big thanks to Bill for a great in-depth look at FC Cincinnati.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

15 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

17 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

21 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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