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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 1-1 as Wasteful Lions Squander Lots of Chances

The Lions can’t make it two straight wins over Atlanta only due to a lack of sharpness in front of goal and an unnecessary late turnover.

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4 years ago

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Carlos Romero, The Mane Land

Some draws feel like wins and others feel like losses. Tonight’s 1-1 draw at Exploria Stadium will go firmly into the latter for Orlando City. The Lions (4-2-4, 16 points) squandered numerous scoring chances throughout the game and made a deadly late turnover that gave Atlanta United (3-4-2, 11 points) the possession needed to steal a point late. Benji Michel put the Lions ahead in first-half stoppage time, but Adam Jahn’s header in second-half stoppage gave the visitors a point they had no business taking home.

Where a point might have once felt good against Atlanta, it certainly doesn’t tonight as the Lions owned this match and simply threw away far too many good opportunities to put it away. Orlando City is now 1-6-3 in the all-time series against Atlanta (1-7-3 in all competitions), and the Lions got their first ever point at home against the Five Stripes, “improving” to 0-4-1 at Exploria Stadium in the series.

“We have to put the games away when we can,” Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match, referring to the team’s lack of finishing. “It’s an ongoing process but the players know deep inside that they had a great game today. But we’re not there yet and we’re going to keep working.”

Pareja’s starting XI included Pedro Gallese in goal as usual, with Kamal Miller filling in for the injured Joao Moutinho at left back, alongside Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Uri Rosell and Sebas Mendez manned the central midfield with attacking midfielders Chris Mueller, Michel, and Mauricio Pereyra. Daryl Dike started up top.

Atlanta started the match pressing frantically to try to turn the Lions over, but Orlando handled it well and kept most of the ball for the opening 10 minutes. Mendez was set up nicely at the top of the area in the fourth minute, but he popped his shot high into the air and over the goal. The Lions looked to have a good counter going shortly after that, but Ruan sent his cross into the seats.

Once Atlanta got the ball, the Five Stripes started to keep it and hold onto it, probing for scoring chances. Orlando got whistled for several fouls to set up free kicks, helping the Five Stripes get set pieces, but they weren’t able to do much with them.

Mueller found some space outside the area in the middle in the 17th minute but didn’t get all of his shot, giving Brad Guzan an easy save.

Gallese made a save on Cubo Torres in the 27th minute after Mendez gambled during a double-team and ran past the Atlanta striker, igniting the opposition’s break.

After two weak shot attempts earlier in the game, Mendez nearly scored in the 34th minute, redirecting a cross from Michel toward the near post. Guzan stuck out a foot at the last second to make a vital save.

Orlando kept creating chances off of turnovers but not doing much with them. Mueller sent a great inside-out cross through the area for Michel in the 37th minute but Benji fired wide under heavy pressure from the defense. His shouts for a penalty went unheeded by the referee.

In the 39th minute, Orlando worked the ball up the left side and Mueller was fouled behind the play. With Dike on the ball and Orlando seemingly poised for an excellent scoring chance, the referee stopped play for no apparent reason and pulled the play back for a free kick. Carlos headed wide on the ensuing free kick.

Michel got inside in the 44th minute but he couldn’t get his shot on target and another chance was wasted. But the Lions finally broke through in first-half stoppage time.

A corner kick cross fell in the box and Dike was the first to react, spinning and firing toward goal. The shot was going to go wide but instead it hit Michel and deflected past Guzan to make it 1-0. Atlanta appealed for an offside call but Anton Walkes was clearly keeping Michel onside and the Lions took a lead into the break. It was Michel’s second goal in as many games and Dike’s third assist of the season.

Orlando finished the first half leading in shots (11-3), shots on goal (3-2), and passing percentage (81%-76%), but Atlanta held more possession (52.2%).

The Lions nearly conceded right out of the locker room again, which has been an issue this season. Torres headed just wide from in front, as Carlos had followed his man across the formation in the buildup, but his teammates failed to adequately cover for him.

Orlando City then created two more opportunities in the 50th but wasted them. On the first, Ruan made mincemeat of his defender at the end line but saw his cross cut out and on the second Michel nearly got in behind but George Bello made a last-ditch tackle to deny the shot.

Gallese comfortably denied Ezequiel Barco’s free kick attempt in the 62nd minute.

In the 67th minute, Orlando again failed to convert an excellent chance. Mueller sent Michel in to the area and the second-year player waited to make a decision, taking an extra touch. By the time he decided to shoot, Michel scuffed the shot and a golden opportunity didn’t even threaten Guzan in goal.

Nani, who entered the game as a second-half substitute, nearly doubled the lead in the 79th on a free kick after Junior Urso was taken down on the counter. Nani — who Pareja said hadn’t been starting the last couple of matches due to some inflammation in his groin — fired a shot off the left post. Urso got a touch on the rebound’s high bounce, with a gaping wide net, but he couldn’t make good contact with it and the Atlanta defense cleared it before it could cross the line.

Jahn nearly tied the game a minute later, splitting the two center backs and getting his head to a cross but he hit it at Gallese, who was well positioned to make the save.

The Lions appeared to be in control and comfortable as time wound down but a turnover changed the game’s outcome in stoppage time. Miller played a dangerous pass up the middle rather than safely to the side, where his teammates were directing him to go. His pass instead went straight into the feet of Emerson Hyndman, giving up possession unnecessarily. Atlanta poured numbers forward and the ball cycled over to the left to late sub Jake Mulraney, who fired in a cross. Miller ended up on Jahn and failed to deal with the forward, who got up and smashed a header into the corner where Gallese couldn’t reach it, tying the game in the 92nd minute.

Orlando fashioned one more good chance as Nani got to a bit of an off-line pass and toe-poked it across for Ruan on the right. Ruan had a good look but fizzed his shot wide of Guzan’s goal and time ran out moments later.

The Lions out-shot Atlanta 15-9, but the visitors were sharper, getting more on target (6-4). Atlanta’s passing improved while Orlando’s tailed off, with the Five Stripes finishing with an 85%-83% advantage to go along with 55.9% of the possession.

Dike called the 1-1 final “a pretty frustrating result.”

“You know, we fought really hard the entire game we had a lot of a lot of chances to go and finish,” he said. “I mean, you know, things aren’t always going to bounce your way. So, you know, on to the next one. I think maybe historically you know, the rivalry here, Atlanta sometimes might have come out on top and I think it says a lot about the expectations we have on ourselves that a draw isn’t enough for us anymore — that we expect to win every single game.”

“This week we just need to have a good week of practice, prepare for Miami, and then put this game behind us,” said Kyle Smith.

“Now we have a week to prepare our game against Miami, which is a tough rival also,” Pareja said. “But for sure is going to help us to recover some of the players because it has been tough activity for them with no resting.”

There’s just one match left on the schedule as announced so far, with the Lions hosting Inter Miami next Saturday at 7:30 p.m. to close Phase 1.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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3 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

5 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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9 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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