Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Austin FC: Final Score 2-2 as Lions Robbed in Texas
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/OCvFCC-2019.05-2-scaled.jpg)
You can’t really make up what happened to Orlando City in the second half while up 2-0 at Austin FC. But you don’t have to make it up because we’ve all seen this movie before.
The Lions (6-4-3, 21 points) went down two men in the second half, allowing Austin FC (7-3-3, 24 points) to rally back for a 2-2 draw at Q2 Stadium in Austin, TX, in the first-ever meeting between the two teams. Referee Joe Dickerson made sure he was the star of the show by sending off Rodrigo Schlegel for a second yellow card for handball within seconds — with the second one in the box and highly suspect. He sent off Cesar Araujo minutes later for a warranted dangerous play as the Orlando midfielder foolishly kicked out after being stepped on by Alex Ring.
Finally, Dickerson awarded a corner kick that certainly appeared to be a goal kick deep in stoppage time, from which the hosts tied the game. In fact, it was the player — Moussa Djitte — who appeared to touch the ball last before it went out who then scored the tying goal.
All of that aside, it was Orlando City’s own fault for not putting the game away by halftime with the unbelievable chances the Lions wasted.
“Well, first just allow me to recognize the effort of the players today, trying to overcome all those things that happened, especially at the end and in the second half, with many unfair things happened,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “But I guess we’ve got to take it. We played a very good game until all those things came in the second half.”
Pareja’s starting lineup offered no surprises. Pedro Gallese took his spot in goal behind a back line of Joao Moutinho, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Ruan. Cesar Araujo played in the central midfield with Andres Perea — starting his third consecutive game in all competitions. Junior Urso functioned as a winger on an attacking midfield line with Mauricio Pereyra and Facundo Torres, with Ercan Kara up top.
The Lions jumped on top in the second minute. Austin goalkeeper Brad Stuver tried playing out of the back but sent his pass right to Urso. The Bear sent the ball to Kara in front and the Austrian redirected it just inside the right post to make it 1-0. It was Kara’s third goal of the MLS season — fourth in all competitions — and the fourth-fastest goal from the start of a match in club history.
Pouncing on the early chances 🔥 #DaleMiAmor | #VamosOrlando pic.twitter.com/RDn1w7NCHM
— Orlando City SC (@OrlandoCitySC) May 23, 2022
“We wanted to press them right from the first minute and we did it very good,” Kara said. “And the goalkeeper (made) a mistake and Urso (saw) me very good, and played me the ball, and the rest was an easy finish.”
The first two opportunities for Austin came off of turnovers by Araujo in the midfield. The first didn’t result in a clear-cut chance but in the ninth minute, the miscue led to a shot by Maxi Urruti that smashed off the left post. The rebound was cleared behind for an Austin corner with Diego Fagundez lurking.
Following a good spell by Austin, the Lions doubled the lead. Moutinho sent the ball down the left for Torres. The Young Designated Player got to the end line and crossed back into the area for Kara. The ball was deflected by defender Kipp Keller and fell to Pereyra, who fired immediately. Stuver made a good save to deny the captain but the ball fell to Ruan lurking near the back post and the right back slotted home to make it 2-0 in the 22nd minute.
Right place, right time for Ruan ⚡️ #VamosOrlando | #DaleMiAmor pic.twitter.com/24iiUIrIee
— Orlando City SC (@OrlandoCitySC) May 23, 2022
The Lions were wasteful for the rest of the first half. That started in the 26th minute after Kara stole the ball in the attacking third. He fed Urso on his right and the Bear fired a shot right at Stuver, who made the comfortable save.
The hosts came into the match after that missed opportunity, holding much more possession for the rest of the half. Center back Julio Cascante fired a long-range shot that deflected well over the net. On the ensuing corner kick, a cross found Cascante at the back post. The defender headed the ball down and it bounced over the bar. The play may have been offside but the flag stayed down, so no review was necessary.
Right back Nick Lima cut inside the wing a few minutes later and fired a tight-angle shot that Gallese did well to save in the 35th minute. Three minutes later, Moutinho turned the ball over in his own half and Urruti fired just wide. Gallese was shaken up on the play but continued after receiving treatment from the training staff.
Orlando had some chances to put the game in a chokehold down the stretch. Kara let a shot fly from outside the area in the 43rd minute but Stuver got over and made the save. In stoppage time, the Lions had three more excellent scoring chances and should have scored. The first came on a transition opportunity with Torres and Ruan going 2-v-1. Torres was located centrally but chose to send a pass to Ruan on his left. Ruan not only failed to hold his run and stay onside, but he also missed the wide open net. Moments later, Torres had a chance to redeem himself at the top of the area but turned down a shot again to lay off for Kara who was closed down from behind and never got a shot away.
In the dying seconds, Moutinho crossed after a throw-in in the attacking third that found Urso. The Bear headed on frame and Stuver made a big save. The rebound fell for Urso who then missed everything from just a couple feet from the goal line.
The Lions went to the locker room up 2-0 but Austin was still in the game because of the missed chances.
“I thought today was a game that we could easily score two or three goals more until all this mess happened,” Pareja said.
Austin had a big advantage in first-half possession (66.2%-33.8%), corners (4-1), and passing accuracy (90.4%-75%). But the hosts fired only one more shot (8-7) in the opening period and Orlando got more of its chances on target (6-2).
The Lions again had a chance to put the game away in the 53rd minute. Kara laid off for Perea at the top of the area but the midfielder fired his shot wide of Stuver’s goal. Four minutes later, the Lions created another chance. Pereyra floated in a ball for Kara, who headed down for Urso. The Bear fired his shot immediately but left it too close to the middle. Still, Stuver had to make an outstanding reaction save in the 57th minute to keep the score at 2-0.
57' | SO SO SO CLOSE 💥
0-2 | #ATXvORL pic.twitter.com/WOWtwlgw6A
— Orlando City SC (@OrlandoCitySC) May 23, 2022
Moments later, the entire complexion of the game changed.
Schlegel was booked for a handball just outside the area in the 58th minute. The defender’s arm was out from his body and he was trying to change direction, leaning to block the shot. Although Schlegel was pulling his arm toward his body, and almost got it there, the ball hit it and the Lions couldn’t complain too much about the free kick. However, on the free kick, the delivery by Sebastian Driussi hit Schlegel, who was part of the wall. This time, his arm didn’t appear to be in an unnatural position and he probably knew nothing at all about it. In fact, the shot may have been going wide.
Nevertheless, Dickerson showed Schlegel a second yellow and pointed to the spot. He also booked Orlando’s captain, Pereyra — who suffered four play-breaking fouls in the match, including one in transition, without drawing a yellow card — for dissent. The conversation with Video Assistant Referee Rosendo Mendoza didn’t take very long and Dickerson never went to the monitor himself to take a look.
Driussi took the spot kick right down the middle. Gallese dove to his left but dangled a leg and got a piece of the shot. However, the ball deflected into the roof of the net to pull Austin back to within 2-1 in the 63rd minute.
Sebastián Driussi right down the middle.
His 8th goal of the season cuts the lead in half for @AustinFC. pic.twitter.com/4sGccamVg3
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 23, 2022
Up a man and now down only one goal, Austin pressed like crazy for the equalizer, winning a couple of quick corners. On the second of those, Araujo blocked a cross by Ring, who looked to have clipped the young Uruguayan, who lashed out with his boot in retaliation. There wasn’t much contact in it but Ring went down and rolled around. A conversation ensued between Dickerson and Mendoza and this time Dickerson decided to look at the play on the monitor himself. He determined it was a dangerous play by Araujo and sent off the midfielder, putting Orlando City down to nine men with still 21 minutes remaining in normal time.
And, as I said earlier, we’ve seen this movie before. Despite changing players, coaches, and even owners, this keeps happening.
7 – Orlando City has had multiple players sent off in an @MLS match for the seventh time in club history. No other team has more than four such games since Orlando joined MLS in 2015. Reduced. pic.twitter.com/Xn6SC49dFY
— OptaJack⚽️ (@OptaJack) May 23, 2022
Pareja sent on Tesho Akindele, Kyle Smith, and Jake Mulraney to provide some energy as the shorthanded Lions attempted to see out the match. He withdrew Kara, Pereyra, and Torres.
Mulraney nearly made his presence felt immediately, pressuring the ball high and poking it toward goal, but the shot rolled wide in the 73rd minute.
Two minutes later, Austin Head Coach Josh Wolff sent Djitte for Daniel Pereira, as he no longer had need of a holding midfielder, chasing the game while up two men.
Orlando caught a break when Driussi sent a free header over the bar in the 77th minute, but the Lions’ stayed compact with their nine men and invited crosses rather than giving Austin space to get inside.
Austin tried to get a third Lion sent off when Fagundez tried to hurry Gallese, picking the ball up and walking toward Orlando’s goalkeeper. Jansson stepped between the two players and Fagundez lowered his shoulder and initiated contact. Jansson certainly didn’t get out of his way and lowered his own shoulder at the last second. Fagundez crumpled to the ground to sell a call and did manage to get Dickerson to book Jansson in the 82nd minute.
A minute later, the ball ended up on Fagundez’s foot behind the defense. He beat Gallese with a far-post shot but the ball caromed off of the woodwork and Orlando recovered.
Gallese bought his team some rest with a lengthy delay as the trainers came out to look at him for the second time in the match. But Austin went right back on the attack after that.
A cross in found Djitte unmarked, after the forward had gotten in front of Smith, but his header went over the bar in the 89th minute. A minute after that, Ring had a go from the top of the box and Gallese made a sensational one-armed save to preserve the lead — for the moment anyway.
El Pulpo 🐙@pedrogallese coming up clutch late to hold the @OrlandoCitySC lead. 🐙 pic.twitter.com/fSS1mCN3zz
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 23, 2022
The fourth official signaled seven minutes of injury time, and Pareja tried to waste some of that with a couple of substitutions, sending Sebas Mendez and Michael Halliday on in separate switches for Urso and Ruan.
Dickerson made his final critical mistake in the fifth minute of stoppage time. A ball into the area was headed off of Djitte’s shoulder and out for an apparent goal kick — but not apparent to Dickerson, who signaled for a corner.
Orlando players were incensed and argued vehemently to no avail. Austin played the corner short and sent a back-post cross in that Djitte got a touch on and knocked into the net to level the game at 2-2 in the 95th minute.
Moussa Djitté STOPPAGE TIME EQUALIZER for @AustinFC! 😱 pic.twitter.com/db7iQwff6Q
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) May 23, 2022
“It’s frustrating, very frustrating, the management of that. Those plays,” Pareja said of the officiating. “When it hurt us the most is when they scored a goal, it was it was a corner that was called that…no way. It was our ball and they called a corner and that’s what frustrates us the most. It’s unbelievable the corner that they gave up. It’s unbelievable. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Unacceptable for me.”
Orlando looked to have something going moments later. Akindele went straight up and headed an aerial ball, then appeared to have a chance to get in alone on goal when the defender fell. Dickerson, however, saw some kind of infraction on Akindele and gave Austin the ball back.
The 97th minute came and went, then the 98th, and the 99th, before Dickerson finally blew the full-time whistle. Orlando City was probably fortunate to get any kind of result, given the circumstances, but the Lions could have, and should have, come home with three points.
Austin finished with way more possession (71.4%-28.6%), shots (22-12), corners (10-2), and passing accuracy (90.4%-73.1%). Orlando had more shots on target (7-5).
“It was a tough game, but I think we played very well,” Kara said. “And we did good in the first half and also in the beginning of the second half, but the red cards put us from our way, and it was hard decisions from the referee, but yet we still keep fighting. It’s a point away and we’re looking forward.”
The Lions will have a quick turnaround with a Wednesday night home U.S. Open Cup match-up against Inter Miami CF. Schlegel and Araujo will miss Saturday’s match against FC Dallas.
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DSC_0068.jpg)
Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride vs. Houston Dash: Final Score 1-0 as Pride Set New NWSL Unbeaten Record
-
Orlando City B2 weeks ago
Orlando City B vs. Atlanta United 2: Final Score 4-1 as Young Lions Blast Atlanta
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Player Grades and Man of the Match
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride Focused On More Than Records
-
Orlando Pride6 days ago
Orlando Pride vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Five Takeaways
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Podcasts2 weeks ago
PawedCast Episode 442: Sporting Kansas City Rewind, OCB-Atlanta, Nashville Preview, and More