Opinion
Predicting Orlando City’s May Results
Take a peek into the crystal ball as we predict this month’s fixtures.

After earning four points in the month of April across three matches with a 1-1-1 record, Orlando City looks to calm the storm and gain meaningful results against several squads above them on the table and a few of the Eastern Conference’s best. The Lions will play six matches in the month of May, and before action kicks off later tonight at home against FC Cincinnati, I wanted to put my psychic abilities to the test to try to predict the teams results over a very full month.
Saturday, May 4 — vs. FC Cincinnati
The most important part of a bad loss is not allowing it to beat you twice and that is exactly what the Lions will look to avoid as they attempt to shake off the gut-wrenching, last-minute loss to Toronto FC from the end of April when they host FC Cincinnati. Last year’s Supporters’ Shield winners are riding a two-game winning streak into the match after dispatching the Colorado Rapids 2-1 in their most recent outing. Cincinnati is a different squad than the one that won the shield a year ago, with USMNT striker Brandon Vazquez playing in Mexico and acquisitions like Miles Robinson and DeAndre Yedlin joining the squad this year. Luckily, Orlando’s offense has awakened and in the month of April the Lions scored multiple goals in two out of their three matches. Cincinnati will be without the services of Aaron Boupendza due to a broken jaw and I like this match to be high scoring but level.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 FC Cincinnati.
Saturday, May 11 — at Philadelphia Union
The Union have found themselves in a bit of a post-Concacaf Champions Cup haze, much like Orlando has, with only four points separating the squads through nine matches. Subaru Park, a previously impossible site to win at for road teams, was finally cracked by Orlando City last year, and the Union have already lost in front of their home crowd once this year, thanks to Real Salt Lake. The first road test of the month for the Lions will test the team’s ability to play in a hostile environment and a win could go a long way towards the climb up the table. Orlando will still have to deal with Andre Blake, Jack Elliot, and Daniel Gazdag, but this version of the Union feels slightly less menacing than in years past.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-1 Philadelphia Union.
Wednesday, May 15 — vs. Inter Miami
Lionel Messi and friends on a short week after an away match…it feels like the schedulers are just doing this on purpose at this point, doesn’t it? Orlando will look to avenge its worst outing of the year to date, a 5-0 drubbing that happened in South Florida back on March 2. The key to this match will be managing emotions, as the Lions have shown in the past that they have the right players in place to frustrate Messi, but they also can get caught up in the moment. This one could be a coin flip, as both sides could potentially see heavy rotation and Miami continues to deal with several injuries to its supporting cast. Nonetheless, I think Orlando flips the script in this one and the match against the boys in pink becomes a turning point for the entire season.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 Inter Miami.
Saturday, May 18 — at San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose has had an abysmal start to their year and is currently tied with the New England Revolution for Wooden Spoon darlings, sitting on four points. Still, this will be Orlando’s third match in eight days, a task the team has not had to deal with since balancing both Concacaf and the MLS regular season in March. This feels like the trap game on the schedule to me, coming off of a tough midweek match against intrastate rivals and with the high-scoring juggernauts known as the Columbus Crew coming up the week after. I expect Oscar Pareja to rotate the squad for this one to try to save some miles on the legs, and that will ultimately be the team’s undoing as it has to salvage a draw late against the Quakes.
Prediction: Orlando City 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Saturday, May 25 — vs. Columbus Crew
The Columbus Crew will face off against the Lions in their first matchup of the season late in the month. The reigning MLS Cup holders have been on a heater in both MLS regular-season play and in the Concacaf Champions Cup, and they are now set to face CF Pachuca on June 1 in the final match of the tournament. The timing of that match one week after this could create some interesting storylines, as the Crew — also have a midweek fixture on May 29 — look to stay fresh. As an Orlando fan, I wouldn’t hold my breath, hoping for some obscure names in the starting 11. The Crew are capable of hurting teams in a myriad of ways, and even with a week’s rest and training back in Orlando, I think the squad that knocked OCSC out of the 2023 MLS playoffs will again find a road victory as the Crew look to tune up for their championship final.
Prediction: Orlando City 0-2 Columbus Crew.
Wednesday, May 29 — vs. Chicago Fire FC
The whirlwind month ends in the Windy City, as Orlando travels to Chicago for a midweek fixture to close out the month. Chicago has had an up-and-down start to the season, much like Orlando has, and the Fire currently sit just one point ahead of the Lions on the table. Orlando took both meetings in 2023 by 3-1 final scores. I think after five other matches in the month, chemistry issues should be a thing of the past, and while road points always come as a premium in MLS, I think Orlando will keep its streak against the Fire alive by jumping on top early and then coasting to a win.
Prediction: Orlando City 3-0 Chicago Fire FC.
If things go as I have now spoken them into existence, Orlando will earn 11 points in the month of May. The month will also finish with Orlando closer to the playoff line but still on the outside looking in. My predictions are based on historical results that the squad has put in against these teams, schedule congestion of both the Lions and their opponents, and finally, the true belief that this team has the tools necessary to earn victories at the end of the day. Check back at the end of the month to see just how close I came to predicating the correct results. Vamos Orlando!
Opinion
Pedro Gallese’s Recent Form No Surprise
Pedro Gallese’s recent solid form isn’t anything new, you just need to know where to look.

One of the more frustrating narratives surrounding Orlando City at the beginning of the season was the assertion that goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was playing poorly and was costing the Lions points. The main point of emphasis from the detractors was the Lions’ 4-2 opening day loss to the Philadelphia Union, although he also got a lot of flak for his performances against Toronto FC, and during the 2-1 loss to New York City FC. That criticism has started to get quieter in recent weeks, particularly after he made the bench of the most recent MLS Team of the Matchday, but I don’t think he was playing nearly as poorly as some people made him out to be at the start of the season, and his recent performances haven’t come out of nowhere.
So let’s talk about those two big supposed “black marks” on his 2025 resume. Most of the chatter came from the opening game against the Union, with him coming in for criticism in two instances here, and here. I want to specifically address the mention of Gallese allowing six goals on 2.9 post-shot expected goals. Listen, I don’t actually have a problem with the xG stat the way some people do, and I truly think it can be incredibly useful when used properly in certain contexts. I just don’t think the numbers tell the full story here.
Against the Union, three goals came from inside or on the edge of the six-yard box, and were one-touch finishes. Gallese realistically had no chance on two of them (the first and fourth goals), and while the other one came from an acute angle and was mostly right at him, the ball is still coming so fast and from such a short distance that it still feels a bit nitpicky to place the blame entirely on him. Yes, he arguably could have done better, but there are plenty of goalkeepers in this league that aren’t saving that.
The other goal of the night came from a Rodrigo Schlegel error and a first touch shot from the edge of the box that came as El Pulpo was already moving laterally across his goal to shift with the rest of his defense, only for the shot to be heading for the opposite side of the net. Despite the distance the shot is coming from, that one also feels harsh to blame him for in my book. Again, I love xG when it’s used properly, but I just don’t think this is a fair application, as it doesn’t take into account where Gallese is at the time of the turnover-produced shot — only the shooter’s location. I find it pretty hard to look at each one of those goals and honestly say that he should save them. To me, there’s a big difference between something a goalkeeper could do more to save and something they should do more to save.
The other two goals out of the aforementioned six came against Toronto FC, and honestly it’s hard for me to put a ton of blame on him for either of them. The first came off a corner and was a header from inside the six-yard box, and although he should maybe do better considering the angle of the shot and his placement in the goal, the final shot comes from about three yards away. I’m sorry, but that just requires excellent reaction time, and while it’s the sort of shot that we do see saved in MLS sometimes, I’m not sure it’s one that we should expect to see saved. TFC’s final goal of the night was a great strike from distance in the bottom corner that also came through a few bodies, which meant Gallese didn’t see it until fairly late on. Again, to me this is a shot that he could do more to save, but not one that he should do more to save, and that’s an important distinction.
Honestly, the most justified criticism I’ve seen probably comes from here, when speaking about the 2-1 loss to NYCFC. Gallese gave up a huge rebound for the hosts’ second and eventual game-winning goal. Frankly, it wasn’t great at all and it ended up costing Orlando City a point. That being said, he did still make seven saves in that game and kept the Lions in it with a chance to salvage a late point.
Aside from the error against NYCFC though, El Pulpo has largely been mistake free and pretty blameless for the three goals he’s conceded. One was a penalty kick against the New York Red Bulls, and the second was a one-touch finish from about three yards away which also came against the Red Bulls. Go back and watch the film, and you won’t be shocked to hear that I hold him blameless for both. The goal he surrendered against the LA Galaxy wasn’t great, as Christian Ramirez’s flick isn’t exactly traveling at light speed. But, the shot also goes the opposite way of which Gallese’s momentum is already carrying him, so that’s something to consider. Aside from the rebound against NYCFC, this is the one goal he’s given up in 2025 that I really think he should have done better with.
The Peruvian has gotten a lot of praise (and rightly so) for the three straight clean sheets he’s kept in Orlando’s last three games. He’s made 11 saves during that time and got absolutely peppered late against Montreal, when Orlando went down to 10 men (again!). But he’s been making saves all year long, and the one game he didn’t register any (the season opener), was also a game where you can make a real argument that he couldn’t have done a better job of attempting to stop the ball going in than he already did. His save percentage of 73% is 19th out of 33, which is close to bang average; and his clean sheet percentage of 37.5% is tied for ninth.
Oh, and if we want to bring post-shot expected goals back into this, then let’s look at his post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (PSxG-GA). PSxG-GA uses expected goals to provide a stat that is based on how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot. The number can be either positive or negative, with a positive number suggesting either a better-than-average shot-stopping ability, or a goalkeeper that’s been luckier than most. Gallese’s PSxG-GA of 1.7 is tied for 13th out of 49 goalkeepers, which ain’t half bad, is it? It’s worth mentioning that some of the rankings are skewed by keepers who only spent a small amount of time on the field and either let in a ton of goals or very few, but that’s the funny thing about raw stats — they need context.
At the end of the day, I’m not trying to sit here and say that Gallese has been flawless this season, is completely blameless for each and every one of the goals he’s conceded, and that every ounce of criticism that’s come his way has been unfair. There are absolutely goals that he should have done a better job on, but even at the time they were written, I think some of the assertions that he was a massive weak point for the Lions were overblown and not properly justified. He’s had a few shaky moments, like any keeper, but the defense in front of him wasn’t doing him any favors at times, and he was still regularly making saves to keep Orlando City in games. While it’s nice that he’s finally getting some plaudits, he’s had himself a perfectly fine 2025 season for the most part. You just have to take the time to look.
Opinion
Orlando City’s Start to the Season a Pleasant Surprise So Far
The Lions have started the new season well enough, but we shouldn’t get too carried away just yet.

While Orlando City didn’t have a ton of roster turnover to deal with during the off-season, it was really anybody’s guess as to what sort of start the Lions would make to the 2025 Major League Soccer season. There was obviously the loss of all-time leading goal scorer Facundo Torres to deal with, then Wilder Cartagena was lost for the year in preseason, although the club did a great job in landing Eduard Atuesta to replace him. There were also questions about depth at left back, center back, and central midfield. It was anyone’s guess on how Marco Pasalic would adjust to life in MLS, and there were serious questions about whether the Lions had enough firepower up front with Duncan McGuire unavailable to start the season while he recovered from shoulder surgery.
While the club returned the vast majority of the guys who played key roles in helping reach the Eastern Conference final, on paper, the roster didn’t improve and arguably got weaker, so was it truly realistic to expect the team to go a step farther and make the final this year?
Despite all of those concerns, and despite a confidence-shaking 4-2 opening game loss to the Philadelphia Union, Orlando has largely made a good start to the campaign. The Lions have compiled a respectable 3-2-3 record and have 12 points to show for it, currently sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, six points behind the first-place Columbus Crew.
Even in the two losses, it’s hard to make the argument that OCSC played truly bad games on the whole. Rather, the Lions were undone by moments of bad defending and losses of concentration that led to silly mistakes, particularly against the Union. The shaky defending has certainly been one of the bigger concerns, especially on an Oscar Pareja-coached team, but things have begun to look better after keeping two straight clean sheets.
Ironically, even though the offense seemed to be most people’s biggest concern before the season started, it’s been the part of the team that has consistently functioned at the highest level. Before the two 0-0 draws, Orlando had scored the most goals in the league, and despite being held scoreless twice in a row, they still have the third-most goals scored. Out of OCSC’s six games played with a first choice XI, the Lions have scored more than one goal four times. Even in the games when they haven’t been as prolific, or have largely been on the back foot, the Lions have still managed to carve out a healthy number of chances. While their finishing has let them down at times, they’ve still managed to get several good looks at goal in every game, and that’s half the battle.
All in all, it’s been a perfectly respectable start to the season, and the team honestly has performed higher than my (probably slightly pessimistic) expectations. While the start hasn’t been white hot, it’s been nice to not see the sort of slow start that so often has seemed to plague this club during Pareja’s tenure at the helm.
That being said, I think it’s important to place the beginning of the year in the proper context. It’s worth noting that of the teams that Orlando has played to this point, Philadelphia is the only one currently above the playoff line (although the New York Red Bulls occupy the last play-in spot). The Lions have beaten an LA Galaxy team that is the worst in the West; Toronto FC, which is second from the bottom in the East; and D.C. United, which is third from the bottom in the East. They drew the fifth-place Union on the road, and lost to NYCFC at the baseball stadium. But it has to be said that Orlando has faced a noticeable lack of top shelf opponents so far.
Essentially, Orlando has played three bad teams, two decent ones, and one that started very well but has cooled off in recent weeks (twice). Of course, OCSC can’t do anything about that, but it’s worth asking if the solid start to the season is due to the Lions legitimately being a good team, or if it’s more of a paper tiger situation where they just haven’t had to play many tough opponents yet.
There isn’t really any way of knowing for sure, and there won’t be any hints for awhile. With the way the standings currently look, Orlando won’t face a team above the playoff line until they go up against Charlotte FC on the road on May 14. I don’t bring all of this up to try to dampen the mood, but I just don’t think we have a truly accurate idea of this team’s level yet. Which is fair and totally fine, after all we’re only eight games into the season.
That doesn’t mean that we can’t give OCSC its due for a solid start to the year. It hasn’t been perfect by any means, but the team has done more good than bad, and the Lions’ current place in the standings reflects that. We should still keep things in perspective and resist the urge to dole out too much praise just yet, but we can be happy with what we’ve seen so far.
Opinion
Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason
Let’s break down some good and bad things from this past week of preseason preparations.

It’s Friday once again, and just like that we find ourselves barely over a week away from the start of the 2025 Major League Soccer season. It feels like this off-season has passed by in a blur, and somehow the Lions are already about to play their final preseason match later today. This week was another busy one for Orlando City, so let’s run through some things that I liked from this week and some things that I didn’t.
Likes
Eduard Atuesta Arrives
It took awhile, and the transfer saga had some twists and turns, but Orlando City landed Eduard Atuesta to replace the injured Wilder Cartagena. Given the league’s budget constraints and the fact that he isn’t a Designated Player, Atuesta is about as good a replacement as fans could have hoped for. Not only is he familiar with the league, but he knows what it takes to win here, as he helped LAFC win the Supporters’ Shield and U.S. Open Cup during his time with the California club. Plus, he theoretically offers more going forward than Cartagena typically does, which could add a much-needed extra punch to the Lions’ offense. The structuring of a one-year deal with an additional club option also gives OCSC some flexibility at the end of the season if the Lions decide they want to move on, but if he replicates the form he typically showed at LAFC, then that option year can be triggered.
New Kit Looks Sharp
The club also debuted its new home jersey this week. Dubbed the “Perfect Storm” kit, no two are supposedly alike, as it pays tribute to the intensity and unpredictability of Central Florida’s weather. For my money, it isn’t anything revolutionary, but there’s a lot to like about it. The pattern is interesting without being too overwhelming, the collar adds a pop of welcome gold to the purple and white motif, and the 407 lightning bolt and doppler radar storm patches are nice, vibrant touches. Teams were also permitted to customize the Apple logo on the sleeves this year, and Orlando chose to do so by incorporating the lion’s mane/sun element of the club crest into the logo. My biggest gripe is that the pattern is only on the front of the jersey while the back is plain purple, but overall I really like it.
Dislikes
Thin Cupboards at Striker and Fullback
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Orlando City is still looking short on bodies at striker and fullback. Granted, the striker position will look better once Duncan McGuire returns, but that’s likely to be at least six to eight weeks away. Fullback isn’t quite as dire, as the Lions have Kyle Smith, Mikey Halliday, and Alex Freeman, who are all in contention to come off the bench. There are caveats though, as Halliday has struggled with injuries the last two seasons, and while Freeman was outstanding with Orlando City B last year, he’s almost completely untested at the MLS level. Plus, all three of Smith, Halliday, and Freeman are most comfortable on the right side. You obviously don’t want to take minutes away from the young guys, but I’d feel a lot better if there was a proven vet in the fold.
Final Preseason Match Prices
At the time of writing, the cheapest ticket listed for today’s preseason match against Inter Miami is $49 plus fees. That gets you in the door and up in the 300 level of Raymond James Stadium; any lower down than that and you’re looking at $65 plus fees and higher. It isn’t the most egregious pricing I’ve ever seen, but at the same time, when my season ticket in The Wall breaks down to being about $19 a game, it’s hard to not feel a little put off. I’m not saying that this is the club’s fault as I don’t know who set the pricing for the event, but I just don’t have much interest in paying over $100 for two people to go to a preseason match. It’s a shame, since Ray-J is about a five-minute drive from my house, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.
What stood out to you from this week of Orlando City’s preseason preparations? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!
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