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Resetting Expectations for Orlando City in 2024

What expectations are reasonable for Orlando City fans for the remainder of the 2024 MLS season?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

After another agonizing loss at home a week ago to FC Cincinnati, Orlando City finds itself near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings almost a third of the way through the regular season. For an organization that entered the 2024 Major League Soccer season with lofty expectations, the beginning of the season has fallen significantly short of preseason projections.

For the most part, the facts that supported those preseason projections still mainly hold true. Orlando brought back its core offensive and defensive pieces, made some specific and pointed acquisitions in an attempt to upgrade, and was still managed by a coach who had enjoyed unparalleled success at the helm for the club.

So with all those things holding true, the head scratching question at this point in the season is what has gone wrong? During the first five to six weeks of the season, Orlando had to balance the regular season and Concacaf Champions Cup. Those days are now long past and that excuse for poor on-field performances no longer holds water.

In years past, Orlando has demonstrated its ability to grow into the season and last year’s record-setting team didn’t find its form until after the Leagues Cup competition. Nonetheless, Orlando City fans have not seen a team stumble out of the gate this badly in recent years. It’s time to reset the expectations for the 2024 MLS season and look to see what the team would have to do to turn the season on its head.

In 2023, Orlando City put up a club-record 63 points by season’s end, but if we break down the numbers of the early season, we can see that it might not be time to press the panic button just yet. Through the first 10 matches of 2023, Orlando put up 14 points on a 4-4-2 record with a goal differential of zero. Orlando City currently sits on nine points through its first 10 matches with a 2-5-3 record and a -7 goal differential. On the surface, those numbers seem to be a stark contrast to one another, but when you take into account a five-goal drubbing at Inter Miami, the goal differential that the team is supporting this year is mainly dragged down by one forgettable outing.

Add in a short-handed loss in Atlanta earlier in March, when the team was banged up and missing Wilder Cartagena due to suspension, as well as a heartbreaking last-ditch collapse against Toronto FC two weeks ago, and the picture starts to look less bleak than just what the numbers would suggest. Still, good teams find ways to not drop points at home and to manage matches where there are pieces of the machine missing.

With 24 matches still on the schedule, there is time to climb the table, but with every dropped point or bad loss the clock ticks closer to midnight and the margin for error becomes smaller.

In 2023, Charlotte FC snuck into the playoff wild card position with 43 points on the season, and only 10 wins. It doesn’t seem wildly out of the imagination that Orlando could reach that level this year. Extrapolating the data going back to 2021, with the current MLS playoff qualifications, a team would need an average of 44 points to make the postseason. That equates to Orlando needing 35 points over its final 24 matches — or 1.45 points per match — to reach the wild card round.

A somewhat more lofty goal would be qualifying for the playoffs without the wild card. Again, going back to average the seventh-place spot in the East over the last three years, Orlando would need to reach 48 points this season to avoid a play-in game. That equates to 39 points over the final 24 matches, or 1.62 points per match. In 2023, Orlando managed 49 points over its final 24 matches of the year — that’s 2.04 points per match.

I am not projecting Orlando to go on that same massive (MLS best) type of run over the summer and fall portions of the season, but I do believe that when it comes to expectations on the season there is still hope to be had for Orlando qualifying for the playoffs. The more likely scenario would be for Orlando to end up in the wild card matchup, but with a few extra matches breaking Orlando’s way, it is not a stretch yet to consider the club could climb slightly higher. There is also still the Leagues Cup on the horizon, and regardless of one’s opinion on the competition, a deep, competitive run in that competition could give meaning to the Lions’ 10th anniversary season.


We can likely put to bed the hopes of competing for the Shield or the top spot in the East at this point in the season, given the number of teams above the Lions and the number of matches remaining. However, it is still far too early to give up on the season as a whole. Orlando was five minutes away from going undefeated in the month of April, and there are still meaningful and winnable games on the calendar ahead. My recalibrated expectation of the season is for Orlando to earn a wild card spot, and anything above that would be gravy as far as I am concerned.

What reset expectations do you have for the year? Let us know in the comments below and as always, Vamos Orlando!

Opinion

Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason

Let’s talk through some of the good and bad from this week of the Lions’ preseason preparations.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Just like that, another week of Orlando City’s preseason is in the books. We’ll be staring down the barrel of the season opener before we know it, but let’s make sure we take the time to stop and reflect on some good and some not-so-good things that took place this week.

Likes

Marco Pasalic Arrives

Orlando City is back up to three Designated Players after the club completed the signing of Croatian winger Marco Pasalic. It’s a piece of business that has been rumored for awhile now but took some time to get done and across the line. Between Pasalic and the previous signing of Nicolas Rodriguez, the Lions have got bodies to fill the right wing position. While neither is likely to be able to immediately replace the production of Facundo Torres on their own, they’re both young and will have the chance to grow their games and show what they can do.

Season Ticket Member Match

OCSC will take on CF Montreal Saturday in a preseason scrimmage which is an event exclusive to season ticket holders. This is the sort of thing that I, along with my fellow season ticket members on staff, love to see. An event that rewards you for that membership and does so by giving you an extra peek at the team before everyone else. It might not be some wildly extravagant event, but it doesn’t need to be. The club has formed a habit of designating one of the preseason scrimmages a season-ticket-members-only event, and for my money, it’s been a good call.

Dislikes

Closed Door Scrimmage Radio Silence

This feels a little nitpicky, as closed-door scrimmages are by their very nature, closed door. The whole point of them is to not have a ton of access and insight about what’s going on, and teams will often agree beforehand about what level of information, if any, will make its way out to the public afterwards. We know that Orlando took on Atlanta United in a preseason scrimmage Wednesday, and we know that Alex Freeman put in a goal from a header, thanks to a post from the club on the website formerly known as Twitter, but that’s about it. It feels greedy to ask for information from something we weren’t guaranteed to get any from in the first place, but the brief taste has me wanting more, damnit.

Depth Still a Worry at Several Positions

As stated above, getting Pasalic in the door means that the Lions now have the winger slots fairly well stocked, but there are still other areas on the field that could use some reinforcement. The most crucial of those remains defensive midfielder, and although the rumored arrival of Eduard Atuesta would help considerably, I’m not counting him as a Lion until pen has been put to paper. If he does get signed, that still leaves striker and fullback perilously thin when it comes to guys who are proven MLS-caliber players, and the first game of the season is just shy of two weeks from now. There’s still time to do business, but the clock continues to tick.


What jumped out at you from this week of OCSC’s preseason? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Likes and Dislikes from this Week of Orlando City’s Preseason

Orlando City’s third week of preparation had some good things and some not so good things.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We have another week of Orlando City’s preseason in the books, and while it seems hard to believe, it’s been almost three weeks since the Lions got back in the lab and started preparing for the 2025 campaign. There have been lots of new talking points this week too, and its been a bit of a mixed bag. Let’s have a look at some of the good and bad from this past week.

Likes

Victory (Kind of) vs. Atletico Mineiro

Okay, so it technically wasn’t a victory since the game ended in a scoreless draw. The Lions did get the job done from the penalty spot though, as they won the shootout 6-5 to claim whatever the Inter&Co Trophy is. More important than the result though, was the fact that OCSC played pretty well. Orlando created a good amount of opportunities, but as seems to be the fatal flaw with this team, the finishing was definitely on the rusty side. It was perhaps unlucky that some of the Lions’ best chances fell to youngsters, but the good news is that the chances were being created. It was a positive first showing that the team can hopefully build on.

Back in the U.S. Open Cup

A lot of fans, myself included, had big issues with the Lions not being a participant in the U.S. Open Cup last year. It’s a tournament that is near and dear to a lot of Orlando fans, given that OCSC has won the whole damn thing once, had other special moments like The Running of the Wall, and has generally made decent runs in the competition. It was welcome news to hear that Orlando will be back in the competition this year, along with 15 other MLS teams that will enter the competition during the Round of 32. The tournament has a charm and a special place in my heart, and it’s exactly where the Lions should be.

Two Games, Two Clean Sheets

Nic Josey has gone on the record stating that Orlando City will need strong, steady performances from its defense if the team wants to avoid a slow start to the season like we saw in 2024. It’s only preseason, and we shouldn’t get too carried away, but so far so good, as the Lions have recorded a clean sheet in each of their two preseason games. Whether that will mean a damn thing once the regular season starts is anyone’s guess, but it’s a hell of a lot better than giving up buckets of goals in the preseason.

Dislikes

Wilder Cartagena’s Injury

We still don’t have official confirmation on the injury that Wilder Cartagena suffered during Saturday’s preseason match, but all the reports point to an Achilles Tendon injury, with ESPN’s Diego Montalvan going as far to say that he’ll be undergoing surgery. If that proves to be the case then it’s a doomsday scenario indeed for the Lions, as Cartagena could miss anywhere from six months to a whole year. He’s proven to be a vital part of what makes Orlando City tick, and replacing him is going to be far from an easy task.

Summer Fixture Frenzy

Along with the U.S. Open Cup, the Lions will once again be participating in Leagues Cup, and that’s presented them with a hellish slate of matches to finish out the summer. In a stretch from mid-July to mid-August OCSC will play a positively hellish eight games in 29 days, with that number potentially rising even higher if the club goes deep in the Open Cup (unless the two competitions decide to play nice and work with each other on scheduling). Not to mention that six of those eight games will take place at home in the punishing Florida heat and humidity. Either some guys are going to need to get signed, the kids are going to get some good experience, or something is going to give. Speaking of…

The Continued Wait for Reinforcements

Orlando City has made a couple signings in the last two weeks, with the most notable of those being winger Nicolas Rodriguez, with goalkeeper Carlos Mercado getting re-signed on Thursday. That’s a start, but Cartagena needs to be replaced, Jack Lynn’s retirement and Duncan McGuire’s shoulder injury mean the striker corps is dangerously thin, and the team could use help with depth at midfield and fullback. That’s a hell of a lot of business that needs to get done, and there hasn’t been much in the way of substantive chatter in the transfer rumor mill lately. The sooner signings are made, the more time they have to get integrated with their new surroundings before the season starts, but time is fast running out for that to happen.


There you have it folks. Life is full of peaks and valleys, and this week for Orlando City was a good reflection of that. What things jumped out to you this week, and what are you hoping to see as we move into the fourth week of preseason? Be sure to have your say down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Orlando City’s Lack of Off-Season Signings Starting to Become a Concern

The Lions’ roster hasn’t gotten any bigger in the last few weeks, so it’s understandable if fans are getting a bit antsy.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Three weeks ago I wrote that there was no reason to panic about Orlando City’s lack of off-season signings. It was early in January, and the club typically does a lot of its business throughout the first month of the year. Since then, the club signed Nicolas Rodriguez, but the Lions also traded Mason Stajduhar, and forward Jack Lynn retired. That is more subtraction than addition for a team looking to make it to the next level. Is it now time to panic?

The departure of Stajduhar hits Orlando City supporters in the feels given how long he was with the club, but one may assume the coaches have seen enough from Javier Otero to be confident in his ability to back up Pedro Gallese. The club still needs to bring in another keeper [Editor’s note: this story was written prior to the club signing Carlos Mercado this morning], but Stajduhar’s departure isn’t as big of a problem as it might first seem.

We don’t know how long Duncan McGuire will be unavailable once the season starts. Even if he’s back sooner than expected, Orlando City will still be lacking at the striker position. Ramiro Enrique has proven he can be a starter, but with Jack Lynn’s departure, there isn’t anyone behind him. While Luis Muriel is technically a striker, he tends to play further back in a facilitator role rather than as an actual No. 9. We haven’t seen any transfer moves for a new striker.

The Lions got a big influx of cash, thanks to the Facundo Torres deal. Replacing the goal production of Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer is a priority. So far, the club has brought in Rodriguez as an MLS U22 Initiative player. Despite the similarities between the two, Rodriguez is not a replacement for Torres. It is unrealistic to expect the young man to score double-digit goals his first year in MLS.

I’m not even worried about the attacking midfield. As I mentioned above, Muriel is best as a facilitator, Martin Ojeda is now wearing the No. 10 jersey, and Ivan Angulo can play on either side. It’s Torres’ goal contributions I’m worried about missing. Orlando City needs to replace that production sooner rather than later or another slow start seems certain.

I’m not going to address the Wilder Cartagena injury until we know more, but that is also potentially very bad news. That brings us to today. The team is already deep into its preseason trip to Mexico. This is the trip that in the past has been the time when the team truly bonds. Any players brought in at this point will obviously miss that valuable time.

Additionally, unless a signing is someone who has already played in MLS — which is incredibly rare for this front office — it is going to take them time to adapt to the league as well as the club and their new teammates. That brings us back to the real potential for another slow start to the season.

When you have roster turnover, the idea is to bring in players that are better than the players that departed. We know that the ownership is serious about winning. The 2022 Open Cup victory and the Orlando Pride’s two 2024 trophies are a testament to that. Now, it’s time to see that commitment with some substantial signings for City. In some ways, I feel the club has left it a little late, but I’ll take what I can get at this point.

I’m not saying it’s time to panic — though I won’t tell you not to do so — but I’m definitely getting a bit concerned. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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