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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

Orlando City

Orlando City vs New England: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to score some goals and secure a victory against New England?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City might have the scoring woes in MLS matches as of late, but the Lions broke out against the Tampa Bay Rowdies Wednesday night in the U.S. Open Cup match. Of course, the Rowdies are not a very good team this year and are not a top flight team, so take it all with a grain of salt. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points at home against the Revolution?

Stop Gil/Campana

New England has scored eight goals this season. Seven of those goals have come from Carles Gil (5) and Leonardo Campana (2). Gil has also contributed one of New England’s four assists on the season. The vast majority of the Revolution’s offense goes through these two players, meaning stopping the duo is priority number one.

I fully expect Oscar Pareja to field his first-team defense, including a back line of Alex Freeman, Rodrigo Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo. Orlando City will also need whoever is playing in the defensive midfield to be the first line of defense. Pedro Gallese cannot be expected to have eight saves every match. The defense needs to step up.

Streak vs. Streak

Orlando City is on an eight-match unbeaten streak. New England is on a four-match winning streak in league play and five in all competitions. One of these streaks will end Saturday night. The Revolution have scored six goals in the last four MLS matches with at least one goal in each match without conceding a goal during the streak. The Lions have only scored three goals in the last five MLS matches with all three coming in one match against Atlanta United. Orlando City has shut out five straight MLS opponents and six consecutive in all competitions.

Orlando City has given away too many points during the unbeaten run. The Lions have missed Eduard Atuesta’s ability to create opportunities for his teammates to score. I’m hoping he will be available, but if not, Pareja will need to figure a better adjustment than he has in previous matches.

No More Nil

Orlando City may be on an eight-match unbeaten streak, but the offense has been absent in four of those matches. In those 0-0 draws, Orlando City took 53 shots with only 12 on target (23% rate). Contrast that with the four matches in which they scored, when Orlando City took 68 shots with 25 on target (37% rate). The Lions will need as many chances as possible given New England has only allowed seven goals so far this season. This is a defensively solid team.

Marco Pasalic did not play in the Open Cup victory over the Tampa Bay Rowdies, meaning he will be well rested and ready to start scoring goals again. He seemed to be dialing in during the Chicago match but he was taken off before he could convert. I want him to pick up where he left off, so he and many others can score goals against the Revolution. Hopefully, the goals scored against the Rowdies will kickstart the offense.


That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/8/25

Orlando City steamrolls the Tampa Bay Rowdies in I-4 Derby, Orlando Pride aim to bounce back, U.S. Open Cup results, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s not often we get to celebrate an Orlando City victory in the middle of the week these days, but hopefully it’s a habit we get used to. The Lions took care of business in my neck of the woods, and it’s given some nice optimism to finish this week strongly. Let’s dive into the big win and more in today’s links!

Orlando City Trounces Tampa Bay Rowdies

Take a bow, Gustavo Caraballo! The 16-year-old was the star of the show in Orlando City’s dominant 5-0 U.S. Open Cup win against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, scoring twice to jumpstart Orlando’s attack and making history along the way. There’s plenty of scoring to enjoy, so be sure to check out our full recap!

Hopefully this game was a nice shot in the arm for Orlando’s offense and something to build on in league play. It’s always nice to take down the Rowdies and the Lions are now the last Floridian team standing in the tournament. They’ll host Nashville SC in the round of 16 later this month in what should be a good game in the City Beautiful.

Orlando Pride Aim to Bounce Back in North Carolina

After a 1-0 loss on the road to the Portland Thorns, the Orlando Pride will look to return to their winning ways when they face the North Carolina Courage on Saturday. It’s going to be another tough environment for the Pride to play in, although the Courage have lost two of their three home games so far this season. Pride defender Emily Sams spoke on the team’s mentality heading into this match and how the team can raise its level after a disappointing loss in Portland.

U.S. Open Cup Round of 32 Wraps Up

MLS teams mostly cruised in the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 32, but it was still an exciting round of soccer filled with drama. In a vintage “cupset,” the Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat New York City FC 1-0 thanks to a goal in stoppage time from Orlando native Beto Ydrach. Indy Eleven nearly took down the Philadelphia Union, but the MLS side converted all five kicks in the penalty shootout to advance after a 1-1 draw.

The New England Revolution escaped Pawtucket with a 2-1 road win against Rhode Island FC, with 17-year-old Cristiano Oliveira scoring a late winner. Minnesota United squeezed past Louisville City 1-0, the Chicago Fire put Detroit City to the sword in a 4-0 win, and FC Dallas won 3-1 against USL League One side AV Alta FC.

UEFA Champions League Final Set

Paris Saint-Germain did everything it needed to and more at home against Arsenal, winning 2-1 to advance to the UEFA Champions League final. Great saves by Gianluigi Donnarumma and goals from Fabian Ruiz and Achraf Hakimi propelled PSG to victory, with Bukayo Saka providing Arsenal’s only goal of the two-leg series. PSG will take on Inter Milan in the final on May 31 and it should be an interesting matchup at Allianz Arena to close out the tournament. Will PSG lift its first Champions League trophy only a year after Kylian Mbappe left the club, or will Inter come out on top after finishing as runner-up in 2023? I can’t wait to find out.

Free Kicks

  • Congratulations to United States Women’s National Team star Mallory Swanson and her husband Dansby Swanson, as the couple announced that they’re expecting their first child!
  • Racing Louisville announced that goalkeeper Katie Lund and midfielder Maddie Pokorny will both miss the remainder of the season due to hip injuries. Jordyn Bloomer, who had five saves in Friday’s win over the Houston Dash, will serve as the team’s goalkeeper in Lund’s stead.
  • The Columbus Crew signed Daniel Gazdag to a contract extension through 2027, with a club option for 2028 as well.
  • Arsene Wenger proposed a change to the offside rule so that attacking players are onside so long as any part of their body is lined up with the last defender. We’ll see if anything comes of this, but it could lead to more goals in the future.
  • Here’s what to watch for in the second legs of the Europa League semifinals. Manchester United will host Athletic Club with a three-goal lead in aggregate, while Tottenham will aim to defend its two-goal advantage in Norway against a Bodo/Glimt side that has key players returning from suspension.
  • Tottenham will be without James Maddison, who is out for the rest of the season after a knee injury sustained in the first leg against Bodo/Glimt.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, U.S. Open Cup: Final Score 5-0 as Lions Roar Past Rowdies

The Lions destroyed their I-4 Derby rivals at Al Lang Stadium, advancing to the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The Lions found their scoring boots tonight at Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg and spent much of the 90 minutes applying those boots to the backsides of the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Gustavo Caraballo’s brace led Orlando City, with Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson each adding a goal in a comprehensive road victory.

On the other end, Orlando allowed the host Rowdies very little, keeping the team’s sixth consecutive clean sheet in all competitions, although this one was backstopped by Javier Otero rather than Pedro Gallese, who sat on the substitutes’ bench.

“I think scoring today was so healthy for us,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after his team’s five-goal outburst. “The first objective was trying to keep the pace that we had defensively on being solid, but at the same time, and just move on to that team that is scoring again. So we’re happy in that part, and in between the boxes, we played a good game. We saw the youngsters playing, some of the other players that were not regularly in the lineup, so it was very complete.”

Pareja’s lineup was heavily rotated from the side that played Saturday in Chicago, with Otero starting in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Alex Freeman. Cesar Araujo and Thorhallsson started in central midfield behind an attacking line of Nico Rodriguez, Martin Ojeda, and Caraballo, with Enrique up top.

It took Orlando City a while to get going, but once the Lions saw the ball in the net once, they looked dangerous for the remainder of the opening half.

Not much happened early for either side, other than some rough challenges by the Rowdies that were (eventually) punished by a single booking, but one in the opening moments to knock Freeman down while trying to get forward in transition would normally draw a yellow card.

Orlando’s first shot came in the ninth minute off a corner kick. The ball fell for Caraballo in the box and his shot hit a defender on the ground. Orlando players appealed for a handball, and it appeared the defender moved his hand on the ground up into the ball’s path, but referee Natalie Simon saw nothing wrong with it.

In the 13th minute, on what was probably the third bookable offense of the game by Tampa Bay, Simon finally showed a yellow card to Daniel Crisostomo for a hard challenge on Ojeda. Moments later, Araujo got his foot stomped on after releasing a pass but no card was given on a nasty challenge.

Enrique got into a good spot in the box in the 23rd minute and fired a shot that defender Forrest Lasso did well to block out for a corner kick. Lasso then cleared the ensuing set piece entry ball. Manuel Arteaga tried to catch Otero off his line from midfield after the clearance but the young goalkeeper wasn’t in danger of being beaten even if the attempt hadn’t been well off target.

Enrique’s flicked effort in the 26th minute was blocked by the defense, and an Ojeda attempt from a tight angle on the left in the 29th minute was well saved by goalkeeper Nicolas Campisi.

Tampa Bay got a rare shot in the 33rd minute from outside the area, but Schlegel blocked it at the top of the box. The ball sailed high into the air and served as catching practice for Otero.

Orlando City broke through a minute later. Ojeda took a good entry ball from Santos down the left and sent a low pass through the box. Caraballo got onto it and blasted it just under the bar to make it 1-0. It was the 16-year-old’s first goal with the first team, and he became the youngest player to score a first-team goal in a competitive match for Orlando City.

“It means a lot. I was able to rise to the opportunity that the coaching staff and my team gave me, and I was able to score in front of all the friends that came a long way to see us play and see us getting that very much important win to send us off to the next round,” Caraballo said.

“Congratulations to Gustavo, to the coaches in the academy, to the program that we have,” Pareja said. “I think that they have done a tremendous job on developing these kids and putting him in the first team for us is a privilege. And not just that, but to see those performances in a kid that is so young, still.”

Caraballo doubled the lead two minutes later. A takeaway in the attacking third ended up on Thorhallsson’s foot. The Icelandic midfielder cut across the box left to right. Just when it seemed he would fire a shot toward goal, he sent a diagonal pass to his right for Caraballo to run onto. The young midfielder slotted his shot just inside the left post to make it 2-0 in the 36th minute.

“I saw that there was space, that the left back wasn’t there, and if I attacked that space, I would be able to get the ball,” Caraballo said. “Thankfully, Dagur was able to see me and (it was) just a normal finish that we practice every day. And I’m just glad I was able to finish it.”

The Rowdies tried to pull one back in the 40th minute. Otero went up to catch a cross from his left and was barrelled over by Arteaga. Otero spilled the ball into his own net, but the whistle had gone for the obvious foul. A minute later, the Rowdies appealed for a penalty when a player went down in the box under contact, but Simon again wasn’t buying it.

Enrique made it 3-0 in the 42nd minute. Araujo sent a beautiful ball over the top that fell perfectly for Santos’ well-timed run. The Brazilian fullback slid a centering pass in front at the top of the six and Enrique flicked it through Campisi and in for the Lions’ third.

The last look of the first half was another good one for Orlando. Santos was sent down the left by Thorhallsson and was in a good position to shoot. The fullback sent a cannon shot over the bar from the left in stoppage time.

The Lions took their three-goal lead into the break. Orlando held the halftime advantage in possession (57.9%-42.1%), shots (9-3), shots on target (4-0), and corners (4-1).

“We needed to be patient just to open the first goal, or to get that first goal, and we scored in the right time, I think,” Pareja said of the team’s final 15 minutes of the half — between the hydration break and halftime. “I think in that moment we pushed the pedal and the other two goals came. But if there is one thing I said about what changed, it was that we moved the ball faster, and the dynamic that the boys had to connect that helped us just to land in the box with more numbers and with more options to score.”

With the three-goal lead, Pareja withdrew Ojeda and Freeman from the lineup before the restart, sending on Duncan McGuire and Colin Guske.

The second half, perhaps as a result of Orlando’s subs and a couple by the Rowdies, was disjointed just after the restart. Tampa Bay was able to stay on the ball a bit more.

Still, the first good look of the second half came in the 57th minute and was created by the Lions. Caraballo fizzed a good cross into the box that found Enrique. The Argentine sent a flicked header on goal, but Campisi made a good save.

The Lions added a fourth two minutes later anyway. McGuire headed down a ball from the back to Rodriguez on the right. The Colombian sent a good return ball over the top for McGuire, who used his strength to hold off his defender before blasting his first goal of the season past Campisi to make it 4-0 in the 59th minute. The pass was Rodriguez’s first assist as a Lion.

“Duncan has been in that long recovery process that he had on his shoulder, and just seeing him now getting his rhythm and his best version and scoring is so healthy for our team,” Pareja said. “And Ramiro similar, too.”

Tampa Bay started to create some half-chances past the hour mark, shortly after both teams had made more substitutions. Orlando withdrew Araujo and Schlegel, replacing them with Zakaria Taifi and David Brekalo.

The first decent look of the half for the Rowdies came in the 67th minute. Woobens Pacius received the ball at the top right corner of the Orlando box and made a good turn, firing a shot for the near post. Otero had the post covered and made a comfortable save.

After the second-half hydration break, the Rowdies put a couple of decent shots on goal but couldn’t beat Otero. The first of those came in the 78th minute from Alexander Rodriguez from the top of the box on the right. The shot had a lot of power on it, but Otero fought it off. A minute later, Smith and Santos were caught up the field, allowing Ollie Bassett to sneak in down the right. He took a pass and blasted a shot that Otero saved.

The Lions had a golden opportunity to add a fifth goal in the 86th minute. Colin Guske intercepted a pass near the top of his own penalty area and dribbled forward in transition. He did well to pick out Enrique making a run slightly right of center. The Argentine carried the ball into the box with McGuire on his left all alone. Enrique slowed and cut back to his left, firing a shot wide of the left post.

Thorhallsson capped the scoring in the 90th minute, getting onto a pass from late substitute Ivan Angulo in the semicircle just outside Tampa Bay’s penalty area and blasting a shot just inside the left post to make it 5-0. It gave Thorhallsson a goal to go with his earlier assist.

After just one minute of stoppage time, Simon blew the full-time whistle on a dominant win over a struggling USL Championship side. The first 30 minutes were tightly contested, but the rest of the match was owned by Orlando City.

In the end, Orlando held the advantage in possession (57.2%-42.8%), shots (15-7), shots on target (7-3), corners (6-2), and passing accuracy (91.8%-89.4%).

“We’re really excited now to put our mind into the next one against New England at home, but today it was a game that we needed,” Pareja said.

The Lions improved to 8-0-0 in all competitions against Tampa Bay.


Orlando City moves on to the Round of 16 to host Nashville SC with a date and time to be announced, but the window for that round is May 20 and 21. The Lions return to action at home Saturday against the New England Revolution.

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