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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

Orlando City

Evaluating How Orlando City May Fill Its Open Designated Player Spot

An analysis of the history of the ages of Orlando City’s Designated Players (DP) and an evaluation of how Orlando City may fill their open DP spot.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Sometimes in order to admit to yourself that something is true you have to say the words out loud, or in the case of a website contributor, you have to write the words out, and so therefore I must disappointedly say the following: Facundo Torres will not play for Orlando City in 2025.

Sigh.

I guess there is a chance, however slight, that he could transfer back from Palmeiras, but as a mathematician, I would not advise anyone to place any bets on seeing Torres playing for the Lions this season. I would also advise you not to place any bets in general and to remember the quote from the legend Danny Ocean that “the house always wins, you play long enough and you never change the stakes and the house takes you.”

You did not come here for gambling advice, so we will dispense with that part of the quote, but I want to go a little deeper on the concept of changing the stakes. During the last three seasons, Orlando City has steadily improved from losing in the conference quarterfinals to losing in the conference semifinals to losing in the conference final. The Lions played in the Concacaf Champions Cup in 2023 and 2024 and won the U.S. Open Cup in 2022. As I wrote last week, Orlando is now one of leading soccer cities in the country, and that is because of the accomplishments of both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride.

Orlando City Head Coach Óscar Pareja has led the Lions to the playoffs in each of the past five seasons, and in doing so has raised the expectations for the club higher, as while the Lions are not considered one of the league’s glamor teams by MLS leadership, the performance on the field says that they should be. Their 71 MLS regular-season wins during this decade ranks second only to LAFC’s 75.

ClubMLS Regular-Season Wins: 2020-2025
LAFC75
Orlando City71
Philadelphia Union71
Seattle Sounders70
Columbus Crew70

This brings us back to Torres and the decision that Orlando City’s leadership will need to make about how to replace him. His departure opens up a Designated Player spot, allowing the Lions free rein to bring in anyone they want, since there are no restrictions on salary. The question that I am sure that the front office is grappling with, however, is whether to use that spot on the 2025 version of Torres, a young rising star who they hope to sell in a few years for a profit, or go with an established player who is ready to come in now but may not be someone that the club can profit off of in the future.

The history of Orlando City and Designated Players is more the latter than the former, despite the club-record sale of Torres a few weeks ago. The club has had 15 Designated Players and 33 seasons from those players during its 10 seasons in MLS, and using the age of every player as of Feb. 1 during the year they were a Designated Player, this is how Orlando City has deployed that designation:

Age RangeNumber of Seasons% of Seasons
19-20412.1%
21-23515.2%
24-26412.1%
27-29824.2%
30+1236.4%

Slightly more than 60% of those player-seasons have been played by players 27 years of age or older, headlined by Kaká, Mauricio Pereyra, and Nani, but at the same time, more than 25% of the seasons were by players in the “we project them to be a young rising star” age group of 19-23. Torres clearly showed that he was, but the other young Designated Players — Bryan Róchez, Carlos Rivas, and Josué Colmán — did not produce on the field or generate a major financial return when they departed the club. Rivas, at least, is enduring, as every time a shot is skied high over the net at home games, you can always count on hearing someone in the crowd shout out his name.

During the last three seasons, the club has skewed younger with regard to Designated Players, with the average ages being 26 in 2022 [Pereyra (31), Ercan Kara (26), Torres (21)]; 24 in 2023 [Kara (27), Martin Ojeda (24), Torres (22)]; and 27 in 2024 [Luis Muriel (32), Ojeda (25), Torres (23)]. Torres’ departure means that remaining Designated Players Muriel (33) and Ojeda (26) will average out at 29.5 years old, with Muriel’s window to generate a future transfer fee of any significance nearly shut and Ojeda’s closing, unless he makes a leap in 2025. Both players contributed to the club’s success on the field in 2024, but the front office is always trying to balance the business and the team’s performance, and with this third open Designated Player spot those in charge of personnel will show their hand on where they believe they need to focus.

The hard part for the front office is that, as of today, the team is bringing back every key player except for Torres from a team that has used a pretty consistent set of players for the past two seasons. This group is very familiar with Pareja’s style of play and expectations, and nine of the returning players played more than 3,600 (out of a possible 6,120) MLS regular-season minutes during the last two seasons.

This team is built to win now, and while the Lions have the personnel to replace Torres with existing players (move Ojeda to right wing while starting Nico Lodeiro or Muriel in the middle, starting Lodeiro or Muriel on the wing, start Duncan McGuire at striker and move Ramiro Enrique to the wing, etc.), with an open Designated Player spot and Torres’ transfer fee money sitting in an Inter&Co digital vault, I think the team should be looking for someone to come in directly into the starting 11 and aggressively make a play to win the title in 2025, joining the battle-hardened group of returning players, many of whom are in their prime right now.

There are rumors that a signing is imminent for a left-footed winger who likes to play on the right side of the field, but it would be using an MLS U22 Initiative spot and not a Designated Player spot. Rumo(u)rs are second-hand news and may end up only being dreams (some of you will see the chain connecting what I did there, others will tell me to go my own way…away), but those currently reporting on Orlando City’s negotiations for this winger, Fabrizio Romano and Tom Bogert, are well sourced, increasing the likelihood that the club is closing in on bringing in a player who is similar to the 2022 version of Torres — young, skilled, and someone who could bring the club a profit in the future.

This does not preclude the team from looking for a Designated Player who is also a wing player on the right side of the field, but it changes the calculus (and as all of you certainly remember from math class, calculus is all about change) for what the team may want to do with its third Designated Player spot, probably making a little more likely that that spot would be used on a more established (read: older) player — reports have already indicated a bid was made to Liga MX side Club America, which was rejected, for 26-year-old winger Alex Zendejas.

Orlando City, like most MLS clubs, has rarely used a Designated Player spot on a defender. Yoshimar Yotún is the closest case, but while he played left back for Peru and other clubs, for Orlando City he played primarily in the midfield. The team could look for an upgrade on the left wing, which could also involve moving Angulo to the right wing or dropping him into a competition for a right- or left-back spot, as a player with a similar profile to former right back Ruan. McGuire will be out for a few months to start the season, and so the club could bring in an elite striker to complement Enrique to fill the 90 minutes up top. OCSC could also go find a central attacking midfield Designated Player and move Ojeda back out to the wing.

Or…City could do none of these and take an existing player who makes more than the Designated Player amount ($683,750) and turn him into a Designated Player, saving salary cap money. It is not as exciting to do something like this, but one of the benefits of being a good team with youth and depth is that there are already players ready to take on some of the minutes made available by Torres’ departure. It is not always beneficial to add players just because you can, as players want to play and team chemistry can be just as important as the total top end talent on a roster.

Decisions like these in a league with a salary cap can make or break a team, especially a team with so many players returning from a successful season the year prior. Should the Lions acquire one player to slot right into Torres’ spot, and leave everyone else as is? Do they actually need a big shake-up and change at multiple positions, as while they were successful, they struggled to score late in the season, and came up short on the ultimate goal? I am excited by all of the possibilities, look forward to seeing the moves the team makes, and am thinking about how the Lions will line up in the season opener on Feb. 22.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Previewing Luis Muriel’s Second Year in Purple

Orlando City needs more production from its Colombian striker in 2025, so what’s the best way to get it?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The 2025 season will be Luis Muriel’s second as an Orlando City player following a 2024 campaign that wasn’t bad but was uneven and marked by potential that ultimately went unfulfilled. With the Colombian striker still occupying a Designated Player slot, there’s a lot of questions about how he’s going to fit into the team.

With him occupying a precious DP slot and commanding the highest salary on the team by a comfortable margin, it’s essential that the Lions get maximum output from him on the field. What’s the best way to do that, though? With the departure of Facundo Torres and Muriel getting a full off-season and preseason under his belt, there are a few different ways to achieve that goal.

Striker

The obvious answer is the reason that he was brought to the City Beautiful in the first place — to play him at striker. Duncan McGuire likely won’t be available until sometime in April, meaning that Muriel will be duking it out in preseason with Ramrio Enrique (and to a lesser extent, Jack Lynn) for the right to start as the tip of Orlando City’s proverbial spear. He got some time there last year in the first few months of the season, but ultimately his production, or lack thereof, opened the door for McGuire, and later Enrique, to supplant him.

The most straightforward way to get him in the team is to get him scoring in the volume that he’s shown himself to be capable of. It wouldn’t require any alterations to the formation or moving players around to areas where they might not be comfortable. Orlando could try to go big for a winger with proven goal-scoring threat to help replace the Facundo Torres-sized hole on the right wing, Ivan Angulo can stay out left, Martin Ojeda retains his place at the 10, and things keep ticking along.

The big question is whether he can find the back of the net consistently enough to justify going this route, particularly when McGuire and Enrique have proven themselves to be capable of providing solid scoring output. However, if he shows better than Enrique and Lynn in preseason, this is probably the most likely route.

Winger

Another solution, and probably the one that would be second easiest, would be to deploy him at the winger spot vacated by the now-departed Torres. This would allow Enrique and McGuire to compete for the no.9 slot, while filling Torres’ place with someone who is capable of creating and producing goals for others at the same, if not higher, level, and it wouldn’t require any formation or positional shifts.

A downside is that the right-footed Muriel wouldn’t be inverting the way that Torres did, which would tweak some of the team’s tactics and patterns of play in the final third. Additionally, it would be gambling on Muriel improving his goal-scoring numbers despite being shifted out wide and presumably not having as many looks at goal.

In this scenario, the Lions likely aren’t going out and adding a third Designated Player, or if they are, it’s probably an attempt to upgrade over Angulo — something which just doesn’t seem super likely to me, given how ever-present he’s been in the lineup since joining the team. I also don’t know if I can see Luiz Muzzi and Co. standing pat with the current state of a roster that couldn’t win it all and then lost its best player.

No. 10

A different route would be to trot him out at the no.10 position, where he often found himself deployed when coming on as a substitute during the second half of the year. The advantages of this solution are that it would allow the Colombian to utilize his considerable passing range and ability on the ball while minimizing his need to contribute large amounts of goals. On the downside, it would require shifting Ojeda out of the central position that he occupied to such great effect during the second half of the 2024 season. While Muriel has played well in this position, I can’t see the decision-makers being willing to gamble on Ojeda regressing if moved out wide again.

Shadow Striker/Roving Playmaker

The final, and most intriguing (and complex) of the options would be to deploy him as a shadow striker/roaming playmaker as part of a front two. Muriel drops into the hole behind the striker and moves around, finding space just behind his fellow forward, popping up wherever the spaces are and making it difficult for teams to zero in on patterns of play.

Again, it would allow him to use his excellent passing and dribbling ability to create scoring chances for McGuire/Enrique, while still getting him some looks at goal. It’s also a position that he’s played at various times throughout his career, including last year, when we saw him partnered with McGuire in either a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2. The two played well together during those games, and showed signs of a flourishing partnership that ultimately wasn’t pursued further as the team got more bodies healthy and Ojeda began to shine as the central player in the three-man attacking midfield.

The biggest problem would be finding a formation that gets Orlando’s best players on the field in their best positions. A 4-4-2 would allow a midfield of Ojeda, Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Cesar Araujo, but Ojeda would need to be out wide and we’ve already covered why that’s an issue. A 3-5-2 would also allow for those guys to be on the field, but then Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Rafael Santos would likely be sacrificed, and Cartagena would move to center back while Nico Lodeiro slotted into the midfield in his place. OCSC is better when Cartagena and Araujo are partnering in the midfield, and I love having Santos’ crossing ability and DDT’s versatility on the field. For me, it would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

An interesting solution could be trying a 4-2-2-2, with Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel/David Brekalo, and Thorhallson at the back, Araujo and Cartagena as the defensive midfielders, Angulo and Ojeda as the attacking midfielders, and Enrique/McGuire and Muriel up top, with Muriel operating as the shadow striker. To get the necessary width in attack, one of the fullbacks (presumably DDT) could invert into the midfield when in possession, and one of the defensive mids (likely Cartagena) would drift out wide while Ojeda plays centrally, where he operates best. The biggest issues here are that it would necessitate a lot of tactical variation from what the team is accustomed to, requires Thorhallsson to run his guts out, and is susceptible to getting torched on the counterattack. There’s a world where it could work, but I wouldn’t expect to see it.


At the end of the day, everyone’s lives are made easier if having a full off-season and preseason under his belt helps the Colombian DP find his shooting boots and he hits the ground running as the striker in Oscar Pareja’s preferred 4-2-3-1. Orlando adds firepower at right wing, Ojeda stays in the middle, and Muriel does what he was primarily signed to do — score goals. If that doesn’t happen, there are still ways to try to get him involved, but each solution comes with its own unique set of advantages and disadvantages to navigate. Either way, Muriel’s fit during the 2025 season is an intriguing storyline to watch as we build towards the start of the new campaign. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/10/25

Orlando City reportedly nears signing Nicolas Rodriguez, Orlando Pride re-sign Marta, Americans abroad this weekend, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I’m already pretty much over this cold weather. While it was a nice change of pace, I’ve never been a huge fan of shivering in my car while waiting for the heat to get going. Thankfully, it looks like some warmer weather is coming this weekend before temperatures dip again next week. But enough about the weather, let’s get to today’s links!

Orlando City Linked With Nicolas Rodriguez

According to Fabrizio Romano, Orlando City is close to signing Colombian winger Nicolas Rodriguez from Fortaleza in Colombia’s top flight.

The 20-year-old would bring the club some needed attacking power and Orlando has open U22 Initiative slots to make it happen. The Lions have yet to make much noise this off-season beyond transferring Facundo Torres to Palmeiras, so hopefully signing Rodriguez kicks off the excitement ahead of the 2025 season. Another report has the transfer fee coming in around $2 million, with Fortaleza keeping a 30% sell-on fee if he’s sold in the future.

Marta Re-Signs With the Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride have re-signed Marta to a new contract that will keep her in the City Beautiful through 2026. Whether or not Marta would return was the biggest question mark surrounding the club after her contract expired following a historic season that included winning both the NWSL Shield and the NWSL Championship. Marta is one of the best attacking midfielders in the league and was a finalist for both the NWSL MVP and NWSL Midfielder of the Year awards last year. Enjoy how Marta revealed the big news through the club’s social media. She definitely had me in the first half.

Keeping Up With the Americans Abroad

Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath had a stellar game in Cardiff City’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United in the FA Cup, making seven saves in the shutout. It was his first start for the club since August and he could get the nod in Cardiff’s next FA Cup match in February. Lindsey Horan had an assist in Lyon’s 2-0 road win over Dijon, while Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty started in Celtic’s 2-0 win against Dundee United.

As for upcoming action, Joe Scally will have a chance to impress when Borussia Mönchengladbach hosts Bayern Munich on Saturday. Elsewhere in the Bundesliga, Giovanni Reyna and Borussia Dortmund will take on Bayer Leverkusen today. Serie A should feature the usual suspects on Saturday, with Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan playing Cagliari and Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus facing off against Torino. We also might get to see Matt Turner in goal when Crystal Palace plays Stockport County in the FA Cup.

FA Cup Third Round Storylines

There’s plenty of more FA Cup soccer all over England this weekend to check out. While we were robbed from seeing Ashley Young and his son Tyler Young play against each other in Everton’s 2-0 win against Peterborough United, there are still many storylines in the third round. The heavyweight matchup is between Arsenal and Manchester United on Sunday. While it may be too much to say some of the English Premier League’s bigger clubs are on upset alert this weekend, Tottenham’s road game against Tamworth and Liverpool’s match with Accrington Stanley could prove interesting. Manchester City is set to take on a Salford City side owned by several former Manchester United players as well.

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That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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