Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again
A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).
One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.
Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.
Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com, in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.
What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.
This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.
Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:
At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.
We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:
- Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
- Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
- Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
- Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.
Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).
The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.
The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.
I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.
Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.
Orlando City dropped the newest home kit yesterday. As such, I thought it appropriate to rank all of the MLS-era home kits for the Lions to see how the new “Perfect Storm” kit stacks up against those from the past. I will be the first to admit I’m no fashion guru, but I do know what I like.
We all get to have our own opinions on this type of thing, but since I’m writing the article, I get final say. Let’s rank Orlando City’s home kits.
Sixth Place
The 2019-2020 “Bring the Noise” kit starts things off in sixth place. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this kit, but it is pretty plain for it’s moniker. The shoulder stripes don’t stand out because they are black, the pattern is…fine, and it’s the first to sport the new Orlando Health logo. Putting it in sixth doesn’t mean I don’t like it or that there’s something wrong about it. It just means I like the other kits better.
Fifth Place
The 2015-2016 inaugural home kit — known as the “City Kit” — comes in at the fifth spot on the list. Consideration was given for it being the original kit of the MLS era, though that isn’t all it has going for it. The old school Orlando Health logo with the swirly circle,and the gold overlap collar contrasted with the white Adidas stripes…love it. You never forget your first, and this kit is no exception.
Fourth Place
The new 2025-2026 “Perfect Storm” debuts in fourth place on our list. To be fair, I have not yet seen it in person, but I’m comfortable with the assessment. There are some things to like on the kit. I like the idea of each kit being unique because the pattern is random. That means your kit is really your kit. There’s a throwback element with the gold on the collar while using white trim for the logos and the shoulder stripes. The pattern is a little busy for me, but I get what they are going for with it. Not a bad addition for anyone’s collection.
Third Place
The 2021-2022 “Thick N Thin” kit has a lot going for it at the third spot on the list. I like the dark purple at the top, and the two-button collar is very cool. I like the consistency of the white trim around the sleeves with the white logos and shoulder stripes. There’s also the fact that this is the kit Orlando City wore when the Lions lifted the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup trophy. Throw in a cowboy hat and it’s a classic.
Second Place
The 2023-2024 “The Wall” kit is absolutely outstanding. The bricks in the wall pattern representing the supporters’ section at Inter&Co Stadium (Exploria at the time) is a great tribute. The all-gold trim pieces on the shoulder stripes, the collar, the Adidas logo, and the sleeves look amazing. This kit is refined with a royal look. Like Kyle Smith, I give this kit two thumbs up. That’s why it’s number two on our list.
First Place
The 2017-2018 home kit was so cool that they didn’t even need to give it a nickname. Whenever I want to let someone know which one I’m talking about I say it’s the one with the collar. This was the first kit to use gold on the shoulder stripes. The heathered material is different than any other kit, and the fact that it has a collar means you can wear it to work without getting in trouble.
It was also the first kit in the — at that time — Orlando City Stadium which is why it has the longitude and latitude coordinates for the stadium on the sleeve. This is one of the best kits ever produced for any club in my opinion. That is why it tops off our list in the number one spot.
There you have it. In case you’re wondering I will most likely be getting the new Perfect Storm kit for myself. As for the rankings, that’s just one man’s opinion on the topic, and I’d love to hear how you rank them in the comments below. For now, you can select the spot where you’d place the Perfect Storm kit in the poll below. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 2/13/25
Orlando City unveils 2025 primary kit, Orlando Pride sign two players to short-term contracts, FC Dallas signs Luciano Acosta, and more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s been a fairly busy week for me, but it’s at least made the week fly by as we get another day closer to the return of Orlando soccer. In the meantime, I’m knocking out some more books for my reading goal this year and have a bachelor party of all things to attend this Valentine’s Day weekend. But for now, let’s dive into today’s links!
Meet Orlando City’s Perfect Storm Kit
We now know the new primary jersey Orlando City will wear for the 2025 season, as the club revealed the “Perfect Storm” kit. The most notable feature is that each jersey will have a unique design of the purple storm pattern meant to reflect Central Florida weather. It also features Orlando’s area code on the back of the neck arranged to look like a lightning bolt, which is a nice touch. Ultimately, I think I like the previous The Wall kit a bit more, but I do like the colors and how easily you can tell the difference between each jersey. It’s available now online and you can also head to Inter&Co Stadium to pick it up in person.
Orlando Pride Sign Two Non-Roster Invitees
The Orlando Pride signed midfielder Aryssa Mahrt and goalkeeper DeAira Jackson to short-term contracts ahead of the 2025 season. Both were non-roster invitees at Orlando’s preseason camp this year and fill a couple of active roster spots for the time being. Mahrt joins the Pride after recording 21 goals and 15 assists across 62 matches at the University of Wisconsin, leading the Badgers with 10 goals last year. As for Jackson, she had nine shutouts last year with Grand Canyon University and was named 2024 WAC Goalkeeper of the Year. She had a total of 16 clean sheets during her two seasons at Grand Canyon, breaking the school record.
Luciano Acosta Heads to FC Dallas
Midfielder Luciano Acosta was officially traded by FC Cincinnati to FC Dallas in exchange for just $5 million and up to another $1 million if performance-based metrics are reached. Cincinnati will also retain a percentage if Acosta is traded within MLS for cash in the future. The 30-year-old is one of the best playmakers in the league and had 14 goals and 19 assists last season. He now joins a Dallas team that missed the playoffs last year and bid farewell to Jesus Ferreira, Alan Velasco, and Paul Arriola in the time since.
As for Cincinnati, it will reportedly replace Acosta with Portland Timbers star Evander for $12 million, along with add-ons. Evander’s 19 assists last season was tied with Acosta for the league’s most, and he had a whopping 15 goals as well. The dominos continue to fall from there, as the Timbers are reportedly close to signing David da Costa from RC Lens for a $6 million transfer fee. Gosh, if only Orlando City had a major sale this winter so that it could get in on this kind of spending as well.
More MLS 2025 Kits Revealed
Orlando City isn’t the only club showcasing its new kit this week, as several clubs across the league shared new looks. My favorite of the bunch belongs to Portland, which celebrated its 50th anniversary with a green and gold design using a tree ring pattern to literally show the club’s age. I also like the Columbus Crew’s oozing “Goosebumps” kit designed by Columbus native R.L. Stine that has a slime pattern when under UV light.
The New England Revolution’s new secondary kit looks nice but feels like something plucked from Nigeria’s cutting room floor. LAFC’s 2025 kit is as blindingly white and gold as expected, and FC Dallas’ lacks red for something called “The Inferno” kit, apart from a hellish version of its badge that I do like. While the shades of pink in Inter Miami’s new primary reminds me of someone mixing red into a load of white laundry, my least favorite kit so far belongs to the Philadelphia Union. The yellow meant to represent electricity just isn’t bold enough in my opinion. I’ve seen some people say it looks like streaks of urine in snow and it’s difficult to see anything else after that.
Free Kicks
- Retired defensive midfielders Dax McCarty and Osvaldo Alonso are two of the five new faces joining the MLS Season Pass broadcasting team for 2025. Former Lion Miguel Gallardo will remain part of the Spanish language coverage as an analyst.
- The LA Galaxy officially acquired Christian Ramirez from the Crew in exchange for up to $500,000 in General Allocation Money. The 33-year-old has scored eight goals in the past two seasons.
- Christian Pulisic stated he’s focused on his play on the field amid reports that AC Milan is nearing a contract extension with him through 2028 that would include a hefty pay raise.
- In the UEFA Champions League, Club Brugge beat Atalanta 2-1, thanks to a penalty kick in stoppage time; Benfica won 1-0 against Monaco; Bayern Munich beat Celtic 2-1; and Feyenoord managed to win 1-0 over AC Milan in the rain in Rotterdam.
- Here’s what to watch for in today’s slate of Europa League action. The first leg between Porto and Roma should be a close affair in Portugal, while Galatasaray will be without suspended forward Victor Osimhen when it takes on AZ Alkmaar.
- Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom revealed that alcohol will not be sold at the 2034 World Cup, including at hotels.
- The final Merseyside derby match at Goodison Park was a memorable one for the home fans, as Everton’s James Tarkowski scored a late equalizer to draw 2-2 against Liverpool. After the final whistle, four people were sent off, including Liverpool manager Arne Slot.
- The U-17 USMNT took care of St. Kitts & Nevis 7-0 and has now outscored its opposition 29-0 through two matches. The Baby Nats will face Cuba Saturday. The U.S. would win the group with a draw or better.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Thursday and rest of your week!
Orlando City
Orlando City Unveils New Perfect Storm Kit Ahead of 2025 MLS Season
The Lions’ new kits are meant to represent the uniqueness and intensity of the Central Florida weather.
Orlando City unveiled the club’s new home “Perfect Storm” kit today. The new home purple kit is meant to evoke the intensity of the Central Florida weather, and features a lightning bolt (called a “thunderbolt” by the club) made out of the Orlando area code, 407, on the back of the neck and a jocktag with a doppler radar storm icon. Per the club, no two kits will have the exact same pattern.
The Perfect Storm kit will be available on MLSStore.com and on OCMobileShop.com, with pick-up at The Den at Inter&Co Stadium starting Thursday during regular business hours.
“This kit is a tribute to our fans who have supported us day in and day out, through everything, rain or shine,” said Orlando City Chief Marketing Officer Pedro Araujo in a club press release. “It is also inspired by our players’ ability to thrive in adverse weather conditions, and a reminder that Inter&Co Stadium is one of the toughest environments in Major League Soccer for visiting teams to compete in.”
The Perfect Storm Kit will be first available to fans at the club’s official jersey launch tonight at 6 p.m. at Canvas (1401 Florida Mall Ave.). Fans can purchase the new shirt and have it customized. The first 200 fans in attendance to purchase the new kit will receive an exclusive CITYiD patch
The Lions will first wear the new kit at their home opener against the Philadelphia Union on Saturday, Feb. 22.
Here are some shots of the new kit:
Orlando Pride Extend Emily Sams’ Contract through 2027
Orlando City B Signs Bernardo Rhein, Justin Ellis to MLS NEXT Pro Deals
Ranking Orlando City’s Home Kits
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