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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/2/25

Big names leave Toronto FC, hot conditions in Club World Cup match, FIFPRO makes ACL recommendations, and more.

Published

19 hours ago

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July 2, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Wednesday, everyone. It already feels like it’s been a long week, as I just got home from being out of town traveling up and down the East Coast for the last few days. The soccer world hasn’t stopped in my absence though, and as usual we have a lot to cover today. Let’s wish a happy birthday to OCB defender Tahir Reid-Brown, and jump into today’s links!

Italians Leave Toronto FC

It’s the end of an era at Toronto FC, as the club has parted ways with both Federico Bernardeschi, and Lorenzo Insigne. The Reds used both of their two buyouts of guaranteed contracts this season in order to get the transactions done, so the club was pretty keen to get them out the door. It’s hard to blame the Reds, as Insigne was the second-highest paid player in the league while Bernardeschi was the fifth highest. They didn’t have much to show for it though, as Bernardeschi had 26 goals and 22 assists in 99 games across all competitions, while Insigne had 19 goals and 17 assists in 76 matches. TFC never made the playoffs while the duo was on the team, and the decision to turn the page is an understandable one.

Difficult Conditions in Juventus vs. Real Madrid

The Club World Cup Round of 16 concluded on Tuesday, with Real Madrid knocking off Juventus 1-0 in afternoon match. Kylian Mbappe made his tournament debut for Madrid as a substitute, but it was Gonzalo Garcia’s 54th-minute goal that made the difference in the game. Juve boss Igor Tudor highlighted the difficult conditions in Miami, saying in his postgame press conference that 10 different players asked to come off the field during the game. Tudor didn’t outright blame the loss on the high heat and humidity during the 3 p.m. kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium, but noted that they were among several factors that made the game a very difficult one for his side.

FIFPRO Makes Recommendations to Curb ACL Tears

Amid a rash of ACL injuries to women’s soccer players, FIFPRO has made some recommendations to cut down on the rate at which they occur. Rather than focusing on things that can’t be controlled, the federation has suggested modifying the calendar, number of games, and the playing surfaces. FIFPRO member Alex Culvin is calling for minimum standards in the women’s game relating to pitch conditions and access to physiotherapists. More research around risk factors is also necessary, as is implementing preventative exercises at the youth levels of the game.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

Summer transfer business is in full swing, so let’s catch up on some of the hot rumors currently flying around. First up, Arsenal is said to be in the final stages of signing Viktor Gyokeres to a five-year deal. Staying in the Premier League, Manchester United is reportedly interested in signing midfielder Fabian Ruiz from Paris Saint-Germain. Juventus reportedly is close to signing Jonathan David after his contract with Lille expired. Finally, Bayern Munich is reportedly preparing a formal offer for Liverpool for Colombian winger Luis Diaz.

Free Kicks

Apparently a non -#usmnt drone has crashed the training session. US Soccer staff aiming to identify it.

— Jeff Carlisle (@jeffreycarlisle.bsky.social) 2025-07-01T17:25:12.954Z

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/1/25

Pride signings, OCB draws, both U.S. national teams in action Wednesday, and more.

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2 days ago

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July 1, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to July, Mane Landers. If you’re like me, you balanced the excitement and dread of the USMNT advancing on penalty kicks the other night. It was one thing watching Guatemala take out Canada but a whole other level of heart palpitating stress while watching the U.S. avoid a similar fate. There’s no time to relax with plenty of soccer to watch as we head towards Independence Day. Before we get to the links, please join us in wishing Orlando Pride/USWNT defender Emily Sams and OCB defender Clovis Archange each a happy birthday.

Orlando Pride Signings

The Orlando Pride announced a pair of transactions Monday. Midfielder Viviana Villacorta and the club have agreed to exercise the midfielder’s mutual option for the 2026 season. Villacorta was the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NWSL Draft. The Pride also signed midfielder Ally Lemos to a new contract through the 2027 season with a mutual option for 2028. The Pride selected Lemos with the No. 9 overall pick of the 2024 NWSL Draft. Orlando continues to lock down current players ahead of time. Now, we wait to see if any new players will be added.

OCB Earns a Point on the Road

Orlando City B played Philadelphia Union II to a 1-1 draw in a Monday afternoon match. Unfortunately, the Young Lions lost the end-of-regulation shootout 4-2 and did not get the additional point. Gustavo Caraballo assisted Jackson Platts on the early goal for OCB. Philadelphia equalized early in the second half. Carlos Mercado was the difference maker in the match, recording a career-high 12 saves.

USMNT’s Gold Cup Run Continues vs. Guatemala

The USMNT will face Guatemala Wednesday night in a 2025 Gold Cup semifinal match. The U.S. advanced past Costa Rica on penalties thanks to a stellar performance from goalkeeper Matt Freese. Guatemala stunned Canada with a second-half equalizer and advanced on penalty kicks. Guatemala has been the overachieving underdog of the competition so far. This will be the USMNT’s 17th Gold Cup semifinal appearance.

USWNT Hosts Canada

The USWNT will host Canada in a third friendly of this international window Wednesday at Washington, D.C.’s Audi Field. The U.S. is coming off two 4-0 victories over the Republic of Ireland. Canada should prove a tougher opponent for Emma Hayes’ squad. There is a possibility that the match will feature two Orlando Pride players — Emily Sams for the U.S. and Zara Chavoshi for Canada. Kerry Abello has returned to her club team after picking up a knock.

Free Kicks

Sources: Bayer Leverkusen are finalizing a deal to sign USMNT attacker Malik Tillman from PSV.Deal in region of $40m.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2025-06-30T20:36:24.359Z
  • Former Orlando Pride midfielder Erika Tymrak has retired from professional soccer.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for Orlando City’s match against Charlotte FC this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Striker Ramiro Enrique Hindered By Inconsistency

Ramiro Enrique’s inconsistent play raises the question if he can be the go-to striker Orlando City desperately needs.

Published

3 days ago

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June 30, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City’s strike force has been inconsistent this season, to say the least. At times, the players up top have looked like they can score at will, but at other times, they struggle on chances they should finish. Nobody displays that inconsistency better than Ramiro Enrique.

Joining the Lions in 2023, Enrique has primarily served in a backup role for Ercan Kara, Duncan McGuire, and Luis Muriel. The young Argentine has had the occasional start, but ultimately ends up back on the bench, entering later in games. 

Orlando City acquired Muriel prior to the 2024 season when it appeared McGuire was on his way to Blackburn Rovers. However, the English side’s struggle with simple paperwork resulted in the Omaha, NE, native returning to Orlando. It left Oscar Pareja with some decisions to make.

The Lions often employ a 4-4-2 formation with a single striker and Muriel playing underneath. As a result, the three forwards all saw plenty of action in 2024.  Enrique started 12 games, Muriel 14, and McGuire was listed 18 times in the starting lineup. However, Enrique’s strong form near the end of the season saw him start 11 of the final 12 regular-season games and all five playoff contests.

Aiding Enrique’s playing time were injuries to McGuire. The 6-foot-1 striker suffered a shoulder injury on Nov. 9 in an MLS Cup playoff game against Charlotte FC, guaranteeing a starting spot for Enrique. As McGuire continued to work towards his return at the start of the year, Enrique took his place.

At times, it looks like Enrique is more than a substitute for Muriel or McGuire and can be the go-to scorer the Lions have struggled to find since Daryl Dike. But his inconsistency eventually returns, making it hard for Pareja to depend on the young attacker. That issue has been most noticeable during the two most recent games.

Putting shots on frame has been a struggle for the Lions this year, but it wasn’t for Enrique Wednesday night in St. Louis. After the Lions lost back-to-back games against Atlanta United and the Chicago Fire, Enrique was inserted into the starting lineup for Muriel. He took advantage of his opportunity in St. Louis, placing three of his five shots on target. He scored a first-half brace, giving his team a commanding three-goal lead after just 22 minutes.

In the seventh minute, Martin Ojeda sent a strong ball across the box that Enrique ran onto with perfect timing. He didn’t try to do too much, tapping the ball in on the slide. After Marco Pasalic made it 2-0, a bad turnover in the 22nd minute gave the striker a second chance. He was in on goal and made no mistake, slamming the ball past Roman Burki to make it 3-0.

The performance had many wondering if the team had finally found the striker it had been looking for since McGuire went down. But it wasn’t to be as Enrique reverted to his inconsistency with a poor performance in Saturday night’s 2-1 loss to FC Cincinnati.

The striker was unable to put any of his three shots on target, but that’s only part of the story. It’s how he failed to score that was the bigger problem.

In the 51st minute, Pasalic forced Brian Anunga into a turnover just outside the Cincinnati box. Enrique made a run toward the near post and Pasalic found him. The striker should’ve had no problem putting the shot on target, but he hit the ball with his left foot as his right came through, knocking the ball out of play for a goal kick.

He had a chance to redeem himself in second-half stoppage time with the Lions looking for an equalizer. Rafael Santos played a beautiful ball to the near post that only required a slight touch to beat Roman Celentano. However, the striker sent his header well wide, squandering a golden opportunity to claim a point.

These two games show the inconsistency that has plagued Enrique throughout his Orlando City career. He’ll look to be in excellent form and ready to claim the starting striker role, only to follow it up with a poor performance. It’s something that has held the Argentine back since his arrival and continues to do so this year.

Even more troublesome, it leaves Orlando City without a dependable striker. McGuire can’t seem to get over his shoulder problems, and he is currently on the sidelines again while he recovers from surgery on the opposite shoulder to the one he hurt in last year’s playoffs. Muriel and Ojeda often partner each other up top, but both are more comfortable in midfield positions.

Injuries and players in uncomfortable positions provide Enrique with the perfect situation. Consistent scoring would assure Pareja that he can depend on the 24-year-old to produce the goals his team has been searching for. But the striker can’t seem to put it together over the span of multiple games.

He’ll have plenty of opportunities in the near future to win the position he undoubtedly craves. McGuire’s absence due to injury and Muriel’s preference to play underneath means Enrique will likely get more playing time. However, he needs to show more consistency if he wants to hold onto the starting spot long-term.

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