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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

Published

9 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Orlando City at New York Red Bulls: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-2 road draw against the New York Red Bulls.

Published

16 hours ago

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March 16, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City traveled to New Jersey to take on the New York Red Bulls. Who cares if names and places don’t match? With the Lions coming off a loss to New York City FC the week before, getting points on the road was crucial. Orlando City earned a point away from home thanks to a 2-2 draw, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t frustrating at times. Here are my five takeaways from the match.

Designated Players Score Again

The 2025 theme of Orlando City’s Designated Players scoring continued in this match. Martin Ojeda got things going early with an absolute beauty of a goal. He brought the ball up the left himself, lifted his head as he approached the box, and let one rip into the upper right corner. A perfect way to start the match.

Marco Pasalic also scored a stunner. Orlando City’s newest DP made a perfectly timed run to get on the end of a long pass from Eduard Atuesta. Once he had the ball, he easily beat Carlos Coronel to give the Lions the lead once more. That is three goals for Pasalic in four matches. If he, Ojeda, and Luis Muriel can continue to provide goal contributions at this rate, good things will happen.

Hot-Headed Jansson

It wasn’t a great night for Orlando City’s captain. Robin Jansson was frustrated, angry, and I assume yelling at the refs in Swedish except for the one time he got booked for dissent. That time was probably in English. In the 72nd minute, Jansson had the ball taken off his foot at midfield, and if not for an excellent save by Pedro Gallese, the Lions would have headed home with a loss.

The Beefy Swede took some chances that perhaps he didn’t need to take. Usually it is Rodrigo Schlegel that is the hot head, but against the Red Bulls it was Jansson seeing red. Of course, the worst thing that happened — the penalty — was certainly debatable.

Penalty Kills

Jansson was called for a penalty in the 26th minute. He was running alongside Eric Choupo-Moting as the ball came in from the right. Jansson stuck his foot out at the ball, but unfortunately Choupo-Moting got his foot in front of Jansson’s and drew a foul that wasn’t initially called. The video assistant referee had referee Armando Villarreal go to the monitor. Villarreal overturned his inital no-call and awarded the penalty.

This was the type of foul that could go either way. It wasn’t initially called, and was iffy at best, in my opinion. If the roles were reversed, it was the type of call that Orlando City doesn’t get, but the Red Bulls did. On the resulting penalty kick, Pedro Gallese guessed correctly, but Choupo-Moting put it low and hard into the bottom left corner to equalize the match. If not for that call, Orlando City may have won.

A Start and a Return

If you thought it wasn’t great when Wilder Cartagena went out for the season, then Cesar Araujo being held out as a precautionary measure didn’t make things any easier. Fortunately, Araujo isn’t out for the season, but Orlando City still missed his presence in this match. Since Araujo didn’t make the trip, rookie Joran Gerbet got his first MLS start. Honestly, Gerbet played well. Both he and Atuesta were harassed and fouled regularly by the Red Bulls, especially in the first half. Gerbet’s passing was good (96.4%), and I think he acquitted himself well in his first start.

We also saw the return of Duncan McGuire, not just to the bench but to the field, as the striker came on in the 87th minute. He almost gave the Lions a late lead, but one shot was blocked, and his pass to Rafael Santos for a chance by the left back was also saved. Regardless, it’s good to have Big Dunc back. I’m certain he’ll need more time to get match fit, but his return is a big boost to Orlando City’s attack.

Mistakes Continue to Haunt

Once again there were way too many giveaways by Orlando City to give the opposition easy opportunities. The second goal saw Dennis Gjengaar unmarked on the near post for an easy goal. That type of defensive mistake has happened far too often this season, and it bit Orlando City again against the Red Bulls.

On the other end, Orlando City took 15 shots, put seven on target, and put two in the back of the goal. That’s a lot of missed opportunities. To be fair, Carlos Coronel was very good on the night, but I still think either Ramiro Enrique or McGuire should have scored the winning goal.

That is what I saw in Orlando City’s 2-2 draw against the New York Red Bulls. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls: Final Score 2-2 as Lions Keep Conceding Goals

A controversial penalty decision helped the Red Bulls come from behind twice to split the points with the Lions.

Published

1 day ago

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March 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continued to suffer the critical defensive lapses that have cost the team goals during the first month of the 2025 season in a controversial 2-2 draw against the New York Red Bulls at Sports Illustrated Stadium. Despite leading twice, Orlando City (1-2-1, 4 points) dropped points again.

Stunning strikes by Martin Ojeda and Marco Pasalic were canceled out by equalizers from Eric Choupa-Moting — controversially, from the penalty spot — and Dennis Gjengaar, and Carlos Coronel stopped every good look in the second half that the Lions put on target, allowing New York (1-1-2, 5 points) to take a point from a trailing position.

“A competitive game, and I thought our boys today implemented another gear on the challenges that we had — not just defensively but offensively,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “I thought the amount of opportunities that we created to score kept us optimistic.”

Pareja had some wrinkles to his starting lineup this week, with Cesar Araujo unavailable after experiencing muscle tightness late in the week. Joran Gerbet made his first professional start alongside Eduard Atuesta in central midfield. Additionally, Kyle Smith replaced Rafael Santos at left back. Pedro Gallese started in goal behind a back line of Smith, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Alex Freeman. Gerbet and Atuesta were in central midfield behind the usual attacking line of Ivan Angulo, Ojeda, and Pasalic. Luis Muriel started for the second straight game. Pareja got some bodies back on his bench, however, with Duncan McGuire available for the first time, along with David Brekalo. Zakaria Taifi was on the bench after signing a short-term contract, and Gustavo Caraballo — after signing a Homegrown Player deal Friday through 2027 — was also on the bench.

Orlando’s game plan coming out was to drop Angulo to left wingback when the hosts had possession, which the Lions were happy to concede. The Red Bulls found some width early to create some issues, but other than that, Pareja’s plan worked beautifully in the first half. The Lions were able to create on the break.

The first half chance of the match fell for Muriel from a severe angle on the right. Looking to catch Coronel by surprise, he smashed a shot in the third minute but couldn’t keep it on frame.

New York’s first opportunity came three minutes later, as Peter Stroud found space outside the area with Orlando’s lines dropping too deeply. Stroud fired a shot that Schlegel came out to block. Two minutes later, Gallese was forced to make a huge early save when Gjengaar was slipped down the right. The Peruvian came off his line and made himself big to deny a point-blank chance.

Orlando broke the scoreless tie in the 18th minute when Muriel flicked a ball on the left for Ojeda to pick up. The Argentine broke to the top of the area, looking for a teammate, but the defense had his options well covered. Ojeda fired a shot instead, blasting it into the upper right corner to make it 1-0.

“The guys who need to put the team on their shoulders seem like are doing the job,” Pareja said. “Now, we need to maintain it and even get better.”

Choupa-Moting fired well over the bar from outside the area in the 21st minute, but moments later he initiated contact with Jansson in the box that was not called a foul during play. Video assistant referee Daniel Radford sent match referee Armando Villarreal to the monitor for a look. Although Choupa-Moting stuck his foot out in front of Jansson as he was striding forward, Villarreal gave a penalty that’s seldom called, handing the hosts an easy scoring opportunity from the penalty spot.

Gallese guessed correctly, but Choupa-Moting’s shot was low and just inside the post, making it 1-1 in the 29th minute. It was an unfortunate decision for Orlando, and it would have been an unnecessary one had the Lions’ captain not cheated forward when he didn’t need to, allowing Choupa-Moting to get into the box.

“The boys were very annoyed by the decision,” Pareja said. “I have to see it better. The common word in the locker room was that it was a very unfair call, but nothing that we can do now.”

The Lions went back in front 10 minutes later, but it was a goal that saw almost no celebration. Atuesta sent a long ball over the top to Pasalic, who looked a mile offside, but the flag stayed down. Pasalic smashed a left-footed shot past Coronel to make it 2-1. Replays showed Raheem Edwards kept the Croatian onside, so the goal counted and Orlando led again in the 39th minute.

“Offensively, I see much bravery and a much functional team,” Pareja said. “I like the way we’re attacking. I like the way we are proposing the game.”

Pasalic was nearly in again in the 45th minute, but this time the flag came up and it didn’t matter anyway, as he lost his footing at the top of the area.

Because Villarreal gave seven minutes of stoppage time, the final chances of the half fell for the Red Bulls. A header by Choupa-Moting forced a good save from Gallese on a shot that bounced in front. The Red Bulls had a couple opportunities to do something with the ensuing corner but couldn’t pay it off before the halftime whistle.

New York had the halftime advantage in possession (55%-45%), shots (7-4), shots on target (3-2), and passing accuracy (85.7%-83.5%). Each team won one corner in the opening period.

Orlando coughed up the lead moments after the break, and it was from yet another defensive breakdown in this early 2025 season. New York attacked down the wide left and a ball into the box was turned home by Gjengaar, who was left alone in front of the net. Schlegel looked for an attacker and didn’t see one, but then was caught ball watching as Gjengaar cut diagonally away from Jansson to occupy the space behind Schlegel, where he was left alone. Stroud got outside of Freeman on the switch and sent in a cross. Smith dropped deep enough on the left to keep Gjengaar onside, allowing him to tie the game in the 47th minute with a redirection off his thigh.

“We know about our errors defensively, and this is not just defenders, but this is the whole group just conceding goals that we have to erase from our performances,” Pareja said.

“We need to figure it out, because we need to do a better job right after halftime, because we have been conceding goals like right after, and we need to raise up the energy,” said Gerbet, who played a strong match in his first start against. We need to do a better job to come back with the same energy as we had in the first half to avoid those types of goals.”

That early second-half goal set off a nervy spell for the Lions, who again were giving too much width to the Red Bulls. In addition to width, Orlando City was conceding extra chances. Angulo’s poor clearance set up Edwards right in front in the 52nd minute, but the shot went wide of the left post.

Angulo again gave the ball away in his own end in the 53rd minute, and that allowed Dylan Nealis a chance to fire a shot at the top of the area. Gallese did well to get down and make the save, that bounced to Edwards. The New York player couldn’t dig it out of his feet and his chance for an easy put-back evaporated.

The Lions settled down a bit after that, creating a couple of chances. Pasalic shook free on the left and fired just wide of the right post in the 61st minute. Two minutes later, Muriel tried a long-range effort that forced a diving save from Coronel. Pasalic created another chance in the 65th minute by forcing a great diving stop by Coronel to keep the match tied.

The best chance in that Orlando flurry came in the 67th minute. Smith got to the end line and sent a good pass into the area. Ojeda dug it out of traffic and fired from close range but hit his curling shot wide of the right post.

New York should have taken the lead in the 72nd minute. With Orlando enjoying a spell of possession, Jansson was dispossessed at the halfway line, allowing Gjengaar to break in alone on goal. Rather than risk a pass to Choupa-Moting with Schlegel tracking back, Gjengaar fired a shot, trying to beat the onrushing Gallese. The Peruvian did well to get a slight touch to the shot, forcing it to skip just wide of the left post.

“I felt it more like individual moments every time,” Gerbet said about the club’s defensive struggles. “So, I felt like we just need to train more, be more focused, even like at halftime or before, be willing as a team to talk, to communicate, to be able to be all together, to raise up the energy — if we see someone is a little bit down, to push him a little bit. And I felt like those little tips can help us moving forward.”

Orlando went back on the front foot after that with some late chances to win the match. Pasalic held the ball too long on a promising transition break, rather than shifting the ball right to Freeman. Felipe Carballo was able to make him pay by tackling it away from him, although the Croatian felt he was fouled on the play. He came off limping when substituted off moments later, but Pareja indicated in his postgame comments that he wasn’t concerned with an injury to Pasalic.

The Lions gave up the ball too easily a few more times after that opportunity on the break, with Gjengaar hitting the left post with a curling effort from the right side, nearly making Orlando pay in the 85th minute.

McGuire subbed on for his first appearance of the season moments later and his impact was noticeable, despite no changes to the scoreline. He quickly won a corner in the 90th minute and fellow substitute David Brekalo got under his header on the ensuing set piece, sending it over the goal.

Ramiro Enrique had a golden opportunity for a winner in the third minute of injury time when McGuire laid off a pass for the Argentine. His shot was a decent one, but placed a bit too close to Coronel, who made an excellent diving save. A minute later, Coronel blocked a shot by Rafael Santos pinching in from the left, and McGuire’s follow-up effort was blocked by the defense in front.

“I was so happy seeing (McGuire), because he has been training normal, but I know the competition in the games is different,” Pareja said about the striker’s return. “I was urgent to see him giving us those glimpses of the Duncan that we all know. And when I saw him today competing, jumping with no fear, winning those duels, and getting in behind, that made us so happy. I’m very convinced that Duncan will be back in his best level soon and all what he brings is just good news for our offensive side.”

The final chance of the game fell to Orlando in the sixth minute of stoppage time when Santos won a corner kick. The service found its way to a wide-open Schlegel high in the box on the right. The defender took a shot but sent it wide with just about the last kick of the game.

New York finished with the advantage in possession (55.7%-44.3%) and passing accuracy (83.1%-80.7%), but aside from the first 15 minutes of the second half and a few random giveaways, Orlando controlled the match, finishing level on shots (15-15) and finishing with the advantage in shots on target (7-6) and corners (6-2).

Ultimately, the continued momentary lapses in defending cost the team points again. The Lions have now conceded 10 goals in just four games to start this season, using four different starting back line combinations.

“We’re disappointed of course because we wanted more,” Gerbet said. “I think we had the chances to get more (than one point), but we know how it’s tough to come here to New York to get a point, so I won’t say we’re happy, but we need to go with that because that’s what we got. Disappointed of course with the result, because as a team we want to win every single game.”

“At the end, we take a point and we take proudly, because we made a great effort today,” Pareja said.

The Lions finish their road trip without a win (0-1-1) and now return to the friendly confines of Inter&Co Stadium a week from today when they host D.C. United.

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Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions look for their first road win of 2025 in New Jersey against the defensive-minded Red Bulls.

Published

2 days ago

on

March 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match thread and preview for a Saturday afternoon Eastern Conference matchup between Orlando City (1-2-0, 3 points) and the New York Red Bulls (1-1-1, 4 points) at Red Bull Arena Sports Illustrated Stadium (2:30 p.m., MLS Season Pass on Apple TV). This is the first of two scheduled meetings between the teams this season, with the Red Bulls making the return trip to Orlando on April 12.

Here’s what you need to know for the match.

History

The Lions are 8-10-3 in 21 league meetings with the Red Bulls in the all-time series (9-11-3 in all competitions), with a record of 4-6-1 on the road. Goals have been scarce in this series the last couple of seasons.

These two teams last met in the 2024 Eastern Conference final at Inter&Co Stadium on Nov. 30 of last year, with an Andres Reyes set piece goal all that separated the sides in a 1-0 New York win. It was the first-ever playoff meeting between the two clubs.

The teams last met in New Jersey on June 1, 2024, with the hosts coming away with a 1-0 win on a set piece goal from John Tolkin. Orlando City wasn’t in the best run of form at the time, and it was the third shutout the Lions suffered in a five-game span. The first meeting of the season came at Inter&Co Stadium on March 30, with the two sides playing to a 1-1 draw. A Kyle Smith foul in the box allowed Lewis Morgan to put the visitors ahead, but a late own goal by Noah Eile resulted in a stalemate. Ivan Angulo and Jack Lynn combined to force the own goal. So, if you’re counting, the Lions only mustered one goal against the Red Bulls in three meetings in 2024 and it came off a New York player.

Orlando City got the sweep in 2023 and did not concede a goal in the series, winning the last meeting of the year 3-0 at the stadium then known as Red Bull Arena. Facundo Torres scored twice — once from the spot — after Angulo opened the scoring for an easy road win. The two sides met in Orlando on opening day of 2023, with Orlando City winning 1-0 on a Torres penalty kick on Feb. 25. Sean Nealis’ handball allowed the Lions to start the season with a victory.

Orlando City won at Red Bull Arena 1-0 on Aug. 13, 2022, thanks to a Torres goal. That allowed the Lions to split the regular-season meetings and take two of three against New York in all competitions in 2022.

The Lions scored five unanswered goals to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 5-1 romp in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals on July 27, 2022 at Exploria Stadium. Cesar Araujo scored his first two professional goals on set pieces, while Mauricio Pereyra, Torres, and Benji Michel also found the net. Morgan scored New York’s lone goal.

The win in August had allowed the Lions to snap a four-game winless streak (0-3-1) in the regular-season series. The last of those non-wins came on April 24, 2022, when the Lions were walloped 3-0 at home on goals by Luquinhas, Cristian Casseres Jr., and Morgan, and Orlando City failed to get any of its measly three shot attempts on target.

The Red Bulls swept the season series in 2021. The teams met at Exploria Stadium on July 3 of that season with New York taking home a 2-1 win. Casseres opened the scoring just six minutes in, but Chris Mueller pulled the Lions level early in the second half. Fabio’s late goal lifted the visitors. Pereyra’s poor penalty was saved by Carlos Coronel, which cost Orlando City a better result.

The Red Bulls also handed Orlando City its first loss of the 2021 season, a 2-1 affair at Red Bull Arena, on May 29, 2021. Nani was suspended for that match and it showed, as the Lions were sloppy in possession and lacked composure on the ball. New York took the lead on goals by Caden Clark and Casseres, before Silvester van der Water pulled one back late. The Dutchman had a golden opportunity to tie the match moments later but skied his shot well over the bar.

The Lions got a road draw on Oct. 18, 2020, with Brian White equalizing deep in stoppage time in a 1-1 match. Nani had put the Lions ahead in the second half with a penalty kick goal and Orlando clinched its first ever MLS playoff spot despite spilling those late two points. That was the last match in the club’s record 12-match unbeaten streak in MLS play.

Orlando got the better of New York at Exploria Stadium on Oct. 3, 2020, winning 3-1 on goals by Daryl Dike, Junior Urso, and Antonio Carlos. Florian Valot scored for New York.

The Red Bulls won 1-0 at Exploria Stadium on July 21, 2019. White’s goal stood up as Carlos Ascues, Tesho Akindele, and Sacha Kljestan each hit the woodwork in the second half. Prior to that, the Lions eked out a 1-0 win at Red Bull Arena on Kljestan’s goal on March 23, 2019. Before that game, the home team had won each of the previous five games in the series, splitting a pair of matches during the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

The teams split two meetings in 2018, with the Red Bulls grabbing a 1-0 result in the 2018 season finale to capture the Supporters’ Shield and the Lions pulling off a 4-3 home victory on March 31, 2018. Each team won at home in 2017 to split the two-game series, with New York winning 3-1 on Aug. 12, and Orlando City opening the season series with a 1-0 win on April 9 behind Servando Carrasco’s goal.

The teams met three times in 2016, with New York going 2-0-1. The teams split two games in 2015, with the road team winning both times, including Orlando City’s 5-2 win in New Jersey behind a Cyle Larin hat trick.

Overview

Orlando City is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 road loss at New York City FC a week ago with all of the scoring in the second half. The Lions used their third different back line in three games and individual mistakes again proved costly in an otherwise solid road performance by the defense. It was the first match of the season in which the offense failed to score more than once, although there were enough good chances to get a better result. As a result of last week’s performance, Orlando is 0-1-0 on the road in 2025, but the Lions will try to regain the away form that allowed them to go 8-6-3 away from home last season.

New York is 1-0-0 at home and is coming off a 0-0 road draw at Atlanta United last weekend. The Red Bulls are once again stingy, having allowed just one goal through the first three matches of the season — second only to St. Louis City’s zero. On the other hand, New York has only scored twice this year, with Emil Forsberg and Mohammed Sofo netting those goals.

As has been the case in recent years, the Red Bulls defend well, have a great goalkeeper, and have recently turned matches into rock fights, usually finding ways to eke out enough offense to win low-scoring games.

The Lions will need to take care of the ball and avoid New York’s dangerous transition attack, although today’s hosts will be without offensive talisman Morgan. Forsberg is the player who has taken over as the leader of the offense, however, with nine goals and five assists last year in the regular season. Carlos Coronel is a difficult goalkeeper to beat, so when Orlando manages to create a chance against New York’s stout defense, the Lions will need to be clinical to finish.

“(Today’s) match is a good opportunity for us to bounce back. But it’s an even better opportunity to keep growing as a team and keep gluing together,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said ahead of the match. “It’s a good chance for the players who are new to come into our game model and make it better and better. We’re good, we’re optimistic. The way we approached the week was trying to put together a good game plan but also trying to spend a lot of time doing the exercises with the guys. So, as I said, the guys can glue in with everybody and find a rhythm and hopefully results too. Results make us more confident.”

Orlando City will be without Wilder Cartagena (Achilles), Favian Loyola (thigh), Nico Rodríguez (thigh), and Yutaro Tsukada (knee), while Duncan McGuire (shoulder) and David Brekalo (shoulder) have been elevated to questionable. New York has a considerable number of players on its availability list. The Red Bulls will be without Wiktor Bogacz (back), Ronald Donkor (shin), Kyle Duncan (knee), Cameron Harper (knee), Roald Mitchell (knee), Morgan (knee), Marcelo Morales (knee), and Sofo (groin). Serge Ngoma (abdominal) and Adri Mehmeti (thigh) are questionable.

Match Content

Official Lineups

Orlando City (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.

Defenders: Kyle Smith, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, Alex Freeman.

Defensive Midfielders: Joran Gerbet, Eduard Atuesta.

Attacking Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, Marco Pasalic.

Forward: Luis Muriel.

Bench: Javier Otero, Rafael Santos, Zakaria Taifi, David Brekalo, Colin Guske, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Gustavo Caraballo, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire.

New York Red Bulls (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Carlos Coronel.

Defenders: Alexander Hack, Noah Eile, Sean Nealis, Dylan Nealis.

Defensive Midfielders: Daniel Edelman, Peter Stroud.

Attacking Midfielders: Raheem Edwards, Emil Forsberg, Dennis Gjengaar.

Forward: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.

Bench: AJ Marcucci, Tim Parker, Wikelman Carmona, Serge Ngoma, Omar Valencia, Aiden Jarvis, Andy Rojas, Felipe Carballo, Julian Hall.

Referees

REF: Armando Villarreal.
AR1: Jeremy Kieso.
AR2: Meghan Mullen.
4TH: Lorenzo Hernandez.
VAR: Daniel Radford.
AVAR: Robert Schaap.

How to Watch

Match Time: 2:30 p.m.

Venue: Sports Illustrated Stadium — Harrison, NJ.

TV/Streaming: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish).

Twitter: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow along at @TheManeLand, as well as Orlando City’s official Twitter feed (@OrlandoCitySC). You can also catch our live updates on Bluesky (@TheManeLand.bsky.social).

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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