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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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6 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Orlando City

2024 Orlando City Season in Review: Jack Lynn

The young striker played a career high in minutes for Orlando City and played in all four
competitions.

Published

9 hours ago

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December 11, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Jack Lynn joined Orlando City through the 2022 MLS SuperDraft, when he was selected in the first round by the Lions with the No. 18 overall pick out of Notre Dame. He primarily played with OCB during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, scoring 15 goals in 2022 and 19 in 2023 while earning the MLS NEXT Pro MVP for that season. He was a depth player for most of the 2024 season with Orlando City, but late in the season he returned to playing more frequently with OCB, and quickly found his goal-scoring form once again with the Young Lions.

Let’s take a look back at Lynn’s 2024 season.

Statistical Breakdown

After two seasons of double-digit goal scoring in MLS NEXT Pro, the young forward looked to be a leading candidate to serve as the backup to Duncan McGuire, and in the opening few months he was frequently in the game day squad. However, the signing of Luis Muriel meant that he often was an unused substitute as the Lions used McGuire and Muriel as their strikers. Ramiro Enrique then returned from a prolonged absence and took over the starting spot with McGuire as the primary sub off the bench, and in the second half of the season, Lynn did not dress for Orlando City as frequently. He got some starts for OCB and scored four goals and had one assist in his eight games played with the Young Lions.

For Orlando City, Lynn appeared primarily in MLS regular-season games, making 11 appearances with two starts, playing 253 minutes. He took six shots, putting three on target and scoring two goals. He passed at a 66.7% completion percentage but did not have any key passes or assists. On the defensive side deuces were wild, as he won two tackles, made two blocks and had two clearances. He committed five fouls, drew two on the opposition, and was not booked.

Lynn also made one appearance late in the Lions’ final MLS playoff match, coming in for two minutes and recording just one touch of the ball, with no shots, passes attempted or defensive actions, and he did not receive a booking.

During Concacaf Champions Cup play, the Notre Dame product came off the bench in both games against Cavalry FC, playing 21 total minutes without a goal contribution, recording one shot that was off target, completing all three of his passes, and suffering one foul. He did not contribute any defensive actions or get booked.

Lynn participated in one Leagues Cup match, subbing in against CF Montréal. He played 12 minutes and did not have a goal contribution or take any shots, but he completed both of his passes, with one being a key pass. On the defensive side, he made two recoveries and committed one foul, but he wasn’t booked.

Best Game

The 24-year-old striker earned his first-ever starting nod for Orlando City on March 23 against Austin FC, and in the 42nd minute, he scored his first MLS goal. He timed his run perfectly to get wide open at the back post and finished with a powerful header off a cross from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to give the Lions a 1-0 lead.

Lynn went on to play 73 minutes, completing 10 of his 13 passes (76.9%) and adding one additional off-target shot. He contributed a tackle and a clearance on defense. Orlando City won the game 2-0, making Lynn’s goal in the opening half the game-winner. Head Coach Óscar Pareja said he was pleased with Lynn’s performance, praising him in the post-game press conference:

“(Jack) is a player who patiently has been waiting (for) his opportunity,” Pareja said. “I could say that maybe he should have more games at this point with the way he has performed in the second group and what he has achieved as an individual. He’s very lethal and he has goals. Today, he opened the game. Jack’s discipline and constant effort has paid off and we’re happy.”

2024 Final Grade

With only 288 minutes on the field across all competitions in 2024, Lynn did not play enough minutes to get a grade for the season, receiving an incomplete from The Mane Land staff. Still, he showed that he was capable of contributing when called upon to play first-team minutes.

2025 Outlook

After watching how prolific Lynn was in MLS NEXT Pro in 2023, and then once again this season when he returned to play a few matches with OCB, Lynn has clearly proven that he is above the level of play in that league. In limited minutes at the MLS level, he has shown flashes, but based on the substitution patterns as the season went along, it was clear that he was at best the third option at striker. Orlando City appears to be bringing back both Enrique and McGuire, so while they picked up Lynn’s option for 2025 season, I expect that it will be another season similar to 2024, where he is a depth player who primarily comes in off the bench, if he comes in at all.

I believe that Lynn is an MLS-caliber player, as he is an excellent finisher of the “fox in the box” ilk, but my projection is that 2025 will look similar to 2024 and he will be fighting for minutes off the bench at the MLS level.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

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Lion Links: 12/11/24

Orlando City’s protected players, Orlando Pride roster update, the USMNT is returning to Inter&Co Stadium, and more.

Published

13 hours ago

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December 11, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. The season might be over, but there’s still plenty of news to be found. I’m glad that we have all the movies and specials to watch since there are no MLS or NWSL matches. There are quite a few that my family watch each year including Elf, Scrooged, and of course, Die Hard. Let me know your favorites in the comments below. Let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Protected List Released

The addition of San Diego SC to MLS means another expansion draft this off-season. Yesterday, Orlando City released its protected players list. There are a total of 19 players on the list, though seven of those are automatically protected due to either Homegrown or Generation Adidas status. San Diego will be able to pick up to five players from across the league, but only one from any given club. There aren’t many surprises in which players Orlando City chose to protect.

Pride End-of-Season Roster Update

Following a historic season that saw the club win both the NWSL Shield and the 2024 NWSL Cup, the Pride have released their end of season roster update. We already knew that Celia, Carrie Lawrence, and Megan Montefusco retired. Given how the club works its contracts, often re-signing players during the season, there weren’t a lot of surprises. Marta and Evelina Duljan were the two players out of contract, and we now know that Duljan won’t be returning, while the club is negotiating a deal that would keep Marta in Orlando.

USMNT Returning to Inter&Co Stadium

The USMNT is heading back to the City Beautiful, as the team will play Costa Rica Jan. 22 at Inter&Co Stadium. Kickoff for the match will be 7 p.m., allowing fans in the Orlando area to make it after work. It will be the second match in Florida, as the Americans will take on Venezuela Jan. 18 at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale. Pre-sale tickets went on sale Tuesday, and ticket sales for the general public start Friday.

USWNT vs. Brazil

If you were hoping for a rematch of the 2024 Women’s World Cup final between the USWNT and the Brazilian Women’s National Team, you are in luck. The two teams will square off on April 5 and April 8, 2025 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and at PayPal Park in San Jose, respectively. The match at SoFi Stadium will be the first soccer match played in the venue, which will also host matches for the 2026 World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • It’s no surprise to those of us who work with the Pride regularly that Jackie Maynard, Lucas Medeiros, and the rest of Orlando’s comms staff was named the first-ever NWSL Communications Team of the Year winner. We congratulate Jackie and her team and look forward to continuing to work with a great group of professionals.
  • Take a trip down memory lane with this compilation of Facundo Torres’ goals from 2024.
  • Today, FIFA will award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia. The circumstances leading up to this “decision” are exactly as forthright, transparent, and without any hint of shenanigans as one expects from FIFA. Give me a minute, my eyes got stuck in the back of my head because of how hard I rolled them.
  • In related news, Norway plans to protest the decision to award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia and will abstain on the basis that not enough has been done to protect human rights at the event.
  • Orlando City wasn’t the only team to drop its list of protected rosters. Here are the lists for every MLS club.
  • Plenty of teams were in action in the UEFA Champions League Tuesday. Liverpool won its sixth consecutive first round match 1-0 over Girona, and Mbappe scored and got injured in Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory over Atalanta.

That will do it for today. Keep checking in for our Season in Review pieces for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/10/24

Facundo Torres linked with move to Palmeiras, Pride players in FIFPRO Women’s World 11, Amanda Allen suffers injury, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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December 10, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. I hope your week is getting off to a good start and that you’re on top of any Christmas shopping that you still need to do, because I’m just now realizing that I’ve done exactly zero of mine. Alas, the only way out is through. As usual, we have a lot to talk through this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Facundo Torres Linked With Palmeiras

Tom Bogert reported on Monday evening that Orlando City has agreed to a deal with Brazilian club Palmeiras for the transfer of Facundo Torres. While Bogert says the two clubs have reached an agreement, the transfer is still pending as Torres and Palmeiras still need to agree on personal terms. While no price tag was given, the fee would reportedly eclipse the $9.5 million fee that West Bromwich Albion paid for Daryl Dike, which is OCSC’s current outbound transfer record. Torres is the club’s record signing, as he joined from Penarol for roughly $7.5 million, and has been central to the team’s success ever since. We will bring you more from this story as it develops.

Familiar Faces in FIFPRO Women’s World 11

FIFA announced the 2024 FIFPRO Women’s World 11 on Monday and there are two familiar faces in the lineup, as Marta and Barbra Banda were named to the team. This is the third time in Marta’s career that she has been chosen for the award, which is the only global player award decided exclusively by the players themselves. Banda is included in the team for the first time, with this also being the very first time that an African player has made the team. Both players had incredible seasons for the Orlando Pride and were instrumental in the team winning its first two pieces of silverware. Congratulations to both for all their hard work and justified recognition!

Amanda Allen Suffers Injury

The Orlando Pride announced on Monday that forward Amanda Allen has suffered a torn labrum in her right shoulder and will undergo surgery to repair it. As a result, Allen’s loan with USL Super League team Lexington Sporting Club has been terminated, and she has been placed on the season-ending injury list. It’s a tough break for Allen, who became the youngest player to debut for the team back during the 2023 season, as she was getting good minutes and experience on loan. We wish her all the best and hope to see her back on the field soon!

Christian Pulisic Injury News

AC Milan announced on Monday that United States Men’s National Team forward Christian Pulisic has torn a muscle in his right calf, and will spend time on the sideline. The winger went off injured during the team’s game on Friday, and Milan has said that he could be on the shelf until January. While the USMNT won’t play a competitive game until March’s Concacaf Nations League semifinals, the timing is a tough blow for Pulisic, who has had an excellent start to the season with eight goal contributions in Serie A and three UEFA Champions League goals. Here’s hoping that he makes a speedy recovery.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will take part in games this week, so make sure you get everything marked down on your calendar. Things get started later today as Auston Trusty, Cameron Carter-Vickers, and Celtic take on Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League, while Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, Malik Tillman, and PSV Eindhoven face Brest in the same competition. Tomorrow has Yunus Musah and AC Milan hosting Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus welcome Manchester City to Allianz Stadium. Things then finish up on Friday as Mark McKenzie and Toulouse host St-Etienne in Ligue 1 play.

MLS Transfer Happenings

We have a lot of MLS transfer moves and roster changes to cover this morning. Cruzeiro has declined the purchase option on FC Cincinnati winger Alvaro Barreal, meaning he has returned to the club following the conclusion of his loan. Expansion side San Diego FC has acquired Tomas Angel and a second-round pick in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft from LAFC in exchange for $200,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM). Austin FC also bought out Gyasi Zardes’ contract, making the 10th-highest scorer in MLS history a free agent.

The Colorado Rapids signed center backs Ian Murphy and Chidozie Awaziem from FC Cincinnati in exchange for $1 million in General Allocation Money. Tom Bogert is also reporting that Bournemouth is finalizing a deal to sign American center back Matai Akinmboni from D.C. United in a deal worth up to $2.5 million. Finally, in the wildest piece of MLS transfer news I’ve seen in awhile, I simply present the following tweet.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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