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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/6/26

Pride fall to Angel City, OCB draw Crown Legacy, World Cup roundup, and more.

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2 hours ago

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July 6, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City B

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope you all had a great Fourth of July holiday weekend down in Florida. I was busy working over the weekend, but I got to check out a fireworks show at Wrigley Field. Let’s wish a happy belated birthday to Orlando City B goalkeeper Juan Rojas, who turned 18 Saturday. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Pride Fall to Angel City

The Orlando Pride fell 2-0 to Angel City FC at BMO Stadium Friday in their first match after the month-long World Cup break. Maiara Niehues scored the opener for Angel City in the first half. Sveindis Jonsdottir added another goal for Angel City to seal the win. With Barba Banda sidelined with a thigh injury, Orlando struggled to get anything going offensively and couldn’t get the ball out of its own end throughout the match. That result keeps the Pride in eighth, one point ahead of Angel City in the NWSL table. The Pride will look to bounce back at home Friday, facing the Kansas City Current at Inter&Co Stadium.

OCB Falls in Penalty Shootout After 1-1 Draw vs. Crown Legacy

Orlando City B overturned a 1-0 deficit to secure a 1-1 draw against Crown Legacy on the road at the Sportsplex at Matthews Sunday. After a scoreless first half, all the goals came in the second half. Crown Legacy struck first to take the lead, but Dylan Judelson leveled the match for the Young Lions. Crown Legacy won the penalty shootout 4-2 to earn a second point. OCB will be back on the road to take on FC Cincinnati 2 Sunday at NKU Soccer Stadium in Highland Heights, KY.

Crepeau and Canada Shut Out by Morocco in World Cup

The World Cup Round of 16 kicked off Saturday, with Canada falling 3-0 to Morocco at NRG Stadium in Houston. Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau got the start for Canada. Former Lions Cyle Larin and Richie Laryea were in action as well. After a scoreless first half, Azzedine Ounahi scored twice in the second half for Morocco to take a 2-0 lead. Soufiane Rahimi added the insurance goal in stoppage time to put this match away as Morocco booked a spot in the quarterfinals, while Canada’s run in the tournament came to an end.

World Cup Roundup

In the other matchups from the Round of 16 over the weekend, Kylian Mbappe scored from the penalty spot for the only goal of the match in France’s 1-0 win against Paraguay Saturday. Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda was on the bench but did not play. On Sunday, Erling Haaland scored twice to help Norway edge Brazil 2-1 to reach the quarterfinals for the first time, and Jude Bellingham scored twice for England in a 3-2 win against Mexico. France will play Morocco, while England takes on Norway in the quarterfinals. Today’s Round of 16 matchups feature Spain facing Portugal and the U.S. Men’s National Team taking on Belgium.

Folarin Balogun’s Red Card Ban Suspended by FIFA

FIFA announced Sunday that the federation’s Disciplinary Committee suspended U.S. Men’s National Team forward Folarin Balogun’s one match red card ban. After being issued a one-match ban following his red card in the USMNT’s 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, Balogun will be available to play in tonight’s Round of 16 match against Belgium at Lumen Field in Seattle. Balogun’s one-match ban will be placed on a one-year suspension status, but if he commits a similar infraction within that time, he will have to serve the ban. With Balogun back in play, it’s a huge boost for the USMNT attack, as he has scored three goals for the Yanks in the World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando City gave a shout-out on social media to Crepeau, Marco Pasalic, and Ojeda for their great runs with their respective countries, reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup.
  • Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp is reportedly set to become the new manager of the German Men’s National Team.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City

Flashback Friday: July 4, 2023 vs. Toronto FC

Let’s rewind to an Independence Day affair that had plenty of offensive fireworks.

Published

3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The United States Men’s National Team picked up a gritty, resilient 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday, and will now face Belgium in a rematch of the 2014 World Cup Round of 16 next Monday. While we patiently wait for that game, it’s time to continue our Friday tradition of revisiting some classic Orlando City games from years past.

Last week, we rewound to a high octane affair against the Chicago Fire in late June 2022, that saw the Lions douse Chicago’s flames and pick up a much-needed 4-2 victory. Today, let’s hop in the time machine and travel back to Independence Day 2023, when Toronto FC came to town.

At the time of Toronto’s visit, things were going relatively smoothly for OCSC. The team was riding a three-match unbeaten streak and had scored five goals across those three games. Oscar Pareja lined up his team in its customary 4-2-3-1, with Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith; Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in the attacking midfield; and Duncan McGuire up top.

Orlando very nearly got a goal a little under 10 minutes into the game. Former OCSC goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh knocked down a cross in front of the net, and while Pereyra was first to the ball, he could only blast it over the bar with the goal at his mercy. Fortunately, that miss would not come back to haunt the Lions, who bagged the game’s first goal in the 16th minute. Angulo sucked defenders toward him on the left edge of the box before releasing Santos out wide. The fullback played a peach of a first-time, curling cross to the back post, where Araujo was waiting to power a diving header into the side netting at the far post for his first league goal.

That goal broke the game open, and Orlando got another goal six minutes later to double the advantage. It initially looked like a carbon copy of the first goal, with Santos out in space on the left side of the box, sending in a curled cross. The ball deflected off a defender and came in low toward the goal. Ranjitsingh waited for the ball instead of going to claim it, and that allowed McGuire to nip in front of him and get a touch on the ball to sneak it in at the near post.

Orlando nearly got even more goals inside the half hour, with Torres and McGuire both going close in quick succession. Federico Bernardeschi smashed a shot off the post in the 28th minute, and the Lions seemed to be losing focus a little bit, with the hydration break a welcome pause in play when it came. OCSC came out of the pause well, and Pereyra put Angulo through in the 36th minute, but the Colombian couldn’t bring the ball under control and fashion a shooting chance.

Orlando led in every meaningful statistical category at halftime. The Lions had more possession (55.8%-44.2%), shots (6-2), shots on goal (2-0), corners (4-2), and passing accuracy (89.5%-85%). Most importantly, they led 2-0 on the scoreboard.

Toronto tried to change things at halftime by introducing three substitutes, but Orlando settled back into the game quickly and negated the efforts of interim TFC manager Terry Dunfield. Angulo and Torres forced Ranjitsingh into a pair of saves in the 53rd and 55th minutes, and the Lions tried to press their advantage by sending on Ramiro Enrique and Martin Ojeda in the 57th minute for McGuire and Pereyra.

The game then changed in a big way in the 62nd minute. Cartagena and Bernardeschi exchanged words after a turnover, and the Italian winger put Cartagena on the ground with the help of a little theatrics from the midfielder. Bernardeschi had already been yellow carded in the 47th minute for a foul on Smith, and the altercation with Wilder saw him receive a second yellow and his marching orders to go along with it.

With TFC down to 10 men, the Lions started to tee off at goal. Ojeda came close to getting the team’s third in the 69th minute, with Enrique doing the same in the 71st but missing just wide. When the goal finally came, it was from the unlikely foot of Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, who had been subbed into the game alongside Ercan Kara in the 68th minute.

Thorhallsson made a great run behind the defense in the 77th minute, and Araujo picked him out well. Ranjitsingh came out to try to play sweeper-keeper, but DDT beat him to the ball easily, touched it around the former Lion, and rolled it into the empty net to score his first MLS goal and make it 3-0.

Toronto had a halfway decent chance to pull one back in the 82nd minute, but Brandon Servania’s long-distance attempt at chipping Gallese ended up missing high and settling on the roof of the net. Kara then iced the game in the 84th minute. Araujo fired a pass to Ojeda at the top of the box, and even though he had trouble bringing it under control, he had the presence of mind to backheel it toward goal for the big Austrian to pounce on and fire a low, hard shot into the net for 4-0.

Ojeda nearly got a goal of his own two minutes later but had a great effort saved in what was the last truly dangerous moment of the game.

As was the case at halftime, when the final whistle blew, the Lions had created plenty of fireworks on both the scoreboard and the stat sheet. OCSC finished with more possession (59.6%-40.4%), shots (18-6), shots on target (9-0), corners (8-2), and passing accuracy (91%-84.8%).

Marcus Mitchell had Player Grades for this one, and he named Araujo the Man of the Match with a grade of 8 out of 10 for his one-goal/one-assist effort. The other high performers on the night were Antonio Carlos, and Cartagena, who each graded out at 7.5 out of 10.

That’ll do it for this week’s trip down memory lane. We’ve been getting spoiled lately, with Orlando putting up four goals in back-to-back time machine games, and it’s made for an enjoyable glimpse into years gone by. With any luck, next week’s edition will be similarly entertaining. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/3/26

Orlando Pride visit Angel City tonight, NWSL free agents to watch, Portugal and Spain advance, and more.

Published

3 days ago

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July 3, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I don’t have many plans this holiday weekend beyond enjoying some soccer and indulging myself in a few hot dogs to celebrate. It should be a fun weekend, but make sure to stay safe out there if you plan on setting off any fireworks. For now though, let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Take On Angel City FC Tonight

The NWSL resumes today and the Orlando Pride will play against Angel City FC at 10 p.m. in their first match since a 3-1 win over Bay FC on May 29. That win capped off a six-game month for the Pride, including a stretch of three straight road games. Meanwhile, Angel City parted ways with Alex Straus over the break after only winning once in May, and tonight’s match will be Leif Gunnar Smerud’s first since being named interim head coach. It can be tough playing an opponent with a new coach, but hopefully the Pride can bring all three points back to Orlando.

Top NWSL Free Agents to Watch

Free agency is officially underway in the NWSL and the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year includes some of the league’s best players. Orlando Pride star Marta was listed as one of the top free agents to watch, though I would be pretty shocked if she plays for another NWSL club if she leaves Orlando after this season. Leicy Santos, Debinha, and Rose Lavelle are other skilled attackers who will become free agents, but Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger is sure to have plenty of clubs reaching out for her talents as well.

Portugal and Spain Advance in World Cup

This World Cup hasn’t been short on excitement and that continued with Portugal’s 2-1 win against Croatia. After a scoreless first half, Croatia took the lead thanks to a goal from Ivan Perisic, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized from the penalty spot and the game was moments away from heading to extra time. Goncalo Ramos gave Portugal the goal it needed to advance deep in stoppage time, but Croatia nearly came back with a goal that was disallowed due to an offside call. Spain cruised to a 3-0 win against Austria to book its spot in the round of 16 as well. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice for his second brace of the tournament, with Marc Cucurella assisting on both of his goals. Spain and Portugal will square off in the next round in what should be a fantastic match. Switzerland and Algeria kicked off late.

The round of 32 wraps up today with a trio of matches, starting with Egypt’s game against Australia. Cape Verde will then look to shock the world when it plays Argentina, and the late game will be between Colombia and Ghana.

Columbus Crew Sign New Designated Player

The Columbus Crew have signed Spanish midfielder Brais Mendez to a Designated Player contract through the 2028-2029 season with a club option for the 2029-2030 season. Mendez has spent the past four La Liga seasons with Real Sociedad, recording 33 goals and 24 assists in 166 appearances. He gives the crew some additional firepower as reports swirl regarding Diego Rossi’s departure for CF Monterrey. While maybe not in the same headline-grabbing tier of MLS summer signings like Antoine Griezmann or Robert Lewandowski, Mendez is a big addition to the league as the Eastern Conference arms race continues.

Free Kicks

  • CF Montreal sent $2.1 million in General Allocation Money to Austin FC in exchange for midfielder Dani Pereira. Selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 MLS SuperDraft, Pereira has contributed six goals and 23 assists in 165 appearances across all competitions for Austin.
  • Real Salt Lake reportedly rejected a transfer bid around $3.5 million from CF Monterrey for midfielder Diego Luna.
  • American winger Emma Sears reportedly requested a trade from Racing Louisville, although the club is not reportedly interested in a midseason transfer.
  • The United States Men’s National Team’s win over Bosnia and Herzegovina had record viewership. Understandably so, too, as I spent most of the match pacing around my living room.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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