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Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/4/25

USWNT wins as Abello gets first cap, Orlando Pride’s Concacaf W Champions Cup draw, Club World Cup in Orlando, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Tuesday was a busy soccer day, especially on the women’s side. We have plenty of Orlando Pride news, and the USWNT secured yet another victory. I’m hoping the good vibes continue since I’ll be coming down to Orlando for the Pride’s match this Saturday. If you’re going to the match, let me know, as I’d love to meet as many of our readers as possible. For now, let’s get to the links.

USWNT Blanks Jamaica

The USWNT defeated Jamaica 4-0 in a friendly at Energizer Park in St. Louis. The Orlando Pride’s Kerry Abello got her first start and her first cap in the match. She went the full 90 minutes and almost had her first international goal in the second half, but the chance went a bit wide of the right post. Ally Sentnor and Lynn Biyendolo each scored a brace as the U.S. rolled to an easy win.

Pride Internationals

Abello wasn’t the only Pride player to make an international appearance. Marta returned to international duty for Brazil getting the start and the captain’s armband in a 2-1 win over Japan. Both Grace Chanda and Barbra Banda started for Zambia in the 2-0 loss to South Africa in the Three Nations Challenge. Congratulations are also due to Zara Chavoshi, who earned her first cap with the Canadian Women’s National Team in the match against Haiti.

Concacaf W Champions Cup Draw

The Concacaf W Champions Cup draw happened yesterday and the Orlando Pride are in Group A with Club America Femenil, CF Pachuca Femenil, LD Alajuelense, and Chorrillo FC. Group B consists of NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Washington Spirit, CF Monterrey Femenil, Vancouver Rise FC Academy, and Alianza Women FC. The competition kicks off Aug. 19-21.

FIFA Loves Orlando

FIFA President Gianni Infantino sat for an interview with Jamie Seh of WKMG Orlando. Infantino spoke about the upcoming Club World Cup matches at Inter&Co Stadium and Camping World Stadium. FIFA loves Orlando enough for the city to host the Club World Cup, but not the actual World Cup. Here is the schedule for the matches in Orlando. We will be bringing you coverage of these matches.

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That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the return of the Orlando Pride this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/3/25

Orlando City B announces signings, details of Concacaf W Champions Cup, UEFA Nations League preview, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Good morning, everyone. It’s been a pretty brutal last two games for Orlando City, there’s no getting around that fact. While it’s never fun to not have the team in action, a two-week break between games maybe isn’t the worst thing in this particular case. Even though it’ll be a minute before the Lions are back in action, we still have plenty of things to talk about, so let’s get into today’s links.

Orlando City B Announces Signings

Orlando City B announced on Monday that it has signed Clovis Archange and Jackson Platts to MLS NEXT Pro contracts. The pair are graduates of the Orlando City Development Academy and were part of the team that won the U-18 Generation Adidas Cup earlier this year. The 18-year-old Platts captained the team in the final, while Archange was named as one of the players to watch before the tournament started. They’ve both featured for their countries at the youth level, with Platts appearing for the United States U-16 and U-18 teams, and Archange suiting up for Canada’s U-17 side. Congratulations to both players!

Concacaf Announces W Champions Cup Details

Concacaf has named the 10 teams that will participate 2025-2026 Concacaf W Champions Cup and has announced the pots for tonight’s draw. The Orlando Pride are one of three American teams participating in the second year of the competition, and have been placed into Pot 2. Teams will be divided into two groups of five, with each team facing every club in its group once, and the top two sides from each group then advancing to the semifinals. The winner gets a spot in the 2027 FIFA Women’s Champions Cup, and the FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, which is set to be held for the first time in 2028. The draw takes place tonight at 8 p.m.

UEFA Nations League Preview

The UEFA Nations League returns this week, with the semifinals set for tomorrow and Thursday, and the third-place game and final taking place on Sunday. Things get started on Wednesday afternoon with Germany facing off against Portugal in Munich. Germany put away Italy 5-4 on aggregate in the quarterfinals to get to the semis for the first time, while Portugal beat Denmark 5-2, and is hunting for its second Nations League trophy. Thursday has Spain taking on France in Stuttgart. The Spanish beat the Netherlands on penalties in the semis to get here, while France took out Croatia on penalties to punch its ticket. There’s plenty of recent history in this one as these teams also met in the semifinals of Euro 2024 last year, with Spain claiming a 2-1 win.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

The transfer rumor mill has kicked into full swing, so let’s catch up on some of the big talking points. Starting in England, Manchester United has reportedly increased its interest in Brian Mbuemo, with the Brentford forward said to also be interested in moving to the club. There are said to be a number of Premier League teams interested in signing Southampton midfielder Tyler Dibling after his team was relegated to the Championship this season. Jobe Bellingham will reportedly follow in his brother Jude’s footsteps, as he’s reportedly decided to join Borussia Dortmund. Finally, Inter Milan is reportedly interested in signing Marcus Rashford as the Italians look to rebuild the squad following a brutal defeat in the UEFA Champions League final.

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  • Here’s a first look at Alex Freeman in his USMNT kit:

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Chicago Fire: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 3-1 loss against the Chicago Fire?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City turned one loss into two heading into the international break. The Lions gave up three first-half goals and lost 3-1 at home to the Chicago Fire. A determined but ineffective offense wasn’t able to make up for lapses on the defensive end. The break is about a week late, but perhaps the players can get some rest. Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their Eastern Conference matchup.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 5 — El Pulpo literally had the ball slip through his hands on Philip Zinckernagel’s early goal. The other two goals weren’t on him, but it’s hard to forgive the first howler. He recorded one save and one clearance. It was not a great night from Gallese, but every keeper has one like that occasionally. He had 22 touches, completing 89.5% of his 19 passes and five of his seven long balls.

D, David Brekalo, 6 —Brekalo started at left back as usual, but after Rodrigo Schlegel subbed off he moved inside with Robin Jansson. He was busy in both halves of the pitch as he pressed into the attack when at fullback. He didn’t push forward quite as much after moving to center back, though he did still contribute as Orlando chased the match. He recorded 71 touches, completing 86.2% of his 58 passes. Brekalo also completed four of his five long balls. Like many, he managed one shot, though it wasn’t on target as his effort off a corner kick was blocked. Defensively, he tallied three interceptions and one tackle.

D, Robin Jansson, 5.5 — The captain let his emotions get the better of him in the first half. He was battling Hugo Cuypers all night, and given Cuypers scored a brace, I can’t say Jansson won the matchup. His frustration resulted in a yellow card in the 45th minute. After the half, he was able to get back on track, though the damage was done. Jansson had 70 touches, completing 100% of his 59 passes. He had one key pass and even took one shot, though it wasn’t on target. Defensively, he recorded three clearances and one tackle.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 4.5 — It was not a good night for Schlegel. He lost Cuypers on the second and third Chicago goals, and it’s not recommended to allow the opposition’s best goal scorer to be alone in the box or to get in behind the back line. Defensively, he only contributed two tackles and recorded no interceptions or clearances. He managed 30 touches and completed 88.9% of his 27 passes. Schlegel committed two fouls and received a yellow card in the 49th minute. He was subbed off in the 54th minute for Rafael Santos.

D, Alex Freeman, 6 — Freeman scored Orlando’s only goal in the 39th minute, putting a header off the corner kick on target and into the back of the net by way of a deflection in front. It was his lone shot on target in two attempts. The right back recorded 77 touches, completing 78.4% of his 51 passes, including five crosses and one key pass. Defensively, he recorded three interceptions, one clearance, and one tackle.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 6 — Angulo still doesn’t have a goal in 2025, which isn’t surprising given his one shot on goal was well off target. He wasn’t bad in this match, but he also didn’t play very long, as he only touched the ball 19 times. He got lost defensively on the second Chicago goal as there was poor communication and he strayed inside, leaving Zinckernagel out wide alone for an easy cross to Cuypers. His best moment in the match came after tracking back to help recover the ball in his own end before making an incredible long run deep into the attacking box and backheeling a pass to Luis Muriel, who dropped it to Marco Pasalic for a good scoring chance. Angulo completed all of his 12 passes. He came off at halftime for Ramiro Enrique, but he was one of the few players who appeared to have a lot of jump in his legs in the first half.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 6.5 (MotM) — Atuesta showed how important he is to Orlando City club in this match. His vision and ability to connect passes put teammates in dangerous places, even if they couldn’t convert those chances. He continued to make good passes in and around the box trying to get Orlando’s offense going. Atuesta had a team-high 94 touches, completing 89.7% of his 78 passes, including two key passes. He connected on five of his seven long balls and one of his seven crosses. Atuesta attempted two shots, though neither was on target. Defensively, he contibuted one tackle.

MF, Joran Gerbet, 6 — Gerbet started in place of the suspended Cesar Araujo and continues to have some rookie struggles midway through the season. If he hadn’t been so good earlier in the season, it wouldn’t seem like he’s having difficulty lately. Like others, he got a little bit better as the match went on, though he came off in the 77th minute for Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. Gerbet had 44 touches, completing 93.8% of his 32 passes, winning one aerial, and recording one key pass. Defensively, he contributed four tackles, and one interception,

MF, Marco Pašalić, 6 — Pasalic was active if ultimately ineffective in Orlando’s attack with four shots, though he only put one on target. He recorded 63 touches, completing 82.2% of his 45 passes, including two of his four long balls. Pasalic contributed two key passes and connected on one of his five crosses. He took a nasty tumble, hitting the back of his head when he landed, though he was able to continue. He exited in the 88th minute for Gustavo Caraballo.

F, Martín Ojeda, 6.5 — It was Ojeda’s corner kick that found the head of Freeman to give Orlando its only goal. He wasn’t able to contribute a goal in this match, though not for a lack of trying. He took four shots with one on target, led the team with eight key passes, and recorded the assist. Ojeda touched the ball 62 times, completing 90.6% of 32 passes. He was fouled three times, one of which earned a free kick outside the box in the 58th minute. He even contributed on defense with two tackles and an interception.

F, Luis Muriel, 6 — On another night Muriel has at least a brace. He took six shots with none on target, though he had a free kick that went into the wall 59th minute, and he hit the crossbar in the 64th. If that ball is two inches lower, Orlando maybe climbs back into the match. He still dribbled into blind alleys and gave the ball away to the opposition, though not as much as in some other matches. He had 65 touches, completing 80% of his 35 passes, including one cross and two key passes.

Substitutes

F, Ramiro Enrique, (45′), 6 — Enrique came on for Angulo to start the second half as the Lions pushed for a comeback. He was fairly accurate, putting two of his four shots on target. One shot in the 62nd minute went right to the keeper, though the other shot was saved it was a very well taken chance on the outside of his right foot as he moved towards the goal. He also made a great tackle in the 86th minute to take the ball back from Jonathan Bamba. He did all of that on only 19 touches, completing 88.9% of his nine passes, including one key pass.

D, Rafael Santos, (54’), 5.5 — With both Schlegel and Jansson on yellow cards, Santos came on to replace Schlegel to allow Brekalo to move inside with Jansson. Perhaps it was because of the desperation with which Orlando City was playing, but it wasn’t too bad of an outing for Santos. He was active on the left side, putting in five crosses, but he completed just one. Santos tried to combine with his teammates while looking to break down the Chicago defense. He had 34 touches, completing 95.8% of his 24 passes. Defensively, he had one clearance.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, (77’), 6 — I feel like Dagur Dan could have started in place of Gerbet rather than subbing on. His motor was obviously better than those that had played more minutes during the month of May. He was persistent in trying to win the ball back when Chicago tried to counter attack. He only managed nine touches, completing 100% of his six passes. His individual effort in stoppage time was a highlight, as he did well to win the ball back and jumpstart the counter, but ultimately Enrique not only strayed offside prior to the pass but also fired his shot off target anyway.

MF, Gustavo Caraballo (88′), N/A — The youngster came on late for Pasalic. He only managed six touches, completing 80% of his five passes. The four he completed were all back passes. He made some runs into the box, but the ball never arrived for him to get a chance.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s disappointing 3-1 loss at home against Chicago. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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