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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

Published

11 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. New England Revolution: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution?

Published

13 hours ago

on

May 12, 2025

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City saw a 2-0 lead wash away just before halftime and took the lead in the second half. It looked like the Lions were on their way to a big three points, but a late penalty and a disallowed goal resulted in a 3-3 draw. It’s a draw that feels like a loss for the Lions.

Let’s take a look at how the individual players did in this disappointing game.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6 — Gallese had a difficult night, though it wasn’t all his fault. He faced six shots and conceded three goals. However, two were primarily because of bad defending, and one was a penalty. He made three saves and blocked away a rocket late.  The Orlando City goalkeeper touched the ball 25 times and completed 77.8% of his 18 passes, including four of his eight long balls.

D, David Brekalo, 6 — Brekalo had a good game at left back, touching the ball 65 times, second most on the team. He completed 90.7% of his 43 passes, including a key pass. However, his lone cross and long ball were incomplete. The defender took two shots, putting one on target, and nearly had a goal in the 48th minute with a strong run into the box, but a defender deflected it off the woodwork. Defensively, he recorded two tackles, one interception, three clearances, and a blocked shot. He was a little late trying to deny Ignatius Ganago’s cross through the box to Ilay Feingold, and his sliding effort to do so took him out of position to deny Feingold’s centering pass for New England’s first goal. It was one of his few missteps of the match, and the effort was there if not the execution. He moved from left back to center back for the closing minutes.

D, Robin Jansson, 5 — Jansson is usually rock solid on the back line, but he was a liability in this game. He touched the ball 57 times and completed 86.3% of his 51 passes, including four of his seven long balls. He made three clearances and blocked two shots. His poor grade was due to his contribution to two New England goals. He allowed Matt Polster to get goal side in the 44th minute for the equalizer and stuck his foot out in an ill-advised challenge in the 85th minute, resulting in a game-tying penalty. It was a game the Orlando City captain would rather forget.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6.5 — Schlegel is usually the higher-risk player at center back, but he had a good game. He touched the ball 49 times and completed 91.4% of his 35 passes, including his lone long ball. He also recorded a tackle, a team-high six clearances, and two blocked shots. Most surprisingly, he managed to end the game without an unnecessary booking. Schlegel’s night ended in the 87th minute when he was replaced by Rafael Santos.

D, Alex Freeman, 6.5  — Freeman started at his usual right back position, touching the ball a team-high 66 times. He completed 76.7% of his 43 passes and his lone cross but not his long ball. His lone shot was on target and he had three key passes. The 20-year-old was also active defensively, recording two tackles, two interceptions, and four clearances.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 6 — Angulo only touched the ball 28 times in this game, but his speed caused problems for the New England back line as he pushed into the attack. The left-sided midfielder completed 82.6% of his 23 passes, including two key passes. He didn’t take any shots, because he was mainly on the wing, but he helped defensively with a tackle and two interceptions. Angulo was replaced by Ramiro Enrique in the 74th minute.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — Araujo had 57 touches in this game while completing 91.7% of his 36 passes. He had a key pass but failed to complete either of his two long balls. The defensive midfielder took four shots, putting one on target that forced Aljaz Ivacic into a good save. He nearly scored off a corner kick in the 24th minute, but hit the post. Defensively, Araujo had two tackles and a clearance.

MF, Joran Gerbet, 5.5 — Gerbet had an up and down night, making him difficult to grade. He let Alhassan Yusuf get goal side of him in the 38th minute to score New England’s first goal. But his excellent first touch sent Ojeda on a partial breakaway in the 33rd minute for the Lions’ second goal, and his fearlessness earned a penalty for Orlando City’s third goal. The rookie touched the ball 43 times and completed 88.9% of his 36 passes, including a key pass and one of his two long balls. He didn’t take any shots but added an interception defensively. He probably should get a higher grade for participating in two goals, but I can’t get over the defensive midfielder’s error that might’ve cost the Lions two points. Gerbet was replaced in the 69th minute by Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.

MF, Marco Pasalic, 6.5 — Pasalic had a solid night, touching the ball 39 times and completing 73.9% of his 23 passes. He had two key passes and completed one of his three long balls. He put one of his three shots on target, but his offensive performance will be remembered for his 20th minute shot, when Luis Muriel headed the ball down perfectly for him and the midfielder sent it over the open goal. Despite the miss, it was a good game for the attacking midfielder, who also had an interception on the defensive side.

F, Luis Muriel, 6.5 — Muriel started up top but dropped behind Ojeda as the game progressed. He had 36 touches and completed 73.3% of his 15 passes, including four key passes and three of his four crosses. He should’ve had an assist on Pasalic’s miss, and he should’ve scored, especially in the 68th minute, when he made multiple defenders miss before dribbling the ball into the arms of Ivacic instead of shooting. He added two tackles and would’ve had a higher grade if he had any desire to score.

F, Martin Ojeda, 8.5 (MotM) — There can’t be a question about who the Man of the Match was for this game. In his first league start since April 19, Ojeda led the way. He touched the ball 43 times, completing 84% of his 25 passes with two key passes. He completed two of his five crosses but didn’t connect on his long ball. However, the attacker converted on three of his team-high seven shots, scoring the club’s first hat trick since 2015. His first goal was a thing of beauty, as he rocketed a shot off the bottom of the cross bar, creating no chance for the goalkeeper. The midfielder also took his second goal well and converted the penalty that gave his team the lead in the 55th minute. Defensively, Ojeda added an interception in a clear Man of the Match performance.

Substitutes

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (69’), 5.5 — Thorhallsson came on in the 69th minute for Gerbet in the defensive midfield. He touched the ball 13 times, completing all of his 10 passes, though they were all of the shorter variety. He picked up a yellow card late in the match.

F, Duncan McGuire (73’), 5.5 — McGuire came on for Muriel in the 73rd minute with his team up a goal. He touched the ball only five times, completing all three of his passes with a key pass and his lone cross. His only shot was off target and he didn’t add any defensive stats. He should have had an assist with a good ball into the box for Enrique, who made a mess of the shot, firing it high over the goal. Unfortunately, his game will be remembered for the 90th minute, when Enrique’s shot hit his back while the striker was in an offside position. The ball went in, and the flag went up to disallow the goal that would’ve been the game winner.

F, Ramiro Enrique (74’), 5.5 — Enrique entered the game in the 74th minute for Angulo. He touched the ball 14 times and completed 45.5% of his 11 passes without any key passes or crosses. He took one off-target shot (officially) but had a great chance to score in the 90th minute when he received a pass from Pasalic at the top of the box with no one on him. His shot hit the back of an offside McGuire, spoiling a potential late winner.

D, Rafael Santos (87’), 5.5 — Santos replaced Schlegel in the 87th minute as the Lions brought on a natural left back and moved Brekalo to his usual center back position. Despite coming on late, the 10 minutes of stoppage time gave him plenty of action. He touched the ball 12 times and completed 83.3% of his six passes, including one of his three crosses. He didn’t take any shots and didn’t record any defensive stats as the Lions pushed hard for the late winner that never came. On the defensive end, he got roasted by Luis Diaz Espinoza in the second minute of stoppage time, allowing a wicked shot on goal that Gallese was able to parry away awkwardly.

That’s how I saw Orlando City 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution. Let us know what you thought of the performance in the comment below and don’t forget to vote on your Man of the Match.

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Lion Links: 5/12/25

Lions and Pride each draw, Pride wins 2024 Golden Brick Award of Excellence, MLS weekend recap, and more.

Published

16 hours ago

on

May 12, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida and belated happy Mother’s Day to all you moms out there. I’ve been busy at work and catching up with friends all week. Our Lions and Pride both picked up draws over the weekend, while OCB was off.  We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Draw New England Revolution at Home

Orlando City blew a lead twice and ended up settling for a 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution on Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions got off to a great start as Martin Ojeda scored two goals in the first half. The Revolution replied with two goals to tie the match just before halftime. Ojeda added a penalty kick goal in the second half to secure his first hat trick of his career. It was also the first hat trick for Orlando in a decade, and he joins former Lion Cyle Larin as the only players in club history to score a regular-season hat trick.

However, late in the second half, the Lions conceded a penalty to New England, and Carles Gil converted from the spot to get the equalizer as the teams split the points. The Lions will have a quick turnaround with their next match on Wednesday at home against Charlotte FC.

Pride Draw North Carolina Courage on the Road

The Orlando Pride needed a late equalizer to escape WakeMed Soccer Park with a 1-1 draw against the North Carolina Courage on Saturday. The Courage struck first, but Prisca Chilufya scored her first goal of the NWSL season late in stoppage time to secure a draw and keep Orlando from losing two matches in a row. The Pride grabbed a crucial point on the road and are second in the NWSL standings. The next match for the Orlando Pride will be Friday as they face the Kansas City Current at Inter&Co Stadium.

Orlando Pride Wins 2024 Golden Brick Award of Excellence

The Orlando Pride were named winners of the Downtown Orlando Partnerships 2024 Golden Brick Award of Excellence on Friday for the club’s historic 2024 NWSL Championship season and downtown victory parade. The Pride broke the league record for the most points (60), most wins in a season (18), and most clean sheets (13), while finishing the 2024 season unbeaten at home. Orlando Pride President of Business Operations Jarrod Dillon expressed his thoughts on Pride winning this award.

“On behalf of our entire Club, I’d like to thank the Downtown Orlando Partnership and its Board of Directors for selecting our organization for this incredible award,” said Orlando Pride President of Business Operations, Jarrod Dillon. “We are incredibly honored to receive this award — a testament to the passion, dedication, and excellence that define our team. Our Club is proud to represent this city, and we hope every Orlando resident shares in this moment of pride. There’s no place we’d rather call home than downtown Orlando — the heart of our community and now the home of the best women’s soccer team in the United States.”

MLS Weekend Recap

The weekend’s slate of Major League Soccer matches ended with some notable results. Minnesota United cruised past Inter Miami with a 4-1 win. The Chicago Fire, FC Cincinnati, San Diego FC, and Nashville SC all won 2-1 matches over Atlanta United, Austin FC, St. Louis City, and Charlotte FC, respectively. Toronto FC defeated D.C. United 2-0 at home, while the San Jose Earthquakes beat the Colorado Rapids 2-0 on the road. Prince Osei Owusu scored the lone goal as CF Montreal beat New York City FC 1-0 and secured its first win of the season. Santiago Moreno scored a late goal in the second half as the Portland Timbers defeated Sporting Kansas City 1-0. Albert Rusnak scored twice as the Seattle Sounders beat the Houston Dynamo 3-1. FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake ended in a 1-1 draw, while the Philadelphia Union and Columbus Crew match ended in a 2-2 draw. The LA Galaxy remain winless through 12 matches this season after getting crushed 7-0 by the New York Red Bulls in a rematch of last year’s MLS Cup final. On Sunday, Brian White scored twice as the Vancouver Whitecaps and LAFC match ended in a 2-2 draw.

Free Kicks

  • Check out this video on Orlando City’s social media pages featuring some players giving their moms a surprise phone call on Mother’s Day.
  • Orlando Pride defender Kylie Nadaner completed 108 passes on Saturday in their match against the North Carolina Courage, which is the most in Pride history.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. New England Revolution: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 3-3 draw against the Revolution.

Published

2 days ago

on

May 11, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City returned home and returned to league play after a resounding midweek victory in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. The Lions faced one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference heading into the matchday, as the New England Revolution entered Saturday having won four straight Major League Soccer matches in a row and five straight in all competitions. As the rain fell at Inter&Co Stadium, so did any hopes of a clean sheet for either side as the match saw six goals in total, resulting in a somewhat disappointing 3-3 draw and a splitting of the matchday points. What follows are my five takeaways for the match.

Welcome Back, Martin Ojeda

Head Coach Oscar Pareja inserted Designated Player Martin Ojeda back into the starting 11, and the decision paid off in spades for the Lions, as Ojeda was the Orlando City offense on the night. A first-half brace from the Argentine saw Orlando City take control of the match a little after the half-hour mark. Ojeda was all over the field, and for his first goal, the midfielder fired a rocket blast off the bottom of the crossbar and in, which gave Revolution goalkeeper Aljaz Ivacic little reaction time and almost no chance to attempt a save. For his second, just nine minutes later, Ojeda took a beautiful pass from Joran Gerbet, into a 1-v-1 situation and did well to remain composed before picking out the inside of the right post. It was a great start for Ojeda, which saw Orlando City jump out to a 2-0 lead. His third goal of the match, which we’ll get to in a moment, came from the spot in the second half. Ojeda may have scored the team’s first hat trick since 2015, but he led the team with seven shot attempts and any of the other four could also have found the net on another night, as the Lions’ No. 10 found the holes in the Revolution defense all night.

All Good Things Must Come to an End

I had hoped to see Orlando City ride its club-best 653-minute shutout streak across all competitions for a little bit longer than a paltry five minutes after Ojeda’s second goal. If Orlando City fans had a nickel for every time an MLS player earned their first career goal against the Lions, we would all have a lot of nickels. Against the Revolution, another player opened his MLS account when Alhassan Yusuf ran onto a ball sent back across goal and calmly slotted it into the net from point-blank range. The goal cut the lead to one, pulling the Revs back into the game. To make matters worse, New England was able to level the match just before halftime with a Matt Polster header off a short corner. Polster wasn’t covered nearly well enough on the set piece. Orlando City also ended New England’s long streak without conceding, as Ojeda’s first goal Saturday night halted the Revs’ streak at 418 consecutive minutes.

Correcting a Mistake

Ten minutes into the second half, the Lions regained the lead from the penalty spot. Referee Rubiel Vazquez and the assistant referee on the east sideline both appeared well positioned to see Gerbet get kicked in the head by the high boot of Mamadou Fofana, but somehow both missed the call. Gerbet went down in the box with an apparent head injury but it took Vazquez an unacceptable amount of time to stop the match to check on the player. Once he did, there was a longer-than-necessary delay for the video assistant referee to check the play before sending Vazquez to the monitor for another look. The review correctly determined that Fofana fouled Gerbet. Ojeda stepped up to the spot and sent Ivacic the wrong way, completing his first career hat trick and Orlando City’s first hatty since Cyle Larin scored three goals on the road in a win over the Red Bulls on Sept. 25, 2015. Ojeda became the first player to notch a home hat trick in the club’s MLS era.

A Gift for the Opposition

After taking the 3-2 lead, Orlando City found was in control of the match for a good half-hour of game action despite the Revolution increasing their pressure as they hunted for the equalizer once again. The Revs found the reprieve they were searching for in the 85th minute after a head-scratching challenge from captain Robin Jansson resulted in a gifted penalty kick opportunity that Carlos Gil took full advantage of. There was no immediate need for Jansson to stick his foot out, as the attacking player for New England was running away from goal near the end-line. The contact seemed soft, but Vazquez pointed directly to the spot. This time, there was no trip to the monitor for a second look, as Orlando City continues to see inconsistencies within games on review decisions. While we’re not keeping any official records on video review, this seems like at least half a dozen times in Pareja’s time in Orlando when the match referee has gone to the monitor for one close play and not the other, with either one or both of those decisions ultimately benefitting the opposition. Either way, Jansson has to be aware of the situation and make a better decision in that moment when protecting a late lead.

Brekalo Settling In

Defender David Brekalo has struggled to stay healthy since his arrival in Orlando, but Saturday night was part of a recent stretch of games in which the Slovenian international has looked more and more comfortable. Still playing as a hybrid left back/left center back, not only did Brekalo stuff the stat sheet defensively with two tackles, an interception, three clearances, and a blocked shot, but he’s also starting to show more confidence in getting into the attack. He was an unfortunate in the 48th minute not to have scored a vital goal for the Lions. He started the play in the back, dribbled forward past a defender and passed, continuing his run up the pitch. He was rewarded with a return pass in the final third, taking the ball up the left side of the box and firing a shot that was ever so slightly deflected, sending it off the woodwork instead of into the net. Although he was partially culpable on the first New England goal — his sliding lunge was a tad late, allowing Ilay Feingold to get to Ignatius Ganago’s cross through the box and took him out of position to prevent the cross back in from Feingold to Yusuf — it was a good night overall for Brekalo, who seems to be finding his form. He moved to right center back late in the game when Pareja brought on Rafael Santos, hoping more attack-minded players could find a late game winner.

Those are my takeaways from a match that produced more goals than Orlando City fans have been seeing in most recent matches but didn’t produce a better result. What stood out to you? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below, and as always, vamos Orlando!

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