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Orlando City

Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

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10 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/22/25

Pedro Gallese earns recognition, Americans in midweek action, English promotion update, and more.

Published

5 hours ago

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April 22, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well it wasn’t the worst weekend that Orlando soccer has ever had, but it certainly wasn’t the best either. Fortunately, all three of Orlando’s teams will be back in action soon, so there’s no need to dwell on the past too much. Let’s take a moment to wish a happy birthday to the Orlando Pride’s Brianna Martinez, as well as to Kaká! Now, it’s time to turn our attention to today’s links.

Pedro Gallese Earns Weekly Recognition

Pedro Gallese kept a third clean sheet in a row and Orlando City’s third clean sheet of the year in the team’s scoreless draw on the road against CF Montreal. In recognition of his efforts during the match, Gallese was named to the bench of the latest edition of the MLS Team of the Matchday. El Pulpo made six saves to blank a Montreal team that intently searched for a breakthrough, and made a couple of truly excellent second half stops that kept the score level. Congrats to Pedro and keep up the good work!

Americans in Midweek Action

A number of Americans will be playing games during the working week, and there are some big matches to keep an eye on. The main event is on Wednesday, when Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan face Inter Milan in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinal, which is tied 1-1 after the first leg. Also on Wednesday, Chris Richards, Matt Turner, and Crystal Palace will play Arsenal in the Premier League. Thursday then has Malik Tillman, Richy Ledezma, and PSV Eindhoven playing FC Twente in the Eredivisie, while Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis play Valladolid in La Liga action.

English Promotion Update

Following results in the EFL Championship on Monday, Leeds United and Burnley have both secured promotion to the Premier League for next season. Both teams won their respective games and are each on 94 points, and with just two matches left, third-placed Sheffield United has no way to catch them. The other promoted side will be determined after the promotion playoffs, which would feature Sheffield United, Sunderland, Bristol City, and Coventry City if the season ended today. Meanwhile in League One, Wrexham’s 2-1 victory over Blackpool meant the Dragons retook second place and the automatic promotion spot that comes with it. If they beat Charlton on Sunday and Wycombe Wanderers drop points against Leyton Orient, then Wrexham would secure promotion to the Championship.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

Transfer rumors continue to fly thick and fast as we approach the business end of most European seasons, so let’s take a look at a few items worth catching up on. Manchester United is said to be keen on signing 17-year-old Argentine Franco Mastantuono from River Plate. Liverpool is reportedly interested in signing winger Ademola Lookman from Atalanta, although the Reds would likely face competition from several other Premier League teams. Finally, Bayer Leverkusen CEO Fernando Carro has revealed that he and Xabi Alonso have a gentleman’s agreement that if a team the Spaniard used to play for is interested in hiring him as its coach, then the club will not hinder the process. The statement has led to renewed speculation that Alonso will be named Real Madrid coach if Carlo Ancelotti leaves in the summer.

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That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City’s Focus On Youth Development Showing In The First Team

Orlando City is seeing more and more players promoted from the academy, through OCB, and into the first team.

Published

1 day ago

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April 21, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Orlando City began its academy in the USL Pro days with the goal of developing players for the first team. It took nearly a decade to begin seeing youth development bear fruit, but it’s becoming apparent early in the 2025 season.

Prior to 2019, Orlando City signed four players to Homegrown Player contracts. Tommy Redding, Tyler Turner, and Harrison Heath never played in the academy and the other, Mason Stajduhar, developed primarily at Chargers Soccer Club in Tampa.

Orlando City signed arguably its first true Homegrown Player when the club inked Benji Michel to a first-team contract. The following off-season, the Lions added David Loera and Jordan Bender. Mikey Halliday signed in July 2020. All of the players came through the academy before signing first-team deals. 

So what changed?

Part of it was the growth of the academy. It takes several years to begin producing players. Another major factor was the hiring of Luiz Muzzi on Dec. 18, 2019. Muzzi came from FC Dallas, a club known for promoting from its academy. He brought in Ricardo Moreira, who shares his vision of developing young talent for the first team.

And it’s not only Muzzi and Moreira. Former Orlando City head coach Adrian Heath rarely attended OCB games. James O’Connor only went to one, and that was to see his former teammate, Dennis Chin, who was playing with the opposing Richmond Kickers. The Orlando City boss left when Chin came off.

Oscar Pareja and other first-team coaches have been at several games, far more than their predecessors. That’s largely to do with the games’ location at the training facility, which is another factor in OCB’s development. The 2019 team trained over 40 miles away from the first team. The move to Kissimmee has the first team, OCB, and the development academy under one roof. It’s another display of the club’s more recent commitment to youth development.

Undoubtedly, the transformation of OCB under Muzzi and Moreira has also impacted Homegrown talent coming through. The team’s 2016 and 2017 rosters were primarily made up of first-team reserves and USL lifers. The 2019 team had many players from the Soccer Institute at Montverde Academy (SIMA), many of which were young but ineligible for Homegrown status.

Things began to change in 2020. The roster shifted to include more academy players and that’s only grown. This year, 15 OCB players came out of the academy, two were drafted, and eight are outside signings on MLS NEXT Pro deals. Other than Jhon Solis and first-team goalkeeper Carlos Mercado, everyone to appear for the team is 23 years old or younger.

The focus on giving OCB spots to academy graduates is now seen in the first team. Players like Thomas Williams, Javier Otero, Alex Freeman, Colin Guske, and Gustavo Caraballo have been regulars on the MLS team sheet. Injuries to first-team regulars has seen them receiving regular playing time.

The poster boy for this change is Freeman. The right back came out of the academy and spent a couple of years at OCB before signing his first-team contract. He won the starting role early in the 2025 regular season.

Many players joined the club later in their development, but we’re seeing some come through having been nearly fully developed at the Orlando City Academy. Guske and Caraballo joined at 13 years old, the youngest age group of the development academy. Both signed first-team deals for this year.

The midfield duo continue to play with OCB most games but are also on the first-team roster almost weekly. The only reason they weren’t in Montreal Saturday night is because they were helping the club’s U-18 team reach (and then win) the Generation Adidas Cup final.

With Muzzi and Moreira at the helm, more players continue to come through. U-18 captain and OCB starter Jackson Platts appears to be well on his way to a first-team contract. So does fellow U-18 and OCB starting forward Justin Ellis.

This past weekend saw another academy product make his first-team debut. Zakaria Taifi took over at right back for OCB when Freeman moved up to the first team this year. Signing a short-term deal Saturday, he came on as a late substitute to help the 10-man Lions see out the scoreless draw.

First-team absences have provided opportunities for many young players. If several weren’t at the Generation Adidas Cup, it could be more. Regardless, the last few years have shown a big step forward for the club.

The shift in recent years is more than the pride of seeing local kids representing the hometown team. They’ve been an essential part of the 2025 campaign. The club hasn’t had to use a short bench or dip into outside emergency signings. Instead, the Lions call up kids they know, making it easier to seamlessly place them into the team.

There will be times where several injuries will occur to experienced players. Orlando City is prepared for this more now than ever before, and it’s because of the players coming through the academy and playing with OCB. We’re already seeing it early in this 2025 season.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/21/25

Another scoreless draw for Orlando City, a home loss for the Pride, a championship for the OCSC U-18 squad, and more.

Published

1 day ago

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April 21, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope you all had a great holiday weekend with family and friends. I managed to watch a few soccer games while work kept me busy. Our Lions picked up another draw for the third week in a row, the Pride lost, and OCB was off this weekend. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Draw CF Montreal on the Road

Orlando City and CF Montreal split the points in a scoreless draw at Stade Saputo on Saturday. It’s the third consecutive week that the Lions could not get a win with another scoreless draw. It’s the second straight match that Orlando had to play down a man as Rafael Santos was sent off in the second half after receiving a second yellow card. Still, the Lions extended their unbeaten run to six matches and are seventh in the Eastern Conference table with 13 points. After the match, Major League Soccer issued a statement after being informed a fan used discriminatory language towards a player during the match.

Orlando City will return to Inter&Co Stadium Saturday to take on Atlanta United.

Orlando City Signs Two Players to Short-Term Deals

Before Saturday’s match against CF Montreal, Orlando City announced the club had signed defender Zakaria Taifi and midfielder Riyon Tori to short-term contracts. Both players were on the bench for Saturday’s match. Tori did not play, but Taifi came off the bench late in the second half to make his MLS debut. Tori has played with OCB and has made three appearances. Taifi has made 42 appearances, starting 21 matches for OCB, scoring one goal and adding three assists.

Orlando City Signs Four Assistant Coaches to New Contracts

Orlando City announced on Friday that the club has renewed the contracts of First Assistant Coach Diego Torres, Second Assistant Coach Martin Perelman, Goalkeeper Coach Cesar Baena, and Fitness & Performance Coach Fabian Bazan. This news comes just days after the club announced that Head Coach Oscar Pareja will remain with the Lions under a new three-year contract through the 2028 MLS season. Together, the coaching staff has played a key part in the recent success of the Lions over the last five seasons, making five consecutive MLS Playoff appearances, two appearances in the Concacaf Champions Cup, and winning the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. The Lions also set club records for wins and points, scoring 308 goals across all competitions with a plus-44 goal differential in 202 competitive matches.

Pride Fall to Washington Spirit at Home

The Orlando Pride fell to the Washington Spirit 1-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Saturday to suffer their first loss of the season. The Pride dominated most of the match, but in the 63rd minute, Pride goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse gave the ball away in front of the goal, and Gift Monday capitalized to score the winning goal for the Spirit. Late in the second half, it looked like the Pride had scored the equalizer; however, after video review, it was determined that Kylie Nadaner backed into Aubrey Kingsbury on the play, impeding the goalkeeper from catching the ball, and the tying goal was waved off. With the Kansas City Current’s win over the Houston Dash over the weekend, Orlando drops to second in the NWSL table. The Pride will return to action Friday at Inter&Co Stadium to face Angel City FC.

Orlando City U-18 Team Wins Generation Adidas Cup Championship

The Orlando City U-18 and U-16 squads played over the weekend in playoff matches in the Generation Adidas Cup at IMG Academy. In the quarterfinals on Friday, Omar Robbana scored the lone goal in the U-18 squad’s 1-0 win over Real Salt Lake.

The U-18 squad followed that up by defeating Santos Laguna 3-0 in the semifinals. Justin Ellis scored twice and Gustavo Caraballo added a goal.

On Sunday, Caraballo scored the winning goal in extra time to seal a 2-1 victory over the Colorado Rapids in the U-18 Championship final.

On Friday, the U-16 team defeated Bayern Munich 1-0 in the quarterfinals.

The U-16 squad defeated the New England Revolution 4-3 on penalties after a scoreless draw in the semifinals on Saturday.

The U-16 squad’s run for a championship trophy came to an end with a 3-1 loss to Inter Miami in the U-16 Championship final on Sunday.

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That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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