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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

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7 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Releases Full 2025 Preseason Schedule

The Lions will face three MLS sides, a Brazilian Serie A club, a USL Championship team, and a Canadian Premier League side this preseason.

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5 hours ago

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January 24, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

On the eve of Orlando City’s first preseason friendly of the team’s 2025 camp — and 11 days into training — the club has released its full schedule for the remainder of the preseason. The Lions will play six matches, calling two of them “friendlies” and the other four “scrimmages,” but they all amount to competitive minutes for the squad ahead of the 2025 MLS regular season.

Two of the games are open to the general public, including Saturday’s FC Series friendly against Atletico Mineiro and the Feb. 14 preseason finale against Inter Miami at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. In addition, season ticket members can access a preseason scrimmage against CF Montreal on Feb. 8. Club staff will reach out to season ticket members with the details for that game. The other three scrimmages will be closed door.

The preseason schedule is similar this year to what the club has had for the last several years under Oscar Pareja, with mostly closed scrimmages and a mixture of MLS and other assorted competition.

After facing the Brazil Serie A side on Saturday, the Lions will head to Mexico for a week of training and team bonding, with one scrimmage against Forge FC from the Canadian Premier League. Orlando City will play three MLS clubs in the preseason, along with one team each from the Canadian Premier League and the USL Championship.

Orlando City will kick off its 2025 regular season at home against the Philadelphia Union at Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday, Feb. 22 at 7:30 p.m.

2025 Orlando City Preseason Schedule

  • Saturday, Jan. 25 — Preseason friendly vs. Atletico Mineiro at Inter&Co Stadium
  • Sunday, Jan. 26 — Preseason camp opens in Mexico
  • Tuesday, Jan. 28 — Preseason scrimmage vs. Forge FC (Closed Door)
  • Wednesday, Feb. 5 — Preseason scrimmage vs. Atlanta United (Closed Door)
  • Saturday, Feb. 8 — Preseason scrimmage vs. CF Montreal (Season Ticket Members Exclusive Match)
  • Tuesday, Feb. 11 — Preseason scrimmage vs. Rhode Island FC (Closed Door)
  • Friday, Feb. 14 — Preseason friendly vs. Inter Miami at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/24/25

Cesar Araujo will reportedly stay in Orlando, USMNT takeaways, MLS transfer news, and much more.

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7 hours ago

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January 24, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! It should be a pretty decent weekend with plenty of soccer to enjoy both in Orlando and abroad. Orlando City’s first preseason game is Saturday against Atletico Mineiro at Inter&Co Stadium. While I won’t be in attendance, I’m looking forward to learning how they do. But for now, let’s jump into today’s links!

Cesar Araujo Will Reportedly Stay in Orlando

There have been rumors and reports swirling around regarding midfielder Cesar Araujo leaving Orlando City this off-season. However, the 23-year-old will reportedly stay in Orlando for the 2025 season according to Tom Bogert. Uruguayan club Nacional has reportedly been trying to sign Araujo while he has a year left on his contract.

Sources: Cesar Araujo to stay at Orlando City.Nacional tried to sign him this winter but plan is for Araujo to stay. One year left on his contract and Orlando will still work on a new contract but know the team is better if he stays. Prioritizing 2025 over small transfer fee.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2025-01-24T01:07:39.303Z

It makes all the sense in the world for Orlando to want to keep Araujo in the center of its midfield for 2025. He’s been incredible since joining Orlando back in 2022 and has been integral to the club’s success in recent years. Clubs were always going to come knocking for Araujo’s talents, but I expect it would take a hefty offer for the Lions to let him go before his contract is up.

Takeaways From USMNT January Camp

While the United States Men’s National Team’s January camp usually isn’t too impactful, this year’s edition had some extra intrigue due to some standout performances across the two friendly wins. Zack Steffen had a statement game against Costa Rica, making a few sensational saves to secure a clean sheet. He needed a game like that to stay in the mix for the starting job after a rough season with the Colorado Rapids. Striker Patrick Agyemang played his first two USMNT games this month and scored in both, making the most of his opportunity. Diego Luna taking an elbow to the face and coming back out to assist on the team’s first goal against Costa Rica is also the kind of moment that could earn him more looks in the future.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

MLS teams other than Orlando City continue to make moves ahead of the 2025 season. The exodus from FC Dallas rolls on, as Alan Velasco was officially transferred to Boca Juniors in Argentina for a reported $12 million transfer fee. Dallas also traded center back Nkosi Tafari to LAFC in exchange for $300,000 in 2026 General Allocation Money and an international roster slot.

The Karol Swiderski era in Charlotte is over, as the club transferred him to Panathinaikos for a reported transfer fee of $2 million. Real Salt Lake added a young striker, signing 20-year-old Ariath Piol from MacArthur FC in Australia. Nashville SC signed American goalkeeper Brian Schwake from CD Castellon in Spain’s second division to provide more depth behind Joe Willis. Austin FC’s busy off-season continued by signing Zan Kolmanic to a new contract through 2026. The club is also reportedly closer to signing forward Myrto Uzuni for a club-record fee.

Europa League First Phase Nears Conclusion

Lazio is the only team to guarantee a spot in the Europa League’s round of 16 so far, doing so after a 3-1 win over Real Sociedad. English clubs Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur edged closer to securing a spot. A late winner from Bruno Fernandes gave United a 2-1 victory against Rangers, while Tottenham beat Hoffenheim 3-2 thanks to a brace from Heung-Min Son. The upset of the round belonged to Latvian club FK RFS, which took down Ajax in a 1-0 win at home. Eintracht Frankfurt, Union Saint-Gilloise, and Midtjylland also picked up wins this week. This phase of the tournament will wrap up with 18 games on Thursday.

Free Kicks

  • Bay FC bought out Deyna Castellanos’ contract, with the midfielder joining the Portland Thorns as a free agent soon after.
  • After a vote approving funds to repair Al Lang Stadium, the Tampa Bay Rowdies announced that they will play there for their upcoming USL Championship season.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/23/25

Orlando City signs Thomas Williams to new contract, Orlando Pride schedule revealed, USMNT wins against Costa Rica, and more.

Published

1 day ago

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January 23, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

I hope you all are staying warm as we deal with cold weather across Florida. It’s at least been nice to break out some of my heavier blankets and forgotten hot cocoa packets I’ve had stored away. My cat has also been curling up next to me more, which is always a plus. Still, not shivering while waiting for my car to warm up would be great. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Thomas Williams Signs New Orlando City Contract

Orlando City center back Thomas Williams signed a new contract with the club that lasts through 2026, with an option for 2027 as well. Williams joined the club’s academy back in 2015 and became the youngest Homegrown Player in club history when he signed a first-team contract at 16 years old in 2021. The 20-year-old hasn’t featured much for the first team, and he’ll likely spend most of this year with Orlando City B for consistent playing time. Hopefully Williams can take a step forward in his development and provide the Lions some helpful depth at center back in the event of injuries.

Orlando Pride 2025 Season Schedule Unveiled

The NWSL announced its 2025 season schedule Wednesday, and the Orlando Pride will start their title defense season at home against the Chicago Red Stars on March 14. Their first road game will be the following weekend on March 23 against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Decision Day returns to the schedule this year, with all 14 clubs in action on Nov. 2. The Pride will close out their regular season at home that day against the Seattle Reign, with the postseason set to begin on Nov. 7. There’s also a break in the schedule in July, with no regular-season games scheduled due to international tournaments like the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and Copa America Femenina.

USMNT Shuts Out Costa Rica in Orlando

The United States Men’s National Team beat Costa Rica 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando Wednesday night to stay perfect at the home of the Lions and Pride at 7-0-0. Goalkeeper Zack Steffen truly earned his clean sheet, coming up with some great saves to deny Costa Rica. It was also a solid attacking performance from the Yanks, and Patrick Agyemang put a bow on what’s been a great month for him with his second goal in as many games. Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino has some time to assess things before the USMNT plays Panama in the Concacaf Nations League semifinals on March 20

Keeping Up With MLS Transfer News

San Diego FC added another Designated Player ahead of its inaugural season, signing Danish winger Anders Dreyer from Anderlecht for a transfer fee reportedly near $5 million. He recorded 31 goals and 23 assists in 87 appearances across all competitions for Anderlecht and joins San Diego on a three-year deal. Charlotte FC officially added Wilfried Zaha on loan from Galatasaray. He’ll occupy a DP spot and the loan lasts through Jan. 16, 2026, with an option to extend it through June of that year as well.

LAFC made a trade with its rival to strengthen its midfield, acquiring Mark Delgado from the LA Galaxy in exchange for $400,000 in General Allocation Money. The Portland Timbers signed Venezuelan forward Kevin Kelsy from Shakhtar Donetsk as an MLS U22 Initiative player, with FC Cincinnati receiving GAM for his discovery rights. Real Salt Lake, which signed Mason Stajduhar from Orlando City earlier this month, continued to make changes to its goalkeeping group. The club signed veteran goalkeeper Rafael Cabral as a free agent and transferred 19-year-old American Gavin Beavers to Brondby IF in Denmark.

UEFA Champions League Roundup

The penultimate round of the UEFA Champions League’s league phase wrapped up this week. Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City 4-2 in the heavyweight matchup of the round, with all six goals coming in the second half. Joao Neves gave PSG the lead in the 78th minute before Goncalo Ramos put the game on ice in stoppage time. City now needs to win its final game against Club Brugge on Wednesday in order to advance.

Real Madrid cruised to a 5-1 win against RB Salzburg to advance, with both Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. scoring braces. Celtic also booked its spot in the next round after a 1-0 win against Young Boys. Feyenoord pulled off an upset by winning 3-0 against Bayern Munich as well. Elsewhere in the tournament, AC Milan won 1-0 at home against Girona, Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0, and RB Leipzig did well in a 2-1 victory over Sporting CP.

Free Kicks

  • American goalkeeper Michelle Betos announced her retirement from professional soccer after a career that included winning the 2016 NWSL Shield with the Portland Thorns and the 2023 NWSL Championship with Gotham. Betos was also named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year with the Thorns in 2015.
  • Arsenal and Chelsea are among the multiple clubs reportedly keeping an eye on American forward Trinity Rodman, whose contract with the Washington Spirit ends after this year.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1882171400481542482

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a great Thursday and rest of your week!

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