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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

Published

12 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were MartĂ­n Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/24/25

Orlando City’s upward aspirations, Tim Weah reportedly set for transfer, Club World Cup roundup, and more.

Published

16 hours ago

on

June 24, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. We’ve got a busy week ahead of us with the Club World Cup approaching the end of the group stage, OCB at home on Wednesday, and Orlando City back in action with a pair of games. That means we have plenty to talk about, so let’s get straight into today’s links.

Orlando City’s Lofty Goals

Kyle Smith took some time after training on Monday to speak to the media and shed some light on where OCSC is at right now. The utility player was candid in saying he believes this year’s team is the best one he’s seen since he’s been with the club, and that’s saying something considering he’s the longest-tenured player on the team. Smith said the team is focused on climbing higher in the standings and that the two recent breaks will help the team do just that. He emphasized the importance of handling extra time off between games the right way by making sure the players are taking care of their bodies, getting in the gym, and recovering afterwards. That sort of professionalism paid off in the 1-0 win over the Colorado Rapids, so hopefully the same is true of Wednesday’s game against St. Louis City.

Tim Weah Reportedly on the Move

Nottingham Forest has reportedly agreed a deal with Juventus to sign Tim Weah and fellow Juve player Samuel Mbangula for roughly €22 million. That being said, personal terms have not yet been agreed upon with Weah, and that will likely take some time, since he’s playing for them at the Club World Cup, and the Italian side is probably keen to minimize outside distractions. Weah broke out with Lille during a four-season spell with the French side, earning a move to Juventus in 2023 as a result.

Club World Cup Roundup

The Club World Cup continues to roll on, as the tournament entered its final round of group stage games on Monday. Atletico Madrid became the first big name to exit the competition, as it beat Botafogo 1-0 to finish level with the Brazilians on six points but will be going home due to having worse goal difference. Atletico needed to win by at least three in order to overtake Botafogo in the standings and might have managed it if not for some poor finishing. In Group B’s other game, Paris Saint-Germain took down the Seattle Sounders 2-0 to finish top of the group. Seattle was given a brutal draw and accounted itself as well as can be expected, but ultimately, the Sounders exit the competition without picking up a point.

Club World Cup Takeaways

Speaking of the Club World Cup, what are some of the impressions so far of the expanded tournament? There have been plenty of good things, as teams have been taking it seriously with strong lineups, and barring the outlier that is Auckland City, no one team has been consistently getting shelled. On the other hand, making the jump from six teams to 32 simply feels like too much too soon, and that’s probably contributed to fluctuating levels of interest from local fans. High ticket prices and games starting in the heat of the day haven’t helped much either, as weather conditions have been a recurring concern among both fans and players. The competition is still a net positive overall, but there are certainly some things to learn from and improve upon next time around.

Free Kicks

  • Check out some of the scenes from the Lions’ training session on Monday.

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/23/25

Pride fall to Racing Louisville, Seb Hines and Giles Barnes share insight on path to success in Orlando, USMNT defeats Haiti, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

June 23, 2025

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been busy working and catching up with friends over the past week. Before we get started, let’s wish a belated happy birthday to Orlando Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter, who turned 41 on Saturday. The Pride was the lone team in action over the weekend, while the Lions and OCB were off. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Pride Fall at Racing Louisville

The Orlando Pride fell to Racing Louisville 2-0 Friday at Lynn Family Stadium. Arin Wright scored the opening goal in the first half, and former Pride midfielder Taylor Flint converted a penalty kick for Racing Louisville. The Pride struggled offensively and failed to capitalize on their scoring chances. Orlando’s struggles in Louisville continue, as the club is winless in five matches at Lynn Family Stadium. The Pride will be on a long break, and their next match will be Aug. 3, taking on the Utah Royals at Inter&Co Stadium.

Seb Hines, Giles Barnes Share Insight on Path to Success in Orlando

Orlando Pride Head Coach Seb Hines and Assistant Coach Giles Barnes were featured in an interview in The Guardian. Both Hines and Barnes shared insight into their longtime friendship, which began with playing in English youth international camps, their different paths to playing in Major League Soccer, and how they became involved in coaching. Hines discussed his time as interim manager of the Pride in 2022 and how he brought in Barnes to help change the club’s culture. Hines and Barnes helped change the perception of the club and led the Pride to winning both the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship last season.

USMNT Defeats Haiti to Win Group D in Gold Cup

The U.S. Men’s National Team defeated Haiti 2-1 Sunday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, in their final match in the group stage of the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup. The USMNT finished atop its group with three wins and nine points. Orlando City defender Alex Freeman made his third consecutive start and played 90 minutes.

Malik Tillman scored the opening goal 10 minutes into the match to give the USMNT the early lead. Haiti tied the match not long after Tillman’s goal. In the second half, Patrick Agyemang pulled the USMNT back in front. The USMNT advances to the quarterfinals as the group winner and will play its next match Sunday against the Group A runner-up which was the late game Sunday night and had yet to conclude as of this writing.

Club World Cup Weekend Recap

Another weekend of matches from the FIFA Club World Cup is in the books. On Friday, Benfica crushed Auckland City FC 6-0, while Flamengo beat Chelsea 3-1. LAFC was eliminated from advancing to the knockout round after a 1-0 defeat to ES Tunis. Bayern Munich edged Boca Juniors 2-1. On Saturday, Borussia Dortmund defeated Mamelodi Sundowns 4-3. Inter Milan needed a late stoppage-time winning goal from Valentin Carboni to edge Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1. Fluminense beat Ulsan HD 4-2, and River Plate and Monterrey ended in a scoreless draw. On Sunday, Juventus cruised to a 4-1 win over Wydad Casablanca. Xabi Alonso secured his first win as manager of Real Madrid with a 3-1 victory against Pachuca. Red Bull Salzburg and Al-Hilal played to a scoreless draw, with Manchester City playing Al-Ain in the late match Sunday. Today’s matches feature Atletico Madrid facing Botafogo, the Seattle Sounders hosting Paris Saint-Germain, FC Porto vs. Al Ahly, and Inter Miami taking on Palmeiras.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando Pride midfielder Ally Lemos and forward Simone Jackson have been called-up to the U-23 U.S. Women’s National Team. The U-23 camp will be led by Orlando Pride Assistant Coach Yolanda Thomas.

USL Championship side San Antonio FC has signed former Orlando City defender Abdi Salim to a 25-day contract.

San Diego Wave winger Maria Sanchez has reportedly reach an agreement to return to her former club, Tigres of Liga MX Femenil, on a four-year contract.

Paul Pogba is reportedly set to return to playing soccer and has signed a two-year contract with Ligue 1 side AS Monaco.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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Opinion

Orlando City Has Been Better than Expected Halfway Through the Season

While there was plenty to worry about at the start of the season, Orlando has had a good first half of 2025.

Published

5 days ago

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June 20, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

With 18 matches in the books, we’ve moved just past the halfway point of the 2025 Major League Soccer season, and based off my feelings before Orlando City played its opening game of the season, the Lions have performed above expectations so far. There were plenty of valid reasons to be concerned heading into the year. Orlando had sold its all-time leading goal scorer, and there were questions about whether he’d been adequately replaced. There were worries about depth at multiple positions, and the defense was coming off an uncharacteristically poor year. Here we are though, with the Lions sitting fifth in the Eastern Conference, just three points out of second place and seven points out of first. So how did we get to this point?

For one thing, Marco Pasalic has been much better than I (and I think a lot of other people) expected him to be. The Croatian has six goals and four assists across 18 matches, and is second on the team in both categories. He scored 10 goals in 49 appearances in the Croatian first division before coming to Orlando and was extremely one-footed, which was enough evidence to sow real doubt about whether he could adequately replace the impact of Facundo Torres.

So far, it’s mostly been so good. His direct style of play is a good complement to the styles of Martin Ojeda and Luis Muriel, and he’s largely hit the ground running in a league that can be difficult to adapt to. It hasn’t been perfect, as he’s still very one-footed, and can sometimes disappear if he’s stringently man marked, but on the whole there’s been much more good than bad.

Speaking of Ojeda and Muriel, they’ve also had strong years. Ojeda in particular has continued his great second half of the 2024 season and has nine goals and five assists in 18 games to show for it. He looks fast, confident, and decisive and is a far cry from the player who struggled frequently during his first year as a Lion. Muriel has cooled off a little after a scorching start to 2025, but he still has six goals and three assists in 18 matches. He looks vastly improved from last year, when he looked a little off the pace of play and quickly lost the starting striker role. He still has a tendency to not be as selfish as he needs to be in front of goal, but he’s been much better than 2024.

I mentioned depth being a big concern, and not just at one position. At the beginning of the season Orlando City was, and arguably still is, thin at striker, center back, defensive midfield, and fullback. Duncan McGuire was injured to start the year and is now injured again, leaving Orlando with two true strikers in Muriel and Ramiro Enrique. There was no true backup left back, only one reliable backup center back, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson starting at right back meant that defensive midfield depth consisted of rookie Joran Gerbet and the Swiss army knife that is Kyle Smith.

Things have mostly worked out though. David Brekalo has supplanted Rafael Santos, meaning the Brazilian is now a proven backup option at the position, and Smith has filled in there as well. That means that in games in which Rodrigo Schlegel or Robin Jansson are unavailable, Brekalo fills in at center back, Santos starts at left back, and Smith is the backup for both positions, so it isn’t a flawless system. Gerbet has been playing better and better and got some valuable minutes when Eduard Atuesta and Cesar Araujo were unavailable. His emergence has been a crucial piece of the puzzle this year. So too has the rise of Alex Freeman, as his locking down the right back role has allowed Thorhallsson to fill in at defensive midfield, attacking midfield, and right back. The situation isn’t perfect, as a couple untimely injuries to the wrong guys would leave the Lions looking pretty threadbare, but so far it’s just about worked.

Another big concern was the defense. The Lions conceded 50 goals in the regular season last year, which was tied for the second-most of any Eastern Conference playoff team and fourth-most of any playoff team. With no defensive signings and the aforementioned depth concerns, there were plenty of reasons to worry about Orlando’s ability to keep the ball out of the back of the net.

Things have looked much better in 2025, though. The 22 goals OCSC has conceded are the fifth-fewest in the league, and Pedro Gallese’s eight clean sheets are tied for most in the league. Aside from a few egregious defensive performances against the Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United, and the Chicago Fire, things have mostly been tidy at the back, and when they haven’t been, El Pulpo has been around to pick up the slack. Again, things haven’t been perfect, as there have been moments where individual and collective errors have hurt the team, but it’s been better.

I thought the Lions would struggle this year. Going into the start of the season, we were talking about a team that lost Torres, arguably didn’t do enough to strengthen the team across the board, was facing depth issues, and was dealing with a leaky defense — all while pretty much every other contender in the East got stronger on paper. Instead, OCSC tied a club-best unbeaten streak and is just three points out of second place.

That being said, the East is so tight that Orlando is only five points above the playoff line, and injuries to the wrong guys could easily topple the fragile ecosystem that is the depth chart, but so far things are going better than I thought they would be. There are still a lot of matches to play, but this isn’t a bad position to be in at the halfway mark.

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