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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/4/25

USWNT wins as Abello gets first cap, Orlando Pride’s Concacaf W Champions Cup draw, Club World Cup in Orlando, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Tuesday was a busy soccer day, especially on the women’s side. We have plenty of Orlando Pride news, and the USWNT secured yet another victory. I’m hoping the good vibes continue since I’ll be coming down to Orlando for the Pride’s match this Saturday. If you’re going to the match, let me know, as I’d love to meet as many of our readers as possible. For now, let’s get to the links.

USWNT Blanks Jamaica

The USWNT defeated Jamaica 4-0 in a friendly at Energizer Park in St. Louis. The Orlando Pride’s Kerry Abello got her first start and her first cap in the match. She went the full 90 minutes and almost had her first international goal in the second half, but the chance went a bit wide of the right post. Ally Sentnor and Lynn Biyendolo each scored a brace as the U.S. rolled to an easy win.

Pride Internationals

Abello wasn’t the only Pride player to make an international appearance. Marta returned to international duty for Brazil getting the start and the captain’s armband in a 2-1 win over Japan. Both Grace Chanda and Barbra Banda started for Zambia in the 2-0 loss to South Africa in the Three Nations Challenge. Congratulations are also due to Zara Chavoshi, who earned her first cap with the Canadian Women’s National Team in the match against Haiti.

Concacaf W Champions Cup Draw

The Concacaf W Champions Cup draw happened yesterday and the Orlando Pride are in Group A with Club America Femenil, CF Pachuca Femenil, LD Alajuelense, and Chorrillo FC. Group B consists of NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Washington Spirit, CF Monterrey Femenil, Vancouver Rise FC Academy, and Alianza Women FC. The competition kicks off Aug. 19-21.

FIFA Loves Orlando

FIFA President Gianni Infantino sat for an interview with Jamie Seh of WKMG Orlando. Infantino spoke about the upcoming Club World Cup matches at Inter&Co Stadium and Camping World Stadium. FIFA loves Orlando enough for the city to host the Club World Cup, but not the actual World Cup. Here is the schedule for the matches in Orlando. We will be bringing you coverage of these matches.

Free Kicks


That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the return of the Orlando Pride this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/3/25

Orlando City B announces signings, details of Concacaf W Champions Cup, UEFA Nations League preview, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Good morning, everyone. It’s been a pretty brutal last two games for Orlando City, there’s no getting around that fact. While it’s never fun to not have the team in action, a two-week break between games maybe isn’t the worst thing in this particular case. Even though it’ll be a minute before the Lions are back in action, we still have plenty of things to talk about, so let’s get into today’s links.

Orlando City B Announces Signings

Orlando City B announced on Monday that it has signed Clovis Archange and Jackson Platts to MLS NEXT Pro contracts. The pair are graduates of the Orlando City Development Academy and were part of the team that won the U-18 Generation Adidas Cup earlier this year. The 18-year-old Platts captained the team in the final, while Archange was named as one of the players to watch before the tournament started. They’ve both featured for their countries at the youth level, with Platts appearing for the United States U-16 and U-18 teams, and Archange suiting up for Canada’s U-17 side. Congratulations to both players!

Concacaf Announces W Champions Cup Details

Concacaf has named the 10 teams that will participate 2025-2026 Concacaf W Champions Cup and has announced the pots for tonight’s draw. The Orlando Pride are one of three American teams participating in the second year of the competition, and have been placed into Pot 2. Teams will be divided into two groups of five, with each team facing every club in its group once, and the top two sides from each group then advancing to the semifinals. The winner gets a spot in the 2027 FIFA Women’s Champions Cup, and the FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, which is set to be held for the first time in 2028. The draw takes place tonight at 8 p.m.

UEFA Nations League Preview

The UEFA Nations League returns this week, with the semifinals set for tomorrow and Thursday, and the third-place game and final taking place on Sunday. Things get started on Wednesday afternoon with Germany facing off against Portugal in Munich. Germany put away Italy 5-4 on aggregate in the quarterfinals to get to the semis for the first time, while Portugal beat Denmark 5-2, and is hunting for its second Nations League trophy. Thursday has Spain taking on France in Stuttgart. The Spanish beat the Netherlands on penalties in the semis to get here, while France took out Croatia on penalties to punch its ticket. There’s plenty of recent history in this one as these teams also met in the semifinals of Euro 2024 last year, with Spain claiming a 2-1 win.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

The transfer rumor mill has kicked into full swing, so let’s catch up on some of the big talking points. Starting in England, Manchester United has reportedly increased its interest in Brian Mbuemo, with the Brentford forward said to also be interested in moving to the club. There are said to be a number of Premier League teams interested in signing Southampton midfielder Tyler Dibling after his team was relegated to the Championship this season. Jobe Bellingham will reportedly follow in his brother Jude’s footsteps, as he’s reportedly decided to join Borussia Dortmund. Finally, Inter Milan is reportedly interested in signing Marcus Rashford as the Italians look to rebuild the squad following a brutal defeat in the UEFA Champions League final.

Free Kicks

  • Here’s a first look at Alex Freeman in his USMNT kit:

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Chicago Fire: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 3-1 loss against the Chicago Fire?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City turned one loss into two heading into the international break. The Lions gave up three first-half goals and lost 3-1 at home to the Chicago Fire. A determined but ineffective offense wasn’t able to make up for lapses on the defensive end. The break is about a week late, but perhaps the players can get some rest. Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their Eastern Conference matchup.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 5 — El Pulpo literally had the ball slip through his hands on Philip Zinckernagel’s early goal. The other two goals weren’t on him, but it’s hard to forgive the first howler. He recorded one save and one clearance. It was not a great night from Gallese, but every keeper has one like that occasionally. He had 22 touches, completing 89.5% of his 19 passes and five of his seven long balls.

D, David Brekalo, 6 —Brekalo started at left back as usual, but after Rodrigo Schlegel subbed off he moved inside with Robin Jansson. He was busy in both halves of the pitch as he pressed into the attack when at fullback. He didn’t push forward quite as much after moving to center back, though he did still contribute as Orlando chased the match. He recorded 71 touches, completing 86.2% of his 58 passes. Brekalo also completed four of his five long balls. Like many, he managed one shot, though it wasn’t on target as his effort off a corner kick was blocked. Defensively, he tallied three interceptions and one tackle.

D, Robin Jansson, 5.5 — The captain let his emotions get the better of him in the first half. He was battling Hugo Cuypers all night, and given Cuypers scored a brace, I can’t say Jansson won the matchup. His frustration resulted in a yellow card in the 45th minute. After the half, he was able to get back on track, though the damage was done. Jansson had 70 touches, completing 100% of his 59 passes. He had one key pass and even took one shot, though it wasn’t on target. Defensively, he recorded three clearances and one tackle.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 4.5 — It was not a good night for Schlegel. He lost Cuypers on the second and third Chicago goals, and it’s not recommended to allow the opposition’s best goal scorer to be alone in the box or to get in behind the back line. Defensively, he only contributed two tackles and recorded no interceptions or clearances. He managed 30 touches and completed 88.9% of his 27 passes. Schlegel committed two fouls and received a yellow card in the 49th minute. He was subbed off in the 54th minute for Rafael Santos.

D, Alex Freeman, 6 — Freeman scored Orlando’s only goal in the 39th minute, putting a header off the corner kick on target and into the back of the net by way of a deflection in front. It was his lone shot on target in two attempts. The right back recorded 77 touches, completing 78.4% of his 51 passes, including five crosses and one key pass. Defensively, he recorded three interceptions, one clearance, and one tackle.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 6 — Angulo still doesn’t have a goal in 2025, which isn’t surprising given his one shot on goal was well off target. He wasn’t bad in this match, but he also didn’t play very long, as he only touched the ball 19 times. He got lost defensively on the second Chicago goal as there was poor communication and he strayed inside, leaving Zinckernagel out wide alone for an easy cross to Cuypers. His best moment in the match came after tracking back to help recover the ball in his own end before making an incredible long run deep into the attacking box and backheeling a pass to Luis Muriel, who dropped it to Marco Pasalic for a good scoring chance. Angulo completed all of his 12 passes. He came off at halftime for Ramiro Enrique, but he was one of the few players who appeared to have a lot of jump in his legs in the first half.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 6.5 (MotM) — Atuesta showed how important he is to Orlando City club in this match. His vision and ability to connect passes put teammates in dangerous places, even if they couldn’t convert those chances. He continued to make good passes in and around the box trying to get Orlando’s offense going. Atuesta had a team-high 94 touches, completing 89.7% of his 78 passes, including two key passes. He connected on five of his seven long balls and one of his seven crosses. Atuesta attempted two shots, though neither was on target. Defensively, he contibuted one tackle.

MF, Joran Gerbet, 6 — Gerbet started in place of the suspended Cesar Araujo and continues to have some rookie struggles midway through the season. If he hadn’t been so good earlier in the season, it wouldn’t seem like he’s having difficulty lately. Like others, he got a little bit better as the match went on, though he came off in the 77th minute for Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. Gerbet had 44 touches, completing 93.8% of his 32 passes, winning one aerial, and recording one key pass. Defensively, he contributed four tackles, and one interception,

MF, Marco Pašalić, 6 — Pasalic was active if ultimately ineffective in Orlando’s attack with four shots, though he only put one on target. He recorded 63 touches, completing 82.2% of his 45 passes, including two of his four long balls. Pasalic contributed two key passes and connected on one of his five crosses. He took a nasty tumble, hitting the back of his head when he landed, though he was able to continue. He exited in the 88th minute for Gustavo Caraballo.

F, Martín Ojeda, 6.5 — It was Ojeda’s corner kick that found the head of Freeman to give Orlando its only goal. He wasn’t able to contribute a goal in this match, though not for a lack of trying. He took four shots with one on target, led the team with eight key passes, and recorded the assist. Ojeda touched the ball 62 times, completing 90.6% of 32 passes. He was fouled three times, one of which earned a free kick outside the box in the 58th minute. He even contributed on defense with two tackles and an interception.

F, Luis Muriel, 6 — On another night Muriel has at least a brace. He took six shots with none on target, though he had a free kick that went into the wall 59th minute, and he hit the crossbar in the 64th. If that ball is two inches lower, Orlando maybe climbs back into the match. He still dribbled into blind alleys and gave the ball away to the opposition, though not as much as in some other matches. He had 65 touches, completing 80% of his 35 passes, including one cross and two key passes.

Substitutes

F, Ramiro Enrique, (45′), 6 — Enrique came on for Angulo to start the second half as the Lions pushed for a comeback. He was fairly accurate, putting two of his four shots on target. One shot in the 62nd minute went right to the keeper, though the other shot was saved it was a very well taken chance on the outside of his right foot as he moved towards the goal. He also made a great tackle in the 86th minute to take the ball back from Jonathan Bamba. He did all of that on only 19 touches, completing 88.9% of his nine passes, including one key pass.

D, Rafael Santos, (54’), 5.5 — With both Schlegel and Jansson on yellow cards, Santos came on to replace Schlegel to allow Brekalo to move inside with Jansson. Perhaps it was because of the desperation with which Orlando City was playing, but it wasn’t too bad of an outing for Santos. He was active on the left side, putting in five crosses, but he completed just one. Santos tried to combine with his teammates while looking to break down the Chicago defense. He had 34 touches, completing 95.8% of his 24 passes. Defensively, he had one clearance.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, (77’), 6 — I feel like Dagur Dan could have started in place of Gerbet rather than subbing on. His motor was obviously better than those that had played more minutes during the month of May. He was persistent in trying to win the ball back when Chicago tried to counter attack. He only managed nine touches, completing 100% of his six passes. His individual effort in stoppage time was a highlight, as he did well to win the ball back and jumpstart the counter, but ultimately Enrique not only strayed offside prior to the pass but also fired his shot off target anyway.

MF, Gustavo Caraballo (88′), N/A — The youngster came on late for Pasalic. He only managed six touches, completing 80% of his five passes. The four he completed were all back passes. He made some runs into the box, but the ball never arrived for him to get a chance.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s disappointing 3-1 loss at home against Chicago. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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