Orlando City
Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?
A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.
Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?
Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):
For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.
The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.
Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.
When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.
“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”
Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.
So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.
Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.
The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.
A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.
Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:
As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.
Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.
Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.
As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.
So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.
In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers! We’re into the thick of the World Cup group stage, and so far it’s been undeniably entertaining. My only complaint is that I’m not independently wealthy and still have to work during the day rather than travel to and pay the stupid ticket prices to watch whichever matches I want. Oh well, until that happens let’s get to the links, but not before we wish Orlando Pride midfielder Summer Yates a happy birthday.
Griezmann Signing Graded
There were plenty of big signings this summer transfer window, including Orlando City securing the services of Antoine Griezmann. Unsurprisingly, the Lions earned top marks for bringing the Frenchman to the City Beautiful. You might not know all there is to know about Orlando City’s newest Designated Player and may want more information on him and why he isn’t with France at the World Cup. Obviously, he retired from international football. Fortunately, he didn’t retire from club football.
USMNT vs. Australia
The USMNT plays Australia in the second match of the group stage this Friday at 3 p.m. The U.S. is coming off a dominating win over Paraguay, but Australia managed a pretty good win over a tough Türkiye team. There has been a lot of talk by U.S. pundits before the tournament about Mike Grella’s remark that Australia would be a “layup,” and the Socceroos are using that as bulletin board material. It’s an intriguing matchup since Australia, like Paraguay, favors a low block and attacking on the counter. The U.S. effectively shut down Paraguay when it tried the same thing. Can the U.S. replicate its performance from the first match on Friday? That is why they play the game. If you’re looking for somewhere to watch the match in the Orlando area, here is your guide.
Even More USMNT News
It’s all too often that we get over-hyped after a win like the USMNT over Paraguay, but is that the case this time, or can the team make a deep run into the tournament? With Australia up next, U.S. supporters are concerned about the health of Christian Pulisic. According to Mauricio Pochettino, he’s all good. Meanwhile, Haji Wright remembers scoring a brace against the Aussies when the teams met in a friendly. Wright was an unused sub in the first World Cup match, but perhaps he’ll have a chance on Friday. Wright says that Türkiye came into the match too confident, but the U.S. knows how dangerous Australia is and won’t make that same mistake.
World Cup Results
The two early matches on Tuesday were enjoyable even if the results were a little more what we expected. Kylian Mbappé scored a brace in France’s 3-1 win over Senegal. Bradley Barcola scored France’s second goal and Ibrahim Mbaye scored Senegal’s lone goal. In the second match, Erling Haaland also scored a brace in Norway’s 4-1 victory over Iraq. Aymen Hussein scored Iraq’s only goal. Unfortunately for him, he also scored an own goal for Norway. It is nice that Mbappé and Haaland wanted to emulate Folarin Balogun. Thankfully, the Argentina versus Algeria match was late enough that I did not have to write about it or that Lionel Messi guy.
Free Kicks
- Tyler Adams just seems like a good dude, and it’s stuff like this that proves it. He is working with the U.S. Soccer Foundation to build mini pitches in areas of need across the country.
- England hasn’t played a match in the World Cup and the team has already had to replace Tino Livramento, who has been ruled out due to a calf injury. Chelsea defender Trevoh Chalobah is his replacement.
- Remember during the opening match between Mexico and and South Africa, when Fox aired commercials during the hydration break? Remember how they didn’t come back until play had already resumed? FIFA could have punished the network but has decided not to do so. Hopefully, it doesn’t happen again.
- The Chicago Stars signed Spain national team defender Leila Ouahabi to a three-year contract through the 2028 NWSL season.
- We know that Mauricio Pochettino won’t be heading to AC Milan, since the club appointed Ruben Amorim to the head coach post.
- Are Scotland supporters drinking all the beer in Boston? I’m betting that the Tartan Army is giving it a try.
- There’s nothing quite like getting called out by your middle school teacher as an adult.
That will do it for today. We’re only two days from the USMNT versus Australia, and I’m ready to run through a brick wall — metaphorically speaking. We also have OCB this weekend, so make time to watch the Young Lions. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/16/26
Alex Freeman’s impact, World Cup results roundup, Tunisia makes coaching change, and more.
Good morning, everyone! I write to you from Seattle, where I touched down last night ahead of attending the United States Men’s National Team’s second group game against Australia on Friday. I’ll spend the early part of this week getting out into some nature with my family, before returning to the city on Thursday to cheer on our boys against the Aussies. We’ve got lots to talk about today, so let’s get into the links!
Alex Freeman’s Impact
By now, I’m sure you know that the USMNT opened its time at the World Cup with a rousing 4-1 shellacking of Paraguay. What you might not know is the role that former Orlando City fullback Alex Freeman played in the victory. He continued his meteoric rise since debuting for OCSC’s senior side last season, as he went the full 90 minutes against Paraguay and racked up an assist, two interceptions, and five recoveries. He also pushed forward and took up positions in the half spaces that cause plenty of problems for the opponent’s defense and was mostly sharp with his positioning defensively. Here’s hoping he continues that sort of form!
World Cup Results Roundup
It was another engrossing day of World Cup action on Monday, and things got off to a very strong start. Debutants Cape Verde played Spain to a scoreless draw in Atlanta, as the 64th-ranked team in the world picked up its first World Cup point in its first-ever match. The second game of the day saw Egypt take a surprising lead over Belgium before the introduction of Romelu Lukaku off the bench forced an own goal that leveled the score and saw the game end 1-1. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia made it three draws in three games, as the underdogs once again took the lead before Uruguay fought back well in the second half. The final game of the day between Iran and New Zealand concluded after our editorial deadline.
Tunisia Fires Head Coach
It only took four days of games for this World Cup to get its first managerial change, as Tunisia fired head coach Sabri Lamouchi on Monday morning. Tunisia wrapped up Sunday’s action by being on the wrong end of a 5-1 hammering against Sweden to open tournament play on a less-than-ideal note. The loss meant Tunisia has won just one of its last eight games, and the team has given up five goals in two straight games after slumping to a 5-0 loss to Belgium in its final pre-tournament friendly. Mondher Kebaier will take over as interim head coach and has a lot to fix before Tunisia faces Japan in its second group game on Saturday.
Global Transfer Summary
Under cover of the World Cup, transfers are still flying thick and fast around the world. We begin with Real Madrid, which announced the signing of fullback Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on Monday morning. Elsewhere, former Lens manager Pierre Sage was named Oliver Glasner’s successor as the head coach of Crystal Palace. Moving into the realm of rumor, winger Ismael Saibari is reportedly close to joining Bayern Munich from PSV Eindhoven, with a medical the only thing left standing in the way from putting pen to paper. Finally, new Real Madrid manager Jose Mourinho is said to be keen on signing midfielder Felix Nmecha from Borussia Dortmund, but he will likely face stiff competition from Premier League sides and Dortmund itself.
Free Kicks
- Cape Verde’s goalkeeper was superb in the team’s draw against Spain and has seen his online popularity explode as a result.
- FIFA found no evidence of a racist gesture by video assistant referee Shaun Evans before Germany’s match against Curacao.
- There have been some entertaining moments both on and off the field at the tournament.
- Bukayo Saka says he’s ready for England’s opening match, despite fears over an Achilles tendon that bothered him off and on during the club season.
That’s all I’ve got for you today. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/15/26
OCB beats Huntsville City, OCB signs Parker Amoo-Mensah, USMNT defeats Paraguay in World Cup, and more.
Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been keeping myself busy at work but tried to catch as many World Cup matches as possible. I did get to check out the Mumford & Sons and Rufus Du Sol concerts at Wrigley Field up here in Chicago. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
OCB Defeats Huntsville City FC on the Road
Orlando City B completed the comeback, overturning a 1-0 deficit to beat Huntsville City FC 2-1 at Wicks Family Field Saturday. Huntsville struck first to take a 1-0 lead into halftime. In the second half, Matthew Belgodere buried the equalizer for the Young Lions. Jacob Ramirez scored the final goal of the match for OCB to seal the win on the road and extend its winning streak to four games. That result lifts the Young Lions to third in the MLS NEXT Pro Eastern Conference table with 28 points. OCB will return home to face Philadelphia Union II Sunday at Osceola County Stadium.
OCB Signs Parker Amoo-Mensah
Orlando City B has signed academy defender Parker Amoo-Mensah to an MLS NEXT Pro contract. The club announced the signing Friday with the deal running through the 2028 season. Amoo-Mensah has made 12 appearances for the Young Lions during the 2026 MLS NEXT Pro season, starting eight matches, and has one assist.
USMNT Defeats Paraguay in World Cup Opener
The U.S. Men’s National Team defeated Paraguay 4-1 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, to win its opening match in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Former Lion Alex Freeman played a full 90 minutes and recorded an assist in the match, while Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda was on Paraguay’s bench but did not play. The USMNT’s opening goal was an own goal from Paraguay midfielder Damian Bobadilla to give the Yanks the lead in the first half. Falorin Balogun scored twice for the U.S to take a 3-0 lead into halftime. In the second half, Paraguay pulled one back, but Gio Reyna added the insurance goal. The USMNT will face Australia in its second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lumen Field in Seattle on Friday.
2026 FIFA World Cup Recap
On Friday, Canada drew Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1. Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau started the match and had two clutch saves while former Lions Cyle Larin and Richie Laryea were also in action. Larin scored the equalizer for the Canadian Men’s National Team, securing a draw and earning its first-ever point in a World Cup match. On Saturday, Qatar and Switzerland played to a 1-1 draw, Brazil and Morocco settled for a 1-1 draw, Scotland secured its first World Cup win in 36 years with a 1-0 victory over Haiti, and Australia defeated Turkey 2-0. On Sunday, Kai Havertz scored twice for Germany in a 7-1 win over Curacao, Japan trailed twice and fought back for a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, Amad Diallo scored a late winner for Ivory Coast in a 1-0 win over Ecuador, and Sweden and Tunisia kicked off late. Today’s matches will feature Spain facing Cape Verde, Belgium taking on Egypt, Saudi Arabia facing Uruguay, and Iran taking on New Zealand.
Free Kicks
- Charlotte FC is reportedly close to signing RC Lens winger Allan Saint-Maximin to a Designated Player contract.
- The Chicago Fire are reportedly pursuing Bayern Munich midfielder Leon Goretzka while holding talks with former FC Barcelona forward Robert Lewandowski.
- Real Madrid has reportedly reached an agreement with Chelsea to sign defender Marc Cucurella.
- Somali referee Omar Artan will receive full payment from FIFA after being denied entry to the United States for the 2026 World Cup due to visa issues.
- Two men have been charged in connection with the theft of England’s World Cup training equipment as the national team was moving its base camp from West Palm Beach to Kansas City, MO.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
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