Orlando City
Orlando City vs. New York City FC: Final Score 1-1 as Teams Trade Second-Half Goals
The Lions and Pigeons split the points in a defensive struggle in the Orlando heat.
The Lions struck first but could only hold the lead for five minutes as Orlando City and New York City FC split the points in a 1-1 draw before an announced crowd of 22,827 at Inter&Co Stadium. Ramiro Enrique scored in his fourth consecutive match for Orlando (9-9-7, 34 points) but a bad giveaway in the defensive third handed Hannes Wolf a chance to equalize for NYCFC (11-9-5, 38 points) in a defensive struggle.
“A big effort from the players after this couple weeks that we have been playing every three days, and I would like to value that effort,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “The two teams tried to put a good performance, and from our side in the first half we had control but we were not as dangerous as we were coming in prior games. They kept possession sometimes in their half but not dangerous plays. Second half, it seems we brought more energy and we started creating better chances.”
Pareja made just one change from the squad that beat Nashville SC 3-0 on the road Wednesday, dropping Facundo Torres to the bench and starting Nico Lodeiro. Pedro Gallese started in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena started in central midfield behind an attacking line of Ivan Angulo, Lodeiro, and Martin Ojeda, with Enrique up top.
The first half was a defensive battle and probably not a match you’d use to change a soccer skeptic’s mind about the sport. With both teams playing their third match in eight days and the oppressive Central Florida heat, the teams tried to stay organized and wait for the other to make a mistake. As a result, there were no scoring chances of any kind in the first quarter of an hour.
Ojeda sent in a cross to Enrique in the 17th minute that had a lot of pace on it and the latter could only redirect it weakly toward goal. It wasn’t even technically a shot attempt. In the 22nd minute, Lodeiro sent a good ball from the right to the back post. Angulo got to it first but had no angle to shoot and put it into the outside netting.
Alonso Martinez fired New York City FC’s first shot from outside the box a minute later. It had a ton of power behind it but Gallese was able to fight it off.
Ojeda nearly picked out Enrique right in front from the left in the 27th minute but the ball was a bit too far out in front and Matt Freese pounced on it.
Just after the hydration break, Wolf got in behind Thorhallsson in the 34th minute down the left channel. He sent a good shot toward the back post but Gallese made the save, pushing the rebound out wide.
Two minutes later, Angulo cut in from the left and sent a shot toward the near post. Freese made the save and didn’t give up much of a rebound. The Colombian may have been better served to go for the far post.
That was the last half chance for either side in the scoreless opening period.
Orlando City had the halftime advantage in possession (56.7%-43.3%) and shot attempts (4-2), but the visitors held the edge in shots on target (2-1), corners (1-0), and passing accuracy (87.4%-86.3%).
Facundo Torres subbed on for Lodeiro to start the second half, but the visitors created the first clear-cut chance after the break. Keaton Parks got in behind Angulo and he and Santos couldn’t recover in time to prevent a good cutback pass into the area. No one was on Santiago Rodriguez — NYCFC’s biggest offensive threat — but the Uruguayan fired his shot over the bar from about 12 yards out in the 47th minute.
The Lions broke the deadlock five minutes later. Ojeda cut inside from the right and sent a shot toward goal that redirected off Enrique’s foot and caught Freese leaning the wrong way. The ball trickeled into the net near the right post and Orlando led 1-0 in the 52nd minute. It was Enrique’s fourth goal in as many games.
“It always makes me happy to score a goal,” Enrique said. “As a striker, it’s really important to be able to score, but I think tonight we leave the game with a little bit of a sour taste in our mouth, because we felt like we had that game and that we should have won.”
The lead lasted only five minutes. Cartagena’s howler of a turnover on a blind pass just outside his own penalty area went right to NYCFC’s Rodriguez, and the Pigeons paid off the short counterattack as the ball was slipped in to Wolf by Martinez, who chipped it into the far corner and out of Gallese’s reach to make it 1-1 in the 57th minute.
“We have the game one-zero. It is something this year that has been a challenge for us to open the games. And then this goal we conceded. This is why we have that sensation of frustration for us, that it was not that they did a lot of stuff to tie the game.”
NYCFC nearly took the lead a few minutes later on a simple long ball over the top that caught Santos napping. Mitja Ilenic blazed past the Brazilian and sent a chip shot similar to Wolf’s, but missed the target in the 62nd minute.
Torres cut inside on his left foot and fired in the 66th minute but pulled his shot to the right of the post. Enrique then fired a blast from outside the area in the 67th minute and Freese made a good save.
New York City was content to be physical when threatened by Orlando’s attacking players. The visitors finished with 20 fouls to the Lions’ 11 and ended the game with more yellow cards (4-1) as well. Strahinja Tanasijevic and Wolf were booked a minute apart for roughing up Ojeda and Torres, respectively.
Santos got away with a terrible turnover in his end in the 75th minute, hustling back into position to block Rodriguez’s shot just wide of the left post.
Cartagena nearly made up for his earlier mistake in the 83rd minute when he blasted a shot on target from long range. Freese was able to get over and make a diving, one-handed save on the play and needed treatment to his shoulder after hitting the ground hard.
The Lions were able to deal with several NYCFC set-piece opportunities down the stretch without too much trouble and the game went into eight minutes of injury time.
The only real opportunity in stoppage time fell to second-half sub Luis Muriel in the 98th minute. Just inside the top of the box, the ball cycled around and found Muriel in the middle. He turned and fired but didn’t get a lot of power on it and Freese was able to make the save.
That was that, and the teams had to settle for a draw.
The Lions finished with the advantage in possession (55%-45%), shots (12-8), and shots on target (5-3). Corners were even (5-5), and NYCFC passed slightly more accurately (84.9%-83.5%).
“Tough game,” Jansson said. “Two teams that really wanted it. I think that New York was a little bit better in the first half and we were a little bit better in the second, getting some good chances, and it was a tough opponent today. They did well. It’s always hard to play them. But overall, I think coming from a game two days ago and going into this one, I think we did a great job.”
The Lions’ four-game winning streak is over, but the unbeaten run stretched to five matches.
“We walk (away) with a bit of frustration, but as well with a lot of pride of what the boys have done,” Pareja said. “They have been the best team in Major League Soccer the last several games, knowing today that in front of our fans we should have won it. But we’ll carry that. We need to have energy for the next tournament and pause (of) the league, knowing that we are in a good moment and a good momentum, and I want to give that credit to the players that really have changed the story of our season so far.”
The Leagues Cup break is now upon us. Orlando City will next play at home next Friday against CF Montreal at 8 p.m.
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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