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Orlando City

Examining the Sustainability of Ramiro Enrique’s Scoring Explosion

Is Ramiro Enrique’s scoring outburst sustainable, or is a regression to the mean on the horizon?

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6 months ago

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Since Orlando City’s 5-0 thumping of D.C. United back on July 6, Ramiro Enrique has tapped into a red-hot vein of form. He’s got four goals in four games, matching his scoring output from the entirety of the 2023 season, and doing so in four matches and 245 minutes, as compared to 30 matches and 1,019 minutes last year. That brings us to the big question: is this sort of output sustainable?

We’ll start by looking at the expected goals on each of his four tallies. While xG isn’t a perfect statistic, it provides a fairly good measure of how good a chance is. To get a clearer picture, we’ll also take a look at each goal to help gauge how difficult the chance is.

Against D.C. United, Enrique latched onto a flicked-on header from a corner kick and used a header of his own to score the Lions’ fifth and final goal of the night. That strike had an xG of 0.1. In truth, that number seems a bit low to me, as once Enrique’s in front of his defender, he has the whole net to aim at, and the ball comes in at a great height for him to get his head on it. He makes no mistake and sticks it into the side netting, where the goalkeeper has no hope of reaching it.

Against the New England Revolution, the Argentine again scored from a corner, sneaking in front of goalkeeper Aljaz Ivacic and flicking the ball past him before he could collect Cesar Araujo’s header. His second goal of the season had an xG of 0.4. That number seems more reasonable to me. Once he does the hard work of losing his marker and getting across Ivacic, the goalkeeper is helpless to stop any ball that isn’t coming straight at him, and it’s a good finish.

Against Nashville, he collected a pass from Ivan Angulo a few yards outside of the six-yard box and blasted it off the crossbar and in. The tight angle from which he scored means the xG of 0.04 isn’t too surprising. Once again, Enrique managed to lose his defender and got himself into a really nice area of open space. The finish is outstanding, but it wouldn’t have been surprising to see a save or shot off target from this angle.

His fourth goal of the year had elements of skill and luck, as he redirected Martin Ojeda’s shot against NYCFC. The effort from Ojeda took a deflection off Enrique that caught the goalkeeper leaning the wrong way and had enough pace to carry it into the net, for an xG of 0.11. Again, I’m surprised the number is as high as it is. That’s probably due to the deflection happening in the box and leaving Matt Freese next to no time to react. While it was a clever touch to redirect it, there was also a good deal of luck involved.

Those totals add up to 0.65. In other words, Enrique would be estimated to score 0.65 goals off those chances (or one, rounding up, as there are no fractions of goals), and he instead bagged four. There are a couple ways you can view that. The optimist would say that he’s simply a good finisher and has been making the most of the chances that have come his way, even when they aren’t very good ones. The pessimist would say that him converting low percentage chances at this rate isn’t sustainable, and he’s due to regress back to the mean soon.

We can also look at the bigger picture of his statistics up to this point in the year. Across 11 games and 483 minutes, Enrique has taken 18 shots, put nine of them on target, and scored from four of those. He’s also got a season xG of 3.52, which is pretty much in line with his goal total of four, although he’s slightly outperforming it. That isn’t a bad thing though, as the best strikers score difficult chances too, not just the easy ones. Cristian Arango, Christian Benteke, and Denis Bouanga are the top three scorers in the league, and Bouanga is the only one not outperforming his xG (17.68 xG compared to 16 goals).

In my opinion, the truth of Enrique’s case lies somewhere in between. He’s put 50% of his shots on target this year, which is a great number, and getting the ball on frame is half the battle in this sport, so that’s an encouraging place to start. Each of his first three goals in 2024 came as a result of getting into space in a dangerous area and making no mistake with his finish once the ball arrived. Against D.C., he did well to get in front of his defender. In New England, he snuck in from the blind side of the defense. And against Nashville, he found space in the box and stayed onside until Angulo was able to find him. That sort of movement and ability to get yourself into dangerous areas is something that can be replicated, even if finishing low-percentage chances like the strikes against Nashville and NYCFC probably isn’t.

If Enrique continues being clever with his movement and finding dangerous spaces, Orlando’s offense has begun to look fluid enough that his teammates will find ways to get him the ball. As long as he keeps getting shots on frame and his finishing stays sharp, it isn’t unreasonable to assume that he’ll grab some more goals this year. It probably won’t be at the rate he’s done so in July, but if nothing else, he should be able to provide some extra firepower to an OCSC attack that has woken up in recent weeks. Keep your fingers crossed, folks. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/23/25

Orlando City signs Thomas Williams to new contract, Orlando Pride schedule revealed, USMNT wins against Costa Rica, and more.

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12 hours ago

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January 23, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

I hope you all are staying warm as we deal with cold weather across Florida. It’s at least been nice to break out some of my heavier blankets and forgotten hot cocoa packets I’ve had stored away. My cat has also been curling up next to me more, which is always a plus. Still, not shivering while waiting for my car to warm up would be great. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Thomas Williams Signs New Orlando City Contract

Orlando City center back Thomas Williams signed a new contract with the club that lasts through 2026, with an option for 2027 as well. Williams joined the club’s academy back in 2015 and became the youngest Homegrown Player in club history when he signed a first-team contract at 16 years old in 2021. The 20-year-old hasn’t featured much for the first team, and he’ll likely spend most of this year with Orlando City B for consistent playing time. Hopefully Williams can take a step forward in his development and provide the Lions some helpful depth at center back in the event of injuries.

Orlando Pride 2025 Season Schedule Unveiled

The NWSL announced its 2025 season schedule Wednesday, and the Orlando Pride will start their title defense season at home against the Chicago Red Stars on March 14. Their first road game will be the following weekend on March 23 against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Decision Day returns to the schedule this year, with all 14 clubs in action on Nov. 2. The Pride will close out their regular season at home that day against the Seattle Reign, with the postseason set to begin on Nov. 7. There’s also a break in the schedule in July, with no regular-season games scheduled due to international tournaments like the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and Copa America Femenina.

USMNT Shuts Out Costa Rica in Orlando

The United States Men’s National Team beat Costa Rica 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando Wednesday night to stay perfect at the home of the Lions and Pride at 7-0-0. Goalkeeper Zack Steffen truly earned his clean sheet, coming up with some great saves to deny Costa Rica. It was also a solid attacking performance from the Yanks, and Patrick Agyemang put a bow on what’s been a great month for him with his second goal in as many games. Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino has some time to assess things before the USMNT plays Panama in the Concacaf Nations League semifinals on March 20

Keeping Up With MLS Transfer News

San Diego FC added another Designated Player ahead of its inaugural season, signing Danish winger Anders Dreyer from Anderlecht for a transfer fee reportedly near $5 million. He recorded 31 goals and 23 assists in 87 appearances across all competitions for Anderlecht and joins San Diego on a three-year deal. Charlotte FC officially added Wilfried Zaha on loan from Galatasaray. He’ll occupy a DP spot and the loan lasts through Jan. 16, 2026, with an option to extend it through June of that year as well.

LAFC made a trade with its rival to strengthen its midfield, acquiring Mark Delgado from the LA Galaxy in exchange for $400,000 in General Allocation Money. The Portland Timbers signed Venezuelan forward Kevin Kelsy from Shakhtar Donetsk as an MLS U22 Initiative player, with FC Cincinnati receiving GAM for his discovery rights. Real Salt Lake, which signed Mason Stajduhar from Orlando City earlier this month, continued to make changes to its goalkeeping group. The club signed veteran goalkeeper Rafael Cabral as a free agent and transferred 19-year-old American Gavin Beavers to Brondby IF in Denmark.

UEFA Champions League Roundup

The penultimate round of the UEFA Champions League’s league phase wrapped up this week. Paris Saint-Germain beat Manchester City 4-2 in the heavyweight matchup of the round, with all six goals coming in the second half. Joao Neves gave PSG the lead in the 78th minute before Goncalo Ramos put the game on ice in stoppage time. City now needs to win its final game against Club Brugge on Wednesday in order to advance.

Real Madrid cruised to a 5-1 win against RB Salzburg to advance, with both Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. scoring braces. Celtic also booked its spot in the next round after a 1-0 win against Young Boys. Feyenoord pulled off an upset by winning 3-0 against Bayern Munich as well. Elsewhere in the tournament, AC Milan won 1-0 at home against Girona, Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0, and RB Leipzig did well in a 2-1 victory over Sporting CP.

Free Kicks

  • American goalkeeper Michelle Betos announced her retirement from professional soccer after a career that included winning the 2016 NWSL Shield with the Portland Thorns and the 2023 NWSL Championship with Gotham. Betos was also named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year with the Thorns in 2015.
  • Arsenal and Chelsea are among the multiple clubs reportedly keeping an eye on American forward Trinity Rodman, whose contract with the Washington Spirit ends after this year.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1882171400481542482

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a great Thursday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Signs Defender Thomas Williams Through 2026

Orlando City signs Homegrown center back Thomas Williams to a new contract through 2026 with a club option for 2027.

Published

1 day ago

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January 22, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Mark Thor

Orlando City announced this morning that the club has signed defender Thomas Williams through the 2026 season with a club option for 2027. The Homegrown Player has been with the first team since 2021 and will continue for at least two more years.

“Thomas is someone whose future we’re still very excited about and we’re happy to get him locked in with us for a couple more years,” Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “He’s shown a lot of growth these last few seasons, continuing to get game action with Orlando City B and proving the importance of our development pathway, and we’re looking forward to having him with us for the foreseeable future.”

The Titusville native joined the Orlando City Academy in 2015 and made his professional debut for the club on Aug. 7, 2020 against New England Revolution II. He played in 13 games that year with 10 starts and recorded 844 minutes. His play on the Young Lions’ back line earned him a first-team contract on June 15, 2021, at just 16 years old, making him the youngest player in club history to sign a Homegrown contract.

The 20-year-old center back made his MLS debut on April 16, 2022 in a 2-0 win over the Columbus Crew in Ohio. He made five appearances with three starts in all competitions that season, recording 271 minutes. To date, those are the only appearances he’s made with the first team.

Since joining OCB in 2021, Williams has made 69 appearances with 61 starts and recorded 5,132 minutes. He’s been booked 19 times and sent off twice, both times after receiving second yellow cards.

What It Means for Orlando City

Williams is the fourth natural center back for Orlando City on the current squad behind Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, and Rodrigo Schlegel. He played well early in his OCB and MLS career, but has struggled recently. Last year, he played exclusively with the second team, partnering with Nabi Kibunguchy.

While Williams hasn’t made much of an impact on the first team so far, he’s only 20 years old and still has plenty of time to develop. Extending his contact shows that the club still has faith that he can turn into a key player for the MLS side.

It’s unlikely that Williams will see any time with the first team in 2025 (barring injuries and/or suspensions), considering that he’s also been behind versatile defender Kyle Smith at the center back position. He’ll likely spend the upcoming season with OCB, continuing to develop and earn his spot with the first team. As a Homegrown Player, there isn’t much risk in signing Williams to a new contract, especially if the club’s technical staff thinks he can develop into a quality defender.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/22/25

Orlando City transfer rumors, Orlando Pride preseason begins, USMNT at Inter&Co, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

January 22, 2025

By

Dan MacDonald, The ManeLand

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Up here in Tallahassee, I’m waking up to snow/sleet, closed schools, closed government offices, and potentially icy roads. Many people will get an extra day off of work, however, I still get to go to work. I’m sure you can imagine how happy I am about that. Enough of my winter grumbling. Let’s get to the links but not until after we wish Orlando City fullback Michael Halliday a happy 22nd birthday.

Orlando City Reportedly Targeting Croatian International

While I can no longer say that Orlando City hasn’t signed any new players, the club is still moving at its traditionally slow speed as compared to other MLS clubs. We had the signing of Nicolas Rodriguez last week. Now, we have Tom Bogert report of yet another winger prospect for the club in Croatian Marco Pasalic from HNK Rijeka, though it is not a done deal. Hopefully the other targets Bogert mentions are of the striker variety.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881755961125449765?s=46&t=pMoq7Wulqfb35D7C8ydroA

Pride Preseason Begins

The 2024 NWSL champions are back to defend their title. The Orlando Pride returned to training on Tuesday. The club hasn’t needed to add many pieces, though some of the players already here, like Simone Charley and Grace Chanda, haven’t actually played any minutes for the Pride yet. Most of the chemistry is in place for Seb Hines, but reinforcing those bonds will be the challenge as the Pride look to repeat.

USMNT at Inter&Co Tonight

Hopefully you have tickets to the USMNT friendly match versus Costa Rica at Inter&Co Stadium tonight. The match starts at 7 p.m. and there are television and streaming options if you’re not going in person. Despite the squad having 14 players with three or fewer caps, Mauricio Pochettino does not consider this an “alternative” squad, nor does he want the players to think of themselves like that.

Girma Reportedly Nearing Completion of Chelsea Move

USWNT defender Naomi Girma is reportedly headed to Chelsea FC Women for a record $1.1 million transfer fee. That is a very big chunk of change for San Diego FC to use to try to replace one of the best defenders in the world. The deal is not complete as of Tuesday evening, but according to the original report from The Athletic, it is close to being done. Girma would be the first women’s soccer player to earn a transfer fee of over $1 million.

MLS Transfer Updates

Other MLS clubs keep on putting pen to paper when it comes to new players. The Chicago Fire are bringing in Jonathan Bamba on a Designated Player deal from La Liga side Celta de Vigo. The Luca de la Torre loan from Spain’s RC Celta de Vigo to San Diego FC is also official.

https://twitter.com/sandiegofc/status/1881741042904350864

Cucho Hernandez evidently wants to stay with the Columbus Crew, though he is still waiting on a new offer.

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1881786193693823104

Free Kicks

https://twitter.com/weareangelcity/status/1881749040863588770?s=12&t=_WZBNG4ILAyRLdwBeB4mpQ
  • Keep your eyes peeled later today for the NWSL schedule drop.
https://twitter.com/nwsl/status/1881749035218042954?s=46&t=pN-YJp3s7ZQlCXqnTAgSfw

That will do it for today. Stay warm out there, my friends. Vamos Orlando!

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