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Examining the Sustainability of Ramiro Enrique’s Scoring Explosion

Is Ramiro Enrique’s scoring outburst sustainable, or is a regression to the mean on the horizon?

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Since Orlando City’s 5-0 thumping of D.C. United back on July 6, Ramiro Enrique has tapped into a red-hot vein of form. He’s got four goals in four games, matching his scoring output from the entirety of the 2023 season, and doing so in four matches and 245 minutes, as compared to 30 matches and 1,019 minutes last year. That brings us to the big question: is this sort of output sustainable?

We’ll start by looking at the expected goals on each of his four tallies. While xG isn’t a perfect statistic, it provides a fairly good measure of how good a chance is. To get a clearer picture, we’ll also take a look at each goal to help gauge how difficult the chance is.

Against D.C. United, Enrique latched onto a flicked-on header from a corner kick and used a header of his own to score the Lions’ fifth and final goal of the night. That strike had an xG of 0.1. In truth, that number seems a bit low to me, as once Enrique’s in front of his defender, he has the whole net to aim at, and the ball comes in at a great height for him to get his head on it. He makes no mistake and sticks it into the side netting, where the goalkeeper has no hope of reaching it.

Against the New England Revolution, the Argentine again scored from a corner, sneaking in front of goalkeeper Aljaz Ivacic and flicking the ball past him before he could collect Cesar Araujo’s header. His second goal of the season had an xG of 0.4. That number seems more reasonable to me. Once he does the hard work of losing his marker and getting across Ivacic, the goalkeeper is helpless to stop any ball that isn’t coming straight at him, and it’s a good finish.

Against Nashville, he collected a pass from Ivan Angulo a few yards outside of the six-yard box and blasted it off the crossbar and in. The tight angle from which he scored means the xG of 0.04 isn’t too surprising. Once again, Enrique managed to lose his defender and got himself into a really nice area of open space. The finish is outstanding, but it wouldn’t have been surprising to see a save or shot off target from this angle.

His fourth goal of the year had elements of skill and luck, as he redirected Martin Ojeda’s shot against NYCFC. The effort from Ojeda took a deflection off Enrique that caught the goalkeeper leaning the wrong way and had enough pace to carry it into the net, for an xG of 0.11. Again, I’m surprised the number is as high as it is. That’s probably due to the deflection happening in the box and leaving Matt Freese next to no time to react. While it was a clever touch to redirect it, there was also a good deal of luck involved.

Those totals add up to 0.65. In other words, Enrique would be estimated to score 0.65 goals off those chances (or one, rounding up, as there are no fractions of goals), and he instead bagged four. There are a couple ways you can view that. The optimist would say that he’s simply a good finisher and has been making the most of the chances that have come his way, even when they aren’t very good ones. The pessimist would say that him converting low percentage chances at this rate isn’t sustainable, and he’s due to regress back to the mean soon.

We can also look at the bigger picture of his statistics up to this point in the year. Across 11 games and 483 minutes, Enrique has taken 18 shots, put nine of them on target, and scored from four of those. He’s also got a season xG of 3.52, which is pretty much in line with his goal total of four, although he’s slightly outperforming it. That isn’t a bad thing though, as the best strikers score difficult chances too, not just the easy ones. Cristian Arango, Christian Benteke, and Denis Bouanga are the top three scorers in the league, and Bouanga is the only one not outperforming his xG (17.68 xG compared to 16 goals).

In my opinion, the truth of Enrique’s case lies somewhere in between. He’s put 50% of his shots on target this year, which is a great number, and getting the ball on frame is half the battle in this sport, so that’s an encouraging place to start. Each of his first three goals in 2024 came as a result of getting into space in a dangerous area and making no mistake with his finish once the ball arrived. Against D.C., he did well to get in front of his defender. In New England, he snuck in from the blind side of the defense. And against Nashville, he found space in the box and stayed onside until Angulo was able to find him. That sort of movement and ability to get yourself into dangerous areas is something that can be replicated, even if finishing low-percentage chances like the strikes against Nashville and NYCFC probably isn’t.


If Enrique continues being clever with his movement and finding dangerous spaces, Orlando’s offense has begun to look fluid enough that his teammates will find ways to get him the ball. As long as he keeps getting shots on frame and his finishing stays sharp, it isn’t unreasonable to assume that he’ll grab some more goals this year. It probably won’t be at the rate he’s done so in July, but if nothing else, he should be able to provide some extra firepower to an OCSC attack that has woken up in recent weeks. Keep your fingers crossed, folks. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/12/26

USMNT plays Paraguay tonight, red cards rain down in World Cup opener, Sporting Kansas City linked with Yann Gboho, and more.

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Image of Alex Freeman sliding in celebration of a goal.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday, Mane Landers! The World Cup is in full swing and the U.S. will play today, so it’s a pretty exciting Friday to say the least. I’m a bit of a bundle of nerves about how the team will do, but I’m still looking forward to catching the game. If you have any gameday rituals, be sure to share, so that we can conjure up enough luck and support for the team tonight. Let’s get to the links!

USMNT’s World Cup Campaign Begins Today

The United States Men’s National Team will take on Paraguay at 9 p.m. tonight in its first match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. There’s plenty of pressure on the U.S. to perform well as one of the host nations, and this will also be Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino’s first time coaching at a World Cup. Pochettino stated that all 26 players are available for selection, including center back Chris Richards, although he may not necessarily start. Former Orlando City defender Alex Freeman, who is the youngest player on the U.S. roster, could make his World Cup debut tonight, so be sure to root for our hometown hero should he take the field. Hopefully, the Yanks can start this tournament off on the right foot with a big win in California.

World Cup Opener Features Three Red Cards

This year’s World Cup began in Mexico City, with Mexico beating South Africa 2-0 in a match that included three red cards. All three were straight red cards given in the second half in separate incidents, as Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane were sent off for South Africa before Mexico’s Cesar Montes was shown red in stoppage time. There hasn’t been a World Cup match with that many red cards since the record of four was set in 2006 in a match between Portugal and the Netherlands. As for the game’s goals, Julian Quinones pounced on a mistake by South Africa to give Mexico an early lead and Raul Jimenez doubled that lead while South Africa was reduced to 10 men.

Sporting Kansas City Linked With Yann Gboho

While the World Cup roars on, the rumor mill is in full force as clubs make plans for summer reinforcements. Sporting Kansas City is reportedly pushing to sign Toulouse winger Yann Gboho, who recorded 10 goals and three assists across all competitions this past season. The surprising aspect of this pursuit would be that Toulouse values Gboho at an eye-watering $20 million transfer fee, which would be a club record by a country mile. Kansas City needs all the help it can get on offense, as it has scored just 14 goals in 14 games so far this season.

Jose Mourinho Officially Returns to Real Madrid

It’s been a bit of an open secret over the past few weeks that Jose Mourinho would become Real Madrid’s next manager and it’s now official, with the 63-year-old signing a three-year contract with the Spanish club. Mourinho helped Real Madrid win a La Liga title and the Copa del Rey over a decade ago before his departure in 2013 after three seasons with the club. Now, he joins a Real Madrid side that has finished second in the league standings and been eliminated in the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League the past two seasons. I, for one, can’t wait to see how one of the biggest personalities in soccer works alongside a locker room of star players that seemed in disarray this past season.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/11/26

Wilder Cartagena linked with move to Sporting Cristal, Orlando Pride hire Dr. Nicole Surdyka, Barbra Banda injury update, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jermey Reper

The World Cup is finally here! Today starts what should be an exciting month of international soccer featuring more teams than ever before. While I wasn’t able to part with the arm and leg necessary to afford a ticket to one of the games, I’m still looking forward to watching along when I can with the rest of the world. Let’s get to the links!

Wilder Cartagena Linked With Move to Peruvian Club

You’ll need a translation tool to check out the full details unless you are fluent in Spanish, but Sporting Cristal of Peru’s top flight is reportedly interested in signing Orlando City midfielder Wilder Cartagena. The 31-year-old is currently under contract with Orlando through 2026, with the contact also including a club option for 2027. He was a crucial part to Orlando’s success in 2024, but he missed all of last year and has only started one game so far this season due to injuries. It’s not much more than a rumor as of now, but it’ll be something to keep an eye on during this break in the league schedule.

Barbra Banda Sustained a Hamstring Injury

Zambia Head Coach Nora Hauptle stated that Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda is dealing with a hamstring strain. Banda didn’t play in either of Zambia’s matches during this international break, but Hauptle also noted that she should recover in the next week or two and will be fine for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations at the end of July. Banda was injured late in the Pride’s 3-1 win against Bay FC on May 29 and it was unclear how severe the injury was. Hopefully she’ll be good to go before the Pride’s match against Angel City FC on July 3.

Dr. Nicole Surdyka Named Orlando Pride Director of Medical & Performance

The Orlando Pride have hired Dr. Nicole Surdyka as their new director of medical and performance. She’ll oversee the Pride’s medical operations, nutrition, and more while also working with Orlando Health. Dr. Surdyka has over a decade of experience that included leadership roles with OL Reign and the LA Galaxy and has studied extensively into developing frameworks for health and performance in women’s soccer.

โ€œNicole is one of the most respected practitioners in our field, and her expertise in womenโ€™s football, returnโ€‘toโ€‘play, and highโ€‘performance systems will elevate every aspect of our medical and performance environment,โ€ said Caitlin Carducci, Orlando Pride VP of Soccer Operations & General Manager. โ€œHer leadership, her commitment to evidenceโ€‘based practice and her passion for supporting athletes make her an exceptional addition to the Pride.โ€

Analyzing Paraguay Ahead of USMNT World Cup Match

The United States Men’s National Team will play its World Cup opener on Friday when it hosts Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. It will be the 10th match between the two nations, with the USMNT most recently winning 2-1 against Paraguay in November of last year. There’s a familiar face on Paraguay’s roster in Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda, with Miguel Almiron and Andres Cubas as other MLS midfielders called up. Paraguay’s defense is anchored by center back Gustavo Gomez, who you may remember as the player who put former Lion Alex Freeman in a headlock during that aforementioned November friendly. As for Paraguay’s attack, the Yanks will need to keep Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria from wreaking havoc. Paraguay is a physical team that’s also strong in the air, so we’ll see how the USMNT deals with that on Friday.

England Beats Costa Rica 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium

Orlando City’s Inter&Co Stadium hosted a friendly between England and Costa Rica on Wednesday, with England winning 3-0. Declan Rice gave England an early lead, but Costa Rica kept the Three Lions off the scoresheet until the substitutes came on for England in the second half, with Anthony Gordon and Ollie Watkins both scoring. England got the full Orlando experience due to a heavy storm that delayed kickoff, but Inter&Co Stadium earned praise for its drainage system that had the pitch ready to roll in no time. Enjoy this satisfying time-lapse video of the transformation provided by the stadium.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Taking Risk with No Immediate Plan to Hire New Head Coach

Ricardo Moreira is showing a lot of faith in a coach who has not yet been able to solve the team’s problem conceding goals.

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Image of Martin Perelman coaching during training.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

When a team that has made the postseason for six consecutive years is 4-6-2 under a head coach, as Orlando City is under interim head coach Martin Perelman, one of the last things the fan base will want to hear is that the club is not taking advantage of a six-week break in the schedule to install a new coach. On paper, it was always a great spot to make the change, giving plenty of time for a search prior to the break. During the break, it could give most of the team the time to get to know the new gaffer, as it could almost become a second preseason.

It’s understandable for the club to give Perelman a chance to turn things around. Perelman, however, had hardly distinguished himself in terms of wins and losses while in charge of the club’s reserve side, Orlando City B. In his two full seasons of 2022 and 2023, Perelman’s side missed the playoffs his first year and finished fifth in the Eastern Conference in his second, getting eliminated by Columbus Crew 2 in the first round of the 2023 postseason. His two-year record was 19-23-10 with five shootout wins, though he improved the team from a 6-13-5 mark in the 24-game 2022 season to 13-10-5 in a 28-match 2023. The improvement was good, but the roster was also better, led by Jack Lynn’s standout season of 19 goals and six goal contributions by a young fullback named Alex Freeman.

He then became an assistant with the first team under Oscar Pareja in early 2024.

This season, Perelman inherited an Orlando City team that was 0-3-0 and had been outscored 11-3. Since taking over, Perelman has led the Lions to the aforementioned 4-6-2 record in MLS games and Orlando City has been outscored 33-20. On the other hand, Perelman has managed to navigate through three U.S. Open Cup matches to get Orlando into the semifinals, but did that by squeaking past a third-division team, having to come from behind in a wild 4-3 match against what was essentially a developmental side and two aging veterans for New England, and then finally looking like the better side against an Atlanta United side โ€” one of the few teams that has struggled worse than Orlando this season โ€” that stayed on the road an extra three days to play in Orlando twice in a week.

Getting this far in a knockout competition isn’t nothing, but it is fair to point out that the Lions didn’t beat a murderer’s row to get there.

So, it’s understandable if some fans are raising eyebrows over Perelman continuing on as Orlando City’s coach for now, which is something Sporting Director and General Manager Ricardo Moreira recently said is happening, as reported by WESH.

Here is what Moreira said in the WESH story:

“I can confirm that Martin will continue to be the interim head coach of the team when the MLS season resumes after the break,” Moreira said. “We believe that this stability is really important for us right now, especially in the middle of the season and especially with bringing in someone like Griezmann.”

Moreira added: “We understand that bringing someone like Griezmann changes the whole landscape of the club. Integrating him into an existing group and a locker room that already has its own identity is really important. We want to maintain continuity and stability, and we believe Martin brings that to the club.”

Bringing in a star player like Antoine Griezmann makes it even more important to get the coaching situation sorted out. Moreira’s remarks about an identity are true, but the identity of a team is largely dictated by the head coach, while the style of play the club wants is dictated by the front office hiring the kind of coach who excels at whatever kind of soccer that is. If you want a run-and-gun style, you don’t hire Diego Simeone or Jose Mourinho. If you want your club to squeeze the life out of opponents defensively and grind them to bits, you’re not seeking the next Johan Cruyff. Those styles don’t align.

Moreira seems to want a more fluid attack than what Orlando had under Pareja. That’s fine. We all love seeing the team score goals. Perelman’s Lions have scored 20 goals in 12 MLS games, reaching four goals in four of those matches. That’s exciting.

Yet the same team continues to look completely inept on the road, with a record of 1-6-1 (1-5-1 under Perelman) away from Orlando. The Lions have been shut out three times on the road under Perelman and have been outscored 23-5 in the six non-wins and 27-8 in all road games under their interim manager. In only one match away from home has Orlando City held its opponent to fewer than two goals, and that was a 1-1 draw at Columbus in which the Lions led from the 14th minute until Diego Rossi’s equalizer in the 80th.

Perelman has yet to show he’s the guy who can get that done without completely throwing Pareja’s noted stability in the back into a wood chipper. The identity of the current Lions seems to be “score at least two or three goals just to have a chance.”

Pareja’s team gave up an uncharacteristic 11 goals in the first three games, which is terrible, but the Lions also played those matches without captain Robin Jansson on the back line, and with rookies, youngsters, and new arrivals were playing in front of the club’s new goalkeeper. One of those three games was also played a man down for 84 minutes. It was the worst start in club history but also a small sample size. Could Orlando have turned things around under Pareja? We’ll never know.

Under Perelman, the team has suffered losses of 5-0 (at Nashville), 6-0 (at LAFC), and 6-2 (at Cincinnati). Three of the worst outings in club history came in just a 14-game span and one of those was the team’s most recent game. The Lions also shipped two goals late in a 3-2 road loss to D.C. United, conceded three times to mainly MLS NEXT Pro players in a 4-3 U.S. Open Cup win against New England, gave up three goals in a half at Inter Miami before an astonishing and historic comeback win for their only road victory of the season to date, and conceded three times in a 4-3 home win against an offensively challenged Philadelphia Union team vying for the MLS Wooden Spoon.

There have been a few good performances as well, with the team’s most competent soccer coming in half a game against Miami, in a 4-1 home win over Charlotte, and in a 4-1 U.S. Open Cup win over an Atlanta United side that is struggling in its own right. But there hasn’t been enough quality to suggest that things are getting better, aside from the team’s offense at home. It’s only a matter of whether Orlando City scores enough goals to have a chance to win, because when the offense doesn’t score at least two times, this team hasn’t won a league game. It seems incapable of keeping a clean sheet, with even the one it kept in a U.S. Open Cup match against FC Naples perhaps coming only due to a lack of video review of a potential equalizer.

Perelman’s Lions are conceding an average of 2.75 goals per game in MLS play over 12 matches. That’s a much larger sample size than Pareja’s three games and Perelman has had a healthy Jansson and David Brekalo for most of his run and has had the benefit of Griffin Dorsey, Iago, and Braian Ojeda all having spent more minutes on the pitch with their teammates.

Even when it seemed the defense was starting to figure it out, having “only” conceded seven goals in a four-match span (all competitions) โ€” soaring to new heights of allowing just 1.75 goals per game in that time โ€” Orlando was embarrassingly torched for six goals by FC Cincinnati in the final match before the World Cup break.

Replacing Perelman doesn’t guarantee better defensive performances, but it’s hard to imagine them getting worse than the league-history-making pace with which the team is conceding goals through the first 15 matches.

While Moreira didn’t promise the job to Perelman or say he won’t hire a new coach, Orlando City fans will want improvement quickly when play resumes, because the remaining season is slipping away.

“We’re going to support Martin and stick with him,” Moreira said. “I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t monitoring the market and understanding the full landscape of available coaches. There are a lot of coaches who have been discussed, and we’re aware of every situation. I’m very active in my networking and my knowledge of the market, and we’re well aware of the coaching landscape and the status of coaches who may be available. But the decision right now is to keep Martin.”

To be fair to Moreira, there is no doubt some coaches that are perhaps on his radar may not become available until after the World Cup, and they may also want a break before diving into their next challenge. That would mean not coming in until at least September, at which time Griezmann may or may not be able to make a difference in the playoff race on a team that can’t stop leaking goals. The Frenchman’s presence, work rate from end line to end line, and ability to make those around him better can help, but only so much.

Other available coaches may be better suited coming into the club in the off-season to lay their foundation. As we saw with Wilfried Nancy’s disastrous spell at Celtic, sometimes you can’t fix or change things on the fly.

Moreira undoubtedly knows when those on his list of potential coaches might become available, and that may be the driving force for the moment in continuing with the status quo. And yet, Perelman may still yet prove to be the right coach in addition to being a good soldier for Orlando City by ultimately turning the ship around. It hasn’t looked likely yet, but it’s still possible.

At this point, there have been few signs Perelman can find any sustained success โ€” at least with the current roster. There is a lack of balance, and it’s hard to discern whether the players aren’t good enough, if Perelman’s system isn’t capable of providing a competent transition defense, if the pairing of Ojeda and Eduard Atuesta is simply not able to provide coverage to the back line, or if it’s a combination of some or all of those things.

One thing we know is that the team’s lack of success will continue if the defense doesn’t improve while maintaining the attacking capability it has shown since late April.

Moreira may have handcuffed himself to Perelman in a way that makes it hard for ownership to avoid changing general managers if things continue the way they’ve been. The team can’t just bounce around in positions 10 through 13 in the Eastern Conference and hope Griezmann can get the Lions over the hump. Defensive solutions must be found, especially on the road, where scoring goals is tougher, because the club isn’t on pace to just break the league’s record for goals conceded โ€” it is on pace to destroy the record. The Lions can’t keep getting embarrassed in every stadium not colored purple.

The coming months are among the most critical in club history, as they will dictate whether Orlando City remains a perennial playoff team or squanders one of the biggest signings in MLS history.

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