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Orlando City vs. Atletico San Luis, Leagues Cup: Final Score 1-1 as 10-man Lions Draw, Win Shootout

The Lions went down a man early but scored first, held on for a draw, and won the penalty shootout and the group.

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1 month ago

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City appeared to have an easy path to the knockout rounds entering its match against Atletico San Luis at Inter&Co Stadium in the final match of Group East 2 play in Leagues Cup. But a first-half red card while the game was still scoreless raised the degree of difficulty.

However, Ramiro Enrique’s late first-half goal and heroic defending for the final 45 minutes allowed the Lions (1-0-1, 5 points) to draw San Luis (0-1-1, 1 point) 1-1 and top the group. A 71st-minute goal by Rodrigo Dourado spoiled the clean sheet and the victory in one fell swoop, but the Lions got the last word by knocking the Liga MX side out of the competition with the draw and then winning the penalty shootout, 5-4, to claim the extra point.

“It was an excellent effort from our players,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “We want to recognize that heart and that willingness to do the right things is what identifies Orlando City, especially in the period that we have shared here with the fans in these four years. We have players who give everything up, and today was no exception.”

Pareja’s lineup was virtually unchanged from the side that spanked CF Montreal 4-1 nine days ago. The only swap was Ivan Angulo replacing Nico Lodeiro after serving his suspension for a red card in last year’s competition. Pedro Gallese took his usual spot in goal behind a back line of Kyle Smith, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena started in central midfield behind an attacking line of Angulo, Martin Ojeda, and Facundo Torres with Enrique up top.

Orlando City started the match brightly, getting forward with a lot of energy and flying around the San Luis penalty area. Cartagena took the game’s first shot in the second minute, driving an attempt from distance that took a deflection but gave San Luis goalkeeper Andres Sanchez no trouble. Two minutes later, Torres won the game’s first corner and the cross found Brekalo in front, but the Slovenian headed it just wide of the left post.

In the fifth minute, Enrique did well to dispossess San Luis defender Julio Dominguez in the penalty area, turning the visitors over. Torres picked up the loose ball and fired from the right but just missed wide of the left post.

San Luis got its first shot in the 14th minute and it nearly resulted in a goal. Vitinho sent a blast from the top of the area on target and Gallese made a diving save to keep it out. The visitors did nothing with the ensuing corner and Orlando cleared the danger. That first attack allowed the Liga MX side to settle into the game.

Cartagena was called for a foul in the 19th minute about 30 yards out from his own goal on the San Luis attacking right. The visitors took the free kick short to the middle and Oscar Macias fired from long range but the shot was always going over the bar.

The game turned in San Luis’ favor in the 27th minute when a turnover in Orlando’s attacking third resulted in Vitinho getting behind the defense in transition. Smith caught up to him just outside his own penalty area and committed the foul. Although he was initially given a yellow card, a quick check of the video led referee Mario Escobar to change the call. Smith was sent off for denial of a goal-scoring opportunity and Orlando City was down to 10 men.

Juan Manuel Sanabria hit the ensuing free kick into the wall. It came back to him and he fired again. This time the shot took a deflection off an Orlando player and went out for a corner. Before it did, Gallese tried to keep it from crossing the line, taking a chunk out of the wet turf and going down hard. After receiving treatment, he was able to continue.

Rather than make a substitution in the first half, Pareja redeployed his troops, moving Cartagena to center back between Jansson and Brekalo, and pushing Angulo into a left wingback role opposite Thorhallsson on the right.

“It is very relevant for us to have players with that versatility,” Pareja said. “Wilder has had a tremendous impact in the way we bounce back from from our slow start. Today was another night where he adapted to the needs of the team and he dropped to that position where he can give us that function as a center back, but at the same time with the intelligence that the position needs to be a midfielder also.”

The Lions did a good job of holding possession for a spell after the free kick and even won a couple of set pieces from distance but couldn’t do much with them.

Jansson gifted San Luis an opportunity with a misplaced backheel pass attempt in his own half in the 45th minute. The wayward pass turned the ball over and Mateo Klimowicz fired a blast from outside the box. Gallese got down and made the save. He bobbled the ball momentarily but none of the visitors were anywhere near him, so he was able to gather it up.

The Lions struck at the death of the first half. Orlando broke in transition with a series of quick passes. Araujo sent the ball forward to Enrique in the middle, and he in turn sent Ojeda up the left side. Ojeda sent in a gorgeous cross to Torres at the back post. A bit too wide to make an attempt on goal, Torres smartly headed it down, back across the box. Enrique ran onto it and slotted it past Sanchez to give the Lions the lead in the sixth minute of first-half stoppage. It was the Argentine’s sixth consecutive match with a goal across all competitions, breaking Daryl Dike’s club record of five.

Seconds later, the half was over.

Despite being a man down for a good chunk of the first half, Orlando City held the halftime advantage in possession (57.5%-42.5%), corners (3-2), and passing accuracy (86.8%-81.8%). Both teams attempted five shots and both put two attempts on target.

Rodrigo Schlegel replaced Jansson to start the second half, as the captain was on a yellow card.

San Luis started the second half with a lot more possession, looking to pull Orlando’s defense apart. Orlando was able to get forward a few times as well, but both teams struggled to create clear chances in the opening minutes of the second period.

The first good look came the visitors’ way in the 53rd minute. A ball into the area was headed on goal by Yan Phillipe but Gallese was able to stop the powerful attempt. Six minutes later, a shot from outside the box sailed over Gallese’s crossbar.

Second-half sub Franck Boli fired just wide of the left post under pressure from Araujo on the shot.

The Lions finally got a look at goal in the 64th minute off a corner kick. Ojeda’s cross picked out Cartagena but the Peruvian’s shot fizzed just inches over the bar and onto the roof of the net.

San Luis’ relentless pressure continued. Sanabria smashed a shot toward goal in the 65the minute, but Gallese made a diving save to his right to keep it out. A minute later, Benjamin Galdames made a nice play to cut inside on the attacking left and fired from a tight angle. Gallese had his near post covered and the shot banged off the top of the crossbar.

Perhaps Gallese’s best save came in the 69th minute on an absolute cannon blast by Vitinho from the right. The Peruvian made a diving save to knock it off the post at the last second.

However, the San Luis goal that always seemed likely finally came in the 71st minute. The visitors had been working the Orlando City defense side to side relentlessly and it finally paid off with a ball into the box that Dourado was able to head past Gallese to tie the game.

San Luis won a parade of corner kicks down the stretch of the game, and Orlando defended in numbers. Dourado sent another headed attempt wide in the 75th minute.

After surviving several San Luis corner kicks, Angulo made a fantastic play to get out of a crowd of players along the right sideline with the ball, jump-starting the break. The ball ended up on the left with second-half sub Rafael Santos, who smashed a shot that deflected out for a corner. Schlegel got his head to the cross on the set piece but sent his shot wide of the left post in the 88th minute.

From there, Orlando saw out the final seconds of normal time and four minutes of stoppage time to secure the draw and clinch first place in the group.

The strong second half while up a man allowed San Luis to finish with the advantage in possession (54%-46%), shots (23-9), shots on target (6-2), corners (10-5), and passing accuracy (87.5%-85.6%).

Because Leagues Cup matches go to shootouts after draws, the teams went to the penalty spot to determine which side got the extra point, despite it having no impact on the standings. Orlando would have finished first regardless of the outcome, and San Luis could not catch second-place CF Montreal with the extra point.

Vitinho shot first for the visitors, and even though his shot hit the crossbar, it caught the underside and bounced down past the line to give San Luis the advantage after one shooter. Lodeiro answered and the teams swapped successful penalties in the second and third rounds. Sebastien Salles-Lamonge and Cristiano Piccini hit perfect penalties for San Luis, despite Gallese guessing the correct direction both times.

Duncan McGuire, who had come on for Enrique late in the second half — just hours after landing in Orlando from participating in the Olympics in France — and Wilder Cartagena scored to make it 3-3 after three rounds.

The fourth round proved to be decisive. Leo Bonatini hit his shot toward the left post, but Gallese again guessed correctly, and this time he was able to palm the shot away before it could cross the line.

“For us, a lot of the studying that we would do during the week on penalties just wasn’t there for us,” Gallese said. “We thought that they would only really have two guys that have taken for them historically, and the other ones, it wasn’t what I was able to study. It was just kind of what I felt on the direction they would go.”

“Important for us to have Pedro back in his level,” Pareja said.

Rafael Santos buried his penalty to send it to the fifth round with his team leading, 4-3. Franck Boli connected to put the pressure on Orlando’s fifth shooter, who was Thorhallsson. The Icelandic fullback ran up quickly and hit his shot hard. Second-half San Luis goalkeeper Cesar Lopez got a hand to the shot but couldn’t keep it out, deflecting it into the roof of the net from below, giving the Lions the win.

“For us it was important to win it in front of our fans,” Pareja said of the shootout. “For us it was important to keep this momentum. Now we’re preparing for the next one.”

The Lions will next host another Liga MX side — Cruz Azul, the second-place side in Group East 4 — on Friday at a time to be announced.

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Opinion

Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024

Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.

Published

3 days ago

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September 6, 2024

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?

The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.

For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.

Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.

It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.

Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.

Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.

Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.

Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.

Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/6/24

Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.

Published

3 days ago

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September 6, 2024

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Image courtesy of Victor Tan / New Day Review

Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!

Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC

The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.

Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement

American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.

In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.

USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday

The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.

Keeping Up With International Soccer

San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.

The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.

CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.

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That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season

A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.

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4 days ago

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September 5, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.

The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:

  • Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
  • Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
  • At Columbus (1.96, second)
  • At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
  • Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
  • At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
  • Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)

As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.

In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.

In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)

New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.

A few takeaways from this chart:

  • I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
  • That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
  • Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
  • Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.

During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:

Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.

Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.

No, that loss still stunk.

Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:

That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):

Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.

I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.

While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.

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