The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

The Orlando Pride (14-0-5, 47 points) continued their unbeaten run and winning streak by defeating the Chicago Red Stars (7-10-2, 23 points) 1-0 at SeatGreek Stadium in Bridgeview, IL. Marta scored the game’s only goal in the 37th minute with a laser from outside of the box.

Pride Head Coach Seb Hines deployed the same lineup that beat NJ/NY Gotham FC 2-0 on Sept. 1. The back line in front of Anna Moorhouse was Kerry Abello, Kylie Strom, Emily Sams, and Cori Dyke. Angelina and Haley McCutcheon were the defensive midfielders behind Adriana, Marta, and Summer Yates with Barbra Banda up top.

This game was similar to the one between the two teams last year in the same stadium. The Pride dominated the game in every way from start to finish with the hosts rarely getting a chance at goal. The difference was last year the Pride were unable to convert and the Red Stars scored on a counter attack to steal three points. This time it was the Pride who scored the lone goal and took home the win.

“We reminded the players of the heartbreak of last year where I think we recorded maybe 25 shots at goal. Controlled the whole game, but fell short with a 1-0 defeat,” Hines said about his pregame message. “Just making sure that we scored the first goal was really important tonight. Having the calmness to play and be patient and create more opportunities.”

The Pride created the first chance in the fourth minute when Camryn Biegalski blocked Abello’s cross out for a corner kick. The ensuing set piece was headed out, but Chicago was unable to clear. After Banda tried to create something, it ended up with Marta on the left side of the box. The Pride captain was aiming for the far post but missed wide.

The second chance for the Pride came in the sixth minute when Banda made a long run into the Red Stars third of the field before playing Marta forward. Marta played the ball back for Adriana at the top of the box and the Brazilian laid it off for her club and national teammate Angelina. Taking a touch to create space, Angelina sent her shot into the arms of Chicago goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher.

In the 13th minute, Adriana made a move in the box to beat Taylor Malham before going down. There was a brief break in the action as the video assistant referee took a look but didn’t determine the contact was worthy of a penalty.

When play resumed, a cross into the box was cleared by Natalia Kuikka. However, it went right to Banda. The Pride strike settled the ball before shooting, enabling Kuikka to close her down and block the shot.

Abello fouled Jenna Bike in the 19th minute, giving the Red Stars a set piece. Swanson and Julia Grosso stood over the ball with Swanson taking it. Her free kick went through several players, took a brief touch by Angelina, and landed at the foot of Bike. The midfielder was open for a shot but missed the target.

Banda received a nice ball across the field from Yates in the 22nd minute and used her speed to sprint past Malham before shooting for the far post. Naeher was unable to reach the shot, but it skipped just wide.

The Pride had another good chance in the 28th minute when McCutcheon played a great ball for Adriana behind the back line. The midfielder caught up to the ball before it crossed the end line and played a pass for Banda in the six-yard box. Unfortunately, it was a bit too far for the striker.

In the 37th minute. Marta ensured the good chances the Pride created weren’t wasted. Adriana was fouled by Jameese Joseph, winning a free kick in the opposing third. Bike was the first to the ball, but her clearance attempt only went to Marta near the top of the box. The Pride captain took a touch inside before sending a rocket into the bottom far corner of the goal to give her team a 1-0 lead.

“I read a little bit about the situation from the beginning. You know, they were giving us a lot of space to turn, to look up, and I was looking for this situation,” Marta said about her goal. “Have the space and have the time to take a shot. And then I have a little bit of luck, but I was with this in my mind all the time. If I have the chance, I’m going to try it.”

In the first minute of stoppage time, Marta made a run towards the end line before playing it to the top of the box. Yates was unable to get in position to shoot and Adriana left it for Angelina behind her. It was a good attempt by the defensive midfielder but went just wide.

At halftime, the Pride had more possession (63%-37%), shots (7-1), shots on target (2-0), corner kicks (6-0), crosses (17-2), and better passing accuracy (80%-69%).

The Pride nearly created a chance in the 48th minute when McCutcheon took the ball away from Hannah Anderson in the Chicago third. She touched the ball forward for Banda who carried it into the box. Kuikka did well to stand her ground and made a quality challenge, knocking the ball away from the Pride striker.

The Pride were living dangerously as the game neared the hour mark. In the 54th minute, Malham sent a ball forward into the box that was missed by Sams. Bike was making a run behind Abello but couldn’t get on the end of it.

A minute later, a poor pass from Dyke to Angelina was intercepted by Joseph. The forward played a give-and-go with Bike, sending her into the box. Fortunately, a heavy touch resulted in her fouling Abello and ending the attack.

In the 57th minute, a poor clearance attempt by Malham gave the Pride a corner kick. The set piece ended up with Abello, who found Banda to her left. The striker took Biegalski to the end line before trying to beat Naeher from a very tight angle. While the shot didn’t have much of a chance, Naeher knocked it out for a corner kick. The Pride couldn’t create anything from the ensuing set piece, enabling the Red Stars to clear.

Hines made three changes in the 61st minute. Carson Pickett, Julie Doyle, and Evelina Duljan came into the game for Abello, Adriana, and Yates.

A Pride throw-in in the 64th minute turned into Chicago’s first shot on target. Cari Roccaro and Angelina collided going for a loose ball, which ended up at the feet of Swanson. The Pride had kept Swanson quiet in the game, but the Red Stars leader tried to make something happen with a long shot. However, she sent it straight to Moorhouse and it was an easy save for the Pride goalkeeper.

Duljan looked to make her presence known in the 69th minute when she won possession from Biegalski in the Chicago third of the field. Marta took the ball and played it between the legs of Kuikka to Banda in the box. After conceding possession, Biegalski came back to challenge Banda, resulting in both players requiring medical attention. Banda was able to continue, but Biegalski had to leave the game.

During the stoppage, Hines made his fourth substitution. In a like-for-like change, Morgan Gautrat came on for Angelina. It was a homecoming for Gautrat, who spent six years with the Red Stars from 2017-2022.

The Pride nearly doubled their lead in the 75th minute when Doyle found Pickett making an overlapping run. The left back’s cross found the head of Banda, who tried to send it over Naeher and into the corner of the goal. Her header was over Naeher, but Kuikka was able to head the ball off the goal line and onto the roof of the net.

 In the 78th minute, Kuikka headed a Marta throw-in for Banda over the end line for a Pride corner kick. The set piece by Pickett found the head of Banda and the redirection was on target, but Malham cleared it off the line. Banda got her head to the clearance for another attempt on goal and it was cleared off the line again, this time by Tatumn Milazzo.

Pickett found Banda in the box in the 81st minute, this time between three defenders. Anderson ended up marking the striker and Banda turned her to get a shot off. However, she was unable to get over the ball, sending it over the crossbar.

The Red Stars nearly had a breakaway in the 89th minute when Chardonnay Curran sent Ludmila between Sams and Strom. It was a race between Ludmila and Moorhouse with the Pride goalkeeper getting there first. The two collided and Moorhouse required attention but was able to continue.

Chicago took their second shot on target in the fourth minute of stoppage time after Gautrat pulled Curran down and was booked. Swanson’s free kick into the box was cleared by Pickett but back to Swanson with nearly everyone in the Pride box. The attacker dribbled past Gautrat and took a long-distance shot that went right to Moorhouse, who made an easy save.

The Red Stars continued to push everyone forward in an attempt to get a last-second equalizer, but the Pride were able to hold them off and secure the 1-0 win.

It was a dominant performance and a deserved three points as the Pride ended the game with more possession (61%-39%), shots (14-3), shots on target (4-2), corner kicks (12-0), crosses (28-5), and better passing accuracy (79%-67%).

“Every game is a challenge, right? Obviously, Chicago trying to keep themselves in the playoff positions. We obviously want to keep ourselves at the top of the table. So every game, there’s always something on the line,” Hines said about the game. “I thought first half we did really well. I thought we got ourselves in really good positions to try and score the goal, but fell short. Obviously Marta, unbelievable finish and goal, and that just epitomizes her performance today. I thought she was tremendous. And then, same as a lot of other games, you know, backs against the wall late on in the game, Chicago trying to push to get an equalizer, but the team stayed strong and managed to get the three points over the line.”

The clean sheet is the Pride’s 10th of the season, extending their team record. They’re now on three behind the league record, held jointly by the 2017 North Carolina Courage and 2021 Portland Thorns. Moorhouse has been in net for all 10, putting her one behind the league record, set by Adriana Franch in 2017 and matched by Casey Murphy in 2021.

“I say every week, it’s not just the goalkeeper and the backline, it takes everyone,” Hines said about the 10 clean sheets. “But there’s some really brave moments. There’s players getting tight, not allowing the cross to come in, and then if that does happen, then getting first contact, set in contact, and then having the calmness to play out of pressure as well. I think it’s all important elements to our game. But most importantly, I think you have to build a foundation with your defensive structure. I think, historically, Orlando hasn’t always had that, and so we’ve really pinpointed that we need to be defensively solid and not give the opponent too many opportunities, which the players have done extremely well all season long.”

“I just want to soak that in because last year, it felt like we were so close and sometimes it would just, we were not quite there. And I think that this year, we have been so incredibly focused, we’ve been so incredibly organized, and we just have the grit and the willingness to grind out wins and shutouts and all things,” McCutcheon added. “And I’m just incredibly proud of that stat much more than scoring goals. I think that just speaks volumes to our team and our character.”

The win extends the Pride’s unbeaten run to 20 games, dating back to the final regular season game last season. The run ties the league record including playoffs, matching the Washington Spirit’s 20-game unbeaten run in 2021 and 2022.

Additionally, the Pride are now on a six-game win streak, their second six-game win streak this season. They’re now only three wins shy of the single-season record for wins a season, currently held by 2018 Courage.

Their 47 points place them six points clear of the Spirit for the league’s top spot with seven games left. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and are looking to seal the NWSL Shield, which includes the top seed in the postseason.

That quest continues Friday night when the Pride return home to face the Kansas City Current.

Welcome to your match thread as the Orlando Pride (13-0-5, 44 points) head back out on the road to face the Chicago Red Stars (7-9-2, 23 points). This is the second and final meeting between the two teams in the 2024 NWSL regular season.

Here’s everything you need to know about tonight’s game.

History

The Pride and Red Stars have played every season since Orlando’s entrance into the NWSL except 2020. The teams have played 19 games, with the Pride going 5-12-2. The Pride have been better against the Red Stars in Illinois than in Orlando with an away record of 4-5-0 against tonight’s opponent.

The last time the Pride and Red Stars met was on March 29 in Orlando. The Pride took the lead early through a Taylor Malham own goal, but Mallory Swanson equalized in the 64th minute, resulting in a 1-1 draw.

The first meeting of 2023 was on May 27 in Illinois. Orlando dominated the entire 90 minutes, with Chicago only getting two chances on its home field. But the Pride struggled to hit the target, and Yuki Nagasato’s goal was the difference as the Pride fell 1-0.  The Aug. 20 matchup was the debut of Pride center back Rafaelle and the Brazilian scored in the 15th minute to give Orlando the lead. The hosts continued their attack, resulting in four more goals. Messiah Bright scored a pair, new signing Mariana Larroquette scored her first Pride goal, and Mikayla Cluff capped off the night with a goal as the Pride won 5-0.

The first meeting of 2022 took place on May 22 in Orlando. Sarah Griffin gave the visitors the lead, and Bianca St. Georges and Swanson made it 3-0 Chicago. It appeared as though the Red Stars would run away with the game, but the final 10 minutes saw three goals and two penalties for an exciting finish. Sydney Leroux missed a penalty, but Amy Turner scored the Pride’s first goal late. Swanson converted her penalty moments later, and Leah Pruitt scored her first goal for the Pride a minute after that in a 4-2 Red Stars win. The second meeting of the 2022 season was on June 12 in Illinois. Swanson capitalized on an early Pride turnover and the Red Stars held on for the 1-0 win.

The teams met three times during the 2021 season, but didn’t play until Aug. 8 in Illinois. Jodie Taylor and Leroux scored for the Pride before the half. The 2-0 win ended a six-game winless streak and was the first NWSL win for interim head coach Becky Burleigh.

The second meeting was Oct. 13 in Bridgeview, a rescheduled game that was originally supposed to take place Oct. 2. Kealia Watt scored early and the Red Stars defended that lead for 84 minutes on their way to a 1-0 result. The teams met again Oct. 29, 2021, in Orlando in the final game of the regular season. The Red Stars controlled the game but the Pride held off the Chicago attack for 65 minutes, at which point Watt scored the lone goal in a 1-0 Chicago win.

The Pride and Red Stars didn’t play in the 2020 Fall Series, so the last meeting prior to 2021 came in 2019. The first game was June 30 at Exploria Stadium. Goals by Chioma Ubogagu and Marta were topped by a Sam Kerr hat trick as the Red Stars won 3-2. The second game was on Aug. 21 in Bridgeview. The Pride took a 2-0 lead with goals by Rachel Hill and Ubogagu. Tierna Davidson cut the lead in half for Chicago, but it wasn’t enough as the Pride won 2-1. 

The third meeting in 2021 came on Sept. 11 in Orlando. Casey Short stole the game for Chicago with the game’s lone goal five minutes into second-half injury time as the Red Stars won, 1-0.

The 2018 NWSL season saw the Pride and Red Stars meet three times. On May 2 in Bridgeview, Hill and Ubogagu scored in a 2-0 Pride win. They met in the same location May 26, with a Leroux brace and goals by Hill, Alex Morgan, and Dani Weatherholt leading to a 5-2 Pride win. The Red Stars were led by a Kerr brace, resulting in a 3-1 victory over the Pride on Aug. 25 in Orlando in the third meeting of 2018.

The Pride and Red Stars met three times in 2017 — the first year that they played that many games against each other. A Christen Press goal on July 1 lifted Chicago to a 1-0 win. On July 22 in Bridgeview, a Press brace led her team to a 2-1 win. The final meeting came a week later in Orlando. Morgan and Sofia Huerta traded goals in a 1-1 draw.

The Red Stars won both meetings in 2016 by 1-0 final scores.

Overview

The Pride have been on fire the whole season and refuse to cool off. Following the team setting an NWSL record with eight straight wins, it drew two games. While it looked like the Pride might be coming back to earth, they’ve now won five consecutive games, dating back to June 21.

The most recent win came on Sept. 1 against NJ/NY Gotham FC, with Adriana taking the plaudits. The midfielder scored in the sixth minute and again in the 19th minute to double the advantage. Gotham only put two shots on target in the 90 minutes and neither caused Anna Moorhouse any trouble, assuring the Pride’s 2-0 win.

The 2024 season has been an up-and-down year for the Red Stars. Just when it looks like they’ll start a run to climb up the standings, they stumble. Wins over San Diego Wave FC and the Houston Dash heading into the Olympic break set the Red Stars on the right path, but they’ve lost their first two games since the league’s return. They currently sit in seventh but only two points ahead of Bay FC and Angel City FC for the final playoff spot.

As you might expect, Swanson has led the team offensively since returning from injury that caused the star to miss nearly all of the 2023 campaign. The attacker leads her team in goals, with seven, and assists, with three. Second-year forward Ally Schlegel is second on the team with four goals, and Penelope Hocking had four for the Red Stars before being traded to Bay FC on Aug. 31.

The most effective method of stopping the Red Stars tonight is the same as it’s been for the past few years. Limiting Swanson’s time on the ball and her ability to get into dangerous spaces will make Chicago’s attack much weaker and enable the Pride to control possession, although that’s easier said than done.

Despite the Red Stars being midtable in 2022 and finishing last in 2023, the Pride have struggled on the road against Chicago recently, losing their last two games in Bridgeview by 1-0 scores. The most recent win in the Chicago suburb was on Aug. 8, 2021, and they’ll be looking to flip that trend.

“I think they’ll be looking to bounce back from recent results. They’re in that playoff position right now and they want to maintain that position, but obviously we’ve got our own objectives as well,” Pride Head Coach Seb Hines said about tonight’s game. “We want to keep that unbeaten run going. We always know it’s going to be a difficult environment to play at, so we’re looking to change a little bit of history, because it’s been a while since we’ve won there. I think this group is fully prepared for what’s at stake in this game.”

The Pride have six players out tonight due to injury, including Grace Chanda (thigh), Simone Charley (ankle), Luana (illness), Sofia Manner (concussion), Megan Montefusco (heel), and Rafaelle (foot). Additionally, Ally Lemos (USA) is away on international duty and Mariana Larroquette (thigh) is questionable.

Chicago will be without Ava Cook (knee), Sam Staab (Achilles), Maxi Rall (abdomen), and Sophie Jones (knee).

Official Lineups

Orlando Pride (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Anna Moorhouse.

Defenders: Kerry Abello, Kylie Strom, Emily Sams, Cori Dyke.

Defensive Midfielders: Haley McCutcheon, Angelina.

Midfielders: Summer Yates, Marta, Adriana.

Forward: Barbra Banda.

Bench: McKinley Crone, Evelina Duljan, Celia, Carrie Lawrence, Brianna Martinez, Carson Pickett, Julie Doyle, Morgan Gautrat, Ally Watt.

Chicago Red Stars (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper: Alyssa Naeher.

Defenders: Taylor Malham, Hannah Anderson, Natalia Kuikka, Cameron Biegalski.

Midfielders: Julia Grosso, Cari Roccaro, Julie Bianchi.

Forwards: Jameese Joseph, Mallory Swanson, Jenna Bike.

Bench: Ludmila, Mackenzie Wood, Tatumn Milazzo, Chardonnay Curran, Bea Franklin, Leilanni Nesbeth, Sarah Griffith, Ally Cook, Ally Schlegel.

Referees

REF: Eric Tattersall.
AR1: Noah Kenyawani.
AR2: Art Arustamyan.
4TH: Peter Bernardy.
VAR: Alyssa Nichols.
AVAR: Rhett Hammil.

How to Watch

Match Time: 6 p.m.

Venue: SeatGeek Stadium — Bridgeview, IL.

TV: Bally Sports Florida.

Streaming: NWSL+.

Twitter: For live updates and rapid reaction, follow @TheManeLand and the Orlando Pride’s official Twitter feed (@ORLPride).

Enjoy the match. Go Pride!