Welcome to your match thread as the Orlando Pride (14-0-5, 47 points) welcome the Kansas City Current (11-3-5, 38 points) to Orlando in a matchup between two of the best teams in the NWSL. This is the second and final time the two teams will face off in the 2024 NWSL regular season.

Here’s everything you need to know about tonight’s game.

History

The Current joined the NWSL in 2021 after the team’s ownership group bought the Utah Royals and relocated the club to Kansas City. It’s the second NWSL team in the city — FC Kansas City played there from 2013 to 2017 before moving to Utah — and the team was known as NWSL Kansas City for its inaugural season.

The Pride and Current have played seven games against each other, all in the regular season. Orlando has a 3-2-2 record in the series and are 1-1-1 at home.

The two teams last met on July 6 in Kansas City. Barbra Banda gave the Pride the lead, but the hosts responded two minutes later through Temwa Chawinga. Despite a second yellow card for Carrie Lawrence dropping the Pride to 10 players just before halftime, Marta converted a second-half penalty, lifting her team to a 2-1 win.

The first time the teams met in 2023 was on April 23 at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City. It was scoreless after an hour before the Current got a quick flurry of goals by Debinha and CeCe Kizer, lifting Kansas City to a 2-0 win. On June 23, 2023 in Orlando, the visitors took the lead through Debinha, and Kizer doubled the advantage just before halftime. Marta converted a penalty to pull one back, but the Pride fell 2-1.

Their first meeting in 2022 came on July 31 in Kansas City while the Pride were in the middle of their seven-game unbeaten run. The Pride opened the scoring when Erika Tymrak found the head of Celia and doubled the lead just after halftime through Julie Doyle. The Current stormed back with goals by Elyse Bennett and Kizer, pulling out a 2-2 draw.

The first meeting in 2022 was on May 14 at Exploria Stadium. The Pride took the lead early in the second half on a Gunny Jonsdottir goal. Bennett scored late in the second half, and the visitors appeared to win the game a minute into injury time through Kristen Hamilton. However, Kylie Strom was pulled down in the box five minutes later, resulting in a penalty. With Marta injured, the only player willing to step up to take the penalty was center back Toni Pressley, who drilled the ball into the roof of the net, pulling out a 2-2 draw.

The teams played twice during the 2021 NWSL season, with the first game occurring May 30 at Exploria Stadium. Courtney Petersen found Alex Morgan just outside the six-yard box and the striker headed in the game’s lone goal as the Pride won 1-0.

The Pride and Current met again on June 23 at Legends Field in Kansas City. The Pride had a weakened squad as then-coach Marc Skinner left some key players at home, preparing to lose them to the Olympics. It looked to be costly when Mariana Larroquette gave the hosts the lead late in first-half injury time. But the Pride responded well. Two minutes after Larroquette’s goal, Sydney Leroux’s shot took a deflection off a defender and went in to make it 1-1. Shortly after halftime, Leroux scored on a great individual effort from just outside the box. Marta then scored the goal of the game, beating Kansas City goalkeeper Abby Smith from the top of the center circle, lifting the Pride to a 3-1 win.

Overview

The first meeting this year between the Pride and Current was a matchup of the only two undefeated teams in the NWSL. Since then, the teams have gone in different directions. The Pride won the next three games, extending their winning streak to six and their unbeaten run to a league-record 20 games.

The growth of the Pride was seen in their most recent contest against the Chicago Red Stars away from home. Last year, the team couldn’t find the back of the net despite dominating play for 90 minutes. The Red Stars scored on a counterattack, pulling out a 1-0 win. The Pride learned from those mistakes Sunday night when Marta gave the visitors the lead in the 37th minute. Pride Head Coach Seb Hines addressed last year’s game prior to the start and they were able to keep Chicago off the score sheet, winning 1-0.

The most impressive part of the Pride’s season has been their defense. The back line has seen multiple changes, including an Olympic injury to center back Rafaelle, causing Emly Sams to move inside and rookie Cori Dyke starting the last three games at right back. However, the teamwide defending has kept their opponents from scoring, resulting in the Pride conceding the fewest goals in the league.

The last meeting between the Pride and Current was the last game before the Olympic break. The Current had extended their unbeaten run to 17 games, a new league regular-season record. The Pride’s win in Kansas City matched that feat and they surpassed it the following game.

The Current have struggled since the Olympics ended, losing their first two games — 4-1 to the Washington Spirit and 2-1 to the North Carolina Courage. They returned home on Sept. 7, where they beat the last-place Utah Royals 1-0. 

Despite their recent struggles, the Current are still in third place and contenders for the NWSL Shield, sitting three points behind the Spirit and nine points behind the Pride. They’ve had the most potent attack this season, scoring a league-high 43 goals. The biggest offensive threat has been Chawinga, who leads the league in goals this year with 15 in 19 games. She’s three ahead of second-place Banda, who has scored 12 goals in 15 games. The 15 goals scored by Chawinga is 10 ahead of Bia Zaneratto and Lo’eau LaBonta, who have five goals each.

In addition to scoring frequently, Chawinga has been the primary provider for the Current, tallying a team-high six assists, one ahead of Vanessa DiBernardo. Zaneratto has also been a significant factor in goal contributions, adding four assists to her five goals.

Stopping Chawinga will be the primary task for the Pride tonight. Their 12 goals conceded this year is the fewest in the league and they’re coming off a similar game where they had to shut down a player who posed the most significant threat. The Pride kept Chicago’s Mallory Swanson off the score sheet and the attacker only took two long-distance shots.

“Competitive game. Both teams want to go after it,” Hines said about tonight’s game. “I think, for us, like you said, quick turnaround from the game on Sunday against Chicago to playing against Kansas, who are also trying to win the shield this season. So I expect a competitive game on Friday. We have to focus on ourselves. We’re obviously coming to our own place in front of our own fans, and we want to continue that momentum. For us, it’s another game. It’s the next game in the schedule, and we want to continue to keep winning and keep that separation from the pack that’s trying to chase us.”

The Pride are without seven players tonight due to injury, including Grace Chanda (thigh), Simone Charley (ankle), Mariana Larroquette (thigh), Luana (illness), Sofia Manner (concussion), Megan Montefusco (heel), and Rafaelle (foot). Additionally, Ally Lemos is with the U-20 USWNT at the 2024 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup.

Kansas City is without Alex Pfeiffer (knee), Gabrielle Robinson (knee), and Mallory Weber (knee) due to injury. Claire Hutton is on international duty with the U.S. U-20s and Michelle Cooper (ankle) is listed as questionable.

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Projected Lineups

Orlando Pride (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Anna Moorhouse.

Defenders: Kerry Abello, Kylie Strom, Emily Sams, Cori Dyke.

Defensive Midfielders: Haley McCutcheon, Angelina.

Midfielders: Summer Yates, Marta, Adriana.

Forward: Barbra Banda.

Kansas City Current (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper: Almuth Schult.

Defenders: Izzy Rodriguez, Kayla Sharples, Alana Cook, Hailie Mace.

Midfielders: Bayley Feist, Vanessa DiBernardo, Lo’eau LaBonta.

Forwards: Debhina, Temwa Chawinga, Nichelle Prince.

Referees

REF: Alyssa Nichols.
AR1: Brian Marshall.
AR2: Ben Rigel.
4TH: Alejo Calume.
VAR: Shawn Tehini.
AVAR: Matthew Rodman.

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How to Watch

Match Time: 8 p.m.

Venue: Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando.

TV: None.

Streaming: Amazon Prime Video.

Twitter: For live updates and rapid reaction, follow @TheManeLand and the Orlando Pride’s official Twitter feed (@ORLPride).

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Enjoy the match. Go Pride!

The Orlando Pride announced this afternoon that the club has signed midfielder Morgan Gautrat to a new contract. The deal runs through the 2025 NWSL season with a mutual option for 2026.

“Morgan has come in and proven to be a great addition to our club. She has quickly become someone that our younger players can look to for guidance and advice off the pitch, while also putting in strong, consistent performances on it,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Morgan knows how to win at the club and international level and has helped bring that knowledge and professionalism into our locker room. We are very excited to have Morgan with us for the future.”

The Pride acquired Gautrat in a trade with the Kansas City Current on Jan. 11. In exchange for the veteran defensive midfielder and $50,000 in allocation money, the Pride sent a 2024 international spot to the Current.

Gautrat has made 14 appearances in all competitions this season for the Pride (13 regular season and three NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup), with nine starts and recorded 711 minutes. She started alongside Angelina when Haley McCutcheon was at right back, but has split time with the Brazilian in recent weeks as both players have spent time on the injured list.

“I am so excited to be staying here with the Orlando Pride for the next couple of years. What we have here and the culture that is being created is something so special and I am thrilled to be a part of it,” Gautrat said in the club’s press release. “Growing up playing here in Florida and now playing here professionally has only solidified that Orlando is home. I am grateful for the opportunity to continue to represent this badge and will work as hard as I can to help the club achieve all of its goals.”

Gautrat was the first overall pick of the 2015 NWSL Draft by the Houston Dash out of the University of Virginia. She went on to play for the Chicago Red Stars, French side Olympique Lyonnais, and the Current before joining the Pride.

Internationally, Gautrat represented the United States at the 2010 U-17 FIFA Women’s World Cup and the 2012 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup. The St. Simons Island, GA, native made her senior team debut on June 15, 2013, making 88 appearances for her country with eight goals and 11 assists. She was part of the 2015 and 2019 United States teams that won back-to-back World Cup titles.

What It Means for Orlando

The Pride spent the last couple of years in a full rebuild, replacing aging veterans with young players. They narrowly missed out on the playoffs in 2023, spurring the feeling that they could compete this year. For this reason, they brought in several veterans to fill out the lineup, including Gautrat.

While Gautrat hasn’t been a regular starter for the Pride, the depth she provides the team has been valuable, especially when Angelina was injured. She’s currently behind Angelina and McCutcheon on the depth chart, but will slide into the starting role when either is injured, McCutcheon is needed on the back line, or when Angelina is away on international duty with Brazil.

The midfielder has had some trouble with injuries the past few years, contributing to her absence from the national team and her trade from Kansas City. Those problems have arisen at times this year when she suffered a lower leg injury and a concussion. However, she’s been healthy for most of the season and provides a veteran presence in a young locker room, making her a valuable part of the 2025 squad.

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!